information of US economy since the beginning of the premature release of US FOMC data, 1994

1. UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECT OF PAST MONETARY POLICIES SINCE 1994 (propertyof king Arthur)
Effective
Dates
Target Federal
Funds Rate
Discounts Rate Reserve Requirement ($millions) Summary of Forward Guidance FOMC Statement Languages
Primary Secondary Low Reserve Tranche Exemption Economy Condition Policy Action
Growth Inflation FG QE Decision
1993 On March 23, 1993, the FOMCdecided onthat dayto make available to the public three daylater a new document to be called the minutes of the FOMC
meetingthat comprehensivelycoveredall aspects of its Februarymeeting. On November 6, 1993, despite the pressure fromChairmanRep Gonzalez, the
committee made its final determination about treatment of existing transcripts for past meetings, the committee settledonreleasing redactedlightlyedited
transcripts after 5 years lag. Later, it votedthat minutes, “would retain all substantive comments but would allow for grammatical corrections, the smoothing
of some sentences to facilitate their understanding and the correction of obvious transcription errors.” [I call it face lifting withvolbella or Botox]. A very
talenteddisclosure committee chairmanDr Roger Ferguson stated‘the absence of any disclosure of the vote immediatelyfollowing the meeting has led both
market participants and journalists on occasion, to use the number of Reserve Banks requesting discount rate changes as a proxy for the existence of dissents
from the federal fund decision. This proxy has rarely been accurate and has sometimes been quite misleading’
02/04/1994 3.25 tightening
03/22/1994 3.5 tightening
04/18/1994 3.75 tightening
05/17/1994 4.25 3.50 tightening
08/16/1994 4.75 4 tightening
11/15/1994 5.50 4.75 tightening
12/22/1994 54.0 4.2 no change
1994  Effect on Rates
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA NH Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+9.01 +8.2 +24.8 + 79.30 points +0.29 +1.63 +1.15
US Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Months 6 Months 3 years 10 years 30 years Aaa Baa
+1.27 +1.46 +1.85 +1.22 +0.78 +0.74 +0.69
 Summary:
GDP=2.7%, the unemployment rate was downat 5.5%, the inflation rate was stable at 2.7%, the DJIA rose to 3,833.40 with a gainof 79.30 points andthere
were 15 bankfailures. FEDactions reducedreserves byabout $319 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
1994 was dominated by the declineofthevalueofthedollar.OBRA93 did infactreduce Federal Gov’tconsumption but transfer topeople remained high to boostthewhole
FederalGov’tspending. Earthquakein Northridge,Ca did depress corporateprofit. TheUS economy was recovery with strong gains inemployment(29,000per month, 3.5
million total, 90% fromprivatesector). Theexpansion was driving by accelerated growthofbusiness fixed investment. Not onlypeople wereworking, they wereworking longer
hours withovertimepay.
02/01/1995 6 5.25 tightening
07/06/1995 5.75 easing
12/19/1995 5.50 easing
12/21/1995 52.0 4.3 no change
1995  Effect on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA NH Mortgage C Paper 6 M. Prime rate

2. +81.3 +78.6 +300.1 +1,283 points +0.38 +1.00 +1.68
US Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 Month 3 years 10 years 30 years Aaa Baa
+1.22 +0.93 -0.02 -0.52 -0.49 -0.37 -0.42
 Summary:
GDP=2.7%, the unemployment rate was a little upat 5.6%, the inflationrate was downat 2.5%, the DJIA rose to 5,117.10 with a gain of1,283.70 points and
there were 8 bankfailures. FED actions raisedrequiredreserves byabout $199 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
The Peso crisis had negativeeffect on US-Mexico tradebalance.The happiest news was theUS budgetdeficit $164billion below theestimatethanks to 3 questionable changes in
accounting,federalGov’tlayoffs, early retirementassets incl.military bases.The stock market did wellwhileUS sustained a rapidinvestment incomputer (imported)
01/31/1996 5.25 5 easing
12/31/1996 49.3 4.4 no change
1996  Effects on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C. Paper 6 M. Prime rate
+128.78 +62.8 +238.9 +1,331 points -0.07 -0.51 -0.56
US Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 years 10 years 30 years Aaa Baa
-0.49 -0.50 -0.26 -0.13 -0.17 -0.22 -0.15
 Summary:
GDP=3.8%, unemployment rate was downagainat 5.4%, the inflationrate was upat 3.3%, the DJIA rose to 6,448.30 with a gainof 1,331.20 points and there
were 8 bankfailures. FED actions raisedrequiredreserves byabout $298 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
The presidential election year did deliver 2 shutdowns with a loss of GDP and $400 Million of taxpayers money. Imported goods stolen jobs were recreated by domestic demand resulted
from big disposable income. It was a huge automakers strike with negative impact on vehicles and their parts sale. Tax revenues were boosted with huge payroll employment. Deficit was at
its lowest $57 billion thanks to decelerated transfer to people,....
03/25/1997 5.50 tightening
1997  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 M. Prime Rate
+202.87 +118.9 +279.4 +1,460 points -0.09 +0.20 +0.17
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3- month 6-month 3 years 10 years 30 years Aaa Baa
+0.02 +0.09 +0.11 -0.09 -0.10 -0.11 -0.19
 Summary:
GDP=4.4%, unemployment rate was downat 4.7%, the inflation rate went downat 1.7%, the DJIA rose to 7,908.30 with a gainof 1,460 points and there was
onlyone bank failure. There was noactiononrequiredreserves.
 Analytical Conclusion:
Asian and Russian debt crisis did change negatively the behavior of lenders. Job creation was rapid at 270,000 jobs per month (computers, data processing and more). Outstanding
settlement of autoworkers strikes did keep workers from squeezing more dividends from their owners of companies. Balanced Budget Act of 1997 was passed and used one year. The

