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Census 2016 and IRCC Data
What it Says About Naturalization
Andrew Griffith
Metropolis Citizenship Workshop 22 March 2018
Agenda
• Detailed review of Census 2016 citizenship data
• Gender, age, immigration category and class,
income, LICO, Labour force
• 2017 IRCC operational data
• Impact, Conclusions & Recommendations
2
Demographics
3
Citizenship Take-up
Foreign-born by Place of Birth, Census 2016
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
Southeast Asia
W Central Asia & ME
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Caribbean
South America
USA
Northern Africa
Eastern Africa
Central America
Western Africa
Oceania
Central Africa
Southern Africa
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
23%
46%
34%
45%
29%
27%
32%
41%
25%
23%
29%
17%
22%
13%
33%
34%
34%
36%
65%
48%
50%
40%
53%
63%
39%
35%
51%
67%
58%
52%
59%
70%
46%
63%
58%
59%
Canadian Only Dual Nationals Non-Citizens
Number
1,232,465
1,154,335
926,190
635,640
629,630
599,800
540,855
459,150
403,555
346,600
338,630
246,945
206,330
192,370
126,170
70,570
59,005
51,175
4
Immigration Sources — Category
1980-2016 — Census 2016
5
1980-90 1991-2000 2001-5 2006-10 2011-16
E F R E F R E F R E F R E F R
Southern Asia 6.6% 17.0% 4.8% 12.7% 25.1% 19.7% 19.5% 28.7% 18.9% 16.0% 24.8% 14.1% 18.8% 21.6% 9.9%
Eastern Asia 20.7% 12.3% 1.8% 30.6% 14.1% 2.3% 25.2% 16.1% 6.5% 17.8% 15.9% 5.7% 14.1% 17.4% 3.6%
Southeast Asia 12.3% 13.0% 33.6% 11.2% 14.4% 5.0% 10.4% 10.6% 1.5% 18.3% 11.2% 4.5% 23.4% 11.3% 1.7%
W Central Asia ME 9.4% 3.5% 8.7% 9.2% 4.8% 19.1% 9.2% 5.8% 22.3% 9.3% 6.5% 21.6% 9.4% 6.2% 42.1%
Eastern Europe 3.6% 5.6% 27.4% 10.4% 7.0% 10.4% 10.7% 6.3% 4.0% 6.8% 5.2% 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 2.4%
Caribbean 4.9% 13.8% 0.4% 2.3% 10.1% 1.3% 1.9% 6.2% 2.1% 2.0% 6.6% 5.1% 2.3% 6.8% 5.3%
South America 5.0% 7.9% 2.1% 2.3% 5.8% 3.1% 3.3% 4.7% 12.0% 4.1% 4.4% 12.7% 3.2% 4.1% 3.5%
Northern Africa 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3.4% 1.5% 2.4% 5.5% 2.6% 2.8% 7.2% 3.7% 1.8% 5.7% 4.4% 2.2%
Southern Europe 7.5% 5.9% 0.7% 3.9% 2.3% 15.6% 1.7% 2.2% 3.7% 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.0%
Northern Europe 11.4% 4.2% 0.1% 3.4% 2.1% 0.2% 2.5% 2.7% 0.1% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% 3.1% 2.7% 0.1%
Eastern Africa 2.9% 1.7% 5.1% 1.1% 1.8% 8.5% 1.2% 1.5% 12.4% 1.2% 2.1% 14.9% 1.2% 2.6% 14.5%
Western Europe 5.5% 2.7% 0.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 4.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.2%
Central America 2.3% 2.7% 12.6% 1.2% 3.1% 6.9% 1.0% 2.7% 3.3% 1.5% 3.3% 4.8% 1.5% 3.3% 3.3%
North America 2.6% 5.4% 0.5% 1.6% 3.1% 0.4% 1.6% 4.8% 1.0% 2.1% 5.4% 2.6% 1.8% 5.3% 1.2%
Western Africa 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 4.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0%
Highlighting: Blue — 5-10 percent, Yellow — 10-20 percent, Orange — Greater than 20 percent
Naturalization — Period
Before 1981 1981 to 2000 2001 to 2005 2006 to 2010 2011-2016
Eastern Asia 97.0% 93.8% 78.4% 53.5% 22.3%
Southern Asia 97.2% 92.8% 87.8% 69.2% 25.6%
Southeast Asia 97.6% 95.2% 89.8% 69.8% 28.4%
W Central Asia & Mid-East 96.7% 95.3% 90.8% 76.6% 32.8%
Southern Europe 92.9% 88.8% 89.8% 70.0% 27.9%
Northern Europe 89.6% 80.5% 70.3% 51.4% 21.5%
Eastern Europe 97.9% 96.1% 93.0% 78.6% 39.0%
Western Europe 90.6% 73.7% 67.1% 51.0% 21.3%
Caribbean and Bermuda 96.4% 92.3% 85.9% 67.0% 32.5%
South America 95.4% 92.8% 90.3% 77.5% 42.4%
USA 64.5% 65.1% 66.9% 59.4% 33.6%
Northern Africa 97.6% 95.7% 93.8% 83.2% 48.1%
Eastern Africa 98.4% 96.1% 89.8% 75.9% 39.9%
Central America 87.3% 93.2% 85.9% 67.1% 45.2%
Western Africa 95.2% 96.6% 93.4% 83.4% 37.2%
Oceania 89.1% 86.7% 76.8% 55.3% 21.5%
Central Africa 91.8% 94.5% 90.6% 80.6% 30.8%
Southern Africa 96.7% 95.1% 94.2% 78.4% 29.5%
Highlighting 70 percent less (Before 1981 to 2010), 30 percent or less (2011-16)
6
Naturalization — Gender
Census 2016 Percent Female, CoB — Overall 52.4 Percent
Canadian Only Dual citizens Not Canadian All Foreign-Born
Eastern Asia 54.9% 54.4% 55.5% 55.0%
Southern Asia 49.7% 48.0% 50.8% 49.9%
Southeast Asia 56.7% 60.0% 56.6% 56.8%
Southern Europe 50.5% 48.9% 50.5% 50.3%
Northern Europe 52.6% 50.3% 48.1% 51.3%
Eastern Europe 54.1% 52.6% 55.9% 53.9%
W Central Asia & Mid-East 48.6% 47.8% 49.6% 48.7%
