Given by Courtney Weatherby of the Stimson Center, this presentation looked at the genesis of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism and highlighted some opportunities and risks.

1. Future of the Mekong: A
Perspec4ve on Transboundary
Water Governance
Courtney Weatherby
The S0mson Center
Washington D.C.

2. What’s the regional context in which the
LMCM emerged?
• Ins0tu0onal Context: How does the Lancang Mekong Coopera0ve
Mechanism compare to previously-exis0ng regional organiza0ons?
• The GMS?
• The MRC?
• The LMI?
• Geopoli0cal Context:
• US Rebalance to Asia
• Previous efforts have been financially and substan0vely limited and have
failed to involve all necessary state actors
• LMCM is poten0ally an avenue for substan0ve and robust engagement, BUT
its design and inten0ons remain vague and largely unknown

3. Op4mis4c Assessment:
• It’s unclear at this point, but the LMCM has the poten0al to do two
things:
• 1) depart from China’s past preference for bilateral engagement towards a
more mul0lateral framework
• 2) support China’s evolu0on into a “responsible stakeholder” and follow-
through on statements that leaders have struggled to implement regarding
sustainability
• If either of these happens, this will be an example of successful
approach to regional rela0ons.
• Virtuous circle
• “Complementary compe00on”

4. What do we know about the LMCM?
• A Brief Timeline: Li Keqiang’s 2014 Fall Statement, LMCM Foreign
Ministers’ Mee0ng November 2015; Sanya China-ASEAN Summit in March
2016;
• Areas of Interest: Broad and vague
• Connec0vity
• Produc0on capacity
• Cross-border economic coopera0on
• Water resources
• Agriculture
• Poverty Reduc0on
• LMCM Fund
• $1.5 in concessional loans
• $10 billion lines of credit for LMCM partner countries, largely for infrastructure and
connec0vity projects

5. Risk: Water may be lost in the mix
• The heart of the LMCM should be the river.
• Significant differences in how Lower Mekong countries and
communi0es connect to and view the river and how China views it
• Based on the focal points from the Sanya Summit, the LMCM
currently appears to be too much of an old approach, which will limit
substan0ve engagement on issues of concern and not properly push
China to take a leadership role
• If another member country was taking the lead, then the lader point
wouldn’t be an issue—however, it’s not clear that any of the LMCM members
are able or willing to take on the role of sustainability champion

6. Recommenda4ons
• Data sharing is water sharing. Explore a treaty with Lower Mekong
countries regarding water-sharing commitments
• No/fica/on and consulta/on
• Joint studies
• Currently small-scale in nature and limited
• Should include a transparent cumula0ve impact assessments
• Sharing of best prac/ces
• Ul/mately, China has a role to play on the so?ware and
management side of coopera/on as much as it does in providing
loans to support concrete infrastructure projects.