Shining cities on a hill or lights under a bushel
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2015 Presentation to the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis at The Ohio State University.
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Shining cities on a hill or lights under a bushel
- 1. L AV E A B R A C H M A N J A N U A R Y 2 2 , 2 0 1 5 P R E S E N T A T I O N T O T H E C E N T E R F O R U R B A N A N D R E G I O N A L A N A L Y S I S T H E O H I O S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y
- 2. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER A non-partisan non-profit based in Columbus, Ohio that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio through policy and practice: • Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions • Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth
- 4. CENTRAL CHALLENGES How do we transform Ohio’s cities & regions for the next economy? • Rebuilding the city/ rebuilding market demand • Creating new economic engines • Building opportunity for the city’s population How are Ohio Cities Doing?
- 6. LEGACY CITIES Formerly industrial cities that have experienced significant population and/or job loss since 1960
- 7. LEGACY CITIES UPDATE: MIXED RETURNS 18 cities with population of at least 50,000 in 2010 & loss of at least 20% from peak 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Population Change 2000-2010 2000 2010
- 8. -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Detroit Cleveland Buffalo Birmingham Pittsburgh St.Louis Philadelphia Baltimore TOTAL 25-34 CITIES FOLLOW DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES Some legacy cities show signs of a turnaround, including Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Syracuse. (2000-2010) • Can we identify the factors that have led to greater regeneration in some cities? • Can we apply lessons of success (or failure) elsewhere? • What can cities do in an age of limited state and federal support? Change in (total & young adult) population between 2000- 2010
- 10. 1. REBUILDING THE PHYSICAL CITY & MARKET DEMAND Strategies that are making an impact: • Targeting resources in viable neighborhoods • Focusing on rebuilding the downtown • Repurposing vacant land for new uses
- 11. TARGETING RESOURCES IN VIABLE NEIGHBORHOODS Maximizes the impact of available scarce resources. Over-the-Rhine Cincinnati, Ohio Slavic Village Cleveland, Ohio Green and Gold Asset and Place-Based Investment Strategy Dayton, Ohio
- 12. TARGETED NEIGHBORHOOD PROGRESS Slavic Village Recovery in Cleveland: • Sales prices of the initial homes reached the targeted amount necessary to cover rehab costs and make a small $5,000-$10,000 profit; received an appraisal value above the listed $60,000 sale price. • Neighborhood morale is high and neighbors are positive about the project. • Investment is taking place in the neighborhood suggesting increased market confidence Slavic Village in Cleveland, Ohio
- 13. TARGETED NEIGHBORHOOD PROGRESS Cincinnati’s Over-the-Rhine: • Between 2000-2013, median household income has risen from $9,431 to $13,815, which is more than a 46% increase. • Between 2000-2013, owner occupancy has risen from 2.20% to 6.28%, which is more than a 185% increase. • Between 2007-2013, the percent of certified tax delinquent properties fell from 9.5% to 6.85%. • The poverty rate has fallen from, 76.00% in 1990, to 58.74% in 2000, to 33.78% in 2010.