Caribbean & Bermuda 57.8% 55.0% 50.9% 56.1%
Western Europe 50.5% 48.2% 49.7% 50.0%
South America 54.9% 53.2% 53.5% 54.2%
Northern Africa 46.9% 45.9% 49.5% 47.3%
Eastern Africa 52.3% 49.8% 51.6% 51.9%
USA 53.8% 54.4% 56.8% 55.3%
Central America 52.7% 52.6% 50.4% 52.1%
Western Africa 48.7% 46.6% 48.5% 48.2%
Oceania 53.7% 50.6% 44.1% 50.5%
Southern Africa 50.4% 51.1% 50.8% 50.6%
Central Africa 50.9% 48.8% 51.0% 50.8%
Highlighting +/- 5 percent 7
Naturalization — Age
Foreign-born by CoB, Age, Census 2016
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
Southeast Asia
W Central Asia & ME
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Caribbean & Bermuda
South America
USA
Northern Africa
Eastern Africa
Central America
Western Africa
Oceania
Central Africa
Southern Africa
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
22.2%
3.3%
24.5%
5%
9.7%
15%
13.3%
21.5%
17.7%
26.7%
52%
26%
51.1%
51.9%
12.7%
15.4%
15.7%
20%
17.6%
9.4%
18.3%
13.4%
15.3%
17.4%
12.9%
14.9%
19.2%
19%
15.2%
18.8%
18.6%
21.3%
14.6%
20.1%
15.1%
18.8%
48%
67%
46%
63%
62%
56%
58%
32%
52%
47%
26%
48%
26%
24%
56%
54%
57%
49%
0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years 65 years plus
8
Naturalization — Education
9
25%
50%
75%
100%
1981-95 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010
74%
92%
95%
67%
88%
93%
63%
85%
91%
63%
87%
91%
59%
83%
90%
No certificate Secondary Apprenticeship, trades
College, CEGEP or other Bachelor's and above
Naturalization — Education
Census 2016 CoB — Change 2006-10 from 1996-2005
No Certificate Secondary Apprenticeship College, CEGEP Bachelors +
Eastern Asia -33.3% -32.9% -37.1% -33.0% -32.0%
Southern Asia -25.6% -26.1% -26.3% -21.4% -18.1%
Southeast Asia -22.9% -25.0% -28.1% -23.5% -18.1%
W Central Asia & ME -21.5% -17.6% -20.6% -13.0% -13.0%
Southern Europe -29.7% -23.7% -23.2% -17.2% -14.8%
Northern Europe -26.2% -21.5% -22.7% -25.7% -22.4%
Eastern Europe -22.6% -23.0% -24.7% -16.2% -11.0%
Western Europe -21.3% -23.2% -24.2% -19.2% -16.8%
Caribbean & Bermuda -25.9% -23.8% -22.9% -20.2% -15.3%
South America -17.6% -16.3% -12.7% -13.9% -10.4%
USA -15.9% -21.0% -11.8% -15.7% -17.7%
Northern Africa -15.9% -13.1% -9.4% -9.8% -11.3%
Eastern Africa -21.4% -14.7% -14.8% -12.2% -12.5%
Central America -18.9% -27.7% -30.0% -25.7% -19.0%
Western Africa -13.8% -12.8% -16.2% -9.3% -10.5%
Oceania -19.5% -32.0% -25.6% -24.2% -22.9%
Central Africa -12.8% -15.0% -11.5% -12.6% -10.3%
Southern Africa -12.7% -16.1% -36.4% -17.5% -17.5%
Highlighting: Red 25 percent less or greater 10
Naturalization — Province
All Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-16
ON 78.8% 92.2% 92.6% 92.7% 78.5% 32.0%
QC 73.1% 93.6% 93.7% 92.1% 80.6% 36.2%
BC 75.1% 92.0% 92.1% 91.2% 71.1% 26.0%
AB 66.3% 90.9% 91.8% 90.7% 76.6% 28.6%
MB 59.9% 89.7% 89.5% 88.3% 66.9% 30.4%
SK 46.4% 88.3% 87.1% 89.6% 65.5% 20.2%
Atlantic 58.7% 80.0% 77.4% 83.1% 69.3% 20.3%
Highlighting: Orange — 70 percent less (All immigrants, 2001-2010)
Red — 90 percent or less (1981-2000)
Yellow — 30 percent or less (2011-16)
11
Category and Period
12
Naturalization
Category & Period of Immigration
Economic Family Refugees All Categories
All 67.4% 68.0% 76.9% 69.0%
Before 1981 91.3% 90.9% 97.2% 92.8%
1981-85 91.9% 89.9% 96.8% 92.1%
1986-1990 92.8% 89.8% 95.8% 92.5%
1991-1995 93.5% 90.3% 95.7% 92.6%
1996-2000 93.5% 86.6% 93.6% 91.4%
2001-05 89.0% 79.1% 88.3% 85.9%
2006-10 71.4% 61.5% 71.0% 68.5%
2011-16 (4 years) 47.4% 39.7% 53.1% 46.2%
Highlighting: Red — 80 percent less (Before 1981 to 2010), Orange 50 percent or less (2011-16)
13
Naturalization
Category, CoB — Change 2006-10 from 1996-2005
Economic Family Refugees All
Eastern Asia -31.1% -29.6% -24.4% -31.3%
Oceania -25.0% -24.4% -30.8% -23.9%
Southern Europe -23.3% -13.7% -19.7% -22.3%
Northern Europe -24.5% -17.7% -20.5% -21.7%
Southeast Asia -22.1% -21.0% -29.3% -21.4%
Central America -20.3% -21.2% -21.9% -20.7%
Caribbean & Bermuda -15.6% -24.0% -17.0% -20.6%
Southern Asia -18.4% -23.1% -20.8% -20.3%
Western Europe -19.2% -12.6% -11.2% -18.3%
W Central Asia & ME -15.6% -14.0% -18.9% -15.9%
Eastern Africa -13.4% -16.7% -16.8% -15.8%
Southern Africa -14.5% -14.2% -18.0% -15.8%
Eastern Europe -13.6% -18.6% -20.8% -15.7%
South America -11.7% -18.3% -13.8% -13.2%
Central Africa -10.0% -11.8% -15.6% -11.9%
Northern Africa -11.2% -11.9% -14.5% -11.2%
Western Africa -10.6% -11.5% -15.8% -11.0%
