An Inconvenient Reality Oct 2007

Workforce Preparation Challenges and STEM AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

Hawai`i’s Changing Economy
Major shifts in the world and U.S. economies have had a substantial impact in on the United States.
These shifts have had a dramatic affect on the type of jobs, the level of personal income, and the quality of life.

Hawai`i Employment by Industry - 1962 Business services 1% Other services 6% Federal military 23% Insurance 1% Health services 2% Real estate 2% Hotel services 2% Finance 2% Retail 12% Communication 1% Wholesale 5% Utilities 1% Transportation 4% Manufacturing 10% Construction 6% Agriculture 5% County government 3% State government 6% Federal civilian 10% Source: P. Brewbaker, BOH, Aug. 02

Hawai`i Employment by Industry - 2006

We Have Developing Opportunities, Will We Have the Workforce?

The Worker Supply Gap An Insufficient Number of Qualified Workers

We Need to Fill 28,000 Jobs Annually Source: EMSI June 2007 28,615 21,446 7,169 Total Jobs 68 72 (4) Legal occupations 78 80 (2) Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 281 248 33 Architecture and engineering occupations 283 194 89 Life, physical, and social science occupations 381 164 217 Computer and mathematical science occupations 514 247 267 Community and social services occupations 604 269 335 Healthcare support occupations 684 384 300 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 814 685 128 Protective service occupations 828 1,322 (494) Military Occupations 851 763 87 Construction and extraction occupations 959 687 272 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 960 607 352 Business and financial operations occupations 994 582 411 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 1,234 952 281 Production occupations 1,410 1,142 268 Transportation and material moving occupations 1,484 923 560 Education, training, and library occupations 1,565 759 806 Personal care and service occupations 1,618 967 650 Management occupations 1,865 982 883 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 3,226 3,125 101 Office and administrative support occupations 3,608 3,180 428 Food preparation and serving related occupations 4,308 3,109 1,199 Sales and related occupations Total Due to Separations Due to Growth SOC Job Cluster Average Annual Openings

Source: EMSI June 2007 Most Require Education Beyond HS 28,615 21,446 7,169 Total Jobs 68 72 (4) Legal occupations 78 80 (2) Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 281 248 33 Architecture and engineering occupations 283 194 89 Life, physical, and social science occupations 381 164 217 Computer and mathematical science occupations 514 247 267 Community and social services occupations 604 269 335 Healthcare support occupations 684 384 300 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 814 685 128 Protective service occupations 828 1,322 (494) Military Occupations 851 763 87 Construction and extraction occupations 959 687 272 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 960 607 352 Business and financial operations occupations 994 582 411 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 1,234 952 281 Production occupations 1,410 1,142 268 Transportation and material moving occupations 1,484 923 560 Education, training, and library occupations 1,565 759 806 Personal care and service occupations 1,618 967 650 Management occupations 1,865 982 883 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 3,226 3,125 101 Office and administrative support occupations 3,608 3,180 428 Food preparation and serving related occupations 4,308 3,109 1,199 Sales and related occupations Total Due to Separations Due to Growth SOC Job Cluster Average Annual Openings

Source: EMSI June 2007 Hawaii’s Growing Innovation Sector STEM Jobs Comprise nearly 10% of the Total Jobs in the State 2,642 16,632 12,430 94,719 82,290 TOTAL 604 2,962 3,679 20,190 16,509 Healthcare support occupations 993 6,406 4,520 35,774 31,251 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 99 597 495 3,123 2,627 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 284 2,138 981 9,104 8,126 Life, physical, and social science occupations 281 2,732 363 12,143 11,781 Architecture and engineering occupations 381 1,798 2,392 14,386 11,995 Computer and mathematical science occupations Annual Jobs to Fill Replacement Jobs New Jobs 2017 Jobs 2006 Jobs Description

HS Graduates Supply Less Than 1/2 of the 28,000 Annual Jobs to Fill Source: WICHE High School Graduate Projections

We Need to be Ready to Replace Skilled People in Critical Jobs Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5%PUMS Files

Homes on O‘ahu—Beyond Affordable Source: The Honolulu Advertiser , University of Hawaii economist Carl Bonham We can no longer depend on an imported workforce. * Price of an affordable home based on state’s median household income, average mortgage rate, and a 30-year mortgage with 20% down. ** Projected $356,100 $128,400 $591,300** $369,400** **

We are Exporting the Experienced Core of Our Workforce Hawaii Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Professional Total 607 -5,778 -11,761 -1,787 -1,962 603 -20,078 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 806 1,151 -2,132 -819 2,108 1,187 2,301 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