3. Federal budget deficit was at its lowest since 1974 burying Monica Lewinsky affair drama news.
01/01/1998 47.8 4.7 no change
09/29/1998 5.25 easing
10/15/1998 5 4.75 easing
11/17/1998 4.75 4.50 easing
12/31/1998 46.5 4.9 no change
1998  Effects on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C. Paper 6 M. Prime Rate
+202.02 +84.9 +622.3 +1,210 points -0.64 -0.09
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3- Month 6-month 3 years 10 years 30 years Aaa Baa
-0.26 -0.33 -0.96 -1.09 -1.03 -0.73 -0.64
 Summary:
GDP=4.5%, unemployment rate was downat 4.4%, the inflation rate was downagainat 1.6%, the DJIA rose to 9,181.40 with a gainof 1,210. Points and there
were 3 bankfailures. FED actions raisedrequiredreserves byabout $193 million respectively$89 Millionand $104 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
Federal Gov’t did report its 1st surplus since 1969 after entitlements. The Unified Federal Budget moved from deficit to surplus ($69 billion) thanks to fiscal discipline, investment in
education, technology to expand export. With attractive workplace environment, bargaining power was shifted from employers to employees. High ownership did hit all time high. The
accounting firm did welcome pwc in US. US diversified investment portfolio abroad did keep the US dollar playing a major role in the global market.
06/30/1999 5 tightening
08/24/1999 5.25 4.75 tightening
11/16/1999 5.50 5 tightening
12/30/1999 44.3 5.0 no change
1999
 Effects on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C. Paper 6 Month Prime Rate
+241.73 +54.2 +1,876.6 +2,315 points -0.03 -0.35
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.15 -0.09 +0.35 +0.39 +0.29 +0.51 +0.65
 Summary:
GDP=4.8%, unemployment rate was downat 4%, the inflationrate was a little up but remained historical lowat 2.7%, the DJIA hit its highestat 11,497.10 with
a gainof 2,315.70 points andthere were 8 bankfailures. FED actions raisedrequiredreserves byabout $264 Million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by a very accelerated economic growth as the expansion entered its 9th consecutive years. As a result there was a unified budget surplus of $124.4 billion after the Fed Gov’t
trans role playing from major buyer and borrower to major saver. Fed Gov’t purchases of hardware and software was the major contributor to US and Asian job creations. FASAB was
recognized by AICPA as being general accepted accounting principles for Fed Gov’t agencies. This recognition increased its attractiveness and usabilty. The US economy did add 2.7 million
jobs and reduce SSI spending
02/02/2000 5.75 5.25 tightening

