AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY
FOR BLAINE COUNTY
PROGRESS REPORT
October 2008
TIP Strategies
Alan Cox
Meredith Whitten

TIP | agenda
• About us
• About the process
• Our framework
• Data findings
• SWOT
• Discussion

TIP |
about us

TIP | what we do
TIP STRATEGIES INC is an economic
development consulting firm based in Austin,
Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic
planning with special emphasis in these areas:
Economic assessment & trend analysis
Benchmarking & measurement
Target industry & cluster analysis
Location & land-use analysis
Fiscal impact analysis

TIP Projects

TIP |
about the process

Project timeline
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
Data analysis, field work, site visits
DISCOVERY
Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed
OPPORTUNITY We are here
Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc.
IMPLEMENTATION
Roll-out
FINAL

Activities to date
• Data collection
– Demographics
– Migration
– Housing & income
– Traffic & commuting
– Economy & tax base
– Workforce
– Benchmarks
• Interviews/focus group meetings

TIP | interviews & focus groups
August: September: October:
• City reps (Bellevue, • Rocky Mt. Hardware • Housing groups
Carey, Hailey, • Power Engineers • Land trusts
Ketchum, Sun Valley) • Young professionals • Youth group
• School district • Sun Valley Co. • 1 county commissioner
• 2 county • Scott USA
commissioners • Tourism representatives
• St. Luke’s hospital • WREP • Sun Valley/Ketchum
• Smith Optics Chamber
• Hailey Chamber
• Realtors • Sun Valley biz owners
• Workforce commission and homeowners
• 2 community-wide • Entrepreneurs
forums • Agriculture

TIP | next visit
• Upcoming communitywide workshop:
– Charette format with break-out groups
– Establish vision
– Identify opportunities
– Form task forces
• November 18

TIP |
our framework

TIP | definition
economic development (n)
1) the application of public resources
to stimulate private investment

EC DEV | evolution of goals
talent / innovation / place 2010
knowledge 2000
evo
higher wages 1990
lut
iona
more jobs 1980
ry s
cale
buildings 1970

TIP | a new framework
Industry The traditional ED model
focuses on place-based
industrial recruitment and job
creation as a means to
stimulate economic growth.
Sites Jobs
Innovation
& Capital
Our model focuses on the
factors that play essential
roles in stimulating
economic vitality in a
community.
Quality of Talent
Place

TIP defined
TALENT
• Individuals that posses the skills and values to
make organizations more effective
INNOVATION
• The sectors and entities that leverage
technology and advanced processes for design,
manufacturing and services.
PLACE
• Viewing the assets of your community through
the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and
retain.

BLAINE CO. |
data findings

BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030
1980 2030
● Comparing Blaine
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
County's age distribution
in 1980 to the projected
Age 0 to 4 8% 6%
distribution in 2030 shows
Age 5 to 9 7% 5% how the population is
evolving. Our
Age 10 to 14 7% 6%
perspective in 2008 is
Age 15 to 19 7% 6% near the mid-point of this
50-year period of change.
Age 20 to 24 11% 4%
Age 25 to 29 14% 4% ● The long-term changes
Age 30 to 34 13% 6% are stark. All age cohorts
over 40 rise as a share of
Age 35 to 39 8% 8% the population while all
Age 40 to 44 5% 8% age chorts under 35
decline. The long-term
Age 45 to 49 4% 9% decline among young
Age 50 to 54 4% 9% adults in their 20s and
early 30s is particularly
Age 55 to 59 3% 8% notable.
Age 60 to 64 3% 7%
Age 65 and greater 6% 16%
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE
In-State Out-of-State Foreign
+250 +250 +250
+200 +200 +200
+150 +150 +150
+100 +100 +100
Net Inflow +50 +50 +50
+0 +0 +0
Net Outflow −50 −50 −50
−100 −100 −100
−150 −150 −150
−200 −200 −200
−250 −250 −250
1997 2007 1997 2007 1997 2007
SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
● By digging deeper into the IRS
data, we learn even more about ● The net migration patterns within
Blaine County's migration patterns. Idaho tend to be consistently net
Even though total net domestic outflows to other counties.
migration flucturates back and forth Meanwhile, the net patterns with
from year to year, the net totals are other states tend to be steady net
much more consistent when inflows of new residents.
separated into in-state and out-of-
state of flows.

TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY
Ada County, ID Twin Falls County, ID Lincoln County, ID
+50 +50 +50
+25
Net Inflow
+0 +0 +0
Net Outflow
−25
−50 −50 −50
−75
−100 −100 −100
−125
−150 −150 −150
1990 2007 1990 2007 1990 2007
NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998
SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
● Blaine County has significant
annual migration flow patterns with
Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln
counties in Idaho. In most years,
the balance is a net outflow from
Blaine to these three counties. The
outflows to Ada County are
particularly notable.

BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK
15,000
14,000
Number of permanent households
13,000
Number of housing units
12,000
11,000
● Blaine County adds
new housing units faster 10,000
than it adds new
9,000
households. This makes
sense in a resort area. A 8,000
large portion of new
7,000
housing units would
logically represent second 6,000
homes rather than primary
5,000
residences.
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES
Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family Home ● Comparing averages and medians can
be dangerous, especially in thinly populated
Average Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home
areas with skewed incomes. With that
caveat, however, such a comparison can
$1,000,000
still be a useful rule-of-thumb when
$900,000 considering the median sale price of an
existing single-family home to actual local
$800,000 construction costs for a new single-family
home.
$700,000
$600,000 ● In many areas of the country where
housing prices in recent years spun out of
$500,000 control, this type of sales price-to-
construction cost comparison shows that
$400,000 median sale prices far exceed average
construction values, thus indicating a
$300,000
potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we
$200,000 see the opposite. Recent construction
costs have escalated well beyond median
$100,000 sales prices for existing single-family units.
This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of
$0 new full and part-time residents who will
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 occupy the newly constructed units.
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics

BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
16,000 ● Comparing employment data from
two separate collection processes can
15,000
be problematic. However, in a place like
14,000 Blaine County, it is important to
13,000 understand the distinct differences
between what labor economists call
12,000
\"household employment\" and
11,000 \"establishment employment\". This
10,000 means counting jobs either by where
people live or by where they work.
9,000
8,000 ● By comparing the BEA's
7,000 establishement-based wage and salary
employment series to the BLS's
6,000 household survey, we see a growing
5,000 discrepancy. The number of jobs in
4,000 Blaine County is greater than the
Blaine County Jobs number of employed residents and the
3,000 gap appears to be widening over time.
Employed Blaine County Residents
2,000 This underscores data in previous
charts that showed a growing net
1,000
volume of inbound commuters into the
0 county.
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics

BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES
Industry 2006 Employment
Construction 3,506
Accommodation & food services 2,813
Retail trade 2,254
Real estate 2,238
Professional & technical services 1,695
● Blaine County's industry employment
Personal & other services 1,587
reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing
Administrative & waste services 1,478
county with a tourism based economy.
Local government 1,215
Health care & social assistance 848
● High employment totals for
Arts, entertainment, & recreation 803
construction and real estate indicate fast
Finance & insurance 793
growth. In a less dynamic county, these
Manufacturing 572
job totals would be lower.
Information 434
● Abundant numbers of jobs in Wholesale trade 362
accomodation and food services, retail Farm 323
trade, and personal services underscore Educational services 283
the importance of tourism to the county. Transportation & warehousing 239
Forestry & fishing 123
Federal government (civilian) 118
Mining 101
Federal government (military) 84
Corporate & regional headquarters 49
State government 40
Utilities 18
Total 21,976
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES above average (>1.25)
average (0.75 to 1.25)
below average (<0.75)
Industry 2001-2006 Net Chg. 2006 Location Quotient
Real estate +610 2.36
Construction +482 2.46
Retail trade +313 0.95
Personal & other services +296 1.27
Local government +245 0.70
Administrative & waste services +225 1.12
Professional & technical services +222 1.18
Finance & insurance +218 0.76
Arts, entertainment, & recreation +206 1.80
Accommodation & food services +192 1.91
Information +143 0.98
Educational services +94 0.62
Manufacturing +86 0.31
Wholesale trade +49 0.45
Federal government (civilian) +16 0.34
Health care & social assistance +12 0.39
Corporate & regional headquarters +9 0.21
Federal government (military) +5 0.33
Transportation & warehousing +5 0.34
Utilities +4 0.26
Forestry & fishing +2 0.98
State government -2 0.06
Farm -9 0.91
Mining -35 0.92
Total +3,388 1.00
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

SWOT |
Initial thoughts

BLAINE Co. | weaknesses
TALENT ORGANIZATION
• Difficulty in recruiting & • No cohesive economic
retaining workers development efforts (no
• Limited higher education dedicated organization)
INNOVATION • Lack of countywide
• Lack of diversity in consensus
economy
PLACE
• Cost of living
• Limited developable land
• Accessibility/isolation

BLAINE Co. | threats
SHORT-TERM
• National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.)
• Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling)
• Continued loss of employers & young workers
LONG-TERM
• Aging population (workforce & tourists)
• Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters &
visitors)
• Rental rates burdening local businesses
• Increase in traffic

BLAINE Co. | strengths
TALENT
• Educated/skilled workforce
• Entrepreneurial culture
• Public schools above state avg.
INNOVATION
• Healthcare/hospital
• Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain)
PLACE
• Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities
• Other amenities (cultural, local retail)
• Established destination/national name recognition

BLAINE Co. | opportunities
SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM
• Countywide economic • Airport relocation
development program • Redevelopment of airport site
• BRE program • Other site-specific
• Talent retention & (redevelopment & greenfield)
recruitment campaign • International investment
• Strengthening • Higher education?
entrepreneurial efforts • Cluster development:
• Bus linkage between Blaine – Diversify tourism options
& Twin
– Green/sustainability
– Health/wellness
– Research & development

Discussion

Thank you
TIP Strategies, Inc.
7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305
Austin, TX 78731
512.343.9113 tel
512.343.9190 fax
www.TIPstrategies.com
alan@tipstrategies.com
meredith@tipstrategies.com