We Can Expect Continued Difficulty in Filling Job Vacancies Well Into the Future Projected Change in Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections Age: <15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Unemployment Rates—Hawaii and U.S., 1995-2006 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

We Need to Increase the Rate of Participation in the Workforce Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Hawaii = 64.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 16 and Older Participating in the Workforce, 2004 66 .6% to 66 .9% 60 .6% to 66 .6% 58 .0% to 60 .6% 39 .4% to 58 .0% Hawaii Maui Honolulu Kauai

An Individual’s Level of Education is Directly Related to Their Ability to Participate in the Workforce Hawaii Civilians Age 25-64 in the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File Less than High School High School Diploma or GED Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce Number Percent Number Percent 34,623 63.8 19,658 36.2 144,239 75.4 46,967 24.6 104,974 78.1 29,469 21.9 55,994 81.1 13,074 18.9 111,765 83.9 21,485 16.1 53,100 84.5 9,724 15.5

The Worker Preparation Gap An Insufficient Number of People with Needed Skills

A Lack of Investment Has Resulted in Shortages in Critical Fields Number of 2-Year Degrees and Certificates in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 HS Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 2000 Arizona Wisconsin Kansas Colorado Florida North Carolina Louisiana Kentucky Iowa Georgia South Carolina Illinois Washington Mississippi Minnesota Virginia Tennessee Alabama Arkansas South Dakota Indiana Utah United States Idaho Missouri New Mexico West Virginia Wyoming Oregon Delaware California New Hampshire Nevada Michigan Nebraska Ohio Texas Maine Massachusetts New York Pennsylvania North Dakota Rhode Island Oklahoma Montana Vermont Hawaii Maryland Alaska Connecticut New Jersey

Number of 4-Year Degrees in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates 1997 North Dakota Nebraska Delaware South Dakota Louisiana Maine Missouri West Virginia Arkansas Alabama Kansas Pennsylvania Indiana Rhode Island Massachusetts North Carolina New York Mississippi Idaho New Hampshire Florida Michigan Wisconsin Utah Connecticut Virginia United States Ohio Tennessee Georgia Hawaii Illinois Maryland Iowa Oregon Kentucky New Mexico Oklahoma Arizona Montana Colorado Nevada Texas Minnesota Washington South Carolina Vermont Wyoming Alaska California New Jersey

Number of 4-Year Degrees Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 1997

As Experienced Workers Leave the Workforce, We Need to Get More Incumbent Workers to Enroll in Further Education Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment as a % of Population Age 25-44, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS, U.S. Census Bureau 5.2 10.8 6.2 3.3 Arizona California Utah New Mexico Kansas Alaska Wyoming Nevada Illinois Oregon Michigan Nebraska Colorado Florida Missouri Washington Rhode Island Wisconsin United States Maryland Texas Minnesota Virginia Iowa Oklahoma Delaware Maine North Carolina Hawaii Massachusetts Alabama Connecticut Idaho Ohio South Dakota Vermont Indiana South Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey Tennessee Arkansas New York Kentucky Georgia Louisiana Mississippi North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania Montana

Education Pipeline Performance An Insufficient Number of Individuals Prepared for Further Education or Training

Key Transition Points in the Education to Work Pipeline
Complete High School
Enter College
Finish College
Enter the Workplace

Student Pipeline—2004 Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2004 Residence and Migration Survey, NCEC IPEDS 2004 Fall Enrollment Survey and Graduation Rate Survey

UH Community Colleges’ Entering Student Placement

HAWAII

Hawaii’s underperformance in educating its young population could limit the state’s access to a competitive workforce and weaken its economy over time. As the well-educated baby boomer generation begins to retire, the young population that will replace it does not appear prepared educationally to maintain or enhance the state’s position in a global economy. Hawaii continues to fall behind in graduating 9th graders from high school within four years and enrolling them in college by age 19—and these rates have dropped by double digits since the early 1990s.

Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education 22% 7% 7% Low-income 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient' on the national assessment exam 41% 18% 15% in writing 41% 18% 15% in science 38% 15% 19% in reading 38% 18% 14% in math 8th graders scoring at or above "proficient' on the national assessment exam K-12 Student Achievement 94% 94% 94% 18- to 24-year olds with a high school credential High School Completion 2006 1992 Top States 2006 HAWAII PREPARATION

Eighth graders in Hawaii perform very poorly on national assessments in math, science, reading, and writing, indicating that they are not well prepared to succeed in challenging high school courses. Hawaii is among the lowest-performing states in science and reading.
Low-income 8th graders perform very poorly on national assessments in math.

We are a top state when we measure rate of HS graduation.
We are far behind, however, when we look at actual student performance in skills critical to success in post-secondary education and the new jobs in our economy.
Despite improvement, Hawaii lags many other states in preparing students to succeed in college.
To Sum Up

There are consequences.

Hawaii is almost 30 percentage points below the national benchmark in workforce preparation as reflected in professional licensure examinations.
Hawaii also ranks more than 35 percentage points below the national benchmark in preparing students for graduate study.
Hawaii is about 15% below the national benchmark with respect to pass rates on the state’s teacher examinations.

HAWAII CHALLENGE: Raise Achievement and Close Gaps Hawaii Education Summit August, 2007

Let’s take a closer look at our 15 year olds.

2003: U.S. Ranked 24 th out of 29 OECD Countries in Mathematics Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/

Problems are not limited to our high-poverty and high-minority schools . . .

U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math Source : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/

U.S. Ranks 23 rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of the Highest-Performing Students* * Students at the 95 th Percentile Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http:// www.oecd.org /

U.S. Ranks 23 rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of High-SES Students Source : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http:// www.oecd.org /

Problems not limited to math, either.

PISA 2003: Problem-Solving, US Ranks 24 th Out of 29 OECD Countries Source : NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem Solving: 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003

More than half of our 15 year olds at problem-solving level 1 or below. Source: OECD Problem Solving for Tomorrow’s World. 2004

Where is Hawaii in All of This?

Hawaii: State Math Results Grade 4, 2007

Hawaii: State Math Results Grade 8, 2007

Hawaii 10 th Grade Math: Students “Well Below” 539 35% White 292 72% Samoan 1,667 64% Part Haw. 326 24% Japanese 349 70% Hawaiian 1,352 47% Filipino 99 24% Chinese Number Percent

Loss at the Top: Math 2% 1% 9% Samoan 4% 3% 12% Part Hawaiian 2% 1% 12% Hawaiian Exceeds in Grade 10 Exceeds in Grade 8 Exceeds in Grade 4

Hawaii Students on National Assessments?

Hawaii: NAEP 8th Grade Math 2005

8th Grade Math: NAEP Fewer Students Below Basic, More Proficient

Relative to Other States?

NAEP 2005 Grade 8 Math, Overall Scale Scores Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde

NAEP 2005 Grade 8 Math, Low-Income Scale Scores Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde

Education “Pipeline” in Hawaii Note: Enrollment data for 2- and 4- year colleges do not sum to 100 because each includes large number of students who self-identify as “other”, 13% in 2-year colleges and 38% in 4-year colleges. 13% 21% Filipino 3% 4% Samoan 14% 27% Hawaiian 21% 15% White 21% 14% East Asian UH System K-12

Hawaii Postsecondary vs. Leading States 67% 43% Freshmen Obtaining BA in 6 years 82% 72% Freshmen in 4 Year Colleges Returning 62% 51% Community College Freshmen Returning 53% 32% HS Freshmen enrolling in college 4 years later Top Five States Hawaii

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) by Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Age 25-34 Age 45-64 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Massachusetts Minnesota North Dakota Connecticut Colorado New York New Jersey Vermont New Hampshire Maryland Nebraska Illinois Virginia Iowa Rhode Island South Dakota Wisconsin Washington Pennsylvania Kansas Delaware Hawaii Utah United States Montana Michigan North Carolina Georgia Ohio Missouri Oregon Wyoming California Florida Maine Indiana Idaho South Carolina Arizona Texas Alabama Tennessee Alaska Oklahoma Kentucky New Mexico Mississippi Louisiana West Virginia Arkansas Nevada

Differences in College Attainment (Assoc. and Higher) by Age Group—Hawaii, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2005

THE BOTTOM LINE: WE NEED BETTER OUTCOMES
We are falling behind other states in the U.S. and competitors in the Pacific region in the education of our future workforce.

David Heenan – Flight Capital (2005)
Know Thy Competition
Adapt – or Die
Spur Immigration Reform
Dust off the Welcome Mat
Target the Best Minds
Encourage Dual Loyalties
Reform – Really Reform – Public Education
Nourish the Halls of Ivy
Celebrate Science and Technology
Expand the Workforce
Reconsider National Service
Act Now

Confronting the Future
We won't lose by taking bold action. But we will probably be hurt badly if we're too slow to prevent the worst-case scenario.
Hawai'i needs no outside permission. The next generation will thank us. Let's get on with it.
Mike Fitzgerald, President and CEO of Enterprise Honolulu
(Honolulu Advertiser, July 17, 2007)

For Further Information Contact: Jeffrey Piontek AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

An Inconvenient Reality Oct 2007

by Jeffrey Piontek

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An Inconvenient Reality Oct 2007 Presentation Transcript