USA -10.8% -10.8% -15.7% -9.1%
Highlighting: Red — Neg 25 percent difference or more, Orange — Neg 20-25 percent 14
Naturalization — Economic
Class and Period
Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006 - 10
Skilled workers 92% 92% 93% 92% 78%
Cdn experience - P 55%
Cdn experience - S 49%
Caregivers - P 92% 92% 88% 67%
Caregivers - S 95% 92% 88% 65%
Business programs 86% 89% 93% 85% 59%
Entrepreneurs - P 89% 92% 92% 85% 57%
Entrepreneurs - S 96% 94% 95% 91% 72%
Investors - P 90% 67% 34%
Investors - S 95% 88% 63%
Self-employed - P 83% 85% 86% 78% 56%
Self-employed - S 84% 85% 88% 80% 62%
Provincial/territorial 76% 57%
Highlighting: Before 1981 to 2005 less than 90 percent, 2006-10 less than 60 percent
15
Naturalization — Economic
Difference Primary and Secondary Applicants
Selected economic classes
Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006-10
Skilled workers 2.0% 1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -1%
Canadian experience 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6%
Caregivers 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2%
Entrepreneurs -7.0% -2.0% -3.0% -6.0% -15%
Investors 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% -21.0% -29%
Self-employed -1.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -6%
Provincial & territorial 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2%
Highlighting: Red -5 percent or less, Green 5 percent or more, Principal minus Secondary
16
Naturalization — Family, Refugees
Class and Period
Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006-10
Spouses/partners 88% 87% 88% 82% 62%
Parents/grandparents 95% 94% 92% 81% 54%
Children 91% 92% 92% 88% 72%
Intercountry adoptions 100% 94% 96% 96% 94%
Protected persons 96% 90% 73%
Government-assisted 97% 97% 96% 92% 66%
Privately-sponsored 98% 97% 96% 92% 73%
Highlighting: Before 1981 to 2005 less than 90 percent, 2006-10 less than 70 percent
17
Income & Labour
Force
18
Naturalization — Income
Category, Period, Gender, Median Employment Income
Census 2016
1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 Years)
M F M F M F M F
Economic $47,370 $41,283 $60,219 $46,631 $52,377 $37,297 $47,689 $33,540
Family $42,462 $32,522 $36,340 $25,387 $32,725 $20,301 $31,335 $18,616
Refugees $39,661 $32,237 $28,538 $22,445 $24,857 $17,855 $22,935 $15,696
Non-citizen income as percentage of citizens
Economic 86.7% 89.2% 71.8% 74.9% 79.4% 81.6% 86.4% 78.8%
Family 93.2% 87.8% 91.7% 85.7% 88.7% 80.3% 87.3% 84.6%
Refugees 80.9% 79.3% 77.6% 73.5% 87.5% 84.7% 91.1% 83.0%
Highlighting: Less than 80 percent
19
Naturalization — Income
Category and Period — Census 2016
1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years)
Primary Applicants Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non
Economic $43,912 90.0% $54,873 73.1% $45,029 81.7% $40,674 85.5%
Skilled workers $47,209 91.5% $58,417 75.9% $47,650 80.7% $40,297 81.4%
Canadian experience $53,095 111.5% $53,138 97.9%
Caregivers $39,570 87.0% $39,464 80.6% $32,714 88.7% $31,985 83.0%
Entrepreneur etc $23,164 82.7% $20,666 94.9% $19,404 99.8% $14,802 132.3%
Provincial Nominee $52,762 91.5% $49,366 84.7% $44,839 87.4%
Family $36,575 90.8% $29,666 89.0% $25,184 87.2% $23,858 86.4%
Refugees $36,266 80.6% $25,339 76.3% $21,299 87.2% $19,948 85.7%
Government-assisted $37,318 84.1% $26,119 75.3% $17,261 99.5% $14,092 91.8%
Privately sponsored $37,714 83.7% $27,642 75.3% $21,582 90.8% $19,719 115.5%
Protected Person $30,946 73.2% $24,753 75.5% $21,836 82.2% $21,393 76.2%
Highlighting: Non-citizen percentage citizen income 85 percent or less
20
Naturalization — Income
LICO Before Tax Citizen and Non-Citizen Comparison
21
1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years)
Naturalization Rate LICO Above LICO Above LICO Above LICO Above
Overall 91.3% 92.8% 84.7% 89.1% 61.6% 68.9% 39.5% 44.5%
Economic PA 91% 92.9% 84.3% 90.7% 59.9% 72.3% 37.8% 49%
Economic SD 92.3% 93.8% 88% 92.4% 64.6% 72.4% 38.8% 44.9%
Family 89.5% 90.3% 81.2% 82.5% 57.2% 60.2% 35% 35.4%
Refugees 93.3% 96.2% 86% 92.1% 65% 73.6% 47.3% 54.9%
GARs 93.5% 96.7% 87.5% 93.8% 63.3% 70.2% 44.8% 49.3%
PSRs 93.1% 96.1% 87.2% 94% 69% 75.6% 50.3% 50%
LICO Prevalence Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non
Overall 15.6% 18.5% 16.6% 22.6% 18.6% 23.9% 20.8% 24.4%
Economic PA 15.5% 19.2% 12.2% 20.2% 12.5% 20% 15% 21.9%
