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CHAPTER 5
WEATHER FORECASTING
Weather Forecast

A prediction of weather conditions
expected at a place, within an area,
or along a route for a specified time
or during a specified period
The civilian weather agency is the
National Weather Service.
National Weather Service

An agency of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration
responsible for meteorological
observations, weather forecasts,
storm, and flood warnings, etc.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) is part of the
Department of Commerce.
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration

A division of the Department of
Commerce, created in 1970, that
conducts research on the world’s
oceans and atmosphere
The National Weather Service is
composed of a headquarters at Camp
Springs, Maryland, six national support
centers, and six regional headquarters.
The six regional headquarters support
field activities throughout the United
States, Puerto Rico, and on some of the
islands of the Pacific Ocean.
Clovis 13
        North Clovis, NM




The National Weather Service also
receives weather data from some
12,000 substations, most of which
are manned by volunteers.
Chief among the six national support
centers is the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction.
The National Centers for Environmental
Prediction are a group of nine specialized
centers that focus on one aspect of the
overall national warning and forecasting
process. They include:

• Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO
• Climate Prediction Center at the NWS
  headquarters, Camp Springs, MD
• Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO
• Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
• Tropical Prediction Center (also known as
  the National Hurricane Center), Miami, FL
The National Weather
                   Service:

                   • Employs several
                     thousand people
                   • Operates 400 weather
                     facilities in the U.S.
                   • Operates 13 weather
                     facilities overseas
National Weather
                   • Has weather facilities
      Service        on 21 ships
 Tallahassee, FL
Each day, the National
             Weather Service processes:


• 12,000 synoptic reports and 25,000
  hourly reports from surface
  observation stations
• 1,400 reports from ships
• 1,500 atmospheric soundings
• 2,500 reports from aircraft
• Cloud and temperature data from
  weather satellites
Synoptic

Pertaining to or constituting a
synopsis; affording or taking a
general view of the principal
parts of a subject
The National Weather Service provides
weather information to newspapers,
radio and television stations, and other
media for the general public.
The National Weather Service makes studies of
climate and conducts basic and applied research
to improve future forecasts and services, and to
advance the science of meteorology itself.
Much of the National Weather Service's
day-to-day activity is geared to the service of
aviation. Several High Altitude Forecast
Centers have been set up to forecast high-
altitude conditions for commercial airlines.
The National Weather Service, as part of
NOAA, is within what U.S. department?

a.   Commerce
b.   Interior
c.   State
d.   Treasury
The National Weather Service, as part of
NOAA, is within what U.S. department?

a.   Commerce
b.   Interior
c.   State
d.   Treasury
The National Hurricane Center in Miami
is also known as the ________ ________
Center.

a.   Aviation Weather
b.   Kennedy Space
c.   Storm Prediction
d.   Tropical Prediction
The National Hurricane Center in Miami
is also known as the ________ ________
Center.

a.   Aviation Weather
b.   Kennedy Space
c.   Storm Prediction
d.   Tropical Prediction
Each of the services maintains its own
weather agency. The Navy Weather
Service is part of the Navy Meteorology
and Oceanography Command.
Navy Meteorology and
    Oceanography Command

U.S. Navy command whose mission is to
collect, interpret and apply global
meteorological and oceanographic data
and information for safety at sea, strategic
and tactical warfare and weapons
system design, development and
deployment
The U.S. Navy is an active participant in
the World Meteorological Organization.
World Meteorological Organization

Coordinates weather data collection
and analysis by more than 178 member
nations and territories; based in
Geneva, Switzerland
Navy weather units are maintained:

• With all major aviation units
• With certain major combatant and
  auxiliary vessels, and flagships
• At most naval shore activities
Trained enlisted aerographer's mates
and meteorological officers are
assigned to weather units.
On ships that do
not carry
aerographers and
meteorologists,
weather
observations
and reporting are
carried out by the
ship's navigator,
assisted by
trained
quartermasters.
The Naval Meteorology and Oceanography
Centers (NMOCs) use basic information
acquired from various sources, compile
it into weather broadcasts and warnings,
and transmit it to operating forces within
their area of responsibility.
The NMOCs are located at:
• Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
• San Diego, California
• Norfolk, Virginia
• Yokosuka, Japan
• Rota, Spain
• Bahrain in the Persian Gulf


The Fleet Numerical
Meteorology and
Oceanography Center
is located in Monterey,
California.
What organization serves as the weather
agency for the U.S. Navy?

a. Naval Meteorology Bureau
b. Naval Weather Command
c. Navy Meteorology and
   Oceanography Command
d. Navy Weather Service
What organization serves as the weather
agency for the U.S. Navy?

a. Naval Meteorology Bureau
b. Naval Weather Command
c. Navy Meteorology and
   Oceanography Command
d. Navy Weather Service
How many Naval Meteorological and
Oceanographic Centers are there?

a.   Three
b.   Four
c.   Five
d.   Six
How many Naval Meteorological and
Oceanographic Centers are there?

a.   Three
b.   Four
c.   Five
d.   Six
The National Weather Service publishes
many kinds of weather forecasts:




           • 24-hour detailed forecasts
           • 5-day forecasts
The National Weather Service publishes
many kinds of weather forecasts:




• 30-day general outlooks
The National Weather Service publishes
many kinds of weather forecasts:




• 12-hour aviation forecasts
• Special bulletins, weather maps, and
  storm and frost warnings
Newspapers, TV, and radio weather
reports rely on many of the National
Weather Service forecasts.
Complete weather reports are given
to pilots. They also receive in-flight
updates of weather information.
There are two kinds of weather
reporting, local and long-range
forecasting.
The long-range study is more concerned
with an overall view of the climate and
with predictions a year or more in the
future. Almanacs provide long-range
weather predictions.
Almanac

A publication containing astronomical
or meteorological information
Local weather is predicted up to a month
or so in advance. The accuracy of these
predictions is dependent upon timely
readings taken at many reporting
stations. It is not an exact science.
Weather Reporting Stations, Weather
Ships, Balloons, and Weather Satellites
Elements of the Navy Meteorology and
Oceanography Command prepare
several types of forecasts:
• Area
• Local
• Route
• Flight
• Terminal
• Storm Warnings
• Special Warnings
Major units afloat and ashore prepare
area forecasts. They provide:

• Synopsis of weather conditions

• Report of all pressure systems and
  associated weather, including position,
  intensity, direction of movement
Ships and stations plan and use local
forecasts.
They provide:

• Brief summary of synoptic pressure
  situation, fronts, severe weather, fog

• Normally 36-hour predictions

• Specific details affecting operations
  such as flying conditions, ceilings
The route forecast refers to weather
conditions along a specific route.
The flight forecast pertains to the
weather conditions on successive
stages of a flight.
The terminal forecast concerns itself
with the landing and takeoff conditions
at fields en route.
Storm warnings are included in
scheduled broadcasts to both the fleet
and merchant marine. Thunderstorms,
tornadoes, local windstorms, and major
cyclonic storms are reported.
Special warnings are issued for
hurricanes.
What commercial publications provide
long-range weather predictions for the
year ahead?

a. Almanacs
b. Annual Weather Bulletins
c. National Weather Prediction
   Bulletins
d. Newspapers
What commercial publications provide
long-range weather predictions for the
year ahead?

a. Almanacs
b. Annual Weather Bulletins
c. National Weather Prediction
   Bulletins
d. Newspapers
What type of forecast do major Navy
units provide for their operating region?

a.   Area
b.   Flight
c.   Local
d.   Route
What type of forecast do major Navy
units provide for their operating region?

a.   Area
b.   Flight
c.   Local
d.   Route
TIROS I - Television Infrared
         Observation Satellite I




