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Sustain Blaine October 2008 Progress Report

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The City of Sun Valley is participating in a regional economic development effort called "Sustain Blaine." This is the October 2008 progress report.

The City of Sun Valley is participating in a regional economic development effort called "Sustain Blaine." This is the October 2008 progress report.

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Sustain Blaine October 2008 Progress Report Sustain Blaine October 2008 Progress Report Presentation Transcript

  • AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY FOR BLAINE COUNTY PROGRESS REPORT October 2008 TIP Strategies Alan Cox Meredith Whitten
  • TIP | agenda • About us • About the process • Our framework • Data findings • SWOT • Discussion
  • TIP | about us
  • TIP | what we do TIP STRATEGIES INC is an economic development consulting firm based in Austin, Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic planning with special emphasis in these areas: Economic assessment & trend analysis Benchmarking & measurement Target industry & cluster analysis Location & land-use analysis Fiscal impact analysis
  • TIP Projects
  • TIP | about the process
  • Project timeline AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB Data analysis, field work, site visits DISCOVERY Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed OPPORTUNITY We are here Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc. IMPLEMENTATION Roll-out FINAL
  • Activities to date • Data collection – Demographics – Migration – Housing & income – Traffic & commuting – Economy & tax base – Workforce – Benchmarks • Interviews/focus group meetings
  • TIP | interviews & focus groups August: September: October: • City reps (Bellevue, • Rocky Mt. Hardware • Housing groups Carey, Hailey, • Power Engineers • Land trusts Ketchum, Sun Valley) • Young professionals • Youth group • School district • Sun Valley Co. • 1 county commissioner • 2 county • Scott USA commissioners • Tourism representatives • St. Luke’s hospital • WREP • Sun Valley/Ketchum • Smith Optics Chamber • Hailey Chamber • Realtors • Sun Valley biz owners • Workforce commission and homeowners • 2 community-wide • Entrepreneurs forums • Agriculture
  • TIP | next visit • Upcoming communitywide workshop: – Charette format with break-out groups – Establish vision – Identify opportunities – Form task forces • November 18
  • TIP | our framework
  • TIP | definition economic development (n) 1) the application of public resources to stimulate private investment
  • EC DEV | evolution of goals talent / innovation / place 2010 knowledge 2000 evo higher wages 1990 lut iona more jobs 1980 ry s cale buildings 1970
  • TIP | a new framework Industry The traditional ED model focuses on place-based industrial recruitment and job creation as a means to stimulate economic growth. Sites Jobs Innovation & Capital Our model focuses on the factors that play essential roles in stimulating economic vitality in a community. Quality of Talent Place
  • TIP defined TALENT • Individuals that posses the skills and values to make organizations more effective INNOVATION • The sectors and entities that leverage technology and advanced processes for design, manufacturing and services. PLACE • Viewing the assets of your community through the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and retain.
  • BLAINE CO. | data findings
  • BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030 1980 2030 ● Comparing Blaine 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% County's age distribution in 1980 to the projected Age 0 to 4 8% 6% distribution in 2030 shows Age 5 to 9 7% 5% how the population is evolving. Our Age 10 to 14 7% 6% perspective in 2008 is Age 15 to 19 7% 6% near the mid-point of this 50-year period of change. Age 20 to 24 11% 4% Age 25 to 29 14% 4% ● The long-term changes Age 30 to 34 13% 6% are stark. All age cohorts over 40 rise as a share of Age 35 to 39 8% 8% the population while all Age 40 to 44 5% 8% age chorts under 35 decline. The long-term Age 45 to 49 4% 9% decline among young Age 50 to 54 4% 9% adults in their 20s and early 30s is particularly Age 55 to 59 3% 8% notable. Age 60 to 64 3% 7% Age 65 and greater 6% 16% SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
  • NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE In-State Out-of-State Foreign +250 +250 +250 +200 +200 +200 +150 +150 +150 +100 +100 +100 Net Inflow +50 +50 +50 +0 +0 +0 Net Outflow −50 −50 −50 −100 −100 −100 −150 −150 −150 −200 −200 −200 −250 −250 −250 1997 2007 1997 2007 1997 2007 SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● By digging deeper into the IRS data, we learn even more about ● The net migration patterns within Blaine County's migration patterns. Idaho tend to be consistently net Even though total net domestic outflows to other counties. migration flucturates back and forth Meanwhile, the net patterns with from year to year, the net totals are other states tend to be steady net much more consistent when inflows of new residents. separated into in-state and out-of- state of flows.
  • TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY Ada County, ID Twin Falls County, ID Lincoln County, ID +50 +50 +50 +25 Net Inflow +0 +0 +0 Net Outflow −25 −50 −50 −50 −75 −100 −100 −100 −125 −150 −150 −150 1990 2007 1990 2007 1990 2007 NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998 SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● Blaine County has significant annual migration flow patterns with Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln counties in Idaho. In most years, the balance is a net outflow from Blaine to these three counties. The outflows to Ada County are particularly notable.
  • BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK 15,000 14,000 Number of permanent households 13,000 Number of housing units 12,000 11,000 ● Blaine County adds new housing units faster 10,000 than it adds new 9,000 households. This makes sense in a resort area. A 8,000 large portion of new 7,000 housing units would logically represent second 6,000 homes rather than primary 5,000 residences. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
  • BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family Home ● Comparing averages and medians can be dangerous, especially in thinly populated Average Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home areas with skewed incomes. With that caveat, however, such a comparison can $1,000,000 still be a useful rule-of-thumb when $900,000 considering the median sale price of an existing single-family home to actual local $800,000 construction costs for a new single-family home. $700,000 $600,000 ● In many areas of the country where housing prices in recent years spun out of $500,000 control, this type of sales price-to- construction cost comparison shows that $400,000 median sale prices far exceed average construction values, thus indicating a $300,000 potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we $200,000 see the opposite. Recent construction costs have escalated well beyond median $100,000 sales prices for existing single-family units. This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of $0 new full and part-time residents who will 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 occupy the newly constructed units. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics
  • BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS 16,000 ● Comparing employment data from two separate collection processes can 15,000 be problematic. However, in a place like 14,000 Blaine County, it is important to 13,000 understand the distinct differences between what labor economists call 12,000 quot;household employmentquot; and 11,000 quot;establishment employmentquot;. This 10,000 means counting jobs either by where people live or by where they work. 9,000 8,000 ● By comparing the BEA's 7,000 establishement-based wage and salary employment series to the BLS's 6,000 household survey, we see a growing 5,000 discrepancy. The number of jobs in 4,000 Blaine County is greater than the Blaine County Jobs number of employed residents and the 3,000 gap appears to be widening over time. Employed Blaine County Residents 2,000 This underscores data in previous charts that showed a growing net 1,000 volume of inbound commuters into the 0 county. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics
  • BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES Industry 2006 Employment Construction 3,506 Accommodation & food services 2,813 Retail trade 2,254 Real estate 2,238 Professional & technical services 1,695 ● Blaine County's industry employment Personal & other services 1,587 reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing Administrative & waste services 1,478 county with a tourism based economy. Local government 1,215 Health care & social assistance 848 ● High employment totals for Arts, entertainment, & recreation 803 construction and real estate indicate fast Finance & insurance 793 growth. In a less dynamic county, these Manufacturing 572 job totals would be lower. Information 434 ● Abundant numbers of jobs in Wholesale trade 362 accomodation and food services, retail Farm 323 trade, and personal services underscore Educational services 283 the importance of tourism to the county. Transportation & warehousing 239 Forestry & fishing 123 Federal government (civilian) 118 Mining 101 Federal government (military) 84 Corporate & regional headquarters 49 State government 40 Utilities 18 Total 21,976 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
  • BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES above average (>1.25) average (0.75 to 1.25) below average (<0.75) Industry 2001-2006 Net Chg. 2006 Location Quotient Real estate +610 2.36 Construction +482 2.46 Retail trade +313 0.95 Personal & other services +296 1.27 Local government +245 0.70 Administrative & waste services +225 1.12 Professional & technical services +222 1.18 Finance & insurance +218 0.76 Arts, entertainment, & recreation +206 1.80 Accommodation & food services +192 1.91 Information +143 0.98 Educational services +94 0.62 Manufacturing +86 0.31 Wholesale trade +49 0.45 Federal government (civilian) +16 0.34 Health care & social assistance +12 0.39 Corporate & regional headquarters +9 0.21 Federal government (military) +5 0.33 Transportation & warehousing +5 0.34 Utilities +4 0.26 Forestry & fishing +2 0.98 State government -2 0.06 Farm -9 0.91 Mining -35 0.92 Total +3,388 1.00 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
  • SWOT | Initial thoughts
  • BLAINE Co. | weaknesses TALENT ORGANIZATION • Difficulty in recruiting & • No cohesive economic retaining workers development efforts (no • Limited higher education dedicated organization) INNOVATION • Lack of countywide • Lack of diversity in consensus economy PLACE • Cost of living • Limited developable land • Accessibility/isolation
  • BLAINE Co. | threats SHORT-TERM • National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.) • Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling) • Continued loss of employers & young workers LONG-TERM • Aging population (workforce & tourists) • Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters & visitors) • Rental rates burdening local businesses • Increase in traffic
  • BLAINE Co. | strengths TALENT • Educated/skilled workforce • Entrepreneurial culture • Public schools above state avg. INNOVATION • Healthcare/hospital • Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain) PLACE • Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities • Other amenities (cultural, local retail) • Established destination/national name recognition
  • BLAINE Co. | opportunities SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM • Countywide economic • Airport relocation development program • Redevelopment of airport site • BRE program • Other site-specific • Talent retention & (redevelopment & greenfield) recruitment campaign • International investment • Strengthening • Higher education? entrepreneurial efforts • Cluster development: • Bus linkage between Blaine – Diversify tourism options & Twin – Green/sustainability – Health/wellness – Research & development
  • Discussion
  • Thank you TIP Strategies, Inc. 7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305 Austin, TX 78731 512.343.9113 tel 512.343.9190 fax www.TIPstrategies.com alan@tipstrategies.com meredith@tipstrategies.com