Technology Management and Strategy

1. Technology Management and Strategy [Part I]
Thanakrit Lersmethasakul
Lersmethasakul@live.com

2. Technology
Forecasting
Technology
Human Interaction
Technology
Foresight
Technology
Roadmapping
Others
Specific
Initiation
Idea Champion
Common
Development
Champion Team
TRM Operation Team
Integration
TRM Support Team
Techniques
Technology
Intelligence
Implementation
Technology
Assessment
Key Players
Technology
Readiness
Stage of Tools and Objective
Future Studies / Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

3. Technology Readiness
A Critical Technology Element (CTE) is a new or novel technology that a platform or
system depends on to achieve successful development or production or to successfully meet a
system operational threshold requirement. Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) are a method of
estimating technology maturity of CTE of a program during the Acquisition Process. They are
determine during a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) that examines program concepts,
technology requirements, and demonstrated technology capabilities.
Technology Readiness Assessment
-Measure used to assess the maturity of evolving technologies.
-Systematic, metrics-based process that assesses the maturity of,
and the risk associated with, critical technologies to be used in
an organization.
-To increase opportunity in "Commercialized" and reduce
“The Valley of Death.”
Level 1 : Basic principles observed and reported
Level 2 : Concept and/or application formulated
Level 3 : Concept demonstrated analytically or experimentally
Level 4 : Key elements demonstrated in laboratory environments
Level 5 : Key elements demonstrated in relevant environments
Level 6 : Representative of the deliverable demonstrated in relevant environments
Level 7 : Final development version of the deliverable demonstrated in operational
Level 8 : Actual deliverable qualified through test and demonstration
Level 9 : Operational use of deliverable
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level
http://www.nstda.or.th/nstda-km/92-km-knowledge/2770-technology-readiness-levels-

4. Technology Assessment
Thien Tran and Tugru U Diam
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Group of TA
By general approaches
By institutional perspective
Awareness TA, Strategic TA, Constructive TA,
Backcasting
Academic TA, Industrial TA, Parliamentary TA, Executive Power TA, Laboratory TA
Classification of methods and tools
Comprehension toolkit of TA methods and techniques
Economic Analysis
Cost/Benefit Analysis, Cost/Effective Analysis, Life-cycle Cost Assessment (LCA), Return on Investment (ROI), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate on Return (IRR), Break Even Point Analysis, Payback Period analysis, Residual Income, Total Saving, Increasing Returns
analysis, Technology Value Pyramid, Real Options, Technology Balance Sheet
Decision Analysis
Multicriteria Decision Making, MultiAttribute Utility Theory Scoring, Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS), Delphi/Group Delphi, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Q-sort, Decision Trees, Fuzzy Logics
System Engineering/Systems Analysis
Technology System Studies, System Dynamics, Simulation Modeling and Analysis, Interpretive Structural Model (ISM), Bimodal System Dynamic Approach, Project Management Techniques, System Optimization Techniques, Linear Integer and Non-linear programming,
Technology Portfolio Analysis
Technological Forecasting
S-Curve Analysis, Delphi/AHP/Q-Sort, R&D Researcher Hazard Rate Analysis, Trend Extrapolation, Correlation and causal Methods, Probabilistic Methods, Monte Carlo Simulation, Roadmapping
Information Monitoring
Electronics database, Internet, Technical/Scientific Literature Reviews, Patent Searches, IP Asset Valuation
Risk Assessment
Simulation Modeling and Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Environment Health and Safety Studies, Risk-based Decision Trees, Litigation Risk Assessment
Technical Performance Assessment
Statistical Analysis, Bayesian Confidence Profile Analysis, Surveys/Questionnaires, Trial use Periods, Beta Testing, Technology Decomposition Theory, S-Curve Analysis, Human Factor Analysis, Ergonomics studies, Ease-of-Use studies, Outcome Research, Technometrics
Market Analysis
Fusion Method, Market Push/Pull Analysis, Surveys/Questionnaires, S-Curve Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Multigeneration technology diffusion
Externalities/Impact Analysis
Externalities Analysis, Social Impact Analysis, Political Impact Analysis, Environmental Impact Analysis, Ethical Issues Analysis, Cultural Impact Analysis, Integrated Impact Analysis, Life Cycle Analysis
Others
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Strategic Technology Assessment Review (STAR), System Wide Benefits Value Analysis (SWBVA), Scenario-based Assessment Model (SBAM), Internet-Accessible Technology Risk, Assessment
Computer System (ITRACS), Mathematical TA model, Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA)
Expert Judgment Based Decision Tools
Methods Based on Financial Metrics
Comprehensive Models
- From qualitative to quantitative methods
- From sophisticated mathematical models to broad perspective conceptual frameworks

