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PETO’SPARADOX
AnnThomas
Theevolutionofmulticellularity requiredthesuppressionofcancer.Ifevery
cellhassomechanceofbecomingcancerous,large,long-livedorganismsshould
haveanincreased riskofdevelopingcancercomparedtosmall,short-lived
organisms.Thelackofcorrelationbetween bodysizeandcancer riskisknownas
Peto’sParadox.
Beforetalkingaboutthisparadox,weneedtofirstunderstand howthe
mechanismofcancertakesplaceinanorganism.
MECHANISMOFCANCER
Inthesimplestsense,ourbodiesaremadeupofcells.Andtypically thesecellswillbedividing.Itisnotunusualforacelltodivide
andsometimesdieandreplacethemselveswithmorecells.Butwhathappenstocanceristhatyougetsomekindofamutation tothedna
ofthecellandyougetunregulatedcellproliferation.Thecellwillstarttodivideuncontrollablyandovertimeyouwillendupwith
thisuncontrolledcellmassgrowth anditmightbesomethinglikeatumour.
MUTATION
Thetheoryofcancerinitiation andprogressionisdeeplyrootedinevolutionaryandecologicalconcepts.Cancerdevelopsthrough
somaticevolution,withgeneticandepigeneticinstability generatingfitnessvariationamongthecellsofabody
TWOTYPESOFGENES
1. Oncogenes
Theyareinvolvedinnormalcellgrowthandproliferation.Theyarenormalgenesandarenotinherentlybad.Buttheproblemarises
whenamutationoccursinoneofthesegenes.Ifyouweretoincreasetheactivityofoncogenes,therewouldbetoomuchcell growth
andcellactivity,andthatcanledtoarealproblem.
2.Tumoursuppressors
Duringcellcycle,itisnormalforcellstoslowdownitsnormalactivitieslikeproteinproduction,etc.,inordertodivide.When
thesecellsgetsmutated,thereisadecreaseinactivityofthesesuppressorsandslowsdowncellcycle.
Hence,boththesegeneswhenmutated, resultsintonsandtonsofcellgrowthandactivity,buttheyworkindifferentways.
Howdoesourbodyreacttocancer:
Thesimplest wayourbodycandealwiththeproblemisbyidentifying thecellthathasundergoneaproblematicmutation.Andonceit
does,itessentiallysendsthatcelltoitsdeathinaprocesscalledasAPOPTOSIS(CELLDEATH).Itisaverybasicbutpowerfulwaytodeal
withcancer.
APOPTOSIS(CELLDEATH)
Butwhenyouhaveamutation inyouroncogenesortumoursuppressorgene,itisverylikelytoendupwiththiscellmass.
Selectionattheleveloforganismshasledtotheevolutionoftumorsuppressormechanisms,suchascellcyclecheckpoints and
apoptosis,whichactassafe-guardstopreventsomaticmutations frompropagatinginthecellpopulation.Nonetheless,canceroccurs
atastonishinglyhighratesandcanberesponsiblefor20–46%oftotaldeathsinmulticellular animalsrangingfrommollusksto
mammals
Somaticevolutionandthedevelopment ofcancer
Somaticcellsintumourssatisfythethreenecessaryandsufficientconditionsfornatural selection:
1. Theremustbeavariationwithinapopulation.Atumourisaheterogenouspopulationofcellswithsomatic
geneticandepigeneticalterations.
2. Thevariationsmustbeheritable.Geneticandepigeneticalterationsareinheritedbybothdaughtercellswhena
celldivides.
3. Theremustbedifferentialsurvivalandreproduction.Insomecases,thegeneticandepigeneticmutationsprovide
cellswithsurvivaland?orreproductiveadvantagesoverothercells.
Thegeneticandepigeneticchangesinsomaticcellscanresultinthesix‘hallmarksofcancer’,allofwhich
provideafitnessadvantagetosomaticcells:
1. Selfsufficiencyofgrowthsignals
2. Insensitivitytoanti-growthsignals
3. Evasionofapoptosis
4. Sustainedangiogenesis
5. Limitlessreplicativepotential(stabilizationoftelomeres)
6. Theabilitytoinvadetissueandmetastasize
THEPARADOX
Thechallengeofsuppressingsomaticevolutiondramaticallyincreaseswithlargerbodiesandlongerlifespans.Becausecancer developsthroughtheaccumulation
ofmutations,eachproliferatingcellisatriskofmalignanttransformation,assumingallproliferatingcellshavesimilarprobabilitiesofmutation.
