Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
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Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
- 1. Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director Mr. Bo Diczfalusy, Director Paris, June 11 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
- 2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DS a vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is now energy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentially Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating results and CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012
- 3. Sustainable future still in reach Are we on track to Can we get on Is a clean energy reach a clean track? transition urgent? energy future? NO ✗ YES ✓ YES ✓ © OECD/IEA 2012
- 4. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012
- 5. A smart, sustainable energy system A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
- 6. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track © OECD/IEA 2012
- 7. Low-carbon electricity: a clean core 45 000 Other 40 000 Wind 35 000 Solar 30 000 Hydro Nuclear TWh 25 000 Biomass and waste 20 000 Oil 15 000 Gas with CCS 10 000 Gas 5 000 Coal with CCS 0 Coal 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS © OECD/IEA 2012
- 8. Renewables need to dominate EU electricity 5 000 100% 4% 4% 13% Other renewables 4 500 90% 17% 10% 4 000 80% Wind 21% 3 500 70% 28% 28% Solar 7% Generation share 3 000 60% 9% TWh 2 500 50% 10% Hydro 2 000 40% 22% 13% Nuclear 1 500 30% 53% 1% Fossil w CCS 1 000 20% 23% 27% 500 10% Fossil w/o CCS 7% 0 0% 2% 4DS 2DS 4DS 2DS 2009 2050 2009 2050 Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
- 9. Wind and solar must grow quickly Hydro Nuclear CSP 2020-50 PV Wind, offshore 2010-20 Wind, onshore 2006-10 Biomass Gas with CCS Coal with CCS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 GW per year An additional USD 1.2 trillion are needed in the EU power sector, but fuel savings amount to USD 2.7 trillion
- 10. All flexibility sources will be needed Demand side Interconnection Dispatchable Energy storage Response with adjacent power plants facilities (via smart grid) markets Industrial Biomass-fired residential Pumped hydro Scandinavian power plant facility interconnections
- 11. Natural Gas: a transitional fuel 7 500 Power Generation from Natural Gas 5 000 TWh 2 500 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD China India Other non-OECD Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’ © OECD/IEA 2012
- 12. The CCS infant must grow quickly Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year © OECD/IEA 2012
- 13. Industry must become more efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries 8 Chemicals and petrochemicals GtCO2 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel 0 Cement 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 14. Electric vehicles need to come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell Electricity Passenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
- 15. Translating targets into action 8 7 Manufacturers 6 production/sales million sales/year 5 4 3 Projection 2 (Estimated from each country's 1 target) 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012
- 16. Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future Total energy savings 33 EJ Space heating 22% Other 15% Water heating Services 12% Lighting, 3% Residential Cooling and ventilation, 3% Water heating, 2% Cooking 15% Space heating, 7% Appliances Cooling and ventilation 10% Lighting 5% 6% About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector © OECD/IEA 2012
- 17. Building sector challenges differ 2.5 2.0 Billion households 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
- 18. Heating & Cooling: huge potential Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 19. Emissions must be eliminated by 2075 A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 20. Clean energy investment pays off Additional Additional investment investment Power With Fuel savings Industry price effect Transport Without price effect Residential Commercial Undiscounted Total savings Fuel savings 3% Biomass Coal 10% Oil - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 Gas USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 21. For much more, please visit www.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012