Wikibon is a different type of analyst firm that uses digital technology to conduct and share research on digital business and IT. Presented by Peter Burris and Dave Vellante, here are our 2017 predictions.
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Peter Burris
Chief Research Officer
DavidVellante
C0-CEO
4. Theme: Put More DataTo Work
Data Work
• Customer data
• Operational data
• Financial data
• Any data
• Superior engagement
• Customer experience
• Agile operations
• Automation
5. Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions
-What’s driving system
architecture?
- Do µCPU options matter?
-Whither HDDs?
- Code in the cloud?
- Amazon momentum?
- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions
- New IT mandate?
- IoT + AR = ?
- Is this all there is to digital
engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction
-Will we all work for AI?
6. Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions
-What’s driving tech
architecture?
- Do µCPU options matter?
-Whither HDDs?
- Code in the cloud?
- Amazon momentum?
- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions
- New IT mandate?
- IoT + AR = ?
- Is this all there is to digital
engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction
-Will we all work for AI?
7. What’s DrivingTech Architecture?
Wikibon 2017 Prediction
• IoT edge use cases begin shaping
decisions in system and application
architecture.
• Cloud moves to the edge.
• Data movement isn’t free
• Distributed, autonomous apps.
• Lots of new OT players impact
decisions.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Cloud-only
Processing and
Dedicated Network
SIM Hardware,
AT&T Cellular
Network, and Cloud
Processing
Edge, Cloud
Processing, and
Dedicated Network
IoT Edge Options, 3-year Costs
Onsite Equipment Costs AWS Cloud Costs
Edge Data Transmission Costs
Source:Wikibon, “TheVital Role of Edge Computing for IoT: 2016 Update, 11/8/2016
8. Do µCPU options matter?
Wikibon 2017 Prediction
• Evolution in workloads creates an
opening for new µCPU
technologies, which grab 2-3
points of x86 server market share.
• Volume ARM-based servers
• GPUs for big data apps
• Still room for RISC in pre-
packaged HCI solutions
DeviceServed
DataVolumes
LegacySoftware
ConsumerEconomics
Factors Driving ServerTechnologies
Moore’sLaw
9. Whither HDDs?
Wikibon 2017 prediction:
• Anything in a data center that
physically moves gets less
useful and loses share of wallet.
• Flash-only data center on
the horizon
• Cost avoidance and superior
business value.
• Applies to labor, too. $-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Worldwide Enterprise HDD & SDD Storage
System Revenue, 2013-2022 ($Billions)
Enterprise Storage System Flash Revenue
Enterprise Storage System HDD-based Revenue
$35.6
$46.9
HDD-based Enterprise
Storage System Revenue
Flash-based Enterprise
Storage System Revenue
10. Code in the Cloud?
Wikibon 2017 Prediction
• The new cloud development
stack, centering on containers
and APIs, matures rapidly, but
institutional habits in
development constrain change.
• 80% of in-house development
set up work “the old way.”
• Big data will contravene habits.
• Time-to-value metrics will be
key.
11. Amazon Momentum?
Wikibon 2017 Prediction
• Amazon has another banner
year, but customers start
demanding a “simplicity
reset.”
• Flexibility spawns
complexity for all.
• Tools for managingAWS
billing hitting the market.
• Add hybrid cloud and
complexity multiplies.
12. Big Data Complexity?
Wikibon 2017 Prediction
• Failure rates for big data pilots
drop by 50% as big vendors – IBM,
MSFT, AWS, and Google – bring
pre-packaged, problem-based,
analytic pipelines to market.
• Time-to-value becomes focus.
• Big data app patterns start to
solidify.
• Machine learning, cognitive,AI –
all part of the use-case-to-app
trend.
13. Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions
-What’s driving tech
architecture?
- Do µCPU options matter?
-Whither HDDs?
- Code in the cloud?
- Amazon momentum?
- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions
- New IT mandate?
- IoT + AR = ?
- Is this all there is to digital
engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction
-Will we all work for AI?
14. New IT Mandate?
2022 Wikibon prediction
• IT organizations organize work to
generate greater value from data
assets by engineering “proximity”
of applications and data.
• Data value becomes a hot topic
• Catalyzes true private cloud
solutions for legacy applications
• “Strategic sourcing” becomes a
reality
Systems of
Record
Big
Analytics
IoT
15. IoT + AR = ?
Wikibon 2022 Prediction
• Augmented reality emerges as a
crucial “actuator” for the internet
of things – and people (IoT&P).
• Businesses still serve customers
• Systems of “enaction” generate
real-world outcomes from analytic
models and insights
• Innovation flows from social
discovery, too
Internet ofThings
and People
Big Data
Systems of
“Enaction”
Digital Business Management
Digital Business Platform
16. IsThis AllThere IsTo Digital Engagement?
Wikibon 2022 Prediction
• IT is given greater responsibility for
management of demand chains,
working to unify customer journey
designs and operations across all
engagement functions.
• Data transforms products into
services
• Mobile apps too focused on
solving seller’s problem.
• Collaboration makes a comeback
– to serve customers
UseFixProblem
Solution
Operation
The Marriage
The
Customer
Journey
17. Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions
-What’s driving tech
architecture?
- Do µCPU options matter?
-Whither HDDs?
- Code in the cloud?
- Amazon momentum?
- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions
- New IT mandate?
- IoT + AR = ?
- Is this all there is to digital
engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction
-Will we all work for AI?
18. WillWe AllWork For AI?
Wikibon 2027 Prediction
• AI technology advances far
outpace social advances: Some
tasks will be totally replaced, but
most jobs will be partially replaced.
• Social friction (e.g., loss
avoidance) gates AI technology
adoption
• AI will tend to complement, not
substitute, for labor.
• New design consideration:
“Should we do it?”
Source: http://i.imgur.com/V34vlg0.jpg
19. Conclusions
2017 – 6 predictions
- Tech architecture? Edge
IoT
- µCPU options? Yes
- Whither HDDs? Flash
- Code in the cloud? Yes,
but …
- Amazon momentum? Yes
- Big data complexity? Bad
2022 – 3 predictions
- New IT mandate? Drive
value of data
- IoT + AR = IoT&P
- Is this all there is to digital
engagement? Demand
chain management
2027 – 1 prediction
-Will we all work for AI? Not
by 2027
