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Epic research daily agri report 23rd june 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
23 June 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
JUL 8150 8190 8082 8110 -0.54 4280
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8065
SUPP. 2
8019
PIVOT
8127
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8173
RES. 2
8235
CORIANDER
JUL 7100 7250 7100 7220 +2.01 6390
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7130
SUPP. 2
7040
PIVOT
7190
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7280
RES. 2
7340
GUARGUM
JUL 5340 5560 5320 5520 +2.99 23536
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5373
SUPP. 2
5227
PIVOT
5467
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5613
RES. 2
5707
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 6898 6856 +0.61
CORIANDER 7220 7078 +2.01
GUARGUM 5520 5360 +2.99
JEERA 17640 17620 +0.11
MUSTARD
SEED
4735 4755 -0.42
SOYABEAN 3847 3834 +0.34
TURMERIC 5110 8154 -0.54
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-07-2016 8110.00 -34.00 -0.42%
WHEAT 20-07-2016 1773.00 -5.00 -0.28%
BARLEY 20-07-2016 1574.50 -4.50 -0.28%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
SOY BEAN 20-07-2016 3847.00 16.00 0.42%
JEERA 20-07-2016 17640.00 50.00 0.28%
REF SOYA OIL 20-07-2016 645.50 1.55 0.24%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
As government proposes to bring new guidelines to regulate BT cotton
market, apex seed industry body NSAI today said there should not be any
need for licensing agreement with technology providers as seed firms have
right to access transgenic varieties to develop hybrids.The Union
Agriculture Ministry last month issued a notification prescribing new
guidelines for licensing and royalty/trait value fixation of BT cotton
seeds.Under the fresh norm, royalty for the new genetically modified (GM)
traits was capped at 10 per cent of the maximum sale price of BT cotton
seeds for the first 5 years. Eligible seed firms get access to the GM
technology was also ensured.But later, the government withdrew the
notification and turned it into a draft guidelines to seek comments from
stakeholders amid opposition from crop biotech industry."There is no need
of any licensing agreement for GM traits to be signed by the plant breeders,
farmers, researchers either in public or in private sector as per the
provisions under the Protection of Plant Varieties & Farmers' Right Act,
2001," National Seed Association of India (NSAI) President M Prabhakar
Rao said.He said "the breeders have a right to access any transgenic variety
for developing new varieties and need not sign any licence agreement for
carrying out the basic activities of the seed companies." Rao termed the
overall draft guidelines issued by the government as balanced."The one-
sided licensing agreement imposed by Monsanto has created monopoly in
Bt cotton seed market," NSAI Executive Director Kalyan Goswami
said.On trait value, Goswami said the association would support the
payment of royalty if it is "fair and reasonable" and encourages the
development of new GM technology.NSAI has prepared a draft response
and put it on its own website for comments from its 377 members by July
15.The government's draft policy came two months after it fixed the MSP
of Bt cotton seed packets at Rs 800 per packet for bollgard (BG)-II version
of Bt cotton hybrid, including Rs 49 for the trait value. The seed price was
fixed as per the Cotton Seeds Price Control Order issued in December
2015.As per the draft 'Licensing and Formats for GM Technology
Agreement Guidelines, 2016,' after the first 5 years, royalty would reduce
by 10 per cent of initial value every year.
Ref Soya oil on NCDEX settled down on over supply following
higher imports data. Prices also seen under pressure due to sufficient
supplies in the physical market and weak physical demand as edible oil
imports into the country decline last month. Moreover, sufficient stock
in the physical market on report of higher imports may weigh on prices
at higher levels. Oilmeal exports during May 2016 are reported at only
7,737 tons compared to 121,339 tons in May 2015 - down by 94%
according to data compiled by Solvent Extractors' Association of
India.Farmers of MP and Maharashtra may switch to pulses and other
cash crop due to lower crushing demand. According to the SOPA,
output of the soybean for 2015-16 is forecasted down at 6.9 mt,
compared to earlier estimate of 7.4 mt. According to USDA soy oil
stocks as of May 31 stood at 1.994 billion lbs. Stocks were 1.578
billion lbs a year ago and 1.943 billion at the end of April. USDA
trimmed 2015-16 United States soybean production forecast for June
and also cut its forecast for ending stockpiles, the department said in its
World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Jeera on NCDEX settled down on profit booking after prices gained
in last session on expectation of export demand and lower arrivals.
After suffering a setback during the last fiscal, jeera exports have
picked in the last 3-4 months with emergence of demand from China.
There are also reports that Bangladesh has removed jeera import duty.
Supplies from the other two major producers and exporters- Syria and
Turkey- are stated to be poor.Industrial buyers have already sourced
sufficient quantity for the domestic requirements but the export demand
may pick up as prices have been going down since last one month. In
the next few months, the prices will depend on export demand. At
Dhrol market in Jamnagar (Guj.), estimated market supply was at 37
quintals, up by 10 quintals as against previous day. At Patan market in
Patan (Guj.), total arrivals are at 17 quintals, down by 54 quintals from
previous day’s arrivals. At Nagaur(Raj.) total arrivals are at 100
quintals, down by 150 quintals from previous trading day. Exporters
reported active in the domestic market.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
Datagro predicted a global sugar supply deficit of 6.2 MT in 2015-16 while
the deficit is expected to expand further in 2016-17 to 7.1 MT.
The Thai Cane and Sugar Corp (TCSC) will be selling 1.09 lakh tons of raw
sugar (scheduled for shipment on March and May, 2017) via a tender on 28
June, 2016.
As per the latest UNICA report, Brazil’s centre south region had crushed
around 32.43 MT of sugarcane in the second half of May, 2016 to produce
1.68 MT of sugar there on.
The Indonesian govt. issued import permit for shipment of one lakh ton of
white sugar in between June – October, 2016.
With a view to control soaring sugar prices within the country, the Indian
govt. had imposed an export duty of 20% on exports of sugar (raw, white or
refined).
Indian sugar exports fell by 43% as the country exported 30.9 thousand tons
of sugar for the week ending 12th Jun, 2016 compared to 53.8 thousand tons
of exports made in the previous week.
The Karnataka govt. exempted purchase tax and cess (for the next two years
i.e. till 31st March, 2018) to those sugar millers in the state which comply with
the payment of pending cane arrears to the farmers for the past three years i.e.
2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16.
CENTER 21-Jun-16 20-May-16 Change
DELHI 3700 3700 UNCH
MUMBAI 3802 3802 UNCH
VIJAYWADA 3900 3900 UNCH
NAGPUR 3700 3700 UNCH
CHENNAI 3425 3425 UNCH
AMBIKAPUR 3035 3035 UNCH
DHAMPUR 3670 3670 UNCH
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JULY ABOVE 7225 TARGET 7270 7370 SL
BELOW 7160
BUY GUARGUM JULY ABOVE 5560 TARGET 5610 5680 SL
BELOW 5500
SELL TURMERIC JULY BELOW 8082 TARGET 8038 7978 SL
ABOVE 8142
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