Attend this webinar to hear Texas energy expert and Principal Solar, Inc. board member Ron Seidel provide an overview of recent EPA regulations affecting coal plants and how this could enhance solar energy development in Texas. Ron will also provide expert insights into what is happening in the Texas electricity market today.Take advantage of this opportunity to find out how these changes might affect YOUR business by joining the LIVE webinar and participating in the live Question & Answer session following Ron's presentation.
Topic 9- General Principles of International Law.pptx
Solar to Play Significant Role as Coal Declines in ERCOT
1. Principal Solar Institute
As Coal Dims, Will Solar Shine?
Perspective on a Changing Electricity
Industry
Ron Seidel
Director, Principal Solar
Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private
equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues
primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas
Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public
Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior
vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy
Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.
2. Agenda
If we are the Saudi Arabia of coal, why are
the prospects for coal declining?
– New EPA environmental regulations
– Retirement of coal plants
What fuel sources will replace coal power?
Will solar power play a significant role?
What happened to the capacity shortage
situation in ERCOT?
The solar potential in ERCOT
3. EPA Emissions Regulations
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
Mercury and Air Toxics Rule (MATS)
Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants
Carbon Pollution Standard for Existing Power
Plants
4. Clean Air Interstate Rule
(CAIR)
Effective in 2005, under the Clean Air Act of 1970
Addresses power plant pollution drift between
states
Includes 27 Eastern States and District of Columbia
Target pollutants
– Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
• Phase I – 50% reduction 2010 to 2014
• Phase II – 65% reduction 2015 and beyond
– Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Phased in caps between 2009 and 2015
Interstate Cap and Trade System for allowances
6. Cross State Air Pollution Rule
(CSAPR)
Replaces CAIR, addresses power plant pollution
drift between states
Limits NOx and SO2 from power plants
Final rule to be effective January 2012
– Five month implementation period
– Revised in late 2011 and twice in early 2012
– Vacated by DC Circuit court in August 2012
– Supreme Court reversed DC Circuit in April 2014
– The DC Circuit has not reinstated CSAPR
CAIR in place until CSAPR reinstated
Between 1,400 and 6,000 MW capacity loss in Texas
estimated when implemented
8. Mercury & Air Toxics Standard
(MATS)
Issued December 2011 (1117pages!)
– Numerous revisions since
Rule finalized in April 2012
Compliance by April 2015
1100 coal and 300 oil fired units affected(>25MW)
Limits on emission rates for:
– Mercury
– Non-mercury metallic toxics (measured as PM)
– Acid gases (measured as HCl or SO2)
Will require SO2 and Mercury removal equipment
9. Carbon Pollution Standard
New Power Plants
Effective January 1, 2015
Proposed CO2 limits:
– Utility boilers (coal, gas, oil) = 1,100 lb CO2/MWh
– Combined cycle units = 1,000 lb CO2/MWh
Typical current CO2 emissions
– Utility coal boilers = 2,000 lb CO2/MWh
– Utility gas boilers = 1,500 lb CO2/MWh
– Combined cycle units = 1,000 lb CO2/MWh
10. Carbon Pollution Standard
Existing Power Plants
Effective June 30, 2016
Objective is to cut U.S. CO2 emissions 30% below
2005 levels by 2030
State flexibility to determine reductions
– Renewables
– Fuel switching
– Demand management
But the EPA has final authority over state plans
Let the litigation begin!
22. New Capacity Needed in ERCOT
Reserve Margin = 13.75%
-380 -215 -44
1,020
2,817
3,870
4,623
5,671
6,716
7,764
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
M
W
Year
Sources: ERCOT / RBS Energy Consulting
23. Utility Scale PV Potential
Rural areas
U.S Total: 152,974 GW 280,613,217 GWhrs 3,186,955 km2
Texas: 20,411 GW 38,993,582 GWhrs 425,230 km2 (61%)
Source: NREL
24. Achievable Solar PV Energy
in Texas
Reference: ERCOT Peak Load ~68 GW
Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)
Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)
Achieving just 1% of this capability would
produce over 200 GW or almost three times
the current ERCOT maximum load.
Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
25. Questions and Discussion
Please enter your questions into the Chat window
Ron Seidel
Director, Principal Solar