5. Technology Assessment
Thien Tran and Tugru U Diam
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Gap Analysis
Candidate Technologies
Evaluation Criteria and
Methodology
Selected Technologies
Technology Assessment Process

6. Review of Technology Forecasting
Nathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
-
The results of technology forecasting can be used to identify research needs for filling gap between
future requirements and current capabilities.
Use to provide the direction to R&D policy and to assist R&D planning.
Classification of technology forecasting techniques
Based on the approach of forecasting

7. Review of Technology Forecasting
Nathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Classification of technology forecasting techniques
By addressing a list of main factors

8. Review of Technology Forecasting
Nathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Classification of technology forecasting techniques
By addressing a list of main factors

9. Review of Technology Forecasting
Nathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Classification of technology forecasting techniques
By considering the nature of technology and the time horizon of the forecast

10. Technological Forecasting – A Review
Ayse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick
Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Sloan School of Management,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, September 2008.
-
Summarize the field of technological forecasting (TF), its techniques and applications.
Explored that funding allocation decisions are based on “objective, repeatable, and quantifiable”
decision parameters.
MIT/MIST Collaborative research project “Technological Forecasting using Data Mining and
Semantics” (TFDMS)
Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
There are many overlapping forms of forecasting technology developments and their impacts, including
-
Technology monitoring, technology watch, technology alerts (gathering and interpreting information)
Technical intelligence and competitive intelligence (converting that information into usable
intelligence)
Technology forecasting (anticipating the direction and pace of changes)
Technology roadmapping (relating anticipated advances in technologies and products to generate
plans)
Technology assessment, and forms of impact assessment, including strategic environmental
assessment (anticipating the unintended, indirect, and delayed effects of technological changes)
Technology foresight, also national and regional foresight (effecting development strategy, often
involving participatory mechanisms)

11. Technological Forecasting – A Review
Ayse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick
Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Sloan School of Management,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, September 2008.
Purposes
Companies (Competitive Technological Intelligence, CTI)
Prioritize R&D
- Plan new product development
Make strategic decisions on technology licensing, joint ventures, and so forth
Government (Technology Assessment, TA)
Impact of technological change to effecting public policy
Families of Methods
Expert Opinion
Delphi (iterative survey), Focus Groups (panels, workshops), Interviews,
Participatory Techniques
Monitoring and Intelligence Methods
Monitoring (environmental scanning, technology watch), Bibliometrics (research
profiling; patent analysis, text mining)
Modeling and Simulation
Agent Modeling, Cross Impact Analysis, Sustainability Analysis (life cycle
analysis), Causal Models, Diffusion Modeling, Complex Adaptive System
Modeling (CAS)(Chaos), Systems Simulation (System Dynamics, KSIM),
Technological Substitution, Scenario-simulation (gaming; interactive
scenarios), Economic base modeling (input-output analysis), Technology
Assessment
Descriptive and Matrices Methods
Analogies, Backcasting, Checklist for Impact Identification, Innovation System
Modeling, Institutional Analysis, Mitigation Analysis, Morphological Analysis,
Roadmapping (product-technology rodmapping), Social Impact Assessment, Multiple
perspectives assessment, Organizational analysis, Requirements Analysis (needs
analysis)
Trend Analysis
Trend Extrapolation (Growth Curve Fitting), Trend Impact Analysis, Precursor
Analysis, Long Wave Analysis
Statistical Methods
Correlation Analysis, Demographics, Cross Impact Analysis, Risk Analysis, Bibliometrics
Scenarios
Scenarios (scenarios with consistency checks; scenario management), Scenariosimulation (gaming; interactive scenarios), Field Anomaly Relaxation Method
(FAR)
Valuing/Decision/Economics Methods
Relevance Trees (futures wheel), Action (options) Analysis, Cost-benefit
analysis, Decision anaysis (utility analyses), Economic base modeling (inputoutput analysis)
Creativity
Brainstorming (brainwriting; nominal group process (NGP)), Creativity
Workshops (future workshops), TRIZ, Vision Generation, Science Fiction
Analysis