Therefore,ifanorganismhasmorecells,i.e.morechancestoinitiateatumor,theprobabilityofgettingcancershouldincrease.Similarly,ifanorganismhasan
extendedlifespan,itscellshavemoretimetoaccumulatemutations.Becausetheprobabilityofcarcinogenesisisanincreasingfunctionofage,anorganism’s
lifetimeriskofcancershouldalsoscalewithitslifespan.Itiswellknownthatlargerorganismsgenerallyhavelongerlifespanswhichexacerbatesthisproblem.
Lifespan
Size
Thereappearstobenocorrelationbetweenbodysize,longevityandcanceracrossspeciesandtheabsenceofsucha
relationshipisreferredtoasPETO’SPARADOX.
CalabreseandShibatadevisedasimplemathematicalequationtoexpresstheprobabilityofahumandevelopingcolorectalcancer.Their
equationproducesresultswhichcloselymatchdatafromtheSEERProgram.Theprobabilityofanindividualdevelopingcancerwasgivenby
P=1-(1-(1-(1-u)d)k)Nm
Whereuisthemutationratepergeneperdivision,disthenumberofstemcelldivisionssincebirth,kisthenumberofrate
limitingmutationsrequired forcancertooccur,Nisthenumberofeffectivestemcellspercryptandmisthenumberofper
colon.
Usingthisrationale,theyincreasedtheparameterm from1.5x103to1.5x1010toseehowthetotalnumberofstem
cellsinthecolonchangesthelifetimeriskofdevelopingcancer.Whenbluewhalethatis1,000timesthesizeofhuman, was
usedasanexample,wherem equaledto1.5x1010cryts.theanalysisrevealedthatover50%ofbluewhaleswoulddevelopcancer
byage50andallwouldhavecancerbyage80.Thechanceofahumangettingcancerbyage90isonlyabout2.5%.Itis
implausiblethat100%ofbluewhalesactuallygetcancerbyage80.Thoughwedon’tknowhowoftentheygetcancer,theyhave
beenreportedtooccasionallyhaveothercancersandliveover100years.Thismodelsuggeststhatthereissomething
fundamentallydifferentintheinitiationandprogressionofcancerinlarge,long-livedanimals,likewhales,comparedto
humans.
Interestingly,withinaspecies,sizeisassociatedwithanincreasedcancerrisk.Inhumans,3–4mmabovetheaverage
leglengthresultsinan80%higherriskofnonsmoking-relatedcancers.Also,childrenwithbonecancerstendtobe
tallerandosteosarcomasoccurinlargedogs200timesmorefrequentlythansmallandmediumbreeds.Therehaslikely
notbeenenoughtimetoevolveadditionalmechanismstoprotectthemfromthisincreasedriskandcounteractthe
extremeartificialselectionforsize.
Thissuggeststhatanimalswhichevolvedtobelarger asaspeciesdevelopedmechanismstooffsetthisincreased
cancerrisk;whileaboveaverageindividualsdonotpossessadditionaldefensescomparedtosmallerorganismswithin
theirspecies,andthereforefallvictimtocancerwithgreaterprobability.Thisdivergenttrendwithinversusbetween
speciesisanexampleofSimpson’sparadox.
HypothesestoresolvePeto’sParadox
LimitedresearcheffortshavebeenfocusedonresolvingPeto’sParadox.However,therearemanyhypothesesthatmight explain
howorganismscouldovercometheburdenofcancerdespiteanincreasednumberofcellsandextendedlifespan.Somehavebeen
previouslyproposedandothersarerelativelynew.Largebodiesevolvedindependentlyalongmultiple lineages;therefore,we wouldnot
expectthatalllarge,long-livedanimalshaveevolvedthesamemechanismstosuppresscancer,unlessthesuppressionstemsfrom an
innatecharacteristiccommontoalllargerorganisms.Differencesindietandcarcinogenicexposures(including pathogens,which
areonlyassociatedwith15%ofhumancancers)areunlikelyexplanationsbecausetherearemany-folddifferencesinsizebetween
organismswithsimilarenvironments(e.g.,dolphinsandwhales)andsimilardiets(e.g.,elephantsandmicearebothherbivores).
