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HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH & ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
- 2. POPULATION MODULE • Importance of human population • Population growth measures • World & UAE population growth • Factors that affect population growth • Why worry about population growth • What will save us – Sustainable development etc. 2
- 3. Importance of population: Why study population in environmental science • Humans can damage environment through • Over fishing • Pollution – cars, planes, factories & industries • Urbanization and landscaping 3
- 4. Human Population Growth • The human population of the Earth is growing very rapidly at this time, more than at any other time in history. – It took 130 years for the world’s population to increase from 1 billion to 2 billion. – It took only 12 years for the world’s population to increase from 5 billion to 6 billion. – It took another 12 years for the world’s population to increase from 6 billion to 7 billion (2011). • This growth is now at a rate of 3 people/second, 260,000/day or 1.83 million/week. • Every 3 years, the global environment must support another 285 million people. 4
- 5. Date Years between Population 1800 1 billion 130 1930 2 billion 30 1960 3 billion 14 1974 4 billion 13 1987 5 billion 12 1999 6 billion 12 2011 7 billion 5 World Population Growth
- 6. Population Change in 2001 6
- 7. Source: CIA World Fact book (2011 estimates) Population Change in 2011 Annual % change 7
- 8. Population Growth in the UAE UAE National Statistics Center (2011 estimates): • The UAE has recorded the highest total population growth rate in the Middle East in the past 15 years. • A 65% increase in total population in the last 4 years. • An 11.4% increase in the total UAE population in the last 4 years.* 8
- 9. Human Population Growth • The population of the UAE has also been growing with implications for the environment • All Emirates are experience population growth – from Abu Dhabi to RAK 9
- 10. Year Growth Rate UAE Population 1970 248,000 1975 125.00% 557,887 1980 86.77% 1,042,000 1985 24.76% 1,379,000 1990 36.38% 1,773,000 1995 35.98% 2,411,000 2000 34.67% 3,247,000 2005 26.39% 4,104,000 2010 101.36% 8,264,000 UAE Population Growth 10 In 2005, 20% of the total population of the UAE were Emiratis, in 2010, 11% of the total population of the UAE were Emiratis (UAE National Statistics Bureau)
- 11. UAE Population by Nationality and Gender (end 2009-mid 2010) 11 Nationality Estimates (Mid 2010) Male Female Total Nationals 479,109 468,888 947,997 Non-Nationals 5,682,711 1,633,362 7,316,073 Grand Total 6,161,820 2,102,250 8,264,070 %Nationals 7.8 22.3 11.0 * 11.0% of the total population are UAE Nationals. Source: UAE National Statistics Center (Estimates)
- 12. UAE National Population by Age Groups and Gender (2010) 12 Age Group M F Total M (%) F (%) Total (%) UAE Nationals (2010) % UAE Nationals (2010) <15 185,016 175,187 360,203 38.6 37.4 38.0 15 to <40 219,709 223,748 443,457 45.9 47.7 46.8 40 to <60 51,957 53,593 105,550 10.8 11.4 11.1 >=60 22,427 16,360 38,787 4.7 3.5 4.1 Total 479,109 468,888 947,997 100 100 100 Source: UAE National Bureau of Statistics Estimates * 38% of the UAE Nationals are <15 years of age.