Economic SD 12.6% 15.4% 14.4% 21.7% 18.2% 24.3% 20.5% 24.8%
Family 15.5% 16.7% 18.4% 19.8% 19.3% 21.3% 19.7% 19.9%
Refugees 19.1% 30.4% 24.3% 37.9% 29.8% 38.9% 35.3% 42.5%
GARs 17.5% 30.1% 21.8% 37.7% 35.6% 43.1% 47.9% 52.6%
PSRs 17.1% 27.4% 19.7% 35.7% 27.6% 34.7% 35.6% 35.3%
Highlighting: Red — Gap of 10 percent or more, Orange — Gap 5-10 percent
Naturalization — Income
In LICO Before Tax Gender
22
1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years)
Citizens M F M F M F M F
Overall 91.3% 91.3% 84.4% 85.1% 60.7% 62.4% 39.2% 39.8%
Economic PA 91% 91.1% 83.7% 85.6% 58.5% 62.1% 37% 39%
Economic SD 93% 91.9% 88% 88% 64.4% 64.7% 38.8% 38.8%
Family 88.8% 89.9% 79.7% 82% 55% 58.6% 34.1% 35.7%
Refugees 93.3% 93.3% 86% 86% 65.3% 64.8% 47.8% 46.8%
GARs 93.7% 93.2% 86.5% 88.3% 63.9% 62.8% 47.4% 42.8%
PSRs 92.9% 93.4% 88.7% 86% 69.2% 68.4% 51.6% 47.1%
Highlighting: Red — Less than 90 percent 1986-95, Orange — Less than 80 percent 1996-2005
Yellow — Less than 60 percent 2006-10, Green — Greater than 40 percent 2011
Naturalization — Labour Force
Difference Out/In, Unemployed/Employed — Census 2016
23
1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years)
Citizens Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un
Overall -2.0% -1.0% -3.0% -1.0% -6% -1% -6% -1%
Economic PA -1% 0% -6% -2% -12% -2% -10% -1%
Economic SD -1% 0% -2% 0% -1% 1% -2% 1%
Family -2% -3% -3% -2% -6% -2% -5% 0%
Refugee -2% -1% -4% -3% -6% -3% -2% -6%
GARs -2% -1% -2% -5% -8% -1% 0% -6%
PSRs -2% -1% -5% -4% -3% -5% -2% 2%
Protected person -1% -2% -4% -2% -5% -3% -1% -9%
Highlighting: Neg 5 percent or less
Impact, Conclusions &
Recommendations
24
Citizenship Take-Up
Period of Immigration — NHS 2011, Census 2016
25%
50%
75%
100%
Overall Before 1981 1981 - 2000* Last full period Partial period
30.5%
68.5%
90.4%91.9%
82.7%
36.7%
77.2%
91.4%92.7%
85.6%
NHS Census
25Last full period: NHS 2001-5, Census 2006-10; Partial period: NHS 2006-11, Census 2011-16
Citizenship Applications & Citizens
2000-16 IRCC Operational Data
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Applications Applications 3-Year Moving Average New Citizens
PR Trendline
PR Trendline
26
2017 Changes Limited Impact
• Main impact:
• Shorter residency (3 of 4 years compared to 4 of 6)
• Fewer undergo language and knowledge assessment
(18-54 rather than 14-64) — 5.9 percent (2009-13)
• 17 months — 28 May 2015 to 11 October 2017
• One-time impact of residency change
• Fees ongoing
27
Concluding observations
• Naturalization positive correlations:
• Education, income, labour market participation
• Economic and refugee categories
• Whether or not the country of birth permits,
officially or unofficially, dual citizenship
• 2017 changes will have limited impact on
naturalization rate
• Immigrant-to-citizen model at risk
28
Performance Standards
Levels Approach
• Current standard meaningless: Percent who are citizens of all immigrants from all periods
• Replace by percent of the annual immigrant average of the previous Census period
• Similar to annual immigration levels but set for five year period
• Recommended 70-80 percent range — based on previous periods
• 2016-20 level would be 170,000 to 193,000, higher than than the 148,000 in 2016
and estimated 110,000 in 2017
• A processing standard of 80% of applications receiving grants within 12 months of date
submitted
29
Immigrants Percentage Scenarios Citizens
Period Immigrants Annual
Average
80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Citizens Annual
Average
2001-5 928,935 185,787 148,630 139,340 130,051 120,762 111,472 798,200 159,640
2006-10 1,056,095 211,219 168,975 158,414 147,853 137,292 126,731 723,020 144,604
2011-15 1,212,080 242,416 193,933 181,812 169,691 157,570 145,450
Other Recommendations
• More timely and comprehensive citizenship data
sets
• Monthly application stats alongside current new citizen
stats
• Annual immigration category, gender, time between
landing and citizenship
• Reduce adult fees to $300 (processing and right-
of-citizenship)
30
Policy Questions
Citizenship
• Balance between presence and mobility? Between
meaningfulness and instrumental citizenship?
• Does naturalization matter?
• Should fees be based on cost recovery or mix of
private and public interest considerations?
• What percent of immigrants expected to naturalize
within what period of time?
• What voting rights should non-residents have?