4. 03/21/2000 6 5.50 tightening
05/16/2000 6.5 6 tightening
05/19/2000 no change
12/28/2000 42.8 5.5 no change
2000  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C. Paper 6
Month
Prime Rate
+99.89 +6.6 -2,401.2 -709.1 +0.48 +1.23
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+1.19 +1.16 +0.73 +0.38 +0.07 +0.58 +0.49
 Summary:
GDP=4.1%, Unemployment rate wasdown at 3.9%, the inflationrate wasup at 3.4%, the DJIA wasdown at 10,788.00 with a losso f 709.10 points andthere
were 7 bankfailures. FEDactions raisedrequiredreserves byabout $60 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
FED Gov’t receipts were higher thanks to higher taxes. US recognized another surplus. Tightening of the monetary policy did reach the discount rate which doubled from 4.75 to 6. The
unemployment rate at its lowest with Black and other minorities advancing in the force. The co-existence of low employment rate and low inflation had been the 1st since wars. GPRA,
comparing actual performance with target goal became effective.
01/03/2001 6 5.75 easing
01/04/2001 5.5 no change
01/31/2001 5.50 5 easing
03/20/2001 5 4.5 easing
04/18/2001 4.50 4 easing
05/15/2001 4 3.5 easing
06/27/2001 3.75 3.25 easing
08/21/2001 3.5 3 easing
09/17/2001 3 2.5 easing
10/02/2001 2.5 2 easing
11/06/2001 2 1.5 easing
12/11/2001 1.75 1.25 easing
12/27/2001 41.3 5.7 no change
2001  Effects on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6-month Prime Rate
-234.65 -87.1 -520.1 -709.1 points -0.52 -2.32
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3-Month 6-Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-2.44 -2.53 -2.13 -1.01 -0.45 -0.54 -0.41
 Summary:

5. GDP=1.0%, unemployment rate was upat 5.7, inflation rate decreased at 1.6% while DJIA roseto 10,021.57 with a loss of 709.13 andthere were 4 bank
failures. FED actions raised total requiredreserves byanestimated $154 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
2001 was dominatedbythe horrific 9/11. Also, the slowdownof the economythat startedin2000 was brought downto the recession phase bythe effects of
9/11. Both events resulted to low confidence but U.S people were fearless about the future and theykept shopping to boost p ersonal consumptionspending.
9/11 event andreruninIraqdidcreate the whole business investment uncertaintiesresulting to FEDimpositionof expansionarymeasures including the
invitationto use the discount window. The goodnews wasthat Federal Gov’t ranthe 2nd largest budget surplus inhistoryin2001 and paidthe 2nd largest
amount of debt inhistory.
11/06/2002 1.25 0.75 N.A easing
12/26/2002 N.A 42.1 6.0 no change
2002  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C. Paper 6-month Prime Rate
-198.64 -97 -614.9 -1,679 points -0.57 -2.24
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-1.82 -1.7 -0.99 -0.41 -0.06 -0.59 -0.15
 Summary:
GDP=1.7%, the unemployment rate increasedto 6.0%, inflationrate also increasedto 2.4% while DJIA went downat 8,341.63 with a loss of1,679.9 points and
there were 11 bankfailures. FEDactions loweredtotalrequiredreserves byanestimated$210 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
2002 was dominated by the Enron case and its relatives in crime DOT.com and telecom fraud cases. The corporate business failure became too many vices to add to the aftermath of 9/11
and recession. All these events did produce several regulations to lessen the toll to US economy and trigger a recovery. SOX Act was enacted to bring the transparency to the corporate
disclosure. EGTRRA was enacted to give tax relief to people and corporation. JCAA was enacted to boost the returnship of workers. But the US economy remained what some called
recession while others called slow recovery. Despite being unemployed, tax relief and other assistances helped Americans shopped to boost personal consumption. Also, US export did well
thanks to high tech recovery and pick-up economy abroad.
01/09/2003 2.25 2.75 no change
06/25/2003 1.00 2.00 2.50 easing
12/25/2003 45.4 6.6 no change
2003  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
-28.7 +99.8 +667.8 +2,112 points -0.63 -0.55
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.61 -0.63 -1.00 -0.6 ------ -0.82 -1.03
 Summary:
GDP=2.9%, the unemployment rate decreasedto 5.7%, inflationrate decreased to 1.9% while DJIA rose to 10,453.9 with a gainof 2,112.3 points andthere
were 3 bankfailures. FED actions lowered total requiredreserves byanestimated $689 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:

