Back To Norms, study about defining the seasonality patterned of Dubai Airport Using Forecasting for both short term and long term - keeping the out come results.

1. Back To Norms
3-5 Oct. 2022 Dubai - UAE
By:
Mohammed Salem Awad
Corporate Planning Director
Yemenia

2. Outline
• Introduction
• Forecasting,Goals andTarget.
• Driver ForEconomic Growth.
• Manufacture Concept
• Shocksin Aviation History
• BlackSwan Situation.
• Airline Industry
• Expected RecoveryPeriod
• ForecastTraffic Evaluation
• Airbus
• Polling
• AirlineIndustryModel
• TimeSeries
• RotationalandDisplacement
• LevelingApproach
• Dubai Int. Airport (DXB)
• Input Data (2007-2019)
• Back To Norms
• Trend Analysis
• SeasonalityAnalysis Outline
• SeasonalityAnalysis- Details
• Results
• Summary
• References

3. Introduction
“The magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis for airlines is enormous.
Over the 2020-2022 period total losses could top $200 billion.
To survive airlines have dramatically cut costs and adapted their
business to whatever opportunities were available.
That will see the $137.7 billion loss of 2020 reduce to $52 billion this year. And that will
further reduce to $12 billion in 2022.
We are well past the deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path to
recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again.”
Willie Walsh
IATA’s Director General.

4. Forecasting, Goals and Targets
• Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments –
but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster,
a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a
deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with
an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles ,
seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a
minimum acceptable margin errors .
Introduction

5. Introduction
Driver for Economic growth and
Air Traffic Methodologies
Demand vs Supply
In Aviation
Industry:
Forecasting
depends on the
analyst, data
sampling, and in
what scope should
we treat the
process of
forecast, as it is
involves many
drivers.

6. Introduction
• In Aviation Industry, Every One Has its own
Concept to Forecast and evaluate the Demand
based on their strategies and philosophy.
• Airbus philosophy is based on consolidation
“Hub-to-Hub”. Leadingto manufacture A380
• Boeing philosophy is based on Fragmentation
“Point-to-Point”. Leadingto manufacture B787
Dreamliner.
• That’s for longterm forecasting.
• But for short term forecasting, we always face the
seasonality term.
• General practice the Airline Industry Model can be
expressed by The ARIMA seasonal model.
• Yemenia – applied a new approach addressing
Signal tracking, that control the displacement and
rotational factors of the new model.
Manufacture Concept

7. Introduction
• Shocks in Aviation History

8. Introduction
Black Swan Situation
Black Swan Theory:
A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were
impossible to happen.
The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds
of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western
Australia in the 18th century.
- It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and
- After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear.
The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black
swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus
such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main
characteristics:
- It has not occurred in the recent past, and
- the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored.
- It has a profound impact on societies around the world.
- They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.

9. Introduction
Black Swan Situation

10. Airline Industry
Back To Norms will be May 2023 – Jan 2024
Expected Recovery Period

11. Airline Industry
Back To Norms will be May 2023 – Jan 2024

12. Airline Industry
12
Total Voting = 12234+ 1671 = 13905 Votes
Polling - Delphi Method

13. Airline Industry Model
Airline Forecasting Industry Model – Time Series

14. Airline Industry Model
Directional and Displacement Factors
Directional Displacement

15. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
Directional
Displacement

16. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
(Slope = Zero)
Directional
Displacement
(The right Displacement factor define by
Minimum Least Square analysis which
consequently lead to the highest
Coefficient of Correlation )

17. Airport Industry - Case Study
Dubai International Airport
Back To Norms

18. Dubai Airport - Seasonality
Data Input Range : 2007 - 2019
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19. Dubai Airport - Seasonality
Data Input Range : 2007 - 2019
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20. Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis (Setting Target)
12 Moving Average
Two trend models (but select 2019 figure)
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21. Seasonality Analysis (Pax. Outline)
Outline
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22. Seasonality Analysis ( Pax. Details)
Details
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23. Results
Airline Industry Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024
Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On : 2024
Airbus Analysis = Recovery 2023 - 2025
Dubai International Airport = Recovery On Nov. 2023
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24. Summary 1/2
Forecasting is an important tool for
planning, so without planning, there will
be a disaster that may happen, i.e what
will happen in case of Force Major
Industry practice, we always use a point
to point analysis (Month by Month and
Year by Year – YoY ) in terms of
percentage which is reflected by V shape
Curve ( Black Swain Situation) in the
current situation. We just monitoring the
situation –as its beyond your plans and
controls.
In case of Airline industry, demand
evaluation and forecasting are a must.
But we have first to define the Recovery
Period. As everyone has its own word.
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25. Summary 2/2
All signals indicate, that the airline industry will recovered by 2024.
Also for international operation still the world suffering from COVID 19 – especially
Europe. Due to most of countries practicing the COVID 19 travelling restriction
between them, and the crises between Russia and Ukraine is another factor.
While for Dubai Airport, its is obviously will be back to Norms on Nov. 2023.
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26. References
Air Passengers Market Analysis
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-
repository/publications/economic-reports/air-
passenger-monthly-analysis---march-2022/
Airline Traffic Forecasting
https://www.slideshare.net/forecasting/presentations
Airport Traffic Forecasting
https://www.slideshare.net/wings_of_wisdom/airport-
forecasting-100-issues
Air Transport Monitor
https://www.icao.int/sustainability/pages/air-traffic-
monitor.aspx
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27. Contact
Thank
You
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