31
Andrew Griffith
Email: agriffith232@gmail.com
Twitter: @andrew_griffith
LinkedIn: andrewlgriffith
Facebook: Andrew Griffith C&M
Blog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com
Books: lulu.com

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Census 2016 and IRCC Data What it Says About Naturalization in Canada

  • 1. Census 2016 and IRCC Data What it Says About Naturalization Andrew Griffith Metropolis Citizenship Workshop 22 March 2018
  • 2. Agenda • Detailed review of Census 2016 citizenship data • Gender, age, immigration category and class, income, LICO, Labour force • 2017 IRCC operational data • Impact, Conclusions & Recommendations 2
  • 4. Citizenship Take-up Foreign-born by Place of Birth, Census 2016 Eastern Asia Southern Asia Southeast Asia W Central Asia & ME Southern Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe Western Europe Caribbean South America USA Northern Africa Eastern Africa Central America Western Africa Oceania Central Africa Southern Africa 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 23% 46% 34% 45% 29% 27% 32% 41% 25% 23% 29% 17% 22% 13% 33% 34% 34% 36% 65% 48% 50% 40% 53% 63% 39% 35% 51% 67% 58% 52% 59% 70% 46% 63% 58% 59% Canadian Only Dual Nationals Non-Citizens Number 1,232,465 1,154,335 926,190 635,640 629,630 599,800 540,855 459,150 403,555 346,600 338,630 246,945 206,330 192,370 126,170 70,570 59,005 51,175 4
  • 5. Immigration Sources — Category 1980-2016 — Census 2016 5 1980-90 1991-2000 2001-5 2006-10 2011-16 E F R E F R E F R E F R E F R Southern Asia 6.6% 17.0% 4.8% 12.7% 25.1% 19.7% 19.5% 28.7% 18.9% 16.0% 24.8% 14.1% 18.8% 21.6% 9.9% Eastern Asia 20.7% 12.3% 1.8% 30.6% 14.1% 2.3% 25.2% 16.1% 6.5% 17.8% 15.9% 5.7% 14.1% 17.4% 3.6% Southeast Asia 12.3% 13.0% 33.6% 11.2% 14.4% 5.0% 10.4% 10.6% 1.5% 18.3% 11.2% 4.5% 23.4% 11.3% 1.7% W Central Asia ME 9.4% 3.5% 8.7% 9.2% 4.8% 19.1% 9.2% 5.8% 22.3% 9.3% 6.5% 21.6% 9.4% 6.2% 42.1% Eastern Europe 3.6% 5.6% 27.4% 10.4% 7.0% 10.4% 10.7% 6.3% 4.0% 6.8% 5.2% 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 2.4% Caribbean 4.9% 13.8% 0.4% 2.3% 10.1% 1.3% 1.9% 6.2% 2.1% 2.0% 6.6% 5.1% 2.3% 6.8% 5.3% South America 5.0% 7.9% 2.1% 2.3% 5.8% 3.1% 3.3% 4.7% 12.0% 4.1% 4.4% 12.7% 3.2% 4.1% 3.5% Northern Africa 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3.4% 1.5% 2.4% 5.5% 2.6% 2.8% 7.2% 3.7% 1.8% 5.7% 4.4% 2.2% Southern Europe 7.5% 5.9% 0.7% 3.9% 2.3% 15.6% 1.7% 2.2% 3.7% 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.0% Northern Europe 11.4% 4.2% 0.1% 3.4% 2.1% 0.2% 2.5% 2.7% 0.1% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% 3.1% 2.7% 0.1% Eastern Africa 2.9% 1.7% 5.1% 1.1% 1.8% 8.5% 1.2% 1.5% 12.4% 1.2% 2.1% 14.9% 1.2% 2.6% 14.5% Western Europe 5.5% 2.7% 0.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 4.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.2% Central America 2.3% 2.7% 12.6% 1.2% 3.1% 6.9% 1.0% 2.7% 3.3% 1.5% 3.3% 4.8% 1.5% 3.3% 3.3% North America 2.6% 5.4% 0.5% 1.6% 3.1% 0.4% 1.6% 4.8% 1.0% 2.1% 5.4% 2.6% 1.8% 5.3% 1.2% Western Africa 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 4.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% Highlighting: Blue — 5-10 percent, Yellow — 10-20 percent, Orange — Greater than 20 percent
  • 6. Naturalization — Period Before 1981 1981 to 2000 2001 to 2005 2006 to 2010 2011-2016 Eastern Asia 97.0% 93.8% 78.4% 53.5% 22.3% Southern Asia 97.2% 92.8% 87.8% 69.2% 25.6% Southeast Asia 97.6% 95.2% 89.8% 69.8% 28.4% W Central Asia & Mid-East 96.7% 95.3% 90.8% 76.6% 32.8% Southern Europe 92.9% 88.8% 89.8% 70.0% 27.9% Northern Europe 89.6% 80.5% 70.3% 51.4% 21.5% Eastern Europe 97.9% 96.1% 93.0% 78.6% 39.0% Western Europe 90.6% 73.7% 67.1% 51.0% 21.3% Caribbean and Bermuda 96.4% 92.3% 85.9% 67.0% 32.5% South America 95.4% 92.8% 90.3% 77.5% 42.4% USA 64.5% 65.1% 66.9% 59.4% 33.6% Northern Africa 97.6% 95.7% 93.8% 83.2% 48.1% Eastern Africa 98.4% 96.1% 89.8% 75.9% 39.9% Central America 87.3% 93.2% 85.9% 67.1% 45.2% Western Africa 95.2% 96.6% 93.4% 83.4% 37.2% Oceania 89.1% 86.7% 76.8% 55.3% 21.5% Central Africa 91.8% 94.5% 90.6% 80.6% 30.8% Southern Africa 96.7% 95.1% 94.2% 78.4% 29.5% Highlighting 70 percent less (Before 1981 to 2010), 30 percent or less (2011-16) 6