6. 2003 was marked by a rapid recovery of the US economy. The curative fiscal and monetary measures to cure the economic from its recession and too many scandals did produce a healthy
growth and unemployment rate moved from 6.3 (icu) to 5.7%. Job and Growth bill became a law to promote investment, job creation and growth. With a stimulative fiscal policy,
accommodated monetary policy, favorable financial condition and attractive environment, consumer confidence was back and Americans did it again, they were buying goods, building
houses and renovating tents.
06/30/2004 1.25 2.25 2.75 tightening
08/10/2004 1.50 2.50 3.00 tightening
09/21/2004 1.75 2.75 3.25 tightening
11/10/2004 2.00 3.00 3.50 tightening
12/14/2004 2.25 3.25 3.75 tightening
12/23/2004 47.6 7.0 no change
2004  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6-month Prime Rate
+165.42 +172.1 +329.1 points -0.03 +0.22
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+0.35 +0.5 +0.68 +0.26 ........... -0.04 -0.38
 Summary:
GDP=3.8%, the unemployment rate was cut to 5.4%, inflationrate increasedto 3.3% while DJIA rose to 10,783.01 with a gainof 329.1 points andthere were 4
bank failures. FED actions loweredtotal required reserves byan estimated$506 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
2004 was dominated by the devastating hurricane, Katrina and a solid performance of the US economy. The robust economy produced 2.2 million new jobs available to people who could and
wanted to work. This huge expansion was driven by a solid output growth and more demand for skilled workers to join the force. Remedies including tax relief, forward to state for job
creation and others helped to calm a recurring dangerous deficit. Another concern for insurance and others was Katrina that claimed lives, destroyed homes and displaced a million people.
Fed raised interest rates to cope with a solid economy despite high energy prices.
02/02/2005 2.50 3.50 4.00 tightening
03/22/2005 2.75 3.75 4.25 tightening
05/03/2005 3.00 4.00 4.50 tightening
06/30/2005 3.25 4.25 4.75 tightening
08/09/2005 3.50 4.50 5.00 tightening
09/20/2005 3.75 4.75 5.25 tightening
11/01/2005 4.00 5.00 5.50 tightening
12/13/2005 4.25 5.25 5.75 tightening
12/23/2005 48.3 7.8 no change
2005  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6-month Prime Rate
+76.58 +29.9 -65;51 points +0.17 +1.85
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6-Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+1.8 +1.83 +115 +0.07 ........... -0.39 -0.33

7.  Summary:
GDP=3.5%, the unemployment rate didshow improvement withanother decrease to 3.4%, inflation rate slightlyincreasedto 3.4% while DJIAwas downat
10,717.5 with a loss of65.51 points and there was 0 bank failure. FED actions lowered total requiredreserves byanestimated $369 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominatedby persistentsolid performance ofUS economy. GDP was 3.5. Unemployment ratewas at its bottom4.7%.But,likeany goodeconomic environment, itdid
result into shortageofskilled workers. Without goodreadiness ofworkers (drug andtraining), companies can move their plants abroad. With a goodlabormarket (4.7 million
new job) and huge confidenceabout tomorrow, Americans shopped and delivered a hugeconsumer consumption score. But, the inflationwas a concernat FED, all its monetary
policies decisions in2005were intendedto foster sustainable expansion and promotea return tolowandstableinflation
01/31/2006 4.50 5.50 6.00 solid relatively
low
tightening
03/28/2006 4.75 5.75 6.25 rebounded
strongly
remain
contained
tightening
05/10/2006 5.00 6.00 6.50 likelyto
moderate
elevated tightening
06/29/2006 5.25 6.25 6.75 moderated elevated tightening
12/21/2006 45.8 8.5 slowed elevated no change
2006  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6-Month Prime Rate
+103.23 +209.9 +1,746.6 points +0.69 1.77
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+1.57 +1.4 +0.84 +0.51 ............ +0.35 +0.42
 Summary:
GDP=2.9%, the unemployment rate trouble rebounded with4.4%, the inflation rate decreasedjust a little above its target 2% at 2.5% while DJIArose to
12,463.15 with a gain of1,745.6 points and there was 0 bankfailure. FEDactions raisedtotal required reserves byan estimated $146 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
Mortgage Backed Securities scandals dominated this year economic news leading to low investor confidence in the credit performance. Luckily FED specialized facilities and TARP from US
treasury did help to limit the spillover to other parts of the economy. WH called it a continued expansion with 45 consecutive months of job growth, FED downgraded it as a slowdown with
increased in crude oil prices affecting household spending. The labor market did create 187,000 jobs per month with unemployment rate at 4.6%. Food and energy did keep inflation in the
going concern list. For sure, vehicles sale was down
08/17/2007 5.75 6.25 moderated improved
modestly
no change
09/18/2007 4.75 5.25 5.75 moderated improved
modestly
“...increase
d the
uncertainty
surroundin
g the eco
outlook.”
easing
10/31/2007 4.50 5.00 5.50 solidand
then
slowed
improved
modestly
“...the
upside risks
inflation
easing

