Presentation to the foreign and exchange students at the Tallinn Technical University about the technological development in the world and technology trends as seen in 2011
HỌC TỐT TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO CHƯƠNG TRÌNH GLOBAL SUCCESS ĐÁP ÁN CHI TIẾT - CẢ NĂ...
Taking the Long View: ICT Trends & Developments
1. TAKING THE LONG VIEW: ICT
TRENDS & DEVELOPMENTS
November 1, 2011 @ TTU
Kristjan Rebane, Estonian Development Fund
2. Kristjan Rebane
At the Estonian Development Fund as Expert of
Information Society since 2007
Before that almost 8 years at the Estonian
Information Society Foundation
– starting up the IT College and
– establishing IT education spport programme Tiger
University
Previously more than 7 years at the Open Estonia
Foundation (local branch of Soros Foundations) in
areas of IT, economics, health care and several
scholarship schemes
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9. Preview into today’s topics
1 About Development Fund
2 Technological Development In the World
3 Technology Trends As Seen In 2011
10. 1
About Development Fund
Founded as a public law institution
By Riigikogu (the Parliament) in 2007
With two main tasks:
– Venture capital investments
– Foresight
www.arengufond.ee/eng
Twitter: Arengufond
11.
12. 1
Ignoranti, quem portum petat, nullus suus ventus est
(If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no
wind is favourable)
SENECA
13. 1
Development Fund’s Foresight work
Ad hoc Ad hoc
analysis / analysis /
In-house or In-house or
commissione commissioned
d
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14. 2
Where are new techologies born?
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WORLD
15. 2
About technology and the future
Estonia in 2018+
• A typical household has over
1000 microprocessors
• Petabite (1 PB = 1 millon GB) is the most
commonly used data unit
• The volume of video calls in minutes
exceeds that of voice calls
16. 2
And we don’t know,
what the future holds...
In 2004 there didn’t
exist 10 of the top
professions of 2020!
Today’s student in
the USA will have
had 10-14 jobs by
the age of 38*
* Source: USA Dept of Education
19. 2
Technology adoption speeds up
Time to reach 50 million users
Once the rules of game in the
world changed every 1000
years, then 300, then 100 and
then (in the 20th century) every
25 years
...but the human
nature has remained
basically the same!
Source: Forrester Research, Morgan Stanley, 2008
20. 2
Where are the new techologies born?
Where there are more people
dedicated to creating them!
Source: www.worldmapper.org
21. 2
Already today: dependence
on a computer
On October 1, 2008
A computer glitch
erased
HALF of
Google’s stock value
($200 of $400)
i.e. $62 billion
in just 4 minutes
Source: TechCrunch.com, Google Stock Falls $200 as Market Closes
22. 2
Already today: dependence
on a computer
On October 1, 2008
A computer glitch
erased
HALF of
Google’s stock value
($200 of $400)
i.e. $62 billion
in just 4 minutes
24. 2
ICT Grand Vision in the world
Trust & ICT for Societal ICT for Economic Science and
Confidence Challenges Challenges Engineering
Applied ICT for Major Societal and Economic Challenges
Enabling anywhere anytime natural and
enjoyable access to ICT services for ALL
Miniaturised, low cost Pervasive mobile
Natural interaction
low power components wireless, trustful
with ‘knowledge’
& systems infrastructure
µ, nano & opto- µ and nano Communication Software Knowledge User
electronics systems & networking technologies technologies interfaces
More in EST_IT@2018 report!
25. 2 Where is the world going?
Computing everywhere
Very small
compinents and
microsystems
with low energy
consumption
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
26. 2 Where is the world going?
Communications everywhere
Ubiquitous,
mobile,
wireless and
trustworthy
infrastructure
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
27. 2 Where is the world going?
Data everywhere
Data
management
and
user interfaces
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
29. 3
Technology trends of 2011
1. Mobile – Early Innings Growth, Still…
2. User Interface –
Text → Graphical → Touch / Sound / Move
3. Mega-Trend of 21st Century =
Empowerment of People via
Connected Mobile Devices
Based on Mary Meeker’s presentation
at Web 2.0 Summit San Francisco on October 18, 2011
34. 3
User Interface: Natural User Interface
Revolution–Now in Touch/Sound/Move Era
35. 3
Sound is going to be bigger than
video… ‘Record’ is the new
QWERTY.
Alexander Ljung, Founder & CEO, SoundCloud
36. 3
User Interface: The Next Big Thing(s)?
Those Two Big Things on the Sides of Your Head…
37. 3 Global Information Flow –
Real-Time + Fast + Broad
16 Minutes Before / After Japan Earthquake on 3/11/11
Snapshots of @replies From & To Twitter Users in Japan
2:30pm Japan Time 2:46pm Japan Time
Before Earthquake / Tsunami After Earthquake / Tsunami
Note: Yellow lines indicate tweets coming out of Japan; Pink lines indicate tweets coming into Japan. Source:
Twitter.
„In 140-character bites, the story unfolded: the shock and terror; the sense of human
frailty mixed with lifesaving information; the messages of those seeking comfort and
those seeing some kind of divine retribution, all mixing at hyper-speed.“ (LATimes,
3/11/11)
38. 3
Global Information Flow –
Remote Locations Getting Connected
85% of world’s population covered by
commercial wireless signals, providing greater
reach vs. electrical grid (80%).*
200MM+ farmers in India receiving
government payments / subsidies via mobile
devices.**
Source:
*GSM Association, United Nations.
**There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize
mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India.
39. 3
Closing Thoughts
Economy – Often darkest before dawn. At least we
know what the problems are. Now we need the
resolve to fix them. Across-the-board sacrifice
needed.