  • 7. Naturalization — Gender Census 2016 Percent Female, CoB — Overall 52.4 Percent Canadian Only Dual citizens Not Canadian All Foreign-Born Eastern Asia 54.9% 54.4% 55.5% 55.0% Southern Asia 49.7% 48.0% 50.8% 49.9% Southeast Asia 56.7% 60.0% 56.6% 56.8% Southern Europe 50.5% 48.9% 50.5% 50.3% Northern Europe 52.6% 50.3% 48.1% 51.3% Eastern Europe 54.1% 52.6% 55.9% 53.9% W Central Asia & Mid-East 48.6% 47.8% 49.6% 48.7% Caribbean & Bermuda 57.8% 55.0% 50.9% 56.1% Western Europe 50.5% 48.2% 49.7% 50.0% South America 54.9% 53.2% 53.5% 54.2% Northern Africa 46.9% 45.9% 49.5% 47.3% Eastern Africa 52.3% 49.8% 51.6% 51.9% USA 53.8% 54.4% 56.8% 55.3% Central America 52.7% 52.6% 50.4% 52.1% Western Africa 48.7% 46.6% 48.5% 48.2% Oceania 53.7% 50.6% 44.1% 50.5% Southern Africa 50.4% 51.1% 50.8% 50.6% Central Africa 50.9% 48.8% 51.0% 50.8% Highlighting +/- 5 percent 7
  • 8. Naturalization — Age Foreign-born by CoB, Age, Census 2016 Eastern Asia Southern Asia Southeast Asia W Central Asia & ME Southern Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe Western Europe Caribbean & Bermuda South America USA Northern Africa Eastern Africa Central America Western Africa Oceania Central Africa Southern Africa 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 22.2% 3.3% 24.5% 5% 9.7% 15% 13.3% 21.5% 17.7% 26.7% 52% 26% 51.1% 51.9% 12.7% 15.4% 15.7% 20% 17.6% 9.4% 18.3% 13.4% 15.3% 17.4% 12.9% 14.9% 19.2% 19% 15.2% 18.8% 18.6% 21.3% 14.6% 20.1% 15.1% 18.8% 48% 67% 46% 63% 62% 56% 58% 32% 52% 47% 26% 48% 26% 24% 56% 54% 57% 49% 0-14 years 15-24 years 25-54 years 55-64 years 65 years plus 8
  • 9. Naturalization — Education 9 25% 50% 75% 100% 1981-95 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 74% 92% 95% 67% 88% 93% 63% 85% 91% 63% 87% 91% 59% 83% 90% No certificate Secondary Apprenticeship, trades College, CEGEP or other Bachelor's and above
  • 10. Naturalization — Education Census 2016 CoB — Change 2006-10 from 1996-2005 No Certificate Secondary Apprenticeship College, CEGEP Bachelors + Eastern Asia -33.3% -32.9% -37.1% -33.0% -32.0% Southern Asia -25.6% -26.1% -26.3% -21.4% -18.1% Southeast Asia -22.9% -25.0% -28.1% -23.5% -18.1% W Central Asia & ME -21.5% -17.6% -20.6% -13.0% -13.0% Southern Europe -29.7% -23.7% -23.2% -17.2% -14.8% Northern Europe -26.2% -21.5% -22.7% -25.7% -22.4% Eastern Europe -22.6% -23.0% -24.7% -16.2% -11.0% Western Europe -21.3% -23.2% -24.2% -19.2% -16.8% Caribbean & Bermuda -25.9% -23.8% -22.9% -20.2% -15.3% South America -17.6% -16.3% -12.7% -13.9% -10.4% USA -15.9% -21.0% -11.8% -15.7% -17.7% Northern Africa -15.9% -13.1% -9.4% -9.8% -11.3% Eastern Africa -21.4% -14.7% -14.8% -12.2% -12.5% Central America -18.9% -27.7% -30.0% -25.7% -19.0% Western Africa -13.8% -12.8% -16.2% -9.3% -10.5% Oceania -19.5% -32.0% -25.6% -24.2% -22.9% Central Africa -12.8% -15.0% -11.5% -12.6% -10.3% Southern Africa -12.7% -16.1% -36.4% -17.5% -17.5% Highlighting: Red 25 percent less or greater 10
  • 11. Naturalization — Province All Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-16 ON 78.8% 92.2% 92.6% 92.7% 78.5% 32.0% QC 73.1% 93.6% 93.7% 92.1% 80.6% 36.2% BC 75.1% 92.0% 92.1% 91.2% 71.1% 26.0% AB 66.3% 90.9% 91.8% 90.7% 76.6% 28.6% MB 59.9% 89.7% 89.5% 88.3% 66.9% 30.4% SK 46.4% 88.3% 87.1% 89.6% 65.5% 20.2% Atlantic 58.7% 80.0% 77.4% 83.1% 69.3% 20.3% Highlighting: Orange — 70 percent less (All immigrants, 2001-2010) Red — 90 percent or less (1981-2000) Yellow — 30 percent or less (2011-16) 11
  • 13. Naturalization Category & Period of Immigration Economic Family Refugees All Categories All 67.4% 68.0% 76.9% 69.0% Before 1981 91.3% 90.9% 97.2% 92.8% 1981-85 91.9% 89.9% 96.8% 92.1% 1986-1990 92.8% 89.8% 95.8% 92.5% 1991-1995 93.5% 90.3% 95.7% 92.6% 1996-2000 93.5% 86.6% 93.6% 91.4% 2001-05 89.0% 79.1% 88.3% 85.9% 2006-10 71.4% 61.5% 71.0% 68.5% 2011-16 (4 years) 47.4% 39.7% 53.1% 46.2% Highlighting: Red — 80 percent less (Before 1981 to 2010), Orange 50 percent or less (2011-16) 13
  • 14. Naturalization Category, CoB — Change 2006-10 from 1996-2005 Economic Family Refugees All Eastern Asia -31.1% -29.6% -24.4% -31.3% Oceania -25.0% -24.4% -30.8% -23.9% Southern Europe -23.3% -13.7% -19.7% -22.3% Northern Europe -24.5% -17.7% -20.5% -21.7% Southeast Asia -22.1% -21.0% -29.3% -21.4% Central America -20.3% -21.2% -21.9% -20.7% Caribbean & Bermuda -15.6% -24.0% -17.0% -20.6% Southern Asia -18.4% -23.1% -20.8% -20.3% Western Europe -19.2% -12.6% -11.2% -18.3% W Central Asia & ME -15.6% -14.0% -18.9% -15.9% Eastern Africa -13.4% -16.7% -16.8% -15.8% Southern Africa -14.5% -14.2% -18.0% -15.8% Eastern Europe -13.6% -18.6% -20.8% -15.7% South America -11.7% -18.3% -13.8% -13.2% Central Africa -10.0% -11.8% -15.6% -11.9% Northern Africa -11.2% -11.9% -14.5% -11.2% Western Africa -10.6% -11.5% -15.8% -11.0% USA -10.8% -10.8% -15.7% -9.1% Highlighting: Red — Neg 25 percent difference or more, Orange — Neg 20-25 percent 14
