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The role of electric vehicles in a clean energy future - IEA Executive Director

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The role of electric vehicles in a clean energy future - IEA Executive Director

  1. 1. Fully Charged 2012International Electric Vehicle Summit Dublin The Role of EVs in a Clean Energy Future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Ireland, 11 July 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  2. 2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DSa vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is nowenergy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentiallyGreenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating resultsand CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012
  3. 3. A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Distributed energy resourcesSmart energysystem control H2 vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
  4. 4. Decarbonising electricity generation in Ireland Renewables policy emphasis  Favourable REFITs extended Renewables target: 40%  Wind =10%; 30% 2020 target generation by 2020  New REFITs for 2nd gen. biomass 35 TWh 30 Gas is the dominant fuel 25  Now accounts for 62% of power 20  Will grow in tandem with 15 growth in variable renewables 10 Coal and peat are declining 5 0  Carbon tax disincentive 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009  Peat subsidies phased out Oil Natural gas Peat Coal Hydro Biofuels and waste Wind
  5. 5. Electric vehicles need to come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell ElectricityPassenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
  6. 6. Translating targets into action 8 7 Manufacturers 6 production/salesmillion sales/year 5 Projection 4 (Estimated from each countrys 3 target) Projection 2 (Estimated from each countrys 1 target) 0 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012
  7. 7. Key global milestones along the way 2011 2015 2020 actual targets targetsWorldwide NearEV/PHEV sales 50,000 1.5 million 7 million NearPublic charging points 25,000 3 million 10 million Under UnderBattery cost ($/kWh) $600-800 $500 $300 Even the 2015 targets will be challenging © OECD/IEA 2012
  8. 8. New technology vehicles and low carbon fuels are keyLow carbon vehicles and fuels become increasinglyimportant after 2030, but need a foundation well beforethen to succeed. © OECD/IEA 2012

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