8. roughly
balance the
downside
risks to
growth.”
12/11/2007 4.25 4.75 5.25 slowing improved
modestly
“....
increased
the
uncertainty
surroundin
g the
outlook ...”
easing
12/20/2007 43.9 9.3 no change
2007  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 Month Prime Rate
+166.72 +236.9 + 801.7 points -0.22 +0.09
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.32 -0.32 -0.42 -0.17 -0.07 -0.03 +0
 Summary:
GDP=1.9%, the unemployment rate increasedagainto 5.0%, the inflationrate increasedagainto 4.1% while DJIA rose to 13,264.82 witha gain of801.7 points
and there were 3 bankfailures. FED actions raised total requiredreserves byanestimated$ 57 million.
 Analytical Conclusion
It was dominated by either a contraction (from the White House) or recovery (FED and others). It was fear in the environment dictated by uncertainties, weak housing sector and tight credit
market. The MBS was the driving force of the economic environment with huge write downs and downsizing making the labor market very tight. In the wake of mounting problems with the
subprime (high risk) mortgages, financial market was unsettled because of concerns about the financial health of some firms and the possibility of contagion to the non financial sector.
01/22/2008 3.50 4.00 4.50 downside risk
to growth
moderate appreciable
downside
risk to
growth
remain
easing
01/30/2008 3.00 3.50 4.00 similar to
01/22/20
08
easing
03/17/2008 3.25 3.75 slowed elevated similar to
01/22/20
08
no change
03/18/2008 2.25 2.50 3.00 easing
04/30/2008 2.00 2.25 2.75 softer elevated “...promote
moderate
growth
over
easing

9. time...”
10/08/2008 1.50 1.75 2.25 easing
10/29/2008 1.00 1.25 1.75 slowed
markedly
high downside
risk to
growth
remain
easing
12/16/2008 0-0.25 0.50 1.00 weakened
further
diminished
appreciably
weak eco
conditions
are likely to
warrant
exceptional
low levels
easing
2008  Effects on Rates:
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6-month Prime Rate
-257.14 -1,075.2 -4,488 points -0.36 -2.96
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-2.93 -2.77 -2.11 -0.97 -0.56 +0.07 +0.97
 Summary:
GDP=-0.1%, the unemployment rate increased again to 7.3% whenthe inflationrate was close to zeroat =0.1%, DJIA was downat 8,776.4 witha loss of
4,488.4 points and there were 25 bank failures. FECactions raised totalrequiredreserves byanestimated $146 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
This year was dominated by the financial crisis. The turmoil in financial market that started on Wall Street became global credit market crisis. All major economic sectors did recognize a low
performance. The deterioration of job market accelerated. As investor uncertainties rose, consumer confidence was down to reduce demand and personal consumption. The Gov’t
sponsored entities, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, were placed into conservatorship. A huge casualty was Lehman Brothers with its filing of bankruptcy. Securitization market was shutdown
affecting the whole mutual fund market. AIG was lucky to receive financial assistance from FED. FED implemented financial crisis measures.
01/01/2009 44.4 10.3 declined
steeply
persisted
below
mandate
“...likely to
warrant
exceptionall
y low
levels...”
purchase no change
12/31/2009 55.2 10.7 continued
to pick up
turned up “...likely to
warrant
exceptional
low
level...for an
extended
period.”
slow
purchase
no change
2009  Effects on Rates:
S& P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 Month Prime Rate
-271.14 +692.1 -1,651 points -0.91 -1.84
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa

10. -1.32 -1.42 -0.81 -0.4 -0.17 -0.32 -0.15
 Summary:
GDP=-2.5%, unemployment rate was at its free fallat 9.9%, inflation rate didimprove upjust above its target at 2.7%, DJIA rose to 10,428.04 witha gain of
1,651.6 points and there were 140 bank failures. FED actions loweredtotal required reserves byan estimated$1.51 billion.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by recovery in the financial market. This recovery was driven by a huge consumer spending (therefore high confidence), accommodative monetary policies and supportive
fiscal policies. US Trade rebounded backed by US recovery and foreign demand (pick-up in some countries). Troubled Asset Relief Program from US Treasury did create SCAP (supervisory
capital assessment program, 2 stress tests of American largest banks) to boost investor confidence in financial entities and they became more optimistic. Do they believe in the valuation
from the marketplace? I don’t know. Butt delinquency and charge of rates of commercial banks increased. Household credit market was very selective that household debt experienced its
first decline since 1951. Job market lagging but FED was confident and closing its specialized facilities.
02/19/2010 0.75 1.25 continued
to
strengthen
remained
subdue
similar to
12/16/20
09
to close no change
12/30/2010 58.8 10.7 recoveryis
continuing
but at
insufficient
rate
trend
downward
likelyto
warrant
exception
allylow
level for
extended
period
no change
2010  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C .Paper 6 Month Prime rate
+191.92 +583.6 +1,149 points -0.34 +0
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.02 -0.09 -0.32 -0.04 +0.17 -0.37 -1.26
 Summary:
GDP=2.6%, unemployment rate slightlydecreasedbut remained highat 9.3%, inflationrate was downbelow its target goal at 1.5% while DJIA rose to
11,577.51 with 1,149.45 points andthere were 157 bank failures. FED actions loweredtotal required reserves byan estimated $353 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by a slow recovery and the passage of Dodd Frank Act. Some sectors were still raising concern about a durability of the recovery. Gov’t policies and monetary policies did
help support the recovery. Recovery Act, Hiring Incentive to Restore Employment and others did help the labor market comeback with 1.1 million new jobs. FED did stimulate the MBS market
by reinvesting principal repayments of holdings and had a plan to purchase $600 Billion in Treasury securities. Stress in financial market was easing. Consumer confidence and spending were
restored.
12/29/2011 71.0 11.5 expanding
moderately
moderate
d
warrant
exception
allylow
levels ..at
least
through
no change