Somescientistshaveputforwardtheirtheoriestowhythisparadoxoccurs:
Oneofthepapersrelatedtheparadoxtowhattheycall the ‘GuardianoftheGenome’-TP53
TP53codesforaproteinP53whichplaysitsroleinconservingthestabilitybypreventinggenomemutation. HenceTP53 isclassifiedasatumor
suppressor gene.
p53hasmanymechanismsofanticancerfunction andplaysarole inapoptosis, genomic stability,andinhibitionof angiogenesis.In
itsanti-cancerrole,p53works through severalmechanisms:
ItcanactivateDNArepairproteinswhenDNAhassustaineddamage.Thus,itmaybeanimportantfactorin aging.
ItcanarrestgrowthbyholdingthecellcycleattheG1/SregulationpointonDNAdamagerecognition(ifitholdsthecellhereforlongenough,theDNA
repairproteinswillhavetimetofixthedamageandthecellwillbeallowedtocontinuethecellcycle).
Itcaninitiateapoptosis(i.e.,programmedcelldeath)ifDNAdamageprovestobeirreparable.
IftheTP53 geneisdamaged,tumorsuppressionisseverelycompromised.The TP53 genecanalsobemodifiedby mutagens,increasingthelikelihoodfor
uncontrolledcelldivision.Morethan50percentofhumantumorscontainamutationordeletionoftheTP53gene. Lossofp53createsgenomicinstabilitythat
mostoftenresultsinananeuploidyphenotype.
RelationofP53toPeto’sParadox
HumanshaveonecopyoftheP53gene,ie.,weinheritonecopyfromourparentseach.SowecansaywehavetwoallelesofP53.
SomepeoplearebornwithadiseasecalledaLiFraumeniSyndrome.SuchpeoplehaveonlyonefunctionalalleleoftheP53genome.And
thisresultsin90%lifetimeriskofcancer.Andforwomen,it’salmosta100%.
Nowtheresearchscientistsworkedwithelephantstofindouttherootcauseoftheparadox.
Itwasfoundthattheelephantshave20copiesofthisp53genome,ie.,40alleles.Andalso,theyfoundthatelephantshaveanincreased
sensitivitytoDNAdamage.Andonplotting agraphbetweenanelephant,ahealthyhumanandahumanwithLiFraumeniSyndrome and
thefrequencyofoccurrenceofapoptosis,itshowed:
apoptosis
LFS Humans Elephants
P53 1/2 1 20
Thisshowedthatitonlytookalittle bitofcelldamagetoactivatethep53pathway.Andthiswhyelephantsorallbig
animalsdon’tgetcancerattherateweexpect.
TumorSuppressionMechanisms thatmightvaryacrossLarge,Long-
livedSpecies
1. LowerSomaticMutationRates
Iflargeanimalshavelowersomaticmutationratespercellgeneration,thenmorecelldivisionswouldneedtooccur,comparedtosmaller
animals,inorderforacelltoacquirethenecessarymutationstobecomemalignant.Mutationrateisafunctionoftheerror rateandtherateatwhich
theseerrorsarerepaired.ThiscouldbeachievedthroughanumberofmechanismsincludingbetterDNAdamagedetectionandrepairmechanisms.However,
experimentaldataseemtosuggestthatmiceandhumanshavecomparablemutationrates,thoughbettermethodstomeasuresomaticmutationratesin
vivoareneededtoexplorethishypothesis.
2. RedundancyofTumorSuppressorGenes
Addedredundancyoftumorsuppressorgenescouldalsosuppresscancerinlargeanimals byrequiringmoremutationstooccur toproducea
malignantphenotype.Humancellsrequiremoremutationsthanmousecellstocreateimmortalizedcultures.BoththeRbandp53 pathwaysmustbeknocked
outtoimmortalizehumanfibroblastswhilemousecellsrequireonlythep53pathwaytobeinactivated.Micegeneticallyengineeredtohaveextracopies
ofTrp53 orCdkn2A haveincreasedtumorresistance.Interestingly,thecurrentbuildoftheelephantgenomehas12orthologsofthehumangene TP53,in
additiontoonecopyofthegenesthatencodep73andp63.Thehumangenomeonlyhasoneofeachofthesegenes(TP53,TP63,TP73)asdiscussedpreviously.
