More Related Content Similar to Peto’s Paradox (20) Peto’s Paradox9. CalabreseandShibatadevisedasimplemathematicalequationtoexpresstheprobabilityofahumandevelopingcolorectalcancer.Their
equationproducesresultswhichcloselymatchdatafromtheSEERProgram.Theprobabilityofanindividualdevelopingcancerwasgivenby
P=1-(1-(1-(1-u)d)k)Nm
Whereuisthemutationratepergeneperdivision,disthenumberofstemcelldivisionssincebirth,kisthenumberofrate
limitingmutationsrequired forcancertooccur,Nisthenumberofeffectivestemcellspercryptandmisthenumberofper
colon.
Usingthisrationale,theyincreasedtheparameterm from1.5x103to1.5x1010toseehowthetotalnumberofstem
cellsinthecolonchangesthelifetimeriskofdevelopingcancer.Whenbluewhalethatis1,000timesthesizeofhuman, was
usedasanexample,wherem equaledto1.5x1010cryts.theanalysisrevealedthatover50%ofbluewhaleswoulddevelopcancer
byage50andallwouldhavecancerbyage80.Thechanceofahumangettingcancerbyage90isonlyabout2.5%.Itis
implausiblethat100%ofbluewhalesactuallygetcancerbyage80.Thoughwedon’tknowhowoftentheygetcancer,theyhave
beenreportedtooccasionallyhaveothercancersandliveover100years.Thismodelsuggeststhatthereissomething
fundamentallydifferentintheinitiationandprogressionofcancerinlarge,long-livedanimals,likewhales,comparedto
humans.
14. TumorSuppressionMechanisms thatmightvaryacrossLarge,Long-
livedSpecies
1. LowerSomaticMutationRates
Iflargeanimalshavelowersomaticmutationratespercellgeneration,thenmorecelldivisionswouldneedtooccur,comparedtosmaller
animals,inorderforacelltoacquirethenecessarymutationstobecomemalignant.Mutationrateisafunctionoftheerror rateandtherateatwhich
theseerrorsarerepaired.ThiscouldbeachievedthroughanumberofmechanismsincludingbetterDNAdamagedetectionandrepairmechanisms.However,
experimentaldataseemtosuggestthatmiceandhumanshavecomparablemutationrates,thoughbettermethodstomeasuresomaticmutationratesin
vivoareneededtoexplorethishypothesis.
2. RedundancyofTumorSuppressorGenes
Addedredundancyoftumorsuppressorgenescouldalsosuppresscancerinlargeanimals byrequiringmoremutationstooccur toproducea
malignantphenotype.Humancellsrequiremoremutationsthanmousecellstocreateimmortalizedcultures.BoththeRbandp53 pathwaysmustbeknocked
outtoimmortalizehumanfibroblastswhilemousecellsrequireonlythep53pathwaytobeinactivated.Micegeneticallyengineeredtohaveextracopies
ofTrp53 orCdkn2A haveincreasedtumorresistance.Interestingly,thecurrentbuildoftheelephantgenomehas12orthologsofthehumangene TP53,in
additiontoonecopyofthegenesthatencodep73andp63.Thehumangenomeonlyhasoneofeachofthesegenes(TP53,TP63,TP73)asdiscussedpreviously.
16. 5.Increasedsensitivitytocontactinhibition
Selfishcellularproliferationcanalsobesuppressedbysignalsfromthemicroenvironment.Forexample,cellcontactinhibitionhasbeennoted
todifferbetweenhuman,mouseandnakedmole-rat(Heterocephalusglaber)cells.Inculture,nakedmole-ratcellsstopdividingatmuchlowerdensitiesthan
humanandmousecellsduetotheearlyactivationofthep16pathwaywhichresultsinhypersensitivitytocontactinhibition. Althoughnakedmole-ratsandmice
aresmallanimals,theformerlivesignificantlylongerthanthelatter(28years[46]versus4years[47]).Inall250necropsiesofnakedmole-ratsthatdiedin
captivity,nonehaddiedofcancer.Hypersensitivecontactinhibitionmighthaveevolvedtosuppresscancersothenakedmole-ratcanlivelonger,thoughithas
onlybeenverifiedinvitro.Signalsforearlycellsenescencecouldbetriggeredinlarge,long-livedorganismstoinhibituncontrolledproliferation.
6. ShorterTelomeres
Telomerelengthappearstobeafundamentalcheckontheproliferativecapacityofcells.Telomeresshortenwitheverycellcycleandwhenthey
becometooshorttoprotectthechromosomes’ends,thecellsensesthoseendsasDNAdoublestrandbreaks,usuallyleadingto apoptosis.Eventhoughstemcells
expresstelomerase,whichhelpstorebuildtelomeres,theygenerallydonotexpressenoughtopreventtelomereshorteningdue toproliferation.Wehypothesizethat
large,long-livedanimalsmighthaveshortertelomeres(orerodethemfaster)thansmalleranimals,limitingthenumberoftimes theircellscandivideand
reducingopportunitiestoaccumulatecarcinogenicmutations.