11. mid 2013
2011  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H
Mortgage
C Paper 6 Month Prime Rate
+127.67 -47.65 +640 points -0.35 +0
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.08 -0.1 -0.36 -0.44 -0.34 -0.3 -0.38
 Summary:
GDP=1.6%, unemployment rate decreasedagainto 8.5%, inflationrate wasup at 3.0%, DJIA roseto 12,217.56 with a gainof 640.05 points and there were 92
bank failures. FEDactions didlower total required reserves byan estimated $1.33 billion.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominatedbythe Europeanfinancial crisis (ItalyandSpain), moderate pace of expansionandslow downglobal growth. Then, the earthquake inJapan
did impact negativelyUS export andproduction in USmotor vehiclesplants. Inflationwas still high;all items deceleratedexcept foodandoilprices. Labor
market improved with165,000 jobs per month. “ one ofthe fundamental tenets has beenthat ifyou workhard, youcando well enoughto raise a family, own
a house, sendyour kids to college, andput a little more awayfor retirement. That is the promise of America.’
12/27/2012 79.5 12.4 expand
moderately
turning
somewhat
below
low levelas
long as the
unemploy
ment rate
remains
above
6.5%, ...
no change
2012  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 Month Prime rate
+111.97 +414.36 + 886.6 points -0.79 +0
US Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+0.03 +0.03 -0.37 -0.98 -0.99 -0.97 -0.72
 Summary:
GDP=2.2%, unemployment rate improved to the level of 7.8%, inflationrate wasdown to 1.7% below FEDtarget, DJIA rose to 13,104.14 with a gain of886.6
points andthere were 51 bank failures. FED actions didlower totalrequiredreserves byanestimated$971 million.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by European Sovereign Debt while recovering from global crisis. How can we keep that tenet promise alive in abusing, undervaluation and non readiness environment where millions of
Americans hard work and dedication are not rewarded? The labor market did produce 6.1 million jobs. Hurricane Sandy did impair Northeast economy with $35 billion loss. Monetary policy remained
very accommodative with an announcement of the 1st
time linking its forward guidance for the main policy from the interest rate to a specific level of the unemployment rate. What a Twist? FED
implemented the 1st
installment of Maturity Extension Program

12. 2013  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+264.19 +1157.08 +3,472 points 0.32 +0
US Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.03 -0.04 +0.16 +0.55 +0.53 +0,57 +0.16
 Summary:
GDP=1.8%, unemployment rate improved again to the level of 6.7%, inflationrate wascut to 1.5% below its target goal, DJIA rose to 16,576.6 with a gainof
3,472.5 points and there were 24 bank failures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by a continued recovery of the US economy with a gain of 2.4 million new jobs from the private sector. Can hard work pay every American at last? Unemployment rate moved from 7.5
% (icu) to 6.6%. But a power game in Washington DC did create a partial shutdown and fiscal policy uncertainties. A boost of confidence did deliver a huge personal consumption growth and homebuilding
growth. Inflation was brought down despite a small increase in gasoline prices. Monetary policy remained accommodative with the FED employing both forward guidance for federal fund rate and
purchase of long term securities. FED kept its promise by expanding its holding of MBS
01/23/2014 89.0 13.3 pickedup persist
below its
mandates
similar to
12/2012
no change
2014  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+287.58 +559.49 +1,246 points +0.19 +0
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
-0.03 -0.03 +0.36 +0.19 -0.11 -008 -0.22
 Summary:
GDP=2.5%, unemployment rate was downat 5.6%, inflation rate was downagainclose to zero at 0.8% while DJIA rose to 17,823.07 witha gain of1,246.41
points and there were 18 bank failures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
2014 was dominated by the recovery and the implementation of Dodd Frank Act. FED proposed to establish a variety of enhanced prudential standard (2 stress tests) from Dodd Frank Act of 2010. US
banking system continued to recover from crisis. It was expanded household purchasing power. Labor participation during Obama era remained very low may be because of his entitlement policy and
easy transfer to people. Unemployment rate did hide the fact that a huge number of people was working P/T or below their skills when they would prefer full-time jobs or positions tied to their skills.
01/22/2015 103.6 14.5 expanding
at solid
pace
declined
further
below its
mandates
similar to
12/2012
no change
12/16/2015 0.25-0.5 expanding
moderately
continued
to run
below its
mandates
warrant
only
gradual
increases
for
tightening

