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Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car?  The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia
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Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car? The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia

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Summer 2011 field research proposal for Albert Ching, research assistant for the Future of Urban Mobility Singapore project

Summer 2011 field research proposal for Albert Ching, research assistant for the Future of Urban Mobility Singapore project

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  • 1. Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car?
    The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia
    In India, cell phones 50x as ubiquitous as cars
    750+ million cell phones (launched in 1995) vs. 13 million cars (launched 1897)
    Albert Ching
    Masters of City Planning Candidate, 2012
    Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore
  • 2. The problem
    Rush hour traffic in Jakarta
  • 3. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(city-scale)
    City expands
    “Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in Asia”(ADB 2009)
    2
    Poor pedestrian
    walkways
    Investment in road infrastructure*
    1
    “The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on non-motorised and public transport. The poor have a more limited range of destinations, being more focused on core destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002)
    Public transport poor
    Gov’t with limited resources
    Low ridership
    Mass transit extremely costly, difficult to implement, and does not reduce congestion
    (Gakenheimer 2011)
    Poor with limited mobility
    Increases congestion
    “Transport-related CO2 emissions expected to increase 57% worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the majority of these will come from private vehicles”(ADB 2009)
    Middle- & upper-class purchase private 2- or 4-wheeler*
    Air pollution
    3
    Unsustainable levels of CO2 + GHGs
  • 4. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(rational consumer)
    Cost per trip
    Quality of mobility(no. of trips,
    accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience,
    productivity)
    Private auto
    1
    Private 2-wheeler
    In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles
    2
    Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective increase in cost per trip
    Para-transit
    Bicycle
    Public transport
    Walk
    -ing
    Bicycle
    Private 2-wheeler
    Private auto
    Personal income
    Auto lock-in*
  • 5. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(aspirational consumer)
  • 6. Most cities in developing Asia still with low per capita incomes and motorization rates
    Sydney / Melbourne ($34K, 630)
    Autos per 1000 people
    2
    Unrestrained motorization
    Globally, there is a strong correlation between income and private motorization rates
    Tokyo*($30K, 275)
    Kuala Lumpur($12K, 270)
    Seoul*($23K, 220)
    Bangkok($7K, ~200)
    Singapore ($43K, 150)
    Restrained motorization
    1
    3
    Low motorization
    Beijing / Shanghai($7K, 80)
    Hong Kong($39K, 80)
    Jakarta($4K, 50)
    Manilla($3K, 30)
    Bangalore($3K, 12)
    Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP)
    Dhaka($1K, 2)
    Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder
    *Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures
    Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)
  • 7. . . . although lock-in may happen at lower motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher densities
    Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20)
    Autos per 1000 people
    Do higher densities limit short-term motorization and/or eventually lead to lower density development?
    Tokyo*(275, 50)
    Kuala Lumpur(240, 8)
    Seoul*(220, 90)
    Bangkok(~200, 65)
    Singapore (150, 93)
    Auto lock-in line
    Beijing / Shanghai (80, 150)
    Hong Kong(80, 70)
    Jakarta(50, 100)
    Manilla(30, 78)
    Bangalore(12, 130)
    Low motorization cities all expected to increase urban populations by 10-90%
    Dhaka(2, 89)
    Urban density(Persons per hectare)
    Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder
    *Motorization 2004 figures
  • 8. Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing, perhaps highest valued-added product in human history
    Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time
    1
    Enables productive use
    of travel time
    3
    Provides real-time travel
    supply information for users
    2
    Provides information on
    new destinations
    4
    Can become a new
    vehicle for travel payments
    5
  • 9. Intelligence infrastructure way ahead of transportation in most developing Asian cities
    3.9x
    4.9x
    4.7x
    35x
    53x
    201x
  • 10. In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is creating new possibilities that may potentially deter private auto ownership
    1
    2
    3
    4
    Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand
    Creates sharing systems for private modes
    Increases the opportunity cost of driving
    Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users
    Intelligence can
    enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics
    Smartphones
    have increased the opportunity cost of driving
    Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community
    (In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand
    Provides economic benefit to drivers
    Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor)
    Mobile food trucks and robust online delivery services have eliminated the need for some trips while destination (e.g. restaurant) reviews help to ensure that trips are of higher quality
    Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years
    Online eco-system in early stages in developing Asia
    What is the magnitude of these impacts relative to other measures e.g. congestion pricing?
  • 11. Even basic mobile phone technology enables more coordinated sharing of transport assets across space and time
    Technologies required for each one of these functions need not be the most sophisticated ones on the market; Basic SMS and call can sometimes perform better than GPS
    Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time
    1
    Tracks and locates travel
    supply information in real-time
    2
    In more dense environments, high demand and high frequency service can relatively efficiently match supply with demand
    Efficiency gains potentially create new business models and alternatives to private auto ownership
    Efficiently matches real-time
    supply and demand
    3
  • 12. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to create sustainable profit from these transport efficiency gains
    Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30%
    Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched January 2011
  • 13. In doing so, entrepreneurs may be offsetting some of the spatial constraints of private auto growth (city-scale)
    Private automobile / moto substitutes (motorised)
    Figures are illustrative
  • 14. . . . creating real mobility alternatives to private auto ownership (rational consumer)
    Quality of mobility(no. of trips,
    accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience,
    productivity)
    2
    Private auto
    Shared private auto and bicycle modes more accessible
    1
    Para-transit more on-demand and potentially integrated with public transit
    Private 2-wheeler
    Para-transit
    Bicycle
    Public transport
    Walk
    -ing
    Private auto-sharing
    Mobile phone
    Bicycle
    Private 2-wheeler
    Private auto
    Personal income
    Pre-auto lock-in*
  • 15. and developing new aspirations for access rather than ownership (aspirational consumer)
    Source: “Tech for Transit: Designing a Future System” by Latitude Research + Next American City
  • 16. Summer 2011 Field Research Proposal
  • 17. 1
    2
    3
    4
    Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand
    Creates sharing systems for private modes
    Increases the opportunity cost of driving
    Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users
    Namma Cycle
    (To be launched Jul 2011)
    Fazilka Eco-Cabs
    Launched Jun 2008
    1
    Go-JEK
    Launched Feb 2011
    To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia?
    Methodology: 2-3 day field visit to 1-2 select cities including general observation, targeted interviews, and background research
    My Teksi
    (To be launched Aug 2011)
  • 18. Are current experiments sustainable and scalable?
    What policies might spark and support these efforts?
    Methodology: 1-3 week field visit and case studies with at least 2 entrepreneurs
    2
  • 19. 3
    Do customers perceive these intelligently enabled transport modes as substitutes for car ownership?
    Methodology: Detail the customer experience. If possible, obtain customer feedback and return rates
  • 20. APPENDIX
  • 21. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to mash-up new intelligence infrastructure with private automobile substitutes
    Fazilka eco-cabs, dial-a-rickshaw service launched in Punjab, India in June 2008 and expanding to larger cities of Amritsar and Chandigarh