- 13. UAE National Population by Gender and Emirate (end 2008-mid 2010) 13 Emirates Estimates (mid 2010) Male Female Total Abu Dhabi 204,108 200,438 404,546 Dubai 84,245 83,784 168,029 Sharjah 78,818 74,547 153,365 Ajman 21,600 20,586 42,186 Umm Al Qaiwain 8,671 8,811 17,482 Ras Al Khaimah 49,181 48,348 97,529 Fujairah 32,486 32,374 64,860 Grand Total 479,109 468,888 947,997 Source: UAE National Statistics Center (Estimates)
- 14. Thought Question • Why has the UAE been encouraging population growth for Nationals? 14
- 15. Answer • To increase the proportion of locals in the population • Population size is relatively small • Economy can support higher population • Higher population would support the economy 15
- 16. Population Growth Defined • Population growth means the change in the size of population • The rate of population growth means the change of population size in a given unit of time, usually one year. • Population size is affected by the birth rate, the death rate, the immigration rate, and the emigration rate population change = (birth + immigration) – (death + emigration) 16
- 17. Population Growth: a mathematical example • If in Country A in 2010, there were 5000 births, 1500 deaths, newly arrived expatriates of 300 and departing expatriates of 500, what was the change in population? 17 = ( 5000 + 300 ) – (1500 + 500) population change = (deathimmigrationbirth + emigration)+( ) – = (5300 ) – (2000) = 3300 “positive change” Therefore, population increased (more people)
- 18. Problems with Population Growth • Developing Countries – Good health care • Developed Countries – high ecological footprint 18
- 19. Ecological Footprint - Natural Capital Use and Degradation 19
- 20. World Map of Countries by Ecological Footprint per Capita (per Person) 2010 20
- 21. Biological capacity (bio capacity): the earth’s ecological capacity, the capacity of an area of earth to supply resources (renewable) and absorb waste. If a country’s total ecological footprint is larger than its bio capacity, it is said to have an ecological deficit. In other words, the people in that country are living unsustainably by depleting its natural capital. (EF > BC) If a country’s ecological footprint is lower than its bio capacity, it is said to have an ecological surplus. The people in that country are living sustainably without depleting its natural capital. (EF < BC)
- 24. Ecological Footprint by Region WWF Living Planet Report 2004 (2001 data) 24
- 25. ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT AND BIOCAPACITY BY REGION, 2003 25 Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity by Region WWF Living Planet Report 2006 (2003 data)
- 26. United Arab Emirates • Total ecological footprint of UAE (according to 2010 Living Planet Report): – 10.7 global ha/person (highest in the world) – Biocapacity • 0.8 global ha/person – Ecological deficit • -9.9 global ha/person • Attention: The world average ecological footprint is 2.7 global ha/person, but the earth can only support 1.8 global ha/person 26
- 27. Developing Countries How can we slow population growth? • Solutions: – Family Planning & Education – Economics – Elevate the social and economic status of women 27
- 28. Developed Countries: How can we reduce Ecological Footprints? • Solutions: – Sustainable Development 28
- 29. The Global Solution • Reduce the Wealth Gap! – Rich countries are using resources from poor countries to maintain a high standard of living for their populations. – Poor countries are selling their resources cheaply in order to provide services for their people. Often their environment suffers because of this. – Wealth gap: The economic inequality between the developed and developing nations. Reducing the wealth gap will help decrease environmental problems. 29
Editor's Notes
- *2011 estimates: From 2006 until 2010, the population of the UAE Nationals has increased by 96,833 to a total of 947,997 (11.4% increase)
- There are three important factors when dealing with the growth or decline of populations: number of births (fertility), number of deaths (mortality) and number of migrations. Population change: number of people entering a country ( through birth and immigration) minus number of people leaving that country ( through death and emigration). When births and immigration increase, there is an increase in population and when deaths and emigration increase, there is a decline in population.
- Living Planet Report 2008: The ecological footprint of the world is much higher than our planet’s capacity. The data on top shows the total and per capita ecological footprints of selected countries. The graph in the bottom shows that in 2008, humanity’s total or global ecological footprint was at least 30% higher than the earth’s biological capacity. It is projected that around 2035, the total ecological footprint will be twice the planet’s biological capacity. Question: If we are living beyond the earth’s renewable biological capacity, why do you think the human population and per capita resource consumption are still growing rapidly? See www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFn/page/world_footprint/
- Published on 13 Oct 2010 by Global Footprint Network (based on data gathered in 2007) The world-average ecological footprint in 2007 was 2.7 global hectares per person. With a world-average bio capacity of 1.8 global hectares per person, this lead to an ecological deficit of 0.9 global hectares per person during that time. Biological capacity (bio capacity): the earth’s ecological capacity, the capacity of an area of earth to supply resources (renewable) and absorb waste. If a country’s total ecological footprint is larger than its bio capacity, it is said to have an ecological deficit. In other words, the people in that country are living unsustainably by depleting its natural capital. On the other hand, there are some countries or regions in the world where their bio capacity is higher than their ecological footprint.
- A comparison of each region's footprint with its biocapacity shows whether that region has an ecological reserve or is a deficit. Note that even with its considerable biocapacity, North America has the largest per person deficit with the average person using 3.7 global hectares more than the region has available. The European Union (EU) is next with a per person deficit of 2.6 global hectaires. At the other extreme is Latin America with ecological reserves of 3.4 global hectares per capita, the average person's footprint is only about one third of the biocapacity available in the region per person.
- Family planning: providing educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when to have them. Such programs vary from culture to culture, but most provide information on birth control, birth spacing and health care for the infant and pregnant women. Studies have shown that in developing countries, family planning has been responsible for a 55% drop in fertility rates, from the 1960’s to 2007. Still many obstacles remain: around 201 million couples in the developing countries want to limit the number of their children but they have no access to family planning services.
- Wealth gap: The economic inequality between the developed and developing nations. Reducing the wealth gap will help decrease environmental problems.