13. sometimes
12/17/2015 1.00 1.50 no change
2015  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+69.69 +271.36 -398 points -0.32 +0.01
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+0.03 +0.11 +0.12 -0.4 -0.5 -0.27 +0.15
 Summary:
GDP=2.9%, the unemployment rate was down to cope withexpansionat 5.0%, inflation rate was againa ‘Japanese’ puzzle at 0.7% close to zero while DJIA was
down at 17,425.03 with a lossof 398.04 points andthere were 8 bankfailures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by global financial uncertainties and extension of recovery. The spillover of slowing pace of China growth did affected negatively commodities exporting countries. Every item in the US
economy rose except labor participation rate. Obama entitlement policy kept people mostly minority out of the force. Other people continued to work part-time or low skilled positions when they
deserved better. How could they send their kids to college? Another bad forecast of 3 Guinness record snowstorms. The increase in the FED assets had coincide with large increase in reserves held by
banks. FED chair Yellen ‘purchase of longer term securities by the central bank can be viewed as a shift in supply that tends to pus h up the price and drive down the yields on those securities.’
01/21/2016 110.2 15.2 slowed similar to
04/2015
similar to
12/2015
no change
12/14/2016 0.5-0.75 tightening
12/15/2016 1.25 1.75 expanding at
moderate
pace
increased
but below
mandates
no change
2016  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+93.58 +375.61 +2,337 points -0.2 +0.25
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 Month 6 Month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+0.27 +0.29 -0.02 -0.3 -0.25 -0.22 -0.28
 Summary:
GDP=1.6%, the unemployment rate was cut to a manageable level of4.7%, inflationrate was upjust slightlyabove FED target at 2.1%, DJIA rose to 19,762.6
with a gainof 2337.57 points andthere were 6 bankfailures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by a continued recovery and again global financial uncertainties. Strong labor market lifted the economy again to a new level of recovery. Labor force participation rate was up slightly for
the 1st
time lifted by part timers who were waiting for full time. There was no real returnship performance. Consumer confidence rose but there were still red tapes that needed to be cut in order to boost
a weak business investment market. Long term treasury yields and mortgage rate moved up from their low level but still quite low by historic standards. Treasury securities declined may be because of
ACA (Affordable Care Act). Huge corporate debt remained a concern at FED meetings
01/19/2017 115.1 15.5 similar to
12/2016
similar to
12/2016
no change
03/15/2017 0.75-1.00 similar to
12/2016
similar to
12/2016
tightening

14. 03/16/2017 1.50 2.00 no change
06/14/2017 1.00-1.25 rising
moderately
so far this
year
declined
and below
its
mandates
tightening
06/15/2017 1.75 2.25 no change
12/13/2017 1.25-1.50 rising at solid
rate
declined
and below
its
mandates
tightening
12/14/2017 2.00 2.50 no change
2017  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime rate
+354.43 +1520.37 +4,956 points +0.34 +0.59
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 years Aaa Baa
+0.61 +0.59 +0.58 +0.49 +0.3 +0.07 -0.28
 Summary:
GDP=4%, the unemployment rate was again downat 4.1%, inflationrate was stable at 2.1%, DJIA rose to 24,719.12 with a gaino f 4,956.62 points andthere
were 8 bankfailures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by a strong economically notable acceleration of US economy with growth in real GDP, decrease in unemployment rate to 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. It added 2.2 million new non farm
jobs averaging 181,000 per month. Unemployment rates have declined across demographic groups but the inequality he did inherit from the Obama remained: white unemployment rate was 3.7%,
Latinos ( no lesbians, Bi-den?) was 5% and Black was 7.3%. Minority did suffer from a Minority President who put them in a lifetime dependent program instead of workplace returnship. Growth of labor
compensation was modest may be to cut alarming corporate debts. While oil and metal prices increased, the inflation remained below its target (FED target 2%). Borrowing condition for consumers
remained generally favorable. Tax Cut and Jobs Act was passed and signed as a pro-growth fiscal policy
01/18/2018 122.3 16.0 rising at solid
rate
running
below its
mandates
Below level
that are
expected to
prevail in the
longer run.
no change
03/21/2018 1.50-1.75 risingat
moderate
rate
running
below its
mandates
similar to
12/2017
tightening
03/22/2018 2.25 2.75 no change
06/13/2018 1.75-2.00 risingat
solidrate
moved
close to 2
percent
tightening
06/14/2018 2.50 3.00 no change
09/26/2018 2.00-2.25 risingat the
strong rate
remain
near 2 %,
its
tightening