Weather satellites began service in 1960.
The newest satellites are equipped with
cameras that transmit pictures of cloud
formations by day or night. Other sensors
relate surface temperatures, fronts,
storms, snow, sea ice, and cloud heights.
Weather satellites are positioned about
900 miles from the Earth's surface, orbit
the Earth every 115 minutes, and view
the entire Earth three times a day.
Geosynchronous satellites hover 22,300
miles above the equator and photograph
an entire hemisphere every half an hour.
Geosynchronous or Geostationary
       Satellites (GOES)

A series of United States satellites that
remain above a fixed point on the Earth

Meteorological satellites that collect
data for worldwide weather forecasting
GOES provide spectacular pictures of
whole hurricane systems and frontal
weather patterns that are now a regular
part of weather forecasting.
Geosynchronous weather satellites
hover how far above the earth?

a.   22,300 feet
b.   110,150 feet
c.   11,150 miles
d.   22,300 miles
Geosynchronous weather satellites
hover how far above the earth?

a.   22,300 feet
b.   110,150 feet
c.   11,150 miles
d.   22,300 miles
Geosynchronous weather satellites
photograph an entire hemisphere how
many times a day?

a.   3
b.   12 (every two hours)
c.   24 (once an hour)
d.   48 (every half hour)
Geosynchronous weather satellites
photograph an entire hemisphere how
many times a day?

a.   3
b.   12 (every two hours)
c.   24 (once an hour)
d.   48 (every half hour)
Weather maps are printed and distributed
by the National Weather Service.
All symbols
used on the
maps are
explained in
map legends.
Isobaric forecasting is possible by
careful reading of weather maps, since
all frontal zones and wind directions
are carefully charted.
What type of forecasting is possible by
careful reading of weather maps?

a.   Isobaric
b.   Long-range
c.   Metabolic
d.   Synoptic
What type of forecasting is possible by
careful reading of weather maps?

a.   Isobaric
b.   Long-range
c.   Metabolic
d.   Synoptic
The weather symbol, ══, indicates what
type of weather condition?

a.   Fog
b.   Heavy snow
c.   Rain
d.   Thunderstorm
The weather symbol, ══, indicates what
type of weather condition?

a.   Fog
b.   Heavy snow
c.   Rain
d.   Thunderstorm
Q.1. What is a flight forecast?
Q.1. What is a flight forecast?


A.1. A forecast of weather
     conditions on successive
     stages of a flight
Q.2. What is a route forecast?
Q.2. What is a route forecast?


A.2. A forecast of weather
     conditions along a specific
     route
Q.3. What is a synoptic forecast?
Q.3. What is a synoptic forecast?


A.3. A general or overall view
Q.4. What is the World
     Meteorological Organization?
Q.4. What is the World
     Meteorological Organization?


A.4. An agency of the United
     Nations that provides the NWS
     with an exchange of weather
     information
Q.5. What are two kinds of weather
     reporting?
Q.5. What are two kinds of weather
     reporting?


A.5. Long-range and local
Q.6. Who typically mans a Navy
     weather unit?
Q.6. Who typically mans a Navy
     weather unit?


A.6. Trained enlisted aerographer's
     mates and meteorological
     officers
Q.7. What is a terminal forecast?
Q.7. What is a terminal forecast?


A.7. A forecast of the weather
     conditions at the airfield
     intended for landing and
     takeoff
Q.8. On ships that do not have
     aerographers and meteorologists,
     who conducts weather
     observations and weather
     reporting duties?
Q.8. On ships that do not have
     aerographers and meteorologists,
     who conducts weather
     observations and weather
     reporting duties?


A.8. Ship's navigator, assisted by
     trained quartermasters
Q.9. In what year was the first
     weather satellite launched,
     and what was its name?
Q.9. In what year was the first
     weather satellite launched,
     and what was its name?


A.9. 1960, TIROS (TV and Infrared
     Observation Satellite)
Q.10. Who prepares local forecasts
      for the Navy?
Q.10. Who prepares local forecasts
      for the Navy?


