Climate change impacts on biodiversity Saadullah Ayaz

Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

Saadullah Ayaz
IUCN- Pakistan

IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE, PAKISTAN

BIODIVERSITY AND IUCN

IUCN believes that conserving biodiversity involves addressing
(i) species and their sub-populations; (ii) genetic diversity; and (iii)
ecosystems. Hundreds of projects are underway around the world aimed
at saving species and ecosystems and providing the knowledge needed
for successful conservation action. IUCN's biodiversity conservation work
is carried out by its various programmes including Water, Forests,
Marine, Species, Ecosystem Management and Protected Areas. The
following IUCN’s global programme cater for biodiversity concerns:

IUCN Species Programme
IUCN Global Marine Programme
IUCN Water Programme
IUCN Forest Conservation Programme
IUCN Ecosystem Management Programme
IUCN Protected Areas Programme
http://www.iucn.org/what/tpas/biodiversity/solutions/
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

CLIMATE CHANGE AND IUCN

IUCN believes that conserving nature can help reduce greenhouse
gas emissions (mitigation) and help us adapt to the impacts of climate
change

IUCN’s work puts nature at the centre of climate change solutions in
hundred of programmes and projects across the world

IUCN’s Climate Change Network coordinates and facilitates climate
change work across the Union’s programmes, commissions and
member organizations. IUCN’s UN Observer Status offers a unique
position at key international decision-making fora, including the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

http://www.iucn.org/what/tpas/climate/


IUCN AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

The Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Thematic Group of IUCN’s
Commission on Ecosystem Management (CEM), promotes the science
and practice of Ecosystem-based Adaptation.

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is the use of biodiversity and
ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help
people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.

EbA aims to maintain and increase the resilience and reduce the
vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of the adverse
effects of climate change.


IUCN- PEOPLE AND LIVELIHOODS

IUCN introduced “Community-based Risk Screening Tool - Adaptation
and Livelihoods”
(CRISTAL)

CRISTAL can reduce impacts of climate change on community
livelihoods

First tested in IUCN project in Mali
(Inner Delta of the Niger River)

Made available by IUCN for wider global use
(Aliou.Faye@iucn.org)


IUCN’S GUIDELINES FOR
PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLES

IUCN developed “Guidelines for Applying the Precautionary
Principle to Biodiversity Conservation and Natural Resource
Management”

Responding to uncertainty (also relevant to climate change)

www.pprinciple.net


CC AS DRIVER OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS

A comprehensive assessment of the links between ecosystem health
and human well-being, climate change is likely to become the
dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss by the end of the century
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2007)

Projected changes in climate, combined with land use change and
the spread of exotic or alien species, are likely to limit the capability
of some species to migrate and therefore will accelerate species loss
(CBD, 2009)

The impacts of climate change on biodiversity are of major concern
to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The Convention
also recognizes that there are significant opportunities for mitigating
climate change and adapting to it, while enhancing the conservation
of biodiversity


BIODIVERSITY AND CC NEXUS

The links between biodiversity and climate change run both ways:
biodiversity is threatened by climate change, but proper
management of biodiversity can reduce the impacts of climate
change

Biodiversity and Ecosystem (including; forests, wetlands and
oceans) play a role in climate regulation and impacts regional and
global climate changes)

The changing climate has become a major driver of biodiversity
loss and threatens its role as a source of essential ‘goods and
services’


BIODIVERSITY AND CC NEXUS

adaptation for biodiversity – Adaptation measures are
needed to protect biodiversity, to enable the widest range of
biodiversity to survive and adapt, and to meet legal duties for
biodiversity protection.

biodiversity for adaptation – Biodiversity can also play
an integral part in adaptation measures for other sectors, such as
coastal protection by salt marshes.

Source: UN Convention on Biological Diversity (2001)


IMPACTS OF CC ON BIODIVERSITY
IMPACTS EXAMPLES

Coral die-offs up to 50% in
Die-offs Indian Ocean

A Specie of Golden Toad in
Extinctions Costa Rica

Gothic Marmots emerge
Life Cycles about One month earlier
than 30 years ago

Avg. weight of female polar
Physiology bears has decreased by
20% in last 25 Years


IMPACTS OF BIODIVERSITY ON CC
IMPACTS EXAMPLES

Forests account for more
Reducing than half on the carbon
Emissions stored in the world

Land races of many crops
Biodiversity provide genetic material for
Net development of drought
resistant crop varieties

The vale of mangroves for
protection of coasts has
Bio Sheilds been estimated $25-#50 per
hectare


CC THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY

• Impacts on production of ecosystems

• Shrinking habitats (forests and wetlands)
• Desertification
• Damage to aquatic ecosystems (coral reefs, fisheries)
• Shifts in the natural world (climate change impacts at least 420 physical
and biological processes),

- Upward migration of plant and animal species,
- Disappearance of some plant and animal species in certain areas,
- Impact on breeding behavior,
- Change in growing season of plants and agriculture crops,
- Species extinction (some 25% of mammals and 12% of birds are
threatened).