15. mandates
09/27/2018 2.75 3.25 no change
12/19/2018 2.25-2.50 similar to
09/2018
similar
09/2018
tightening
12/20/2018 3.00 3.50 no change
2018  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime rate
+297.13 -268.11 -1,391 points +0.55 +0.81
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds
3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+1 +1.05 +1.05 +0.58 +0.51 +0.19 +0.36
 Summary:
GDP=2.9, the unemployment rate did hit a comfortable level of 3.9%, inflationrate was slightlybelow the target at 1.9%, DJIA was downto 23,327.46 with a
loss of 1391.76 points and there was 0 bank failure.
 Analytical Conclusion:
It was dominated by very attractive labor market ever and softer global economic conditions. National unemployment rate did reach 3.7% against all forecasts, the lowest in 50 years. Unemployment
among women fell to 3.3 %, the lowest rate since 1953. Poverty rate for both Black and Hispanic was at record low with 223,00 0 new jobs per month. It was a need for skilled workers. First Step Act was
passed to rehabilitate jail veterans. Did they turn them into human capital? Labor productivity growth in the non-farm business sector rose from a pre-Tax Cut and Jobs Act. In response to this excellent
labor market, FOMC increased its target and raised federal fund rates. Confidence was high in the teen and minorities for the 1st time that everyone shopped and consumer spending ended up
representing 69% of GDP. Peaceful global negotiations did deliver lower oil prices and therefore lower inflation (low import prices or powerful currency). Partial shutdown as another attempt against the
people well-being did close the year.
01/17/2019 124.2 16.3 risingat the
strong rate
remain near
2 %, its
mandates
“... will be
patient...”
no change
07/31/2019 2.00-2.25 risingat a
moderate
rate
running
below 2%,
its
mandates
“...uncertai
nties about
its outlook
remain..”
easing
08/01/2019 2.75 3.25 no change
09/18/2019 1.75-2.00 similar to
07/31/2019
similar at
7/31/2019
similar to
7/31/2019
easing
09/19/2019 2.50 3.00 no change
10/30/2019 1.50-1.75 similar to
07/31/2019
similar to
7/31/2019
similar to
7/31/2019
easing
10/31/2019 2.25 2.75 no change
12/11/2019 1.50-1.75 similar to
7/31/2019
similar to
7/31/2019
similar to
7/31/2019
no change
2019  Effects on Rates:
S & P 500 NYSE NASDAQ DJIA N.H Mortgage C Paper 6 month Prime Rate
+167.15 +2337.32 + 5,948 points -0.6 +0.37
U.S Treasuries Corporate Bonds

16. 3 month 6 month 3 Years 10 Years 30 Years Aaa Baa
+0.14 -0.03 -0.69 -0.77 -0.53 -0.54 -0.42
 Summary:
GDP=2.3%, unemployment rate, despite the global slowdown, didreachan unprecedent 3.5%, inflationrate wasup to a manageable level of 2.3% just a little
above FEDtarget goal, DJIA rose to 29,276.34 witha gainof 5,948.8 points andthere were 4 Bankfailures.
 Analytical Conclusion:
Despite globalslowdown, Trumpdiddeliver another year full of recordhighs (no Hunter type of high). It was a contraction without a recessionputting US ontop
alone without anysecond countrylike after the WWII.
PS: If you want to knowmore about 2019 scorecard, readmypost here , TrumpEconomy Review ad balanced of power (Part I), published January11, 2020
01/16/2020 127.5 16.9 no change
01/29/2020 1.50-1.75 risingat
moderate
rate
running
below 2%
the
committe
e judges..
no change
03/04/2020 1.00-1.25 1.75 2.25 easing
03/16/2020 0.00-0.25 0.25 0.75 [after] Feb.,
disrupted
economic
activity
similar to
1/29/2020
The
Committee
expects...
has
weathered.
..on track.
easing