  • 15. Naturalization — Economic Class and Period Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006 - 10 Skilled workers 92% 92% 93% 92% 78% Cdn experience - P 55% Cdn experience - S 49% Caregivers - P 92% 92% 88% 67% Caregivers - S 95% 92% 88% 65% Business programs 86% 89% 93% 85% 59% Entrepreneurs - P 89% 92% 92% 85% 57% Entrepreneurs - S 96% 94% 95% 91% 72% Investors - P 90% 67% 34% Investors - S 95% 88% 63% Self-employed - P 83% 85% 86% 78% 56% Self-employed - S 84% 85% 88% 80% 62% Provincial/territorial 76% 57% Highlighting: Before 1981 to 2005 less than 90 percent, 2006-10 less than 60 percent 15
  • 16. Naturalization — Economic Difference Primary and Secondary Applicants Selected economic classes Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006-10 Skilled workers 2.0% 1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -1% Canadian experience 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6% Caregivers 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% Entrepreneurs -7.0% -2.0% -3.0% -6.0% -15% Investors 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% -21.0% -29% Self-employed -1.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -6% Provincial & territorial 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2% Highlighting: Red -5 percent or less, Green 5 percent or more, Principal minus Secondary 16
  • 17. Naturalization — Family, Refugees Class and Period Before 1981 1981-85 1986-95 1996-2005 2006-10 Spouses/partners 88% 87% 88% 82% 62% Parents/grandparents 95% 94% 92% 81% 54% Children 91% 92% 92% 88% 72% Intercountry adoptions 100% 94% 96% 96% 94% Protected persons 96% 90% 73% Government-assisted 97% 97% 96% 92% 66% Privately-sponsored 98% 97% 96% 92% 73% Highlighting: Before 1981 to 2005 less than 90 percent, 2006-10 less than 70 percent 17
  • 19. Naturalization — Income Category, Period, Gender, Median Employment Income Census 2016 1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 Years) M F M F M F M F Economic $47,370 $41,283 $60,219 $46,631 $52,377 $37,297 $47,689 $33,540 Family $42,462 $32,522 $36,340 $25,387 $32,725 $20,301 $31,335 $18,616 Refugees $39,661 $32,237 $28,538 $22,445 $24,857 $17,855 $22,935 $15,696 Non-citizen income as percentage of citizens Economic 86.7% 89.2% 71.8% 74.9% 79.4% 81.6% 86.4% 78.8% Family 93.2% 87.8% 91.7% 85.7% 88.7% 80.3% 87.3% 84.6% Refugees 80.9% 79.3% 77.6% 73.5% 87.5% 84.7% 91.1% 83.0% Highlighting: Less than 80 percent 19
  • 20. Naturalization — Income Category and Period — Census 2016 1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years) Primary Applicants Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Economic $43,912 90.0% $54,873 73.1% $45,029 81.7% $40,674 85.5% Skilled workers $47,209 91.5% $58,417 75.9% $47,650 80.7% $40,297 81.4% Canadian experience $53,095 111.5% $53,138 97.9% Caregivers $39,570 87.0% $39,464 80.6% $32,714 88.7% $31,985 83.0% Entrepreneur etc $23,164 82.7% $20,666 94.9% $19,404 99.8% $14,802 132.3% Provincial Nominee $52,762 91.5% $49,366 84.7% $44,839 87.4% Family $36,575 90.8% $29,666 89.0% $25,184 87.2% $23,858 86.4% Refugees $36,266 80.6% $25,339 76.3% $21,299 87.2% $19,948 85.7% Government-assisted $37,318 84.1% $26,119 75.3% $17,261 99.5% $14,092 91.8% Privately sponsored $37,714 83.7% $27,642 75.3% $21,582 90.8% $19,719 115.5% Protected Person $30,946 73.2% $24,753 75.5% $21,836 82.2% $21,393 76.2% Highlighting: Non-citizen percentage citizen income 85 percent or less 20
  • 21. Naturalization — Income LICO Before Tax Citizen and Non-Citizen Comparison 21 1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years) Naturalization Rate LICO Above LICO Above LICO Above LICO Above Overall 91.3% 92.8% 84.7% 89.1% 61.6% 68.9% 39.5% 44.5% Economic PA 91% 92.9% 84.3% 90.7% 59.9% 72.3% 37.8% 49% Economic SD 92.3% 93.8% 88% 92.4% 64.6% 72.4% 38.8% 44.9% Family 89.5% 90.3% 81.2% 82.5% 57.2% 60.2% 35% 35.4% Refugees 93.3% 96.2% 86% 92.1% 65% 73.6% 47.3% 54.9% GARs 93.5% 96.7% 87.5% 93.8% 63.3% 70.2% 44.8% 49.3% PSRs 93.1% 96.1% 87.2% 94% 69% 75.6% 50.3% 50% LICO Prevalence Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Citizen Non Overall 15.6% 18.5% 16.6% 22.6% 18.6% 23.9% 20.8% 24.4% Economic PA 15.5% 19.2% 12.2% 20.2% 12.5% 20% 15% 21.9% Economic SD 12.6% 15.4% 14.4% 21.7% 18.2% 24.3% 20.5% 24.8% Family 15.5% 16.7% 18.4% 19.8% 19.3% 21.3% 19.7% 19.9% Refugees 19.1% 30.4% 24.3% 37.9% 29.8% 38.9% 35.3% 42.5% GARs 17.5% 30.1% 21.8% 37.7% 35.6% 43.1% 47.9% 52.6% PSRs 17.1% 27.4% 19.7% 35.7% 27.6% 34.7% 35.6% 35.3% Highlighting: Red — Gap of 10 percent or more, Orange — Gap 5-10 percent
