Keynote Presentation: Megatrends and Knowledge Requirements to Inform Action

1. Executive Chairperson
AKADEMIYA2063
MEGATRENDS KNOWLEDGE REQUIREMENTS
Ousmane Badiane, PhD, Dr. hc

2. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
The Post Malabo Agenda
Megatrends and Knowledge Needs
Renewal and Reversal since Maputo
Opportunities for Revitalization
Priorities for Post Malabo
Data and Knowledge gaps
Outline

3. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
RENEWAL AND REVERSAL
Looking Back at Two Decades under CAADP

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LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS
Strongest pace of sustained economic growth since independence

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LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS
Reversal of rising poverty and malnutrition levels in 80s and 90s

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LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS
Reversal of decline in annual agricultural expenditure levels

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LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS
Reversal of declining land and labor productivity levels in 80s and 90s

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PROGRESSING STALLING
Sharp deceleration of per capita income growth in recent years

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PROGRESSING STALLING
After decade of decline malnutrition levels are rising again

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PROGRESSING STALLING
Flat and declining share of public expenditure invested in agriculture

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PROGRESSING STALLING
After decade of decline public debt levels are rising again

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR REVITALIZATION
Drivers for successful Post Malabo agenda

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Rising level of intra-African agricultural trade: more than doubled
US$
Billion

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Rapidly expanding domestic market for food fueled by income growth

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Fastest rate of agricultural growth of any region

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Rapidly rising processing sector transforming food value chains

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Dominant share of processed foods in intra-African trade

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Harnessing safe use of biotechnologies to boost productivity and resilience
Bt Pest Resistant Cowpea Bt Drought Resistant Maize
Courtesy: African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF). Kenya

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OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON
Innovations thru remote sensing and artificial intelligence in agriculture

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DEFINING PRIORITIES FOR POST MALABO
Tackling legacy and emerging challenges

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OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES
Wide-ranging effects of climate change across all economic sectors
Source: Fofana, I. 2023. Economic cost of climate change and adaptation strategies. CACCI Field Notes, no. 4. AKADEMIYA2063
Source: Fofana, I. 2023. Economic cost of climate change and adaptation strategies. CACCI Field Notes, no. 4. AKADEMIYA2063
Change in sectoral value added (%): Mali

22. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES
High level of vulnerability to shocks in general
Source: Badiane et al. 2022. Growth and Employment Effects among African Countries. Ukraine Crisis Brief, no. 5. AKADEMIYA2063
Poverty Effects of global trade disruption from Ukraine war in Kenya

23. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES
Changing nature of demand constraints facing smallholder producers
Source: Badiane et al. 2021. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report. AKADEMIYA2063

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
For Planning and Implementation of Post Malabo

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Investment and expenditure prioritization, targeting and effectiveness
Poverty impact of successful Malabo Agenda: Kenya Investment typology for maximum poverty effects: Ghana
Foresight and Tracking Analytics

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Foresight and Tracking Analytics
Climate adaption investment options and cost
Minimum investment scale: share of cultivated areas to be covered (%)

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
2023 Barley production forecast: Ethiopia
Foresight and Tracking Analytics
Potential effects of global trade shocks
Gross Domestic Product (Bn. KSh): Kenya
Timely and granular agricultural sector data

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
GHG emissions, biogeophysical and climate risk variables
Methane concentration
Methane over cropland
Soil organic carbon content Land use and land cover
Drought risk index
Rainfall anomaly

29. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Emerging processing sector and agrifood industry dynamics
Labor productivity growth (%) Capital-labor growth (%)
Source: Ellis, M. et al. 2022. ReSAKSS ATOR. AKADEMIYA2063

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Economic growth and processing sector firm level innovation
Rate innovation food and non-food processing sector
Source: Tadesse and Gachango. 2022. ReSAKSS ATOR. AKADEMIYA2063
DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Emerging processing sector and agrifood industry dynamics

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Nature and drivers of community level vulnerability
Household vulnerability index

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Nature and drivers of community level vulnerability
Household micronutrient adequacy gaps

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DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS
AKADEMIYA2063 Flagships for Data and Analytics

34. THANK YOU