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the value gap
            Jeff Selingo
             June 2012
2012
1995

2012

2029
1999-2009
            A decade of More
More
Students,
More
Degrees
Number of
students
up by 1/3
since late
1990s
             Source: U.S. Education Department
2 in 5 titles on government list of academic
  programs didn’t appear on it in 1990
21% increase in titles since 2000

                      More Credentials
More Tuition

In 2003, only 2
colleges charged
more than $40K


By 2009, 224
passed that
mark. Another
58 passed $50K
Source: The College Board
More Debt

$277,000,000,000
Amount of debt
taken on by
colleges, which has
doubled just since
2001


Source: The College Board
Students were willing to go to any college and
pay almost anything for a degree



                                   Why?
Answer: Degree Premium




Source: The College Board
Degree premium has dropped since 2008 but still
  better to be a college grad than a high school grad




 Source: The College Board   Unemployment Rates Among Individuals Ages 25 and Older, by Education Level, 1992–2009
2008
   a shifting paradigm in debate
          over the cost of college
Enough is enough
 Families could no longer use their homes as ATMs
no home   squeezed   federal    more out
 equity    states    deficits   of pocket
A shift from talking about price

            to asking about value
What am I paying for?
 Rate the job the higher-education system is
                     doing in providing value
                       for the money spent?

                 57% of public says fair/poor
76% of college presidents say excellent/good



                                 Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
1 in 3
 Number of presidents who said there is
no one single effective measure to judge
     the quality of a college degree


                           Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
How and what will I
learn ?

Will I get a job ?

Will I make enough
money to pay off my debt
?
How and what will I learn?
36%
Reading and writing
Field of study matters
Will I get a job?




     Source: Georgetown U. Center for Education &
     Workforce
Will I make enough money to
pay off my debt?
1999-2009
            A lost decade
Keys to Disrupting Legacy Industries

                 Hubris


      Skepticism of anything new


  Unwilling to hear opposing viewpoints
“The only really necessary people in the publishing process
                         now are the writer and the reader.
                   Everyone who stands between those two
                             has both risk and opportunity”

                                            -Larry Kirshbaum
                          Head of Amazon’s NY Publishing Unit
Key Question:
      What are the less tangible aspects
      that define your college experience
          that can’t be easily be replaced
       by fragmented, simplified services
                          on the Internet?
The Coming Disruption
      Most at Risk   Least at Risk
Commodity courses    The “experience”
      The network    Maturing students
    The credential   The student/professor
                       relationship
“The Internet will stay around, but whether
it will become a significant commercial
force is questionable. I don’t picture the
Web replacing television or newspaper
advertising in the next decade.”

                        – Peter Krivkovich,
              president of Cramer-Krasselt
                             July 12, 1995
Coming in Spring 2013:

College (Un)Bound     jeff@selingo.com
The Future of Higher
                      twitter: @jselingo
Education and What It
Means for Students    jeffselingo.com

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The Value Gap

  • 1. the value gap Jeff Selingo June 2012
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 7. 1999-2009 A decade of More
  • 8. More Students, More Degrees Number of students up by 1/3 since late 1990s Source: U.S. Education Department
  • 9. 2 in 5 titles on government list of academic programs didn’t appear on it in 1990 21% increase in titles since 2000 More Credentials
  • 10. More Tuition In 2003, only 2 colleges charged more than $40K By 2009, 224 passed that mark. Another 58 passed $50K Source: The College Board
  • 11. More Debt $277,000,000,000 Amount of debt taken on by colleges, which has doubled just since 2001 Source: The College Board
  • 12. Students were willing to go to any college and pay almost anything for a degree Why?
  • 13. Answer: Degree Premium Source: The College Board
  • 14. Degree premium has dropped since 2008 but still better to be a college grad than a high school grad Source: The College Board Unemployment Rates Among Individuals Ages 25 and Older, by Education Level, 1992–2009
  • 15. 2008 a shifting paradigm in debate over the cost of college
  • 16. Enough is enough Families could no longer use their homes as ATMs
  • 17. no home squeezed federal more out equity states deficits of pocket
  • 18. A shift from talking about price to asking about value
  • 19. What am I paying for? Rate the job the higher-education system is doing in providing value for the money spent? 57% of public says fair/poor 76% of college presidents say excellent/good Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
  • 20. 1 in 3 Number of presidents who said there is no one single effective measure to judge the quality of a college degree Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
  • 21. How and what will I learn ? Will I get a job ? Will I make enough money to pay off my debt ?
  • 22. How and what will I learn? 36% Reading and writing Field of study matters
  • 23. Will I get a job? Source: Georgetown U. Center for Education & Workforce
  • 24. Will I make enough money to pay off my debt?
  • 25. 1999-2009 A lost decade
  • 26. Keys to Disrupting Legacy Industries Hubris Skepticism of anything new Unwilling to hear opposing viewpoints
  • 27.
  • 28. “The only really necessary people in the publishing process now are the writer and the reader. Everyone who stands between those two has both risk and opportunity” -Larry Kirshbaum Head of Amazon’s NY Publishing Unit
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. Key Question: What are the less tangible aspects that define your college experience that can’t be easily be replaced by fragmented, simplified services on the Internet?
  • 32. The Coming Disruption Most at Risk Least at Risk Commodity courses The “experience” The network Maturing students The credential The student/professor relationship
  • 33.
  • 34. “The Internet will stay around, but whether it will become a significant commercial force is questionable. I don’t picture the Web replacing television or newspaper advertising in the next decade.” – Peter Krivkovich, president of Cramer-Krasselt July 12, 1995
  • 35. Coming in Spring 2013: College (Un)Bound jeff@selingo.com The Future of Higher twitter: @jselingo Education and What It Means for Students jeffselingo.com