- 14. TARGETED NEIGHBORHOOD PROGRESS Change in Income Distribution in Columbus’ Weinland Park from 2000-2012, compared to Benchmark Neighborhoods 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% WP, 2000 WP, 2012 Benchmark Neighborhoods $100,000 $75,000-$99,999 $50,000-$74,999 $35,000-$49,999 $25,000-$34,999 $15,000-$24,999 <$15,000 15.80% 18.90% 16.50% 7.60% 7.80% 10.60% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Vacancy Rate 1990 Vacancy Rate 2000 Vacancy Rate Estimated for 2012 Weinland Park City of Columbus Percent of housing vacancy in Weinland Park
- 15. FOCUSING ON REBUILDING THE DOWNTOWN Many cities are seeing downtown population growth 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Baltimore Cleveland St.Louis Cincinnati 2000 2010
- 16. FOCUSING ON REBUILDING THE DOWNTOWN Progress is being made in downtowns Ohio example: Downtown Cleveland Alliance Downtown Cleveland Alliance, a BID, is implementing Clean & Safe Program, economic development assistance, marketing & special events, advocacy and strategic projects. … leading to downtown redevelopment, attracting people & businesses
- 17. …BUT CONTINUED POPULATION LOSS 15% or greater population loss from 2000 to 2010 Population growth in Downtown area >15%
- 18. OVERALL POPULATION LOSS IN OHIO’S LEGACY CITIES…
- 19. Historic Building in the West End, Cincinnati, Ohio Photo from http://www.hamiltoncountylandbank.org/portfolio-items/1201-linn/ Hamilton County Land Reutilization Corporation currently accepting redevelopment proposals for the space. RE-PURPOSE VACANT LAND FOR NEW USES - Alternative/green uses - Brownfields to productive reuses - Land banks hold properties and clear delinquent taxes, liens
- 20. VACANCY RATES STILL INCREASING 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 2007 2012 Akron, OH Cincinnati, OH-- KY--IN Cleveland, OH Dayton, OH Detroit, MI Toledo, OH--MI Housing Vacancy Rates in Legacy Cities
- 21. 2. CREATING NEW ECONOMIC ENGINES FOR THE CITY AND REGION Strategies having an impact: • Leveraging Anchor Institutions • Building a Competitive Advantage • Regional regrowth
- 22. LEVERAGING ASSETS: ANCHOR INSTITUTIONS DRIVE DISPROPORTIONATE LEGACY CITY/NEIGHBORHOOD REGENERATION Wayne State University Detroit University Circle Inc. Cleveland
- 23. LEVERAGING ASSETS TO BUILD COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE - University Circle Cleveland, Ohio Cincinnati, Ohio Dayton, Ohio Uptown Consortium Dayton Tech Town
- 24. University Circle in Cleveland, Ohio: • Anchor district in Cleveland, Ohio with over 26 anchor institutions • $1.1 billion investment in the neighborhood leading to a 30:1 return • 5,000 new full-time jobs since 2005 (15.5% increase). An additional 8.6% increase expected by 2015. • $14 billion in overall annual economic output, according to University Circle Inc. • 11% population growth in University Circle while there was a 17% decline in overall city population Anchor District = vibrant city center, strong anchor institutions, multi-anchored district, community service corporations LEVERAGING ASSETS TO BUILD COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
- 25. Uptown Consortium in Cincinnati, Ohio • 6 anchor institutions • Established in 2004 and in 10 years has: • leveraged +$400 million in private development • Induced +$1 billion in development • Generated 3,300 jobs • Created and retained ~400,000 sq. feet of office and retail space • Developed 500+ residential units • 10% of Consortium members’ workforces live in Uptown LEVERAGING ASSETS TO BUILD COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
- 26. CITIES ARE EXPLORING OTHER ECONOMIC ENGINES ENTERTAINMENT AND TOURISM TECHNOLOGY What potential do these sectors have to generate job and business growth in legacy cities?
- 27. Cleveland Akron Canton Youngstown Lorain Northeast OHIO: five legacy cities embedded in a single region of over 5,000 mi2 ESTABLISHING REGIONAL INITIATIVES Urban centers are embedded in larger regions – need for greater regionalism
- 28. ESTABLISHING REGIONAL INITIATIVES Central Ohio’s insight2050
- 29. WHY REGIONS MATTER FOR ECONOMIC REGROWTH • Cities and their regions are economically interdependent • Collaborations and new governance structures can increase fiscal efficiency and economic attraction.
