Professor Caroline Moser presents an introduction into the Urban Tipping Point research at the Nairobi dissemination event.

1. Understanding the Tipping Point of Urban Conflict:
Violence, Cities and Poverty Reduction in the Developing
World
Introduction ttoo tthhee ssttuuddyy
Caroline Moser
Global Urban Research Centre,
University of Manchester

2. Background to the research project
Urban violence acknowledged as increasingly
significant global phenomenon
Conventional wisdom associating it with four factors:
Poverty
Youth bulges
Political exclusion
Gender-based insecurity
Violence is understood as the forcible imposition,
by individual or group of their interests to the
disfavour/exclusion of others

3. Background to the research project
Underpinning conventional wisdom
Cities are inherently conflictual spaces
Conflict is understood as aa ssiittuuaattiioonn wwhheerree
individuals or groups have incongruent, or
differing, interests that are contradictory and
potentially mutually exclusive
Conflict is generally ‘managed’ by a range of
peaceful mechanisms

4. Introduction of new research concepts
1. Tipping points
‘Small events and actions tthhaatt pprroodduuccee bbiigg
cchhaannggeess’’ ((GGllaaddwweellll)
‘‘AA ccrriittiiccaall ttuurrnniinngg ppooiinntt iiss aann eevveenntt tthhaatt cchhaannggeess
tttthhhheeee ttttrrrraaaajjjjeeeeccccttttoooorrrryyyy ooooffff ddddeeeevvvveeeellllooooppppmmmmeeeennnntttt ((((WWWWaaaallllbbbbyyyy))))
Research Question:
What determines a tipping point of urban
conflict when violence breaks out on a large
scale?

5. Introduction of new research concepts
2. Violence chains
Builds on notion of ‘commodity cchhaaiinnss’’ ttoo
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vviioolleennccee
Research Focus:
On processes rather than violence phenomena,
identifying the shift from one state to another

6. Combined research components
1. City profile
City-level data to provide general characterization of
city as well as urban violence trends
Based on quantitative secondary data
2. Sub-city study
Perceptions of focus groups within informal
settlements of types of conflict and violence , tipping
point factors that results in violence, and the chains
linking different types of violence
Based on qualitative primary data using
participatory violence appraisal methodology (PVA)
and informant interviews

7. What is a participatory violence appraisal?
Origins: Includes work of Robert Chambers, Paulo Freire, Indian
Environmental NGOs
Principles: Reversal of power - learning from local people
rather than extracting
Shift from verbal to visual, individual to group
Robustness: Purposive sampling from focus groups
representative of community members, in terms of age, gender,
ethnicity, economic activities and culturally
Previous research using participatory methodology:
Violence: Colombia, Guatemala (Moser McIlwaine 1999, Moser
McIlwaine 2004)
Community adaptation to climate change: Mombasa, Esteli,
Cartagena, Pondicherry (Moser et al 2010; Moser and Stein 2011)

8. Research Partners
Research
Centre
Researchers Country
and city
Paradigmatic
factor
GURC/BWPI, U.
of Manchester
Caroline Moser
Dennis Rodgers
(PI)
(CI)
Eco-Build Africa Alfred Omenya
Grace Lubaale
Kenya,
Nairobi
Political
exclusion
Corporacion
A. Rodriguez
Santiago,
Gender-based
SUR
M. Saborido
Chile
insecurity
Centre on
Conflict, IDS,
Geneva
C. Moser
Oliver
Jutersonke
Dili, East
Timor
Youth
Institute for
Human Dev.
Alakh Sharma
Dennis Rodgers
Patna, India Poverty

9. Research process
1. 2010 Nov: Manchester - Inception Workshop (4 teams)
2. 2011 March –April: Nairobi - City profile and PVA (AO/GL)
3. 2011 April: Nairobi – Analysis Workshop (AO/GL/CM)
4. 2011 Nov: Manchester -Mid-term Workshop (4 teams)
5. 2012 March: Nairobi: City Consultations:
Community consultation Kibera
Consultation with Strategic Partners and Public***
6. 2012 March: South- South consultations, Santiago
7. June 2012: Final Global Workshop: Geneva
DONOR: ESRC/DFID Research Grant