Science

1. Daily Telegraph (Sydney, NSW : 1931 - 1954), Saturday 27 May 1950, page 13
World weather may be warming up
By Dr. EMERY Barks
Mr. A. R. PEN-FOLD, director of Sydney's Museum of Technology and Ap-
plied Sciences, said last week that Sydney was becoming hotter, and world weather generally was "tak ing , a
turn for the better." "Dr. Julian Huxley's recent trip to Iceland re vealed an enormous shrinking of the Polar
pack-ice due to the in creased heat of the sun," Mr. Penfold said. "The best sign of change in the lower
latitudes is that the East African lakes are drying up." Climatologists may want more evidence before con
cluding that the climate of the southern hemisphere is changing, but over many years scientists have observ-
ed a slow warming of the weather in the northern half of the world. The temperature rise has speeded up
since 1920. Don't imagine that the thermometer
during the past 30 years has risen by whole degrees every year— the steady
warming-up process can be expressed only in fractions of degrees. But it has produced important
consequences. Since about 1920 the glac iers in the European Alps have been melting faster. Ice land has had
warmer winters and the immense icefields of Greenland are noticeably shrinking. In Finland, types of
moorland formerly charac teristic of the south have gradually extended north wards and certain mosses which
need some warmth have spread over large new tracts of country. All over Northern Europe, too, the "tree-
frontier" (the I highest latitude' at which trees Will grow), is steadily pushing northwards. Birch-trees and
conifers are occupying more and more of the hitherto tree less and frozen northern wasteland, the tundra.
Pehaps the British-Norwegian-expedition at present in the Antarctic will give the answer for the Southern
Hemisphere, which in-cludes Australia.
Scientists, have also observ ed great changes in the Arctic oceans. The area of water infested with drift-ice
has diminished and English oceanographers say that the temperature of the North At lantic has risen, by two
or more degrees. Today herrings, codfish, and haddock live lust ily in Arctic waters where they were never
found before. The Russians claim that their scientific methods alone have enabled them to exploit parts of
Northern Siberia. Non - Communist scientists, however, say that Russian eco nomic achievements in the
north have nothing to do with special Russian theory and practice. If the drift-ice had not melted, they say,
Soviet ships could not sail on the "top of the world" from Murmansk to Kamchatka, and if tempera tures had
not risen, agricul ture in parts of Northern Si beria would still be imposs ible. Americans in Alaska and
Canadians in the north-west provinces of Canada have made "con quests" similar
to those of the Russians in Si beria. But the Americans and Canadians have pushed their frontiers northward
with less nationalistic trumpeting and more scientific honesty. They admit that Nature has helped them.
American scientists say that their continent is becoming warmer and — drier. Climatic changes in North
America are producing extreme tempera tures; hotter and longer sum mers, colder and shorter win ters. What
causes earth tempera tures to rise like this? No one knows. Some scientists sus pect that sunspot activities
(gigantic explosions in the sun) followed by increased radiation of heat may explain the riddle. Anyhow, rest
assured that the changes have nothing to do with the dropping of atomic bombs or with other mysterious
experiments of our scientific age. Changes in earth tempera-
tures occurred long before man appeared In the pre historic forests and have occurred frequently since. Man
is neither responsible for nor has he any control over changing earth temperatures. That much is certain. We
know that about 60,000,-000 years ago the climate of the earth was only slightly warmer than it is now. Then
it gradually warmed up and for the next 35,000,000 years it was so hot that "southern" plants grew in the
present Arctic Circle. Some 15,000,000 years ago came another change — the climate began to cool, and be
tween 600,000 and 1,000,000 years ago ice covered most of the earth. MAN, a rare animal at that time,
appeared prob ably shortly before this tragic period in the world's climate began. He survived the Ice Age,
which lasted a few hun dred thousand years. Then earth temperatures rose again, the ice-sheath be gan to
melt, causing immense floods, and creating large oceans and lakes. The last phase of the Ice Age ended about