Tech Industry – Wow! Unprecedented times! If you
can keep your head when all about you are losing
theirs…*
“The majority of our products today will be gone in
ten years,” Samsung’s chairman Lee Kun-hee, in
January (via the Economist Oct 11, 2011).
*Rudyard Kipling - ‘If’
40. THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE!
(It’s just not very evenly distributed)
Kristjan Rebane
kristjan.rebane@arengufond.ee
Skype callto://kristjan.rebane/
http://www.arengufond.ee/eng/foresight/estit2018/
Editor's Notes
More than 300 IT professionals working at the campus of Tallinn University of Technology. Half of them are foreigners. Top business R&D performer in Estonia (10% of total BERD). Social mission: actively contributing to the popularisation of science subjects at schools, developing new curriculas and R&D networks with universities (STAK). After selling Skype to eBay its 4 Estonian co-founders created VC company Ambient Sound Investment (ASI) investing into crazy technology based ideas (acting more like business angels). World no 1 in long distance calls (before AT&T)
Free access to the Internet is like constitutional right for Estonians.
Lot of functions: sign your contracts or vote in elections or make on-line payments or buy bus ticket.
Online casino developer. Israeli VC started, Las Vegas background. Development in Tartu and Tallinn and India. Management in Israeli. Management desisions not made in Estonia. 300 IT specialists in Est, mainly Java programming and design. 70% annual growth, incl Asia. Licence contracts with online casinos is the business model.
Kaasakiskuvad visioonid ei sünni juhuse läbi ega ka riigiametnike poolt kuulutatuna.
Kasutuselevõtt + oma lahendustesse integreerimine
New technologies tend to follow different trajectories of hype, hope, and despair as they are discovered by different groups of people and finally adopted (or ignored) by consumers. Gartner actually goes ahead and charts this hype cycle for different technologies. Its latest hype cycle for 2008, shown above, is making the rounds. (It was released in July, but is just now reaching the upward trajectory in its own cycle). According to Gartner’s view of the world, the visibility of new technologies peaks early as initial excitement gains steam. This phase is followed by a “trough of disillusionment” in which inflated expectations hit reality. But as technologies prove themselves, their visibility begins to grow again at a more measured pace. Of course, not all technologies go through these phases. Some just drop of the face of the Earth never to be heard from again; some wander around for years and don’t hit their hype cycle until later in life, and some build visibility at a steadier pace. But it is still a useful visual metaphor, especially for high-profile technologies that do exhibit these traits. So where are we in the hype cycle exactly? Some technologies still moving towards the “peak of inflated expectations” include cloud computing, microblogging, and 3-D printing. Public Virtual Worlds, RFID, Web 2.0, and Wikis are troughing. And emerging into the “slope of enlightenment” are Tablet PCs (oh, yeah) and location-aware applications (thank you, iPhone).
Kondratievi lained e tsüklid; oma töös kasutab ka TTÜs õpetav Venezueela professor Carlotta Perez
IKT sektor umbes 1/3 maailma erasektori T&A investeeringutest; bio-farmaatsiatööstus 1/5 ja autotööstus 1/5 Valdav enamus tehnoloogiaid, mis 10 aasta pärast mainstream , täna mingil kujul juba olemas.
Glitch Drops Google Stock Price $200 in Four Minutes, Wiping Out $62 Billion [Oops] from Gizmodo, The Gadget Blog by matt buchanan At probably like the worst time ever for your stock to plummet harder than a meteor on a collision course with Bruce Willis, a glitch knocked $200 off of Google's stock price—that's half—in the span of four minutes as the markets were closing today. $62 billion. Erased. In four minutes. The glitch has been fixed, bringing it back to the correct price of $407, but some trades actually did go through at the bargain basement price. While they'll be repealed, it shows you that it's so crazy out there even computers are going nuts right now. The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash was a United States stock market crash on May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points — or about nine percent — only to recover those losses within minutes. Temporarily, $1 trillion in market value disappeared.
Glitch Drops Google Stock Price $200 in Four Minutes, Wiping Out $62 Billion [Oops] from Gizmodo, The Gadget Blog by matt buchanan At probably like the worst time ever for your stock to plummet harder than a meteor on a collision course with Bruce Willis, a glitch knocked $200 off of Google's stock price—that's half—in the span of four minutes as the markets were closing today. $62 billion. Erased. In four minutes. The glitch has been fixed, bringing it back to the correct price of $407, but some trades actually did go through at the bargain basement price. While they'll be repealed, it shows you that it's so crazy out there even computers are going nuts right now. The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash was a United States stock market crash on May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points — or about nine percent — only to recover those losses within minutes. Temporarily, $1 trillion in market value disappeared.
Born global, asutatud 1998 Perpetual beta Google +85 eri teenust Google began as a research project in 1996, Google.com domain went online in 1997 30 million pages indexed in 1998, 1 billion pages indexed in 2000, 8 billion pages indexed in in 2004, 1 Trillion pages indexed in in 2008 It currently runs over 1 million computer servers in data centers around the world Google search handles over 1 billion searches per day, 7.2 billion daily page views, 87.8 billion monthly worldwide searches conducted on Google sites Google’s global search market share is 85% Revenue in 2000 was $19 million, loss of $14 million; In 2009 Google’s revenue was nearly $23 billion, profit was $6.5 billion 97% is the percentage of revenue from advertising Over 19,000 employees, 37% are research staff, 37% are sales staff 45% of Google’s products are currently in Beta The Google Driverless car named the ‘Stanley’ won the DARPA Grand challenge and the $2 million in prize money from the US Department of Defense in 2005