A look at Enrollment and
Retention Trends and Challenges
in the Midwest US
Brian Mikesell – VP, Market Solutions
Agenda
• Top 10 Mega-Trends in Higher Education
• What is on a student’s (and parent’s) mind?
• Enrollment Trends in this ...
3
Progress & SucceedEngage & EnrollPlan & Learn
Searching/creating short list
Information gathering
Deciding next steps
Co...
Top 10 Megatrends
1. Economy recovering
2. Students as powerful and knowledgeable consumers
3. College affordability / una...
5
Economy is Recovering
• Unemployment is dropping – 4 year low
• Job openings increasing – most since May 2008 (3.9
mill)...
• Employers are struggling to find skilled applicants!
• Postsecondary credential as a job requirement is
higher than ever...
Summary
• Economy improving  awesome
• Job availability  awesome
• Jobs that require a degree – increasing  awesome
• P...
Mega-Trends Details
1. Non-Traditional is the new Traditional – fewer than
20% of 20 million enrolled are 18-24 yrs old en...
Is it worth it?
• Students are skeptical, frugal and demanding
• Decisions: choosing major carefully, starting at a
commun...
College Attendance Decisions
10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163268/americans-say-graduates-
jobs-status-key-college-choice....
Past
Present
Future
Your Region
11
Enrollment Trends
12
College Enrollment Falls as Economy Recovers
July 25, 2013
…signs point to 2013-14 being the year when traditional four...
• Data for every college and university in the U.S.
• Applicants, Admits, Enrolled – 2003-2012
13
All Schools
4 yr public/private not for profit
14
College attendance began a steep climb from 15.2 million in 1999 to 20.4...
Forecasting
Trends will continue through 2020
15
Our projections indicate that the era of annually increasing
graduating c...
Total HS Students Graduates By State
(08-09 to 19-20)
16
State %
WI -10%
IA -6%
MN -6%
MI -19%
MO -7%
OH -7%
IL -6%
IN -2%...
Share Non-White HS Students By State
(08-09 to 19-20)
17
State 09 to 19 % Diff
IA 10-17 +7
MN 17-23 +6
WI 17-21 +4
NE 17-2...
19
Keep who we’ve got!
A new focus?
25%
of all students
are taking 15+
credit hours to
graduate in four
years
19%
As a res...
Personal Trainer
What should I
• Keep doing…
• Stop doing…
• Start doing…
20
Noel Levitz Higher Ed Benchmark Polls (2013):...
Keep Doing (effective and many doing)
• Campus open house events / campus visit days (1-3)
• Encouraging ‘apply now’ on ad...
Stop Doing (many doing but not effective)
• Asking current students/alumni for applicant referrals (1,2)
• Online college ...
Start Doing (effective and not many doing)
• Campus visit events or off campus meetings or events
designed for HS guidance...
Top 5 modes of communication
24
Bold = < 25% using
Volume of Contact by Stage
25
Top 5 Internal Operations (4 yr only)
26
Four-year private Four-year public
Outsource student search CRM
CRM Funnel tracki...
Keep Doing (effective and many doing)
27
• Academic support program (1-3)
• Tutoring (1-3)
• Work experiences in their int...
Stop Doing (many doing but not effective)
• Maintaining contact with students who are leaving (1-3)
• Identifying re-entry...
Start Doing (effective and not many doing)
• Mandatory advising (1-3)
• Advising by professional staff/faculty, one-on-one...
1. Performance funding – funding tied to progression
2. Corequisite Remediation – parallel remedial help
3. Full-time is 1...
Top Internal Operations
31
Top Internal Operations
Identify incoming students strengths, weaknesses, needs, and
concerns
E...
“If something can't go on forever, it will stop.”
32
Herbert Stein
Economist
The pattern of the last few decades, in which...
Summary
The next 8-10 years are going to be very different than
the last 15 years
Sticking to what once worked…will not wo...
Questions?
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10 #HigherEd Megatrends to Watch

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From factors contributing to decreased enrollment at campuses across the midwest to patterns college administrators are seeing with summer bridge and remedial programs, explore 10 gamechangers transforming the higher education landscape.