A.10. The local forecasts are
      prepared by ships or
      stations.
Q.11. Who issues storm warnings
      for the Navy?
Q.11. Who issues storm warnings
      for the Navy?


A.11. NMOCs responsible for the
      area in which the storm is
      located

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NS2 3.5 Weather Forecasting

  • 2. Weather Forecast A prediction of weather conditions expected at a place, within an area, or along a route for a specified time or during a specified period
  • 3. The civilian weather agency is the National Weather Service.
  • 4. National Weather Service An agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasts, storm, and flood warnings, etc.
  • 5. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is part of the Department of Commerce.
  • 6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration A division of the Department of Commerce, created in 1970, that conducts research on the world’s oceans and atmosphere
  • 7. The National Weather Service is composed of a headquarters at Camp Springs, Maryland, six national support centers, and six regional headquarters.
  • 8. The six regional headquarters support field activities throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, and on some of the islands of the Pacific Ocean.
  • 9. Clovis 13 North Clovis, NM The National Weather Service also receives weather data from some 12,000 substations, most of which are manned by volunteers.
  • 10. Chief among the six national support centers is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
  • 11. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction are a group of nine specialized centers that focus on one aspect of the overall national warning and forecasting process. They include: • Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO • Climate Prediction Center at the NWS headquarters, Camp Springs, MD • Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO • Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK • Tropical Prediction Center (also known as the National Hurricane Center), Miami, FL
  • 12. The National Weather Service: • Employs several thousand people • Operates 400 weather facilities in the U.S. • Operates 13 weather facilities overseas National Weather • Has weather facilities Service on 21 ships Tallahassee, FL
  • 13. Each day, the National Weather Service processes: • 12,000 synoptic reports and 25,000 hourly reports from surface observation stations • 1,400 reports from ships • 1,500 atmospheric soundings • 2,500 reports from aircraft • Cloud and temperature data from weather satellites
  • 14. Synoptic Pertaining to or constituting a synopsis; affording or taking a general view of the principal parts of a subject
  • 15. The National Weather Service provides weather information to newspapers, radio and television stations, and other media for the general public.
  • 16. The National Weather Service makes studies of climate and conducts basic and applied research to improve future forecasts and services, and to advance the science of meteorology itself.
  • 17. Much of the National Weather Service's day-to-day activity is geared to the service of aviation. Several High Altitude Forecast Centers have been set up to forecast high- altitude conditions for commercial airlines.
  • 18. The National Weather Service, as part of NOAA, is within what U.S. department? a. Commerce b. Interior c. State d. Treasury
  • 19. The National Weather Service, as part of NOAA, is within what U.S. department? a. Commerce b. Interior c. State d. Treasury
  • 20. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is also known as the ________ ________ Center. a. Aviation Weather b. Kennedy Space c. Storm Prediction d. Tropical Prediction
  • 21. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is also known as the ________ ________ Center. a. Aviation Weather b. Kennedy Space c. Storm Prediction d. Tropical Prediction
  • 22. Each of the services maintains its own weather agency. The Navy Weather Service is part of the Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command.
  • 23. Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command U.S. Navy command whose mission is to collect, interpret and apply global meteorological and oceanographic data and information for safety at sea, strategic and tactical warfare and weapons system design, development and deployment
  • 24. The U.S. Navy is an active participant in the World Meteorological Organization.
  • 25. World Meteorological Organization Coordinates weather data collection and analysis by more than 178 member nations and territories; based in Geneva, Switzerland