2. 6500 B.C. — corresponding to the probable date when the first great human cultures in the Nile delta and in
Mesopotamia be gan. But even since then the world's climate has run five warm and cold cycles. And these
cycles have deeply in fluenced humanity's career. But to understand why climate influences the be havior of
whole nations we must first know how it influ-ences individuals. As Professor Clarence A. Mills, head of the
Laboratory for Experimental Medicine, University of Cincinnati, wrote in a recent article in the American
magazine Science, "the human body is essentially a combustion machine that functions only as its cells re
lease energy by burning the foodstuffs taken in." For every unit of combus-
tion energy that our bodies trans form into work - output, our bodies have to dissi pate three or four units as
waste heat. But the
speed at which we burn up our fuel and get rid of our waste heat determines the vigor with which we think or
act. The faster we dissi pate waste heat, the more vig orous we are. In a hot, humid climate peo ple burn up
their body fuel slowly, get rid of theit waste heat slowly. This saps their vitality, makes them languid, easy-
going, unadventurous. In cooler climates people burn up their fuel quickly, get rid of their waste heat quickly.
This makes them active, rest-less, adventurous. "No other physical factor, when considered directly and
indirectly, has so great an in fluence on health and vigor as climate," says the noted American geographer
Ells-worth Huntington in his Mainsprings of Civilisation. History supports this thesis. For instance Europe's
second-last period of cold occurred
approximately between 700 B.C. and 300 A.D. In that era the Mediter ranean Basin had a perfect,
invigorating climate. This was the age of Greek-Roman greatness, of thriving towns in North. Africa —
Carthage, Sabrata, Leptis Magna, and others. Then came a period of warmth which lasted about 1000 years
and was at its peak about 850 A.D. All Med iterranean peoples declined and the age of the Northern ers
began. In this period cereals ripen ed in Iceland, settlement thrived in Greenland, grapes grew in Britain, and
Norse men and Vikings left their Northern homelands for long voyages of exploration and conquest. Between
the 10th and 13th centuries temperatures drop ped again and froze the
Northern peo ples into in-activity. At the same time, in Central Europe, ener vating heat gave way to a
climate favor able to human activity and
this brought the energetic Renaissance (revival of learn ing and the arts). Since the middle of the last century,
and especially since 1920, the Northern Hemis phere has certainly been warming up again, and the Southern
probably warming up. Are there any signs that this has affected the trend of modern history? THE period is
much too short for us to give a defin ite answer, though some ex treme believers in the influ ence of climate
on human af fairs have already predicted that the next 1000 years will, be a new era of Northman supremacy.
For instance, Professor Mills (whom I have quoted before) writes: "The northward shift of world power was
emphasised by Germany's bid for a place-
in-the-sun' in World War I. Only the superior ingenuity and resources of Britain and America kept her from
her goal, for Russia was then only in the early throes of her awakening, and France was quite incapable of
coping with her more vigorous neighbor. "When World War II came a quarter-century later, Amer ica was
pushed to new peaks of industrial productivity and scientific advances that con tributed substantially to vic
tory, but the war's most sig nificant outcome was the bid for world power by a new far-northern nation—
Russia. "Retarded by the benumb ing winter cold of past cen turies, much of Russia today enjoys
temperatures which are near the optimal [best suited] for human endeavor. Freer flow of her energies and the
heady successes of war and post-war years have given her a self-confidence that consid ers nothing
impossible. . . . "In the warm centuries ahead she may gain the sought-for place-in-the-sun, along with the
lesser northern nations of Scandinavia and Canada. To appreciate that Russia is really a far-northern nation,
one should bear in mind that the city of Stalin grad lies close to the latitude of Winnipeg ..." More
conservative scientists
brand such predictions as fan tasies, And anyway, that northern nation, Germany, made her bid twice— first
un der the Kaiser, then under Hitler — and faiied each time. Russia may likewise fail. Scientists remind us
that we don't know how long the pres ent ' warming-up will last— whether it's only a short spell or the
beginning of a new era in which the ice-caps of the poles will melt and citrus fruits grow in Northern Alas ka,
Siberia, and frozen Ant arctica. But if a long 'hot cycle" does set in for the earth in general, humanity will
face immense problems. THE present tropics may dry up and become com pletely uninhabitable. Sydney
may be a tropical city with a climate like that of Aden, Massawa, or Darwin. Man may exploit the natural re

3. sources of Arctic and Antarc tic regions now covered by ice thousands of feet thick. Animals of many species
may die out and others may develop. Great Powers of to day may fall and others rise through the influence of
climate on their lands. The possibilities are fantastic and only the fiction-writer could do them justice. Yet
you may safely guess that even if great climatic
changes come, they will come gradually. You may have seen Thorn ton Wilder's play, The Skin of Our Teeth ,
a couple of years ago when the Oliviers visited Australia with the Old Vic Company. In the play a sud den Ice
Age descends on the earth and exterminates most man kind. In reality the chances of so sudden a climatic
catastrophe are nil. The world may be come very hot or very cold— in due course. But present gen erations
will see only the be ginnings of the new era. Only our remote descendants will enjoy its full benefits or suf
fer its full hardships. So if you look out of your window and judge that the weather "isn't what it used to
be"— -don't worry unduly.
IS ® !i B ' . I . you loved me, you'd apologise even if you were right " 1 -
" Forty below one day , and zero the next! I wish it would get cold and stay cold!"
" Good evening s ladies