- 30. TOO MUCH LOCAL GOVERNMENT ADDS TO RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS 86% of states have fewer governments per 100 square miles than Ohio Source: Greater Ohio Policy Center, Census of Governments; Government Organization, 2007 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 14 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 <0 NumberofStates Number of Governments per 100 miles Ohio Less than Ohio (43)More than Ohio (6)
- 31. RISING LEGACY COSTS & DECLINING TAX BASE Ohio’s aging infrastructure: • It is estimated that Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water infrastructure over the next 20 years. • Federal consent decree to reduce the number of sanitary sewer overflows Tax base shrinking with population loss
- 32. 3. BUILDING OPPORTUNITY Challenges: • Many residents are not benefiting from regeneration • Neighborhoods in decline are disproportionately affecting low income populations • Remaining economic/racial disparities that bring down the rest of the region
- 33. LEGACY CITIES HAVE AN INCOME/POVERTY GAP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Camden Cleveland Detroit Gary SanFrancisco Seattle Portland Boston % below poverty level % more than 2X poverty % of population below poverty level compared to % of population in households earning 2X poverty level
- 34. LEGACY CITIES SHARE A JOBS/EDUCATION MISMATCH 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% Cleveland Detroit Newark SanFrancisco Seattle Portland Jobs in city Workers living in city All adults 25+ in city Share of jobs and workers with BA/BS or higher degree
- 35. RACIAL DISPARITIES IN INCOME ARE GROWING 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Baltimore Buffalo Cincinnati Cleveland Pittsburgh St. Louis White median Black median 2000 Black median 2011 Median income Of African-American Households as a Percentage of white Non-Latino median
- 36. CONCENTRATIONS OF POVERTY IN URBAN AREAS Example of equity challenge in Akron, Ohio Source: Brookings Institute
- 38. EDUCATED YOUNG ADULTS PREFER CITIES Share of city population that is 25-34 years old with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2000 and 2013. 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 2000 2013
- 39. NATIONALLY, LEGACY CITY POP GROWTH IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% Baltimore Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis City share of state population City share of 25-34 year old college graduates City share of 2000- 2011 INCREASE in 25- 34 year old college graduates
- 40. OHIO CITIES MUST DO MORE TO ATTRACT & RETAIN YOUNG PROFESSIONALS Number of 25-34 year olds with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2000 and 2013. 1,192 1,512 3,970 7,228 10,153 12,535 996 1,451 4,104 7,090 7,719 13,774 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Youngstown 0% Canton 0.1% Dayton 0.4% Akron 0.1% Toledo -0.8% Cleveland 0.9% 2000 YP population 2013 YP population Change in share of population:
- 41. OPPORTUNITY TO LEVERAGE & ATTRACT THIS POPULATION • Some legacy cities are attracting increasing numbers of Millennials • Ohio’s cities will need to do more to attract this population in order to compete • What are the barriers? What still needs to be done?
- 43. STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE • Rebuild the central core Making job and population growth in the core foster citywide regeneration • Sustain viable neighborhoods Sustaining neighborhoods facing demographic and economic challenges • Repurpose vacant land for new uses Utilizing the city’s inventory of vacant land and buildings for regeneration • Use assets to build competitive advantage Creating sustainable economic growth based on assets
- 44. STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE • Use economic growth to increase community and resident well-being Overcoming forces leading to increased economic and racial inequalities • Build stronger local governance and partnerships Creating multifaceted public/private partnerships capable of driving sustained regeneration • Increase the ties between cities and their regions Building effective regional linkages to foster stronger economic growth throughout a region
- 45. BUILDING AN URBAN STATE POLICY AGENDA IS PIVOTAL Conceptually – align state policy and local action; leverage and incentivize private market investment Leading examples: • Brownfields Cleanup Fund (grants/loans) • Land banks • Expedited foreclosure • Historic tax credits • Neighborhood assistance program tax credits • Assess ODOT funding priorities • Promoting public-private partnerships for funding infrastructure
- 46. Lavea Brachman, Executive Director, Greater Ohio Policy Center lbrachman@greaterohio.org
- 47. STRATEGIES • Make change happen through strategic incrementalism • taking incremental steps grounded in a coherent vision of the future • Consider a special paradigm for smaller/medium-sized cities: • Distinguish between those that are too big to fail and others
Editor's Notes
- Introduction: a check in and framing the next generation of strategies Explain the reference – We have great urban places in Ohio and we’re not letting them shine [without an urban agenda]
- Columbus-based, statewide organization Promote public policy to grow Ohio’s economy and improve Ohioans’ quality of life through sustainable land use and growth Non-partisan, non-profit, foundation-funded
- Restoring Prosperity: 3 year partnership with Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program A statewide blueprint for Ohio’s transition to the next economy Action plan to influence state policy: 39 pragmatic policy recommendations
- Define legacy cities to provide context
- Summarize study of 18 LCs (4 showing signs of turnaround: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Syracuse) Other indicators used to rank relative strength of the 18 selected legacy cities: Unemployment rate Percent with BA/BS degree or higher Crime rate Percent foreign born population Population loss from peak to 2010 Population change 2000-2010 Percent of population in poverty Household dependency ratio Median house sales price Change in median house price 2006-2010 Mortgage ratio Housing vacancy rate Grad students as percent of city population Total research funding Change in number of jobs 2002-2009
- Add: Pittsburgh and Philly appear more successful according to other indicators such as unemployment and income
- How have legacy cities