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10 #HigherEd Megatrends to Watch

  1. 1. A look at Enrollment and Retention Trends and Challenges in the Midwest US Brian Mikesell – VP, Market Solutions
  2. 2. Agenda • Top 10 Mega-Trends in Higher Education • What is on a student’s (and parent’s) mind? • Enrollment Trends in this Region • Personal Trainer 2
  3. 3. 3 Progress & SucceedEngage & EnrollPlan & Learn Searching/creating short list Information gathering Deciding next steps Connecting with institutions Requesting info/applying Enrolling Internship Graduation Getting a job Paying off loans Marketing and brand awareness Analyzing class lists Predicting enrollment numbers Beginning recruitment process Communicating with students Reviewing applications Shaping incoming class Retention rates Completion rates Increased funding and recurring revenue STUDENTSINSTITUTIONS 38 40 21 800,000 106,603 27,852 20,053 72%
  4. 4. Top 10 Megatrends 1. Economy recovering 2. Students as powerful and knowledgeable consumers 3. College affordability / unaffordability 4. Non-traditional student as the new traditional 5. Decreased enrollments / increased competition 6. College completion / Excessive time in school 7. Competency-based education 8. Too little too late: remediation and bridge programs 9. Big classes and big data 10. Role of Federal / State and shifting funding models 4
  5. 5. 5 Economy is Recovering • Unemployment is dropping – 4 year low • Job openings increasing – most since May 2008 (3.9 mill) • “Quit Rate” increasing • Historical cycle: better economy - enrollments decline • College enrollment – half-million drop in 2012 from 2011 • 90% of decline due to non-traditional students (25+)
  6. 6. • Employers are struggling to find skilled applicants! • Postsecondary credential as a job requirement is higher than ever • 53% job postings – bachelors degree. 85% - associates degree Side facts • 2010-2012: “bachelors degree or higher jobs” increased while “other jobs” decreased • 34 million have college credit but no degree 6 Upside Down Economy-Education Cycle
  7. 7. Summary • Economy improving  awesome • Job availability  awesome • Jobs that require a degree – increasing  awesome • People getting degrees – flat or declining  not awesome • People not completing a degree – increasing  not awesome 7
  8. 8. Mega-Trends Details 1. Non-Traditional is the new Traditional – fewer than 20% of 20 million enrolled are 18-24 yrs old enrolled full- time and have most expenses paid by parents 2. Cost – concern for everyone. Reduced state tax support last 5 years made up by tuition hikes. Shift from tax-payer to student. • Student debt at all-time high = $29,400 3. Cost-Value Comparisons – 8
  9. 9. Is it worth it? • Students are skeptical, frugal and demanding • Decisions: choosing major carefully, starting at a community college, learn a trade, future earnings and employability • Privates carry greatest risk. One-fourth had 10% > dips • Tuition discount rate – all time high: 45% • Schools cutting tuition and cutting expenditures 9
  10. 10. College Attendance Decisions 10 http://www.gallup.com/poll/163268/americans-say-graduates- jobs-status-key-college-choice.aspx 41% 16% 37% 32% 22% 40% 43% 14% 40% 51% 13% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % grads able to get a good job % students who graduate Price of college/university All respondents <$3,000/mo. $3,000-$7,499/mo. >$7,500/mo. Monthly Income In your opinion, which of the following is the MOST important factor in choosing which college or university to attend? (general population response)
  11. 11. Past Present Future Your Region 11 Enrollment Trends
  12. 12. 12 College Enrollment Falls as Economy Recovers July 25, 2013 …signs point to 2013-14 being the year when traditional four- year, nonprofit colleges begin an enrollment contraction that will last for several years. Hardest hit are likely to be colleges that do not rank among the wealthiest or most prestigious, and are heavily dependent on tuition revenue.
  13. 13. • Data for every college and university in the U.S. • Applicants, Admits, Enrolled – 2003-2012 13
  14. 14. All Schools 4 yr public/private not for profit 14 College attendance began a steep climb from 15.2 million in 1999 to 20.4 million in 2011 (34.2% increase)
  15. 15. Forecasting Trends will continue through 2020 15 Our projections indicate that the era of annually increasing graduating classes through about 2011 is ending, while graduating classes are rapidly becoming more diverse.
  16. 16. Total HS Students Graduates By State (08-09 to 19-20) 16 State % WI -10% IA -6% MN -6% MI -19% MO -7% OH -7% IL -6% IN -2% NE +5% KS +5% -15 -5 0 5 15
  17. 17. Share Non-White HS Students By State (08-09 to 19-20) 17 State 09 to 19 % Diff IA 10-17 +7 MN 17-23 +6 WI 17-21 +4 NE 17-26 +9 IN 16-23 +7 KS 21-27 +6 IL 36-42 +6 MO 21-23 +2 OH 16-18 +2 MI 24-26 +2 10 20 30 40 50
  18. 18. 19 Keep who we’ve got! A new focus? 25% of all students are taking 15+ credit hours to graduate in four years 19% As a result, 19% graduate in four years 54% Average six year graduation rate Source: Complete College America "Game Changers" 2013
  19. 19. Personal Trainer What should I • Keep doing… • Stop doing… • Start doing… 20 Noel Levitz Higher Ed Benchmark Polls (2013): 263 colleges and universities Progress & SucceedEngage & EnrollPlan & Learn Want different results?