  • 26. Navy weather units are maintained: • With all major aviation units • With certain major combatant and auxiliary vessels, and flagships • At most naval shore activities
  • 27. Trained enlisted aerographer's mates and meteorological officers are assigned to weather units.
  • 28. On ships that do not carry aerographers and meteorologists, weather observations and reporting are carried out by the ship's navigator, assisted by trained quartermasters.
  • 29. The Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Centers (NMOCs) use basic information acquired from various sources, compile it into weather broadcasts and warnings, and transmit it to operating forces within their area of responsibility.
  • 30. The NMOCs are located at: • Pearl Harbor, Hawaii • San Diego, California • Norfolk, Virginia • Yokosuka, Japan • Rota, Spain • Bahrain in the Persian Gulf The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center is located in Monterey, California.
  • 31. What organization serves as the weather agency for the U.S. Navy? a. Naval Meteorology Bureau b. Naval Weather Command c. Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command d. Navy Weather Service
  • 32. What organization serves as the weather agency for the U.S. Navy? a. Naval Meteorology Bureau b. Naval Weather Command c. Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command d. Navy Weather Service
  • 33. How many Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Centers are there? a. Three b. Four c. Five d. Six
  • 34. How many Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Centers are there? a. Three b. Four c. Five d. Six
  • 35. The National Weather Service publishes many kinds of weather forecasts: • 24-hour detailed forecasts • 5-day forecasts
  • 36. The National Weather Service publishes many kinds of weather forecasts: • 30-day general outlooks
  • 37. The National Weather Service publishes many kinds of weather forecasts: • 12-hour aviation forecasts • Special bulletins, weather maps, and storm and frost warnings
  • 38. Newspapers, TV, and radio weather reports rely on many of the National Weather Service forecasts.
  • 39. Complete weather reports are given to pilots. They also receive in-flight updates of weather information.
  • 40. There are two kinds of weather reporting, local and long-range forecasting.
  • 41. The long-range study is more concerned with an overall view of the climate and with predictions a year or more in the future. Almanacs provide long-range weather predictions.
  • 42. Almanac A publication containing astronomical or meteorological information
  • 43. Local weather is predicted up to a month or so in advance. The accuracy of these predictions is dependent upon timely readings taken at many reporting stations. It is not an exact science.
  • 44. Weather Reporting Stations, Weather Ships, Balloons, and Weather Satellites
  • 45. Elements of the Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command prepare several types of forecasts: • Area • Local • Route • Flight • Terminal • Storm Warnings • Special Warnings
  • 46. Major units afloat and ashore prepare area forecasts. They provide: • Synopsis of weather conditions • Report of all pressure systems and associated weather, including position, intensity, direction of movement
  • 47. Ships and stations plan and use local forecasts. They provide: • Brief summary of synoptic pressure situation, fronts, severe weather, fog • Normally 36-hour predictions • Specific details affecting operations such as flying conditions, ceilings
  • 48. The route forecast refers to weather conditions along a specific route.
  • 49. The flight forecast pertains to the weather conditions on successive stages of a flight.
  • 50. The terminal forecast concerns itself with the landing and takeoff conditions at fields en route.
  • 51. Storm warnings are included in scheduled broadcasts to both the fleet and merchant marine. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, local windstorms, and major cyclonic storms are reported.
  • 52. Special warnings are issued for hurricanes.
  • 53. What commercial publications provide long-range weather predictions for the year ahead? a. Almanacs b. Annual Weather Bulletins c. National Weather Prediction Bulletins d. Newspapers
  • 54. What commercial publications provide long-range weather predictions for the year ahead? a. Almanacs b. Annual Weather Bulletins c. National Weather Prediction Bulletins d. Newspapers
