NBIF mobile apps

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  • 1. Mobile  Apps  State  of  the  Stores   Rick  Rasmussen   General  Consulate  of   Canada   Palo  Alto,  CA  
  • 2. Outline  •  Worldwide  impact  of  mobile  phones  •  Mobile  phones  are  computers  •  Ba@le  of  the  operaAng  systems  •  App  development  for  phones  •  App  distribuAon  •  App  stores  •  So,  you  want  to  market  your  app?  •  Trends  and  Metrics   2  
  • 3. Worldwide  Impact    of    Mobile  Phones   3  
  • 4. The  Seven  “Mass  Media”  1.  Print  (books,  pamphlets,  newspapers,  magazines)   from  the  late  1400s  2.  Recordings  (records,  tapes,  CDs,  DVDs)     from  the  late  1800s  3.  Cinema  from  about  1900  4.  Radio  from  about  1910  5.  Television  from  about  1950  6.  Internet  from  about  1990  7.  Mobile  Phones  from  about  2000   4  
  • 5. Mobile  explosion  •  World  populaAon        ~7.0B  •  Current  subscribers              2.6B  •  End  2010                  4.0B      iSuppli  •  End  2011                  5.2B      InfoneAcs  •  In  2010,  phone  prices  as  low  as  $15      iSuppli  •  Mobile  broadband  growing  at  110%  CAGR  InfoneAcs  •  577M  using  mobile  web,  1.7B  by  2013    Juniper  •  2.1B  users  will  “pay  by  phone”  by  2013    Juniper   5  
  • 6. Mobile  growth   6  
  • 7. Developing  countries   7  
  • 8. Developing  countries   8  
  • 9. Mobile  in  Developing  Countries  •  Mobile  compensates  for  poor   infrastructure   –  Bad  roads   –  Slow  postal  service  •  GDP  grows  by  0.8%  for  every  10   extra  phones  per  100  people  (world   bank)  •  Mobile  payments   –  Bypass  corrupAon   –  More  efficient  movement  of  capital   –  Kenya:    7M  users  in  a  38M   populaAon  base   9  
  • 10. Advent  of  the  ‘smartphone’  •  Feature  phone:   –  Runs  apps  provided  by   carrier   –  Includes  email,  internet,   keyboard,  PDA  funcAons  •  First  model  “Simon”  from   IBM  1992   –  Touchscreen,  stylus,   predicAve  input…     –  Cool!  •  Smartphone:   –  Allows  downloads  of  new   applicaAons  from  carriers,   third  parAes  and  others   10  
  • 11. Global  Smart  phone  market  share  Total  2Q:          40.962  M  Annualized:    163.848  M   11  
  • 12. Global  smartphone  market  by  OS   12  
  • 13. North  American  smartphone  market  Source:  Gartner  Research  2Q09   13  
  • 14. Mobile  Phones    are  Computers   iPhone  3G  teardown   14  
  • 15. Phones  as  devices  •  CommunicaAon  •  InformaAon  •  Entertainment   –  Mobile  Content  •  Phones  are  computers   –  Increased  processing  power   –  Increased  memory   –  Increased  connecAvity  •  Portable  operaAng  systems  are  enabling  technologies    •  Sojware  more  important  than  hardware   –  ApplicaAons  are  the  new  currency   15  
  • 16. The  Sensory  Phone  •  Mobile  computers,  fully  aware  of  local     environment,  mimicking  human  senses  •  Sight:   –  SAll  and/or  video  camera   –  Scanner   –  High  resoluAon  display  output  •  Sound:   –  Audio  input  with  noise  correcAon   –  Speech  recogniAon   –  Hi-­‐fidelity  audio  output  •  Touch   –  Full  screen,  MulA-­‐touch,  MulA-­‐gesture   –  HapAcs  (sensory  feedback)   –  Proximity  sensors   –  Accelerometers   –  LocaAon  (GPS  and  LBS)  •  Smell  and  Taste?    Soon!   16  