  20. 20. Keep Doing (effective and many doing) • Campus open house events / campus visit days (1-3) • Encouraging ‘apply now’ on admissions website (1-3) • Schedule campus visits on admissions website (1-3) • Using enrolled students in recruitment/marketing (1) • Community college articulation agreements (2) • Publicizing HS programs which earns college credits (3) 21 Code Institution 1 four year private 2 four year public 3 Two year community college
  21. 21. Stop Doing (many doing but not effective) • Asking current students/alumni for applicant referrals (1,2) • Online college fairs (1,2) • Online net-price calculator (1,3) • Mailing course schedules to residents in area (1,3) • Recruiting through business/industry/consortia (1,3) • Billboard, bus or other outdoor advertising and radio (2) • Targeting high academic ability students (3) 22
  22. 22. Start Doing (effective and not many doing) • Campus visit events or off campus meetings or events designed for HS guidance counselors (1,2,3) • Weekend visits for high school students (1,2) • Offering loans directly from the college/univ (1,2) • Assess student reactions to financial aid awards (2,3) • Telecounseling – continuous, scheduled high volume (1) • College-paid trips to campus for prospective students (2) • Admissions decisions ‘on the spot’ wherever (3) • Retargeting ads that target students who previously visited your web site (1) 23
  23. 23. Top 5 modes of communication 24 Bold = < 25% using
  24. 24. Volume of Contact by Stage 25
  25. 25. Top 5 Internal Operations (4 yr only) 26 Four-year private Four-year public Outsource student search CRM CRM Funnel tracking Funnel tracking Predictive modeling Financial aid leverage models Financial aid leverage models Outsource inquiry to app Content management system Bold = < 25% using Four-year private Four-year public 60,000 52,500 (2x from 2 yrs ago) Search Name Buys
  26. 26. Keep Doing (effective and many doing) 27 • Academic support program (1-3) • Tutoring (1-3) • Work experiences in their intended major (1-3) • First year experience program (1,2) • Programs for • academically high risk students (1,2) • Honor students (2) • Early –alert and intervention system (1)
  27. 27. Stop Doing (many doing but not effective) • Maintaining contact with students who are leaving (1-3) • Identifying re-entry dates for students who are leaving (1-3) • Surveys with students who are withdrawing (2) • Programs designed • Online learners (2,3) • Second-year students (1) • Adult/non-traditional students (2) • Online social networking communities to engage students (1) • Financial literacy programs (3)28
  28. 28. Start Doing (effective and not many doing) • Mandatory advising (1-3) • Advising by professional staff/faculty, one-on-one (1-3) • Advising for students approaching graduation (1) • Reverse-transfer – help them go back to previous institution (1,2) • Programs designed for • International students (2,3) • Students of color (1,2) • Honor students (1,3) • Veterans (1,3) • Transfer students (3) • Second-year students (2) • Learning Communities (2) 29
  29. 29. 1. Performance funding – funding tied to progression 2. Corequisite Remediation – parallel remedial help 3. Full-time is 15 not 12 credit hours – at same cost 4. Structured Schedules – same time, same days till done 5. Guided Pathways – all students have a degree plan 30 “Time is the enemy!”
  30. 30. Top Internal Operations 31 Top Internal Operations Identify incoming students strengths, weaknesses, needs, and concerns Emphasis on teaching and learning Retention software to track and manage Predictive modeling – likelihood of incoming students persisting Tracking persistence and progression – term by term- all students and credit hours completed vs. attempted Tracking tough courses, retention rates by program, academic probation Setting measurable goals to improve retention year-to-year and college completion Title III or Title V funding Bold = < 25% using
  31. 31. “If something can't go on forever, it will stop.” 32 Herbert Stein Economist The pattern of the last few decades, in which higher education costs grew much faster than incomes, with the difference made up by borrowing, can't go on forever. As students and parents begin to apply the brakes, colleges need to find ways to make that stop a smooth one rather than a crash. WSJ, Jan 15 2014
  32. 32. Summary The next 8-10 years are going to be very different than the last 15 years Sticking to what once worked…will not work How will you internally balance getting students to your school and getting them through your school? What will institution choose to keep doing, stop doing and start doing? 33
  33. 33. Questions?

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