  • 55. What type of forecast do major Navy units provide for their operating region? a. Area b. Flight c. Local d. Route
  • 56. What type of forecast do major Navy units provide for their operating region? a. Area b. Flight c. Local d. Route
  • 57. TIROS I - Television Infrared Observation Satellite I Weather satellites began service in 1960.
  • 58. The newest satellites are equipped with cameras that transmit pictures of cloud formations by day or night. Other sensors relate surface temperatures, fronts, storms, snow, sea ice, and cloud heights.
  • 59. Weather satellites are positioned about 900 miles from the Earth's surface, orbit the Earth every 115 minutes, and view the entire Earth three times a day.
  • 60. Geosynchronous satellites hover 22,300 miles above the equator and photograph an entire hemisphere every half an hour.
  • 61. Geosynchronous or Geostationary Satellites (GOES) A series of United States satellites that remain above a fixed point on the Earth Meteorological satellites that collect data for worldwide weather forecasting
  • 62. GOES provide spectacular pictures of whole hurricane systems and frontal weather patterns that are now a regular part of weather forecasting.
  • 63. Geosynchronous weather satellites hover how far above the earth? a. 22,300 feet b. 110,150 feet c. 11,150 miles d. 22,300 miles
  • 64. Geosynchronous weather satellites hover how far above the earth? a. 22,300 feet b. 110,150 feet c. 11,150 miles d. 22,300 miles
  • 65. Geosynchronous weather satellites photograph an entire hemisphere how many times a day? a. 3 b. 12 (every two hours) c. 24 (once an hour) d. 48 (every half hour)
  • 66. Geosynchronous weather satellites photograph an entire hemisphere how many times a day? a. 3 b. 12 (every two hours) c. 24 (once an hour) d. 48 (every half hour)
  • 67. Weather maps are printed and distributed by the National Weather Service.
  • 68. All symbols used on the maps are explained in map legends.
  • 69. Isobaric forecasting is possible by careful reading of weather maps, since all frontal zones and wind directions are carefully charted.
  • 70. What type of forecasting is possible by careful reading of weather maps? a. Isobaric b. Long-range c. Metabolic d. Synoptic
  • 71. What type of forecasting is possible by careful reading of weather maps? a. Isobaric b. Long-range c. Metabolic d. Synoptic
  • 72. The weather symbol, ══, indicates what type of weather condition? a. Fog b. Heavy snow c. Rain d. Thunderstorm
  • 73. The weather symbol, ══, indicates what type of weather condition? a. Fog b. Heavy snow c. Rain d. Thunderstorm
  • 74. Q.1. What is a flight forecast?
  • 75. Q.1. What is a flight forecast? A.1. A forecast of weather conditions on successive stages of a flight
  • 76. Q.2. What is a route forecast?
  • 77. Q.2. What is a route forecast? A.2. A forecast of weather conditions along a specific route
  • 78. Q.3. What is a synoptic forecast?
  • 79. Q.3. What is a synoptic forecast? A.3. A general or overall view
  • 80. Q.4. What is the World Meteorological Organization?
  • 81. Q.4. What is the World Meteorological Organization? A.4. An agency of the United Nations that provides the NWS with an exchange of weather information
  • 82. Q.5. What are two kinds of weather reporting?
  • 83. Q.5. What are two kinds of weather reporting? A.5. Long-range and local
  • 84. Q.6. Who typically mans a Navy weather unit?
  • 85. Q.6. Who typically mans a Navy weather unit? A.6. Trained enlisted aerographer's mates and meteorological officers
  • 86. Q.7. What is a terminal forecast?
  • 87. Q.7. What is a terminal forecast? A.7. A forecast of the weather conditions at the airfield intended for landing and takeoff
  • 88. Q.8. On ships that do not have aerographers and meteorologists, who conducts weather observations and weather reporting duties?
  • 89. Q.8. On ships that do not have aerographers and meteorologists, who conducts weather observations and weather reporting duties? A.8. Ship's navigator, assisted by trained quartermasters
  • 90. Q.9. In what year was the first weather satellite launched, and what was its name?
  • 91. Q.9. In what year was the first weather satellite launched, and what was its name? A.9. 1960, TIROS (TV and Infrared Observation Satellite)
  • 92. Q.10. Who prepares local forecasts for the Navy?
  • 93. Q.10. Who prepares local forecasts for the Navy? A.10. The local forecasts are prepared by ships or stations.
  • 94. Q.11. Who issues storm warnings for the Navy?
  • 95. Q.11. Who issues storm warnings for the Navy? A.11. NMOCs responsible for the area in which the storm is located