12. RONALD S. VATANANAN and NATHASIT GERDSRI (College of Management, Mahidol University)
International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, Vol. 9, No. 4 (2012)
THE CURRENT STATE OF TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING (TRM) RESEARCH AND PRACTICE
Benefits
Individual - Dialog and communication
- learning and knowledge sharing
Organizational - Integration of processes and policies
- Connect business and technology strategies
- Alignment of resources with market needs
Objectives
Developing a corporate strategy to competitive advantage for sustainable growth and development by predicting changes
Functions and Uses
- Determines the degree of details displayed by a roadmap
- To enhance decision-making
- Provide strategy and direction
- Assist forecasting and foresight
- Support knowledge and innovation management
- Improve planning and coordination
- Enable the integration of internal and external environments
Roadmap Architecture
- The generic format is presented in the form of a time-based diagram
(Components on the vertical axis and the timeframe on the horizontal axis)
- Links and relationships between capabilities and requirements
- Three major layers: Top (Know Why), Middle (Know What) and Bottom (Existing or potential capabilities)
Development and Implementation Approaches
- Fundamental approaches: Workshop oriented export-based approach and
Computer-based approach
- Three stages: Initiation, development and integration
Development and Implementation Tools
- Market Analysis Tools: Experience Curve, Five-Forces, SWOT, STEEP, Concept Visioning, Scenario Building
- Technology Analysis Tools: Bibliometrics, Soft System Methodology (SSM), Database Tomography (DT), Technology
Development Envelope (TDE), Patent Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Morphology Analysis
- Supporting Tools: Quality Function Deployment (QFD), Innovation Matrix, Delphi-Scenario Writing (DSW) Method,
Policy-Simulation Method, Matrix scoring method, Scenario Planning, i-System, Change Management Methods

13. Technology Roadmapping
Nathasit Gerdsri
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
The development of a roadmap can help a company …
- Strengthen its competitiveness landscape by linking its technology strategy into business
strategy.
- Provide a strategic direction to leverage R&D investments as well as to lead the company’s
innovation activities.
- Have the required technologies and infrastructures ready when needed.
Variation od technology roadmaps
- Science/research roadmaps
- Technology roadmaps
- Cross-industry roadmaps
- Product-technology roadmaps
- Industry roadmaps
The step-by-step analysis

14. Technology Roadmapping
Nathasit Gerdsri
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Three stages of TRM implementation

15. Technology Roadmapping
Nathasit Gerdsri
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Key players involving in TRM implementation

16. Technology Roadmapping
Nathasit Gerdsri
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Three stages of TRM implementation

17. Technology Roadmapping
Nathasit Gerdsri
Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,
Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)
Key success factors in TRM implementation
Critical components to the success of TRM implementation are people, processes
and data. Associated with these three components, the following is the summary of factors
contributing the success of TRM implementation.
-Clear business needs.
-Commitment from senior management.
-Right people/functions involved.
-Desire to develop effective business processes.
-Company culture supporting the group participation in the process.
-Timing and planning of the initiate.
-Clear and effective process for developing an ongoing TRM.
-Effective tools, techniques and methods.
-Effective facilitation and training.
-Required data information and knowledge.