3.Lowerselectiveadvantageofmutantcells
Ahaploinsufficientgeneinmicecouldbecompletelyrecessiveinalargeranimal,requiringmutationstooccuronbothallelesinorderto
gainaselectiveadvantageoverneighboringcellsduringcarcinogenesisinthelargerspecies.Thiswoulddecreasethepossibilitythatmutationsatthislocus
wouldcontributetoprogressiontowardscancer.Thishasbeenobservedinatissue-specificmanner.ThetumorsuppressorTrp53 usuallyrequiresbothallelesofthe
genetobenullinordertoseeamutantphenotype;however,insometissues,Trp53 ishaploinsufficientandlosingonlyonealleleproducesaphenotypeinmice
4.Differenttissuearchitecture
Changesintissuearchitecturecouldinfluencethefrequencyofcancersbyalteringthewaycellsarecompartmentalizedand/orthedynamicsof
thetissue.Mosttissuesarecomprisedofsmallproliferativeunits,forexamplethecryptsoftheintestines.Ithasbeenproposedthatthishierarchicalstructureis
acrucialcancerpreventionmechanism.Sincedifferentiatingcellsareevolutionarydead-ends,theeffectivepopulationsizeofasomatictissueprobably
dependsmainlyonthenumberanddynamicsofstemcells(thoughamutationwhichdisruptsdifferentiationinanon-stemcellmightalsogeneratea
carcinogeniccelllineage).Underamodelof“serialdifferentiation”itispossibletoincreasethenumberofcellsandthe amountofcellturnoverwithout
increasingthenumberorproliferativeactivityofsomaticstemcells,simplybyaddingnon-stemstages.Alteringthenumberofstemcells,thecryptdensityor
thedynamicsofdifferentiationanddivisioncouldenhancethetissue’sabilitytopreventmalignanttransformation.
5.Increasedsensitivitytocontactinhibition
Selfishcellularproliferationcanalsobesuppressedbysignalsfromthemicroenvironment.Forexample,cellcontactinhibitionhasbeennoted
todifferbetweenhuman,mouseandnakedmole-rat(Heterocephalusglaber)cells.Inculture,nakedmole-ratcellsstopdividingatmuchlowerdensitiesthan
humanandmousecellsduetotheearlyactivationofthep16pathwaywhichresultsinhypersensitivitytocontactinhibition. Althoughnakedmole-ratsandmice
aresmallanimals,theformerlivesignificantlylongerthanthelatter(28years[46]versus4years[47]).Inall250necropsiesofnakedmole-ratsthatdiedin
captivity,nonehaddiedofcancer.Hypersensitivecontactinhibitionmighthaveevolvedtosuppresscancersothenakedmole-ratcanlivelonger,thoughithas
onlybeenverifiedinvitro.Signalsforearlycellsenescencecouldbetriggeredinlarge,long-livedorganismstoinhibituncontrolledproliferation.
6. ShorterTelomeres
Telomerelengthappearstobeafundamentalcheckontheproliferativecapacityofcells.Telomeresshortenwitheverycellcycleandwhenthey
becometooshorttoprotectthechromosomes’ends,thecellsensesthoseendsasDNAdoublestrandbreaks,usuallyleadingto apoptosis.Eventhoughstemcells
expresstelomerase,whichhelpstorebuildtelomeres,theygenerallydonotexpressenoughtopreventtelomereshorteningdue toproliferation.Wehypothesizethat
large,long-livedanimalsmighthaveshortertelomeres(orerodethemfaster)thansmalleranimals,limitingthenumberoftimes theircellscandivideand
reducingopportunitiestoaccumulatecarcinogenicmutations.
Peto’sParadoxAppearstobeReal
Cancerincidencerecordsforwildandcaptiveanimalsarenotwelldocumentedformostspecies,makingitdifficultto
directlycompareincidencerecordsofhumansandotheranimals.However,itisstillclearthatcancerincidencedoesnot
scalewithbodysizeacrossspecies.Ifbluewhalesgot1,000timesmorecancerthanhumans,theywouldlikelydiebefore
theywereabletoreproduceandthespecieswouldquicklygoextinct.Themereexistenceofwhalessuggeststhatisit
possibletosuppresscancermany-foldbetterthanhumans.
Theexactfunctionalrelationshipbetweenbodysizeandexpectedcancerriskisunclear;
however itisassumedtobeanincreasingfunction.Incomparinglaboratoryrodentsandhumans,
whichdifferinlifespanbyafactorof40andsizebythreeordersofmagnitude,about30%ofboth
rodentsandhumanshavecancerbytheendoftheirlife.Thegeneralexplanationforthisisthat
large,long-livedanimalsaremoreresistanttocarcinogenesisthansmall,short-lived animals;
however,howtheyaccomplishthisresistancehasyettobeestablished.Understandingthisresistance
canleadtonewmethodsofcancerpreventioninhumans
TheEnd

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Peto’s Paradox