This presentation was provided by Kieth Webster of Carnegie Mellon University, during the NISO event "No More Big Deal? Picking and Choosing Titles for Use," held on July 6, 2020.

1. No More Big Deal?
Picking and Choosing
Titles for Use
@cmkeithw
Keith Webster
Dean of University Libraries and Director of Emerging and
Integrative Media Initiatives
J U LY 6 , 2 0 2 0

2. Similar charts can be produced for other library groups (such as SCONUL
and CAUL)
EBSCO serials price projections typically in 5-6% annual increase range
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
%ChangeSince1998
Source: ARL Statistics2017-18 Association of Research Libraries, Washington, D.C.
**Figures notadjusted forinflation
***Trend line was extended with data from Ongoing and One-Time Resource Expenditures
Expenditure Trends
in ARL University Libraries, 1998-2018
Ongoing Resource Expenditures
(formerly Serial Expenditures)***
(+166%)
Total Library Materials
Expenditures
(+123%)
Operating Expenditures (+30%)
TOTAL Expenditures (+68%)
CPI (+54%)
One-Time Resource Expenditures
(Formerly Monograph
Expenditures)***
(+23%)
Total Salaries (+46%)

3. Global Marketplace for Journals
Publishers sell in markets around the world. Pricing varies according to local markets, journal format,
initiatives such as Research4Life. Forex exposure can impact both publishers and libraries. The role of
(quasi-)government agencies can also be impactful.
N America Asia Europe Africa Australasia Latin America

4. Electronic
Became mainstream in mid
1990s
For more than 300 years scholars journals appeared in a common format - printed issues released at regular intervals. The Internet enabled online distribution of those
same issues and, more recently, individual articles have been accompanied by other artifacts of the research process. Specialist journals have emerged to disseminate
specialist resources. I would argue that the emergence of the Impact Factor in the 1960s created an incentive framework which enabled the commercialization of journal
publishing.
Scholarly journals - from titles to bundles and beyond
Print
First title launched in 1665
Evolving
Articles being expanded by
accompanying digital
artifacts of the research
process
By 2000s libraries were moving
away form title by title
subscription to big deals where
they would license collections or
all output
Designed as a mechanism for
scholars to share ideas, with
date stamping, peer review,
dissemination and archiving in
place from outset

5. Journals in the print world
Many titles emerged and disappeared in response to disciplinary trends
Journals (generally) had a lifecycle
Upward spiral of success
Journal launched - attract high quality
papers - high impact factor - more papers -
larger volume - higher price
Downward spiral of decline
Quality starts to fall - fewer citations -
lower impact factor - fewer papers -
irregular publication - subscriptions
cancelled - termination
Success
Time

6. The impact of the Big Deal
Four major players in the Big Deal each see different costs and benefits
Library Publisher Society
More content
Deeper archives
User satisfaction
Loss of flexibility in subscriptions
Locked in (or expensive to leave)
More stability in revenue
Value trumps quality
Lifeline for smaller titles
Lack of economies of scale make
smaller publishers vulnerable
Strong and stable royalties
Most prestigious have very
competitive offerings
Access to global distribution and
technology platforms
Reader

9. Larivière V, Haustein S, Mongeon P (2015) The Oligopoly of Academic Publishers in the Digital Era. PLoS ONE 10(6): e0127502. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0127502

10. 0
175,000
350,000
525,000
700,000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USA UK China
Scholarly Output, 1980-2016 Scopus
Scholarly output

11. Library budgets under pressure

12. Customer pressure
Investor pressure

13. 2008-2009 2020-?

14. Unbundle
Select key titles
Cancel
Walk away if
necessary
Transform
Consider linking read
& publish

15. An Impacts Framework
http://www.humanities.org.au/Events/NSCF/NSCF2007/PowerPoints/NSCF2007-Houghton.ppt
RESEARCH
Most/Many served,
but not all
CONSUMERS/
SOCIETY
Few served
INDUSTRY/
GOVERNMENT
Part served,
but not all
SUBSCRIPTION PUBLISHING
Current reach
OPEN ACCESS
Potentially serves all
RESEARCH
Access for all, research
par:cipa:on based on merit,
not means.
Potential benefits:
Speeding up discovery.
Reduc:on of duplica:ve
research.
Fewer blind alleys.
New research possibili:es.
BeDer educa:onal outcomes
& enhanced research
capabili:es.
SOCIETY
Access as needed, informed
consumers (e.g. health and
educa:on).
Potential benefits:
Contribu:on to the 'informed
ci:zen' and 'informed
consumer', with implica:ons for
beDer use of health and
educa:on services, beDer
consump:on choices, etc.
leading to greater welfare
benefits, which in turn may lead
to produc:vity improvements.
INDUSTRY
(1) Access as needed,
more informed
producers & policy.
(2) New businesses add
value to content (e.g.
Weather Deriva:ves).
Potential benefits:
Accelerate and widen
opportuni:es for
collabora:on,
commercialisa:on
& adop:on.
The poten:al for much
wider access for GPs/
nurses, teachers/
students, and small
firms in consul:ng,
engineering, ICT,
nanotechnology,
biotechnology, etc.
The poten:al for the
emergence of new
industries based upon
the open access
content.

16. Robotics and Automation
Transition Design
Artificial Intelligence
Cybersecurity and Privacy
Fine Arts, Drama and Music
Ethics and Public Policy
Advanced Manufacturing
Data Science
Digital Humanities
Behavioral Economics
Neuroscience
Entrepreneurship

17. CMU open access agreements
1 JULY 2020
Our largest open access only
publisher
PLOS
2020+
Active negotiations with
another major society
IN THE WORKS
1 JAN 2020
First institutional agreement
for Elsevier - for all CMU
corresponding authors
ELSEVIER
Agreement via ACM Open -
aims to move all journals to
OA
ACM
1 JAN 2020