Havas Worldwide Trendbook 2014
 

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Havas Worldwide Trendbook 2014 Document Transcript

  • 1. 14 TRENDS FOR 2014
  • 2. We almost didn’t bother issuing trends for 2014 when every Tom, Dick and Harry—and Jane, Megan and Martha—have anointed themselves trendspotters. And maybe they should, since 2013 is what we’re calling the Year of the Everyday Trendspotter. As with cooking, today’s short-order trend observer and fabricator has more or less replaced the master chef in serving up bits and bytes of observations about the next. Mommy bloggers know the parenting horizon, hipsters know the urban landscape, fashionistas design the blend of black meets blue. With smart search and up-to-the-second updates, anyone with a deep interest and a keen eye in their chosen field can gather the latest, interpret what’s happening and talk trends. Not everyone who pitches in will hit the jackpot, but the law of averages says that the new wave of trendspotters will yield some real talent. Is trendspotting knowing, or just seeing right around the corner? Who knows. (And does knowing even matter in the age of instant answers and real-time gratification?) With all that, what we do know is that this might well be the last year for an annual roundup. So here goes for what’s on the horizon. 2
  • 3. TINKERING AND EXPERIMENTATION —THE ÜBERTREND IN A WORLD THAT’S DYSFUNCTIONAL, STUCK OR BROKEN 1 3
  • 4. TINKERING AND EXPERIMENTATION —THE ÜBERTREND IN A WORLD THAT’S DYSFUNCTIONAL, STUCK OR BROKEN The world has perhaps become too complex and too fast-moving for complicated top-down solutions to work in government, corporations or big organizations. Fortunately, other approaches are emerging. If geeks have taught us anything, it’s that innovation and solutions come from a whole lot of people tinkering with existing technology and seeing what they can come up with. The old and much maligned notion of computer hacking has morphed into more benign forms of tinkering such as Lifehacker and HackingWork. This spirit of hacking is the übertrend of our times as people struggle to deal with a whole stack of problems: economic woes, political polarization, gridlock social problems and environmental crises. Whatever the problem, you can be sure that somewhere out there, some smart people will be tinkering quietly with it or boldly challenging the status quo. 4
  • 5. GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD— LOTS OF GOOD— THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS 2 5
  • 6. GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD— LOTS OF GOOD— THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS Fewer and fewer ills and issues will be solved by decrees that are more driven by ideology than based on practical experience. Fortunately, the rise of the collaborative society means that personal monies will be channeled into state schools, city parks and even federal highways, if that is what it takes to restore our peace of mind or some semblance of a competitive quality of life. Some of that money will be motivated by guilt (being part of the 1 percent can be pretty uncomfortable), some will carry the stamp of ego, some will demonstrate donors’ political principles and some will flow from good old public spiritedness. But who cares, as long as the money moves and things start to happen? Some will work, some won’t. Right now, there are no hard-and-fast rules and no surefire formulas. Time will tell. 6
  • 7. TO BREAK UP, OR NOT TO BREAK UP: THAT IS THE QUESTION —FOR COUNTRIES AND STATES IN 2014 3 7
  • 8. TO BREAK UP, OR NOT TO BREAK UP: THAT IS THE QUESTION —FOR COUNTRIES AND STATES IN 2014 Maybe big nation-states are too cumbersome for today’s fastchanging world. Many were patched together by nation-builders who appealed to people’s common language, culture and interests. Now hyperconnectivity not only shrinks time and space among countries, but it also makes people realize the value of their local ties within countries. It enables small, cohesive states to make a big, global impact without needing to be big. Think: Nordic countries, Singapore and Hong Kong. In Europe, Scotland is preparing for a 2014 referendum on leaving the U.K. and becoming an independent country, and the U.K. Independence Party is rooting for its country to leave the EU. There are even suggestions that London become independent from the U.K. In Spain, Catalonia wants its own referendum to leave Spain. And the States are looking increasingly less united as talk of secession sweeps the country, with separatist movements brewing in Texas, Alaska and Vermont. 8
  • 9. OVER-60s SEEK NEW ROLES AS THEY RETHINK THE MEANING OF LIFE BEYOND MIDDLE AGE 4 9
  • 10. OVER-60s SEEK NEW ROLES AS THEY RETHINK THE MEANING OF LIFE BEYOND MIDDLE AGE Back before the economic bust, turning 60 meant getting ready to leave the world of work and easing through the twilight years, passing the time with easy-on-the-body leisure activities. It was a time for winter months in warmer places, hobbies, a little travel and lots of hanging out with the grandchildren. Now longer life spans and threadbare retirement plans are forcing a big rethink of what life can be about into the 60s and beyond. What can over-60s’ working life be about when jobs are in short supply for young people looking to get a start in work? What can over-60s contribute to a world where digital savvy is essential and life happens at warp speed? There are no ready-made answers, but there’s a huge demographic with every incentive to invent worthwhile new roles. Watch as the word senior morphs from an embarrassing arms-length euphemism to a badge of pride and respect. 10