  • 22. Naturalization — Income In LICO Before Tax Gender 22 1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years) Citizens M F M F M F M F Overall 91.3% 91.3% 84.4% 85.1% 60.7% 62.4% 39.2% 39.8% Economic PA 91% 91.1% 83.7% 85.6% 58.5% 62.1% 37% 39% Economic SD 93% 91.9% 88% 88% 64.4% 64.7% 38.8% 38.8% Family 88.8% 89.9% 79.7% 82% 55% 58.6% 34.1% 35.7% Refugees 93.3% 93.3% 86% 86% 65.3% 64.8% 47.8% 46.8% GARs 93.7% 93.2% 86.5% 88.3% 63.9% 62.8% 47.4% 42.8% PSRs 92.9% 93.4% 88.7% 86% 69.2% 68.4% 51.6% 47.1% Highlighting: Red — Less than 90 percent 1986-95, Orange — Less than 80 percent 1996-2005 Yellow — Less than 60 percent 2006-10, Green — Greater than 40 percent 2011
  • 23. Naturalization — Labour Force Difference Out/In, Unemployed/Employed — Census 2016 23 1986 - 1995 1996 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 (4 years) Citizens Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un Out/In Emp/Un Overall -2.0% -1.0% -3.0% -1.0% -6% -1% -6% -1% Economic PA -1% 0% -6% -2% -12% -2% -10% -1% Economic SD -1% 0% -2% 0% -1% 1% -2% 1% Family -2% -3% -3% -2% -6% -2% -5% 0% Refugee -2% -1% -4% -3% -6% -3% -2% -6% GARs -2% -1% -2% -5% -8% -1% 0% -6% PSRs -2% -1% -5% -4% -3% -5% -2% 2% Protected person -1% -2% -4% -2% -5% -3% -1% -9% Highlighting: Neg 5 percent or less
  • 25. Citizenship Take-Up Period of Immigration — NHS 2011, Census 2016 25% 50% 75% 100% Overall Before 1981 1981 - 2000* Last full period Partial period 30.5% 68.5% 90.4%91.9% 82.7% 36.7% 77.2% 91.4%92.7% 85.6% NHS Census 25Last full period: NHS 2001-5, Census 2006-10; Partial period: NHS 2006-11, Census 2011-16
  • 26. Citizenship Applications & Citizens 2000-16 IRCC Operational Data 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Applications Applications 3-Year Moving Average New Citizens PR Trendline PR Trendline 26
  • 27. 2017 Changes Limited Impact • Main impact: • Shorter residency (3 of 4 years compared to 4 of 6) • Fewer undergo language and knowledge assessment (18-54 rather than 14-64) — 5.9 percent (2009-13) • 17 months — 28 May 2015 to 11 October 2017 • One-time impact of residency change • Fees ongoing 27
  • 28. Concluding observations • Naturalization positive correlations: • Education, income, labour market participation • Economic and refugee categories • Whether or not the country of birth permits, officially or unofficially, dual citizenship • 2017 changes will have limited impact on naturalization rate • Immigrant-to-citizen model at risk 28
  • 29. Performance Standards Levels Approach • Current standard meaningless: Percent who are citizens of all immigrants from all periods • Replace by percent of the annual immigrant average of the previous Census period • Similar to annual immigration levels but set for five year period • Recommended 70-80 percent range — based on previous periods • 2016-20 level would be 170,000 to 193,000, higher than than the 148,000 in 2016 and estimated 110,000 in 2017 • A processing standard of 80% of applications receiving grants within 12 months of date submitted 29 Immigrants Percentage Scenarios Citizens Period Immigrants Annual Average 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Citizens Annual Average 2001-5 928,935 185,787 148,630 139,340 130,051 120,762 111,472 798,200 159,640 2006-10 1,056,095 211,219 168,975 158,414 147,853 137,292 126,731 723,020 144,604 2011-15 1,212,080 242,416 193,933 181,812 169,691 157,570 145,450
  • 30. Other Recommendations • More timely and comprehensive citizenship data sets • Monthly application stats alongside current new citizen stats • Annual immigration category, gender, time between landing and citizenship • Reduce adult fees to $300 (processing and right- of-citizenship) 30
  • 31. Policy Questions Citizenship • Balance between presence and mobility? Between meaningfulness and instrumental citizenship? • Does naturalization matter? • Should fees be based on cost recovery or mix of private and public interest considerations? • What percent of immigrants expected to naturalize within what period of time? • What voting rights should non-residents have? 31
  • 32. Andrew Griffith Email: agriffith232@gmail.com Twitter: @andrew_griffith LinkedIn: andrewlgriffith Facebook: Andrew Griffith C&M Blog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com Books: lulu.com