GLOBAL EXAMPLES

Frogs rely on water to breed, any reduction or
change in rainfall could reduce frog reproduction.
Moreover, rising temperatures are closely linked to
outbreaks of a fungal disease that contributes to
the decline of amphibian populations

The projected rise in sea levels could cause the
disappearance of the tigers habitat, threatening the
survival of the species in coastal forests of Asia


GLOBAL EXAMPLES

In Africa, pressures from longer dry periods and
shrinking living spaces are making elephants highly
vulnerable to climate change

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef could lose up to 95%
of its living coral by 2050 due to changes in ocean
temperature and chemistry


CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS- PAKISTAN

1. 12th most vulnerable country (Maplecroft 2010)

2. Losing at least 19% of GDP each year (Yale University 2005)

3. Emission share= 0.8% of world’s total- 135th ranking (in 2008)

Total emissions= 309 million tones CO2 eqv.
- comprising of 54% CO2,
- 36% Methane,
- 9% Nitrous Oxide
- 1% other gases

The biggest contributor is the energy sector with 50% share,
followed by the agriculture sector (39% share), industrial
processes (6% share) and other activities (5% share).


CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS- PAKISTAN (contd.)

4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C, since early 1900s
(IPCC- FAR 2007)

5. Temperature may further increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (GCISC 2009)
• 1.3- 1.5 °C by 2020s
• 2.5- 2.8 °C by 2050s
• 3.9- 4.4 °C by 2080s
• 2.8- 3.4 °C by the turn of the 21st century

6. Decrease in precipitation= 10 to 15% in last 40 years (IPCC 2007)

7. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years,
resulting in decrease of river flows by up to 30 to 40%
(GCISC 2008)


BIODIVERSITY FACTS- PAKISTAN (contd.)

1. Status of Species

• Higher plants= 5700
• Lower plants (pteridophytes)= 189
• Lower plants (algae, fungi)= 5275

• Mammals= 195
• Breeding birds= 668
• Amphibian and Reptiles= 199
• Fish (fresh and marine)= 976
• Lower animals = 6182
(including; echinoderms, crustaceans, molluscs, annelids, and arthropods)

• Threatened species= 73 Source: MoEnv., 2010



1. Protected Areas (as of 2010)
• Number of Protected Areas= 224
(including ; 23 National Parks, 97 Game Sanctuaries, 104 Game Reserves)

• Total area under protection = 9,852,006 ha.

2. Forest Biodiversity
• Scrub and Trees on farmlands 4.73 million ha. (5.014 % of land)
• Others (coniferous, scrub, riverine and mangrove 3.5 million ha. (2.7 %)

3. Agricultural Biodiversity
• Canal irrigated land= 55,982.39 ha. (19.15 % of land)
• Rain- fed= 2,739.42 ha. (3.28 % of land)
• Rain water harvested= 8,28.05 ha. (0.99 % of land) Source:
MoEnv., 2010



4. Livestock Diversity
• Buffalo breeds= 2
• Cattle breeds = 8
• Yak breed= 1
• Goat and Sheep breeds = 53
• Horse breeds = 23
• Camel breeds = 4
• Indigenous poultry breeds = 3

Source: MoEnv., 2010


CC AND BIODIVERSITY IN PAKISTAN

IMPACTS ON FOREST RESOURCES

• Forest lands in northern mountain areas of Pakistan would shift from one
biome to another (north-ward) which would decrease in the productivity of
this precious resource
• Change in specie distribution has been recorded, some plant species
have gained elevation
• Lower productivity from forest ecosystems is predicted due to change in
temperature and water regimes
• Spread of pathogens and diseases become frequent and wider

• Incidences of fire (sub-tropical) have become common due to drought

• Mangrove depletetion due to sea intrusion


CC AND BIODIVERSITY IN PAKISTAN (contd…)

IMPACTS ON FAUNA

• Shrinkage of habitat is intense

• Some species of freshwater mollusks and amphibians have been found
threatened

• Higher elevation gained by insects (moths and butterflies)

• Habitat of brown bear has warmed up, distribution has changed

• Long-tailed Marmots are recorded to appear early from hibernation

• Drastic decline in population of migratory birds, due to depletetion of
water bodies and feeding habitat

Many more we don’t know…..!!

CC- AS AN OPPORTUNITY
• Population of large mammals (Markhor and Ibex) have reportedly
been increased due to expansion of feeding grounds. Since they
have gained elevation and hence are protected from human
influence (conservation value of Markhor= US$ 80000)
• Some project interventions have successfully introduced fish
breeding (cold water) and hence helped in conservation of local
fish population in natural water bodies
• Agriculture practices (particularly wheat cultivation) in northern
areas is reportedly increasing due to higher temperatures. This is
transforming agriculture thus promoting livelihoods
• Increased water flows (glacial melt) is encouraging for hydro-
power generation. IN some areas, community based micro hydel
system has been adopted


Transforming agriculture in High altitude areas


Development of Micro Hydel in Dir- Kohistan


"Like water, air and soil, biological diversity is the hub
of the wheel of life. Destroy it, and the wheel, however
technologically sophisticated…,
will no longer run"

(Anonymous)


Thanks

For more information”

Saadullah Ayaz
Coordinator Climate Change/
Environmental Fiscal Reforms/
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities
IUCN Pakistan
Email: saad.ayaz@iucn.org

Climate change impacts on biodiversity Saadullah Ayaz

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