  • 11. WHO’S NEXT AFTER POPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD WITH REBRANDING THE WORLD’S OLDEST ORGANIZATION? 5 11
  • 12. WHO’S NEXT AFTER POPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD WITH REBRANDING THE WORLD’S OLDEST ORGANIZATION? It’s tempting to wonder whether Pope Francis took a behind-thescenes doctorate in branding and marketing. Less than a year into his papacy, he has thoroughly refreshed an ancient brand brought low by scandal. Out of the blue, he personally calls people for a chat, he tweets and he thinks differently than his predecessors about a whole range of key issues. The Pope Francis effect has scored stellar media coverage but no significant uptick in people identifying as Catholics—yet. It’s not just in the Vatican that a new style is emerging. In Iran, new president Hassan Rouhani celebrated his position with an MTVstyle video that’s apparently inspired by Barack Obama’s 2008 “Yes We Can” classic. Like the pope, Rouhani has decided that having his own Twitter account is a smart way to connect with the wider world. 12
  • 13. MINTS MAKE THE RUNNING AS BRICS DROP OFF THE PACE 6 13
  • 14. MINTS MAKE THE RUNNING AS BRICS DROP OFF THE PACE It has been more than a decade since economist Jim O’Neill flagged the BRIC countries as the world’s hot investment tip. And sure enough, the market indices of Brazil, Russia, India and China grew 154 percent between 2004 and 2012 compared with around 28 percent for the S&P 500. But now the BRICs have lost a lot of their PR shine. It’s touch and go as to whether Brazil will be ready in time for the 2014 soccer World Cup. Before then, expect Russia to face controversy in the runup to the Winter Olympics in Sochi. India’s economic outlook is getting worse, and China’s economy is looking shaky. O’Neill is now tipping a new foursome, which he has dubbed MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey), with big, young, dynamic populations and strong economic prospects. Will the MINTs have what it takes to freshen up a stale world economy? 14
  • 15. THE WORKPLACE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MILLENNIALS 7 15
  • 16. THE WORKPLACE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MILLENNIALS The next normal? Constant feedback and networking, no negative phrases, and two steps sideways to take three steps forward will evolve as social business begins upstaging the business practices of the last decade. Like them or not, the aspirations, values and style of millennials are shifting from intern oddities to mainstream normal in the workplace and marketplace. Watch Stanford’s d.school replace Harvard’s B School as the gottaget-to, and the Summit Series become more Davos than Davos for young dealmakers. Move over, boomer. Park your sarcasm, Mr. and Ms. X. The millennials have risen, and they will reshape the world in their image. 16
  • 17. TALKING ALTERNATIVES TO CAPITALISM AS WE KNOW IT TO DELIVER JOBS 8 17
  • 18. TALKING ALTERNATIVES TO CAPITALISM AS WE KNOW IT TO DELIVER JOBS With aftershocks from the 2007-08 economic earthquake still rippling around the world, a lot of people are losing faith in the letit-rip free-market capitalism that drove the long boom. Where did all the money go? Where did all the old jobs go? Where will new jobs come from? Are long years of economic pain inevitable? Money woes for the majority and gigabucks for the fortunate few are fueling a rise in economic populism. In floundering France, the right-wing firebrand Marine Le Pen’s National Front is denouncing banks and cross-border capitalism, helping to make it the most popular party in the country. In the United States, left-of-center Sen. Elizabeth Warren has become a hot political ticket by going to bat for the middle class and criticizing big corporations and financial institutions. It looks like an idea with legs. As behavioral economist Dan Ariely found, Americans want to live in a much more equal country, but they just don’t realize it. 18
  • 19. GETTING DOWN AND DIRTY WITH PREBIOTICS AND THE MICROBIOME 9 19
  • 20. GETTING DOWN AND DIRTY WITH PREBIOTICS AND THE MICROBIOME There’s usually an eager market for miracle cures, especially if they don’t involve a whole lot of effort or a major change of lifestyle. As health foods go, it’s hard to beat the appeal of red wine, coffee and chocolate—all in moderation, of course. One of the most promising new approaches to all-around health might take a little longer to gain traction, though, as it’s about cultivating bugs rather than zapping them. Scientists are exploring the health effects of the body’s microbiome— the billions of bacteria, viruses and fungi that live all over the body, outside and in. Having the right bugs in the digestive tract plays a crucial role in health. Encouraging them with prebiotics (that’s pre-, not pro-) and even fecal transplants is shaping up as a solid approach to tackling a whole range of health problems including obesity, allergies and autoimmune conditions. 20
  • 21. FORGET DUMBING DOWN: TV IS SMARTING UP WITH LONG-FORM EPICS 10 21
  • 22. FORGET DUMBING DOWN: TV IS SMARTING UP WITH LONG-FORM EPICS Although the Internet is arguably making attention spans shorter and Hollywood is doubling down on sugar-rush blockbusters for young audiences, TV is steering hard in the opposite direction with a growing body of complex long-form dramas. The recently finished fiveseason epic “Breaking Bad” joins an illustrious roster including “The Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men,” “Boardwalk Empire,” “Homeland” and dark Nordic thrillers such as “The Killing,” out of Denmark. So much for instant gratification. It takes a lot of commitment and concentration to follow complex storylines that unfold over dozens of episodes delivered weekly over months. For impatient long-form addicts, on-demand streaming services are taking the waiting out of watching, delivering back-to-back episodes for binge viewing. With hundreds of hours of compelling drama accumulating in box sets, on DVRs and on VOD services, the market for consumer attention is getting even tougher. 22
  • 23. CARS ARE GETTING SMARTER, BUT WALKING WILL BECOME THE ULTIMATE LUXURY 11 23
  • 24. CARS ARE GETTING SMARTER, BUT WALKING WILL BECOME THE ULTIMATE LUXURY Cars are a lot smarter than they used to be, that’s for sure. Engine management technology makes them more efficient, GPS and sat nav guide your trip, and proximity sensors help you avoid fender benders on the way. Pretty soon, cars will be even smarter. Google’s pioneering driverless cars are facing competition from more established automotive brands such as Volvo and Mercedes-Benz. But as smart as cars might become, getting around by that mode of transportation increasingly seems much less smart than it used to. Americans spend a lot of time in their cars—as much as 18.5 hours a week, according to one estimate—and an average of 38 hours a year stuck in traffic. That’s a lot of sitting that doesn’t do much for productivity, let alone improve weight or fitness. Living within walking distance of stores, restaurants and work will emerge as an all-around quality-of-life luxury. 24
  • 25. mPOS WILL DO TO CASH AND CARDS WHAT ONLINE DID TO BRICKS AND MORTAR 12 25
  • 26. mPOS WILL DO TO CASH AND CARDS WHAT ONLINE DID TO BRICKS AND MORTAR It has been almost two decades since the end of cash was seriously mooted. Since then, the world has moved onto the Internet and embraced online banking and e-commerce. Toting all that bulky loose change and an awkward wad of bank notes is sooooo last century, now that we can carry around a convenient wad of credit cards and debit cards and store cards, plus a little cash just in case. On second thought, those stacks of plastic cards are looking pretty last century, too. Check out the Kenyans. They’ve become world leaders in using cellphones for most of their financial transactions, from paying taxi drivers to transferring money. Now other countries are catching on to the idea of the mobile wallet, or mPOS. Over half of Americans (51 percent) believe that cash registers are just too old school. Cellphones are already serving as newspapers, music players, health trackers and destination finders; it’s a short step to using them for payments. 26
  • 27. THE YIN OF VIRTUAL LIVING DRIVING THE YANG OF HANDS-ON ACTIVITIES 13 27
  • 28. THE YIN OF VIRTUAL LIVING DRIVING THE YANG OF HANDS-ON ACTIVITIES It’s hard to imagine life without ever-present screens. American adults now spend an average of just over five hours a day with digital media devices and more than 4.5 hours with TV. In the U.K., it’s estimated that people spend over 11 hours a day on screens. Whether all that screen time is with TVs or digital devices, that’s a lot of static time when the hands are doing little more than typing, touching a screen or wielding a remote. It’s causing health concerns and driving a desire to engage in hands-on creative activities. Watch the spread of fabrication laboratories—“fab labs”—giving inventors, innovators, hackers and DIYers the tools to put bits and bytes to work in the real world of atoms. 28
  • 29. ARTISANAL EVERYTHING— COMBINING SAVOIR FAIRE WITH ENTREPRENEUR TO CREATE JOIE DE VIVRE 14 29
  • 30. ARTISANAL EVERYTHING— COMBINING SAVOIR FAIRE WITH ENTREPRENEUR TO CREATE JOIE DE VIVRE Sooner or later, the world gets around to adopting the best of French words and ideas. Despite popular legend and national stereotypes, the French do have a word for entrepreneur, which is a French word. Now the hottest Gallic meme is “artisanal,” which translates as “crafted” but with a certain je ne sais quoi that only a French concept can have. With its nuances of small-scale, traditional and patient expertise, it’s perfect for people who value authenticity and terroir over mass-produced blandness. There’s infinite scope for artisanal products. Anyone who can’t make the trip to France can check out Brooklyn, “ground zero of the artisanal-food universe” with its pickle beer and beef jerky. And anyone who can’t get to Brooklyn or San Francisco or Omaha or Portland can check out the possibilities for doing it themselves. Amazon has thousands of books on everything from baking bread and making cheese and chocolate to welding, making jewelry and building timber frames. And in case you were wondering, there’s nothing on artisanal trendspotting—yet. 30
  • 31. @havasprus 200 Madison Ave. New York, NY 10016 Marian Salzman, CEO E: marian.salzman@havasww.com C: +1 646-361-1837 T: @mariansalzman