  • 17. The  Connected  Phone  •  New  protocols  keep  devices   connected  •  Wireless  WAN   –  CDMA,  GSM,  3G,  4G,  LTE  •  Wireless  LAN   –  EV-­‐DO,  Edge,  WiFi,  WiMax  •  Wireless  PAN   –  Bluetooth,  UWB  •  Mobile  TV   –  ATSC,  DVB-­‐H,  ISDB-­‐T,  DMB-­‐T  •  Wired  protocols   –  USB,  Micro  USB,  Ethernet  •  Wireless  charging  (soon)   17  
  • 18. Lots  of  new  touch  screens   18  
  • 19. New  emerging  players  •  Hardware  is  changing:   –  Many  new  entrants  designing   to  sojware  “standards”   –  Korea:   •  Samsung   •  LG   –  New  breed  of  Chinese  players   •  Huawei   •  HTC   •  HTC   •  Quanta   •  TCL/Alcatel     19  
  • 20. Constant  Hardware  InnovaAon   iDon’t  Droid  is  a  3-­‐way  effort  between  Motorola,  Verizon  and  Google.  Slide  out  physical  keyboard    Verizon  (over  AT&T)  network   20  
  • 21. Ba@le  of  the  OperaAng  Systems   21  
  • 22. OperaAng  Systems  Opera&ng  System   Developer   Source  Availability  MENS     Proprietary  to  each   None  (although  some  code  (Motorola,  Erisson,  Nokia,   company   base  provided  to  Symbian)  Siemens)  Symbian   Symbian  FoundaAon     Closed  -­‐>  Open  Source   (9  companies)  Windows  CE   Microsoj   Closed  with  API  license   model  BlackBerry  OS   RIM   Closed  with  limited  licenses  Apple  OS   Apple   Closed  Android   Google   Open  Source  WebOS   Palm   Available  under  license   22  
  • 23. Basic  OS  comparison   Source:  engadget.com   23  
  • 24. Windows  Mobile  •  Spinoff  from  Windows  CE   –  Designed  to  bring  the  “Windows   Experience”  to  other  devices   –  OS  intended  to  dominate  consumer   electronics  across  sectors   –  Mobile,  Home  entertainment,  TV  and   Auto  •  Licensed  to  handset  manufacturers  •  C#,  C++,  CF  2.0/3.0,  SQL  CE,  etc.  •  Slow  adopAon  by  third-­‐party   developers   –  Dominated  PC  Apps   –  Complacent  working  with  3rd  parAes   24  
  • 25. RIM  BlackBerry  •  Based  on  strong  legacy  of  original   BlackBerry  •  Strength  is  on  server-­‐side   integraAon   –  Exchange  Server   –  Professional  Apps  and  Services  •  OS  used  on  their  own  hardware  as   well  as  licensees:   –  AT&T,  HTC,  Motorola,  Nokia,  Qtek,   Samsung,  Siemens  and  Sony   Ericsson  •  MDS  development  environment   end  of  life   –  Apps  through  Java  via  Eclipse   –  Microsoj  Visual  Studio  •  Apps  sold  through  BB  Apps  store  as   well  as  mulAple  third  parAes   25  
  • 26. Symbian  •  Symbian  on  50%  of  current   Smartphones  •  Symbian  FoundaAon  (2008)  is  Nokia,   Sony  Ericsson,  NTT  DoCoMo,  TI,   Vodaphone,  ST  Ericsson  and  AT&T  •  Legacy  tools  plus  C++  and  Java  SDKs  •  3rd  party  developers  only  now  being   courted   –  Sony  Ericsson  store   –  Ovi  Store  •  Follows  open  source  model  and  will   have  Eclipse-­‐type  license  in  2010   26  
  • 27. Apple  iPhone  OS  •  Based  on  Mac  OSX  (Linux)   –  Released  v3.1     –  Tight  integraAon  with  iTunes  (Win/Mac)  •  Strong  SDK  for  third  parAes   –  First  to  fully  release  hardware  funcAon  to   developers  •  Almost  all  “lags”  are  gone   –  MMS,  cut  &  paste   –  Needs  be@er  Outlook  integraAon  •  NaAve:  “Extensible  C ”,  strong  SDK  for  non-­‐ programmers  •  100,000  applicaAons   –  20%  games   –  New  “virtual  goods”  market   –  Apps  sold  through  Apps  Store  as  well  as   aggregators   27  
  • 28. Google  Android  •  In  2005,  Google  acquired   Android,  a  small  startup   based  in  Palo  Alto  •  In  November  2007  Google   announced  the  Android   plaxorm   –  Open  Handset  Alliance,  now   at  30+  members   –  Open  source  plaxorm  licensed   free  of  charge  to  handset   manufacturers   –  Java-­‐based  for  rapid  app   development  and  deployment   28  
  • 29. Open  Handset  Alliance  •  Companies  working  together  to  come   together  to  accelerate  innova4on  in   mobile  and  offer  consumers  a  richer,  less   expensive,  and  be;er  mobile  experience   –  10  Mobile  Operators   –  11  Handset  Companies   –  14  Semiconductor  Companies   –  11  Sojware  Companies   –  6    “CommercializaAon”  Companies  •  Will  own  the  Android  source  and  make   public  under  Apache  v2  license   29  
  • 30. App  development  for  phones   30  
  • 31. Coding  Mobile  Apps  •  Simple  downloads  and  SMS  •  Web  Apps  (in  the  browser)   –  Mobile  web  users  surpassed  PC  users  in  2008   –  WAP   –  Java  and  Flash  •  NaAve  Apps   31  
  • 32. Issues  moving  web  apps  to  phone  •  Small  screen  •  Context  switching:  lack  of  windows  •  NavigaAon  and  filling  in  forms  •  Memory:  Lack  of  JavaScript  and  cookies  •  Accessibility  for  secure  communicaAons,  flash,   pdf,  video…  •  Variable  Speed  and  response  Ames  •  Web-­‐based  apps  may  lack  access  to  hardware   resources   32  
  • 33. Third-­‐party  development   33  
  • 34. ApplicaAon  distribuAon   34  
  • 35. Early  2000  Mobile  Value  Chain   Device   ApplicaAon   Sales   Carrier   Customer   Vendor   Provider   Channel   Carrier-­‐centric:    All  about  gezng  the  deal  with  the  carrier   35  
  • 36. Carriers  as  “new  media”  •  Carriers  were  looking  to:   –  Be  media  companies   –  Control  content  distribuAon   –  Get  closer  (in  some  cases  own)  content  creaAon  •  Ringtone  Business   –  Juniper  esAmates  $3.2B  ww  in  2003,  10%  of  all  ww   music  sales   –  By  2008,  declined  to  $1B  ww  •  Gaming  Market   –  Est  $6B  in  2007   –  90%  on-­‐deck,  10%  off-­‐deck  and  adverAsing   36  
  • 37. 37  
  • 38. On-­‐deck  vs.  Off-­‐deck  •  On-­‐deck:       –  Phones  shipped  with  applicaAons  pre-­‐loaded   –  Companies  rose  and  fell  with  “carrier  deals”     •  A  deal  with  one  or  two  operators  could  get  you  funded,  go  public,  get   acquired   –  Phone.com,  Infospace,  Jamdat   •  Developers  benefit  from  markeAng  and  promoAon  channels   •  Smaller  profits  but  higher  gain.  •  Off-­‐deck:   –  Carriers  look  to  sell  “add-­‐ons”   –  Advent  of  alternaAve  distribuAon  in  2006/7   •  Mobile  ads  from  Admob,  Nokia,  Google,  Jumptap     •  Appstores  such  as  Getjar.com  or  Handmark.com   –  Open  doors  for  mobile  startups   38  
  • 39. Content  Value  Chain   39  
  • 40. App  Stores   40  
  • 41. Carrier  App  Stores  Online  Today  •  US  Carriers   –  AT&T   –  Verizon   –  T-­‐mobile   –  all  others  •  Canadian  Carriers   –  Bell   –  Rogers   –  Telus   –  Sasktel  •  Japanese  Carriers   –  NTT  DoCoMo   –  KDDI  •  Korean  Carriers   –  SK  Telecom  (T-­‐Store)   –  KT   –  LG  Telecom  •  Chinese  Carriers   –  China  Mobile   –  China  Telecom   –  China  Ubicom  •  Plus  Europe!   41  
  • 42. iTunes:  Apple’s  App  Store   42  
  • 43. App  Store  •  Launched  July  2008  •  Phenomenally   successful   –  Turned  distribuAon   on  it’s  head   –  Put  developers  in   direct  control  •  125,000  in  iPhone   Developer  Program  •  100,000  applicaAons   today,  2B  downloads   43  
  • 44. Apps  by  Category   44  
  • 45. Loyalty  and  Churn   45  
  • 46. 3rd  party  App  Stores  Online  Today  •  Phone  Manufacturers   –  Apple  App  Store   –  RIM:  BlackBerry  App  World   –  Nokia  Ovi  Store   –  Palm  and  Web  OS   –  Samsung  ApplicaAon  Store  (UK,  France,  Italy  only)  •  OperaAng  Systems   –  Symbian:  Symbian  Gear   –  Window  Mobile  (Pocket  PC  vs.  SmartPhone  Apps)   –  Google  Android   •  Android  Game  Pro  (games  only)   •  Androlib  (10K  apps)  •  Third  Party  App  Stores   –  Handango  (Windows  and  BB)   –  MobiHand  (Windows  and  BB)   –  Pocketland  (Windows  only)  •  3rd  party  aggregators   –  AppMiner   –  Appstore  HQ   –  Appshopper  •  InternaAonal   46  
  • 47. RIM  Blackberry  App  World  •  2,000+  total  apps   –  1000  freeware   –  ASP  $5  to  $10  •  Slow  to  market   –  IniAally  announced  in  Nov  2008   –  Live  on  phones  April  09   •  Requires  separate  download   –  Web  catalog  online  Aug  09   •  No  purchase  opAon  •  Competes  with  third-­‐party   soluAons  from  Handango  and   Mobihand   47  
  • 48. Android  AndroLib.com  •  14,000  games  and   applicaAons  (counts   duplicaAons  across   mulAple  languages)  •  2500  added   monthly  •  Majority  free:  36%   paid  •  Website  features   barcodes  for  phone,   scan  and  buy  from   phone   48  
  • 49. China  App  Stores  •  China  Mobile   –  600M  total  subscribers   –  “Mobile  Market”:    1000  apps  for  Symbian,  Windows  Mobile  and  Android   –  Working  on  new  Open  Mobile  System  (OMS):    Android  plus  proprietary  extensions  •  China  Telecom   –  App  Store  in  development   –  May  distribute  Palm  and  Blackberry  in  future  •  China  Unicom   –  140M  total  subscribers   –  App  Store  in  development   –  Rumored  talks  with  Apple  re:  iPhone  •  Barriers:   –  Billing  issues   –  Availability  of  pirated  applicaAons  online   –  Low  demand   49  
  • 50. Revenue  and  QualificaAon  •  Varies  by  plaxorm:   –  BB  =  Business   –  Apple  =  Consumer   –  Android  =  Hobbyist  -­‐>  Consumer  •  Shared  between  store  and  developer   –  Apple:    30%  to  store,  70%  to  developer  •  QualificaAon  process  can  vary  widely   –  Carriers,  deal  required   –  Apple,  strict  release  policy  with  “gated  qualificaAon”  and  high  barriers   on  content  types   –  Android  “quality  built  into  the  tools”   –  Third  party  stores  vary  but  generally  “Caveat  Emptor”   50  
  • 51. So,  you  want  to  market  your  app?   51  
  • 52. General  App  Types  •  Free   –  Quick  and  dirty,  usually  done  for  fun  or  self-­‐promoAon  •  Short-­‐term  revenue:    i.e.  $0.99   –  Simple  “cute”  apps   –  Simple  handy  apps   –  Short  term  download  “spikes”   –  Supplemented  by  ads/sponsorships  •  Serious  Apps:  $2.99  to  $9.99   –  Includes  professional  and  games   –  Higher  uAlity  (i.e.  social  gaming)   –  Polished  and  have  longevity  “sAckiness”   52  
  • 53. Dynamics  of  Apple’s  “ Top  25”  •  Separate  lists  for  Free  and  Paid  •  A  lisAng  here  gets  huge  response  lij   53  
  • 54. Driving  Short-­‐Term  Revenue   “Top  25”  •  Develop  fast,  release  ojen  •  $0.99  is  right  unless  you  can  jusAfy   otherwise  •  A  nice  icon  and  smooth  descripAon  •  Self-­‐promote:    Twi@er,  Facebook,  etc.  •  Partner  for  success:    Gang  up  with   other  developers  and  co-­‐promote  •  Are  blogs  important?  Opinions  differ   Source:    TechCrunch  8.29.09   54  
  • 55. Emerging  Revenue  Models  •  “Freemium”   –  IniAal  download  is  free   –  Version  may  run  for  limited  Ame  or..   –  Pay  to  upgrade  to  versions  with  more  features  •  “Free  to  Play”       –  Micropayments   –  In-­‐game  transacAons  (open  up  new  stages/worlds)   –  Virtual  goods  (avatars,  weapons,  etc)  •  Increasing  push  toward  adverAsing  and  product  placement   55  
  • 56. Trends  and  Metrics   56  
  • 57. Mobile  Download  Trends  •  More  than  90  percent  of  Android  and  iPhone  OS  users  browse  and   search  for  apps  directly  on  their  mobile  device  instead  of  their   computer  •  Average  downloads:       –  10  per  month  for  Android  and  iPhone   –  18  per  month  for  iPod  touch  iPod  touch  owners  •  Paid  apps   –  Users  who  regularly  download  paid  apps  spend  approximately  $9  on   an  average  of  five  paid  downloads  per  month   –  iPhone  and  iPod  touch  users  are  twice  as  likely  to  purchase  paid  apps   than  Android  users.   –  Upgrading  from  the  lite  version  was  the  top  reason  given  when  users   were  asked  what  drives  them  to  purchase  a  paid  app   57  
  • 58. Average  Downloads/month   58  
  • 59. “Flight  Control”  Story  •  Flight  SimulaAon   program  by  Firemint  •  Hit  #1  in  sales  at  launch   March  28,  2009  •  Took  approx  3  man-­‐ weeks  to  develop  (nights,   weekends)  •  Over  1.5M  sold  at  $0.99  •  Word  of  mouth  and  blog   campaign   59  
  • 60. Daily  Sales:  #1  iPhone  App   60  
  • 61. Sales  per  country   61  
  • 62. Some  hot  new  areas  •  Mobile  dev  tools  •  Mobile  metrics  and  moneAzaAon  •  Mass-­‐publishing     –  Huge  “app  shops”   –  Aggregators  pushing  numbers  to  gain  top  25  •  Cross  plaxorm   –  AutomoAve  app  stores?   –  Ford  has  Microsoj  Sync   –  Google  flirAng  with  BMW   62  
  • 63. Where  to  go  for  more  info…  •  General  Blogs:   –  www.mobilecrunch.com   –  www.venturebeat.com  •  Vendor-­‐specific  Blogs   –  googlemobile.blogspot.com   –  androinica.com   –  theiphoneblog.com  •  New  Media  BC  •  Wavefront  Accelerators  •  Wireless  CommunicaAons  Alliance:  wca.org   63  
  • 64. Thanks  for  your  a@enAon   rick.rasmussen@internaAonal.gc.ca   64