1. Project of energy conservation indicators in the
countries of southern shore of the Mediterranean
Kick-off Workshop,
Tunis, January 6-7, 2011
by El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI
Programme Officer- Energy,
Plan Bleu

2. Projet étude de construction d’un ensemble
d’indicateurs de maîtrise de l’énergie dans les
pays de la rive Sud & Est de la Méditerranée
Kick-off Meeting,
Atelier, Tunis, 6-7 Janvier 2011
Par El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI
Plan Bleu

3. Plan of the presentation
Energy context in the SEMCs
Objectifves and expected results of the study
Steps of the study
Organisation of the study
Contexte énergétique dans les PSME
Objectifs et résultats attendus de l’étude
Etapes de l’étude
Organisation de l’étude

4. Demography and Economy in the SEMCs
Population growth
2.2%/y between
1971 & 2008.
(from 125 to 282
millions in 2008
in the SEMCs)
GDP growth
4%/year between
1971 & 2007.
(from $440b to
$1954b in 2007
in the SEMCs)

5. Energy intensity in 2006 ( toe per GDP unit - Millions of euros 2005 ppp
Source : WDI, IEA, Plan Bleu computation

6. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Total Final Enegy
Consumption cin
the SEMCs :
- by Sector
- by Source

7. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs
CO2 Emissions by Sector in the SEMCs

8. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Sustained growth in demand in SEMCs
 Electricity: nearly 4% per year between 2007 and 2030
 Primary Energy Demand: 3% per year
SEMCs Energy Demand (Mtoe ) % annual growth
Reference Scenario 1970 2007 2030 1970-2007 2007-2030
Primary Energy Demand 44 306 626 5.4% 3.2%
Total Final Cons. (TFC) 35 213 429 5.0% 3.1%
Transport 10 57 95 4.9% 2,.%
Residential 12 53 125 4.1% 3.8%
Industry 9 67 137 5.6% 3.1%
Other cons. 4 34 73 6.1% 3.4%
Power Production (TWh) 32 534 1302 7.9% 3.9%
CO2 Emissions (Mt) 65 775 1535 6.9% 3.0%

9. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Increased energy
dependency
79%
70%

10. Needs for energy efficiency policies
Need to put in place accelerated
energy efficiency policies
Need for methodologies and
tools for monitoring and
evaluation of energy demand
side management policies.
About 90 Mtoe

11. Objectives and expected results of the study
Strengthening the capacity of SEMCs in monitoring their
energy policies by using the indicator approach to
energy management.
Construct and interpret a set of relevant indicators of
energy conservation in the SEMCs.
Construct and interpret a set of energy conservation
socio- economic impact indicators.
Target countries
 Algeria Preparation of a background
 Egypt paper presenting an
 Jordan aggregated analysis of
indicators at the region
 Lebanon
level and a comparative
 Libya
analysis between the
 Morocco concerned countries.
 Palestine
 Syria
Tunisia

12. Overview on indicator approach: Why we need indicators?
Definition and monitoring of the targets set at the
national and international levels of energy
efficiency and CO2 abatement programs.
Evaluation of the energy efficiency programs that
have been implemented.
Planning tool of future actions, including R&D
programs.
Feeding the energy demand forecasting models
and improving the quality of forecasts.
Enable cross-country comparisons& benchmarking

13. Overview on indicator approach: Categories of indicators?
Descriptive indicators
 Energy intensity at macro level, by energy
 Energy intensity at sector level
 Specific consumption in branches
 Unit consumption, etc.
Explicative indicators
 Indicators at constant structure
 Indicators with climate corrections
 Indicators at Parity of Power Purchase
 Quantity effects
 Consumption unit effect
 Energy saving
 Energy efficiency index
Socio-impact indicators

14. Steps of the study
Preparation phase
 Choice of indicators in a participating approach
 Preparation of the data needed
 Preparation of the tool for calculating indicators
 Recruiting experts countries
Organization of workshops with national experts :
Workshops of 2 to 3 days.
Data collection and preparation of country reports
Project coordination and assistance to national
experts
Organizing workshop to discuss applications & work
of national experts
Preparation of final report
Organization of a final workshop
Dissemination and exploitation of results.

15. Study Organisation
Organization of implementation
 A general coordinator of the mission
 Partnership with RCREEE,
 10 national experts
 Transfer the experience of Tunisia to other countries
(methodology, tools, expertise)
 Integration of data and results to Plan Bleu database,
opened to the all users
Planning of the study
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15
Etape 1: Préparation
Etape 2: Atelier de travail avec les experts
Etape 3: Collectes des données et élaboration des rapports pays
Etape 4: Coordination et assistance aux consultants
Etape 5: Atelier de restitution des travaux des consultants
Etape 6 : Elaboration du rapport
Etape 7 : Atelier final
Duration of the study : 15 months

16. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For more information
www.planbleu.org
OR
www.rcreee.org
Contacts :
ehelandaloussi @planbleu.org
alcor@planet.tn
amel.bida@rcreee.org
16

17. Electricity in the Med
Electricity in the
Mediterranean

18. MEDITERRANEAN : Evolution of the parameters (1970=index 100)
4000
PSEM : Evolution des paramètres (1970=index 100)
3500
Energie Electricité
3000
2500 Electricité
2000
Strong growth on the
PNB
energy & electricity
1500
Pop
Energie
consumptions in the
1000 Mediterranean
PNB
500
Pop
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
800
Méditérranée : Evolution des paramètres (1970=index 100)
Electricité
Energie
600
Electricité
PNB
PNB
400
Energie
Pop
Pop
200
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
20
20

19. Energy & Electricity Potential Savings in the Med, by 2025-2030
Potentiel des économies
d’énergie en
Méditerranée,
si fortes politiques EE.
Potential of Energy &
Electricity savings in the
Mediterranean,
if efforts in the EE policies.
Nécessité de maître en
place des politiques
accélérées de maîtrise de
l’énergie
Besoins de
méthodologies et d’outils
de suivi et évaluation des
politiques de ME

20. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Increased energy
dependency
79%
70%

21. Energy economies potential, 1980-2005 (nanojoules)
Potential energy
savings in the
SEMCs, if efforts
in EE policies.

22. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs
CO2 Emissions
in the SEMCs.

23. Publication of a report on Energy Outlook 2025 in the Mediterranean
Source : Report available online, www.planbleu.org
’Infrastructures et Développement Energétique en Méditerranée : Perspectives 2025’,’ Les Cahiers du Plan Bleu 6, 2009.
‘’Infrastructures and Sustainable Energy Development in the Mediterranean: Outlook 2025’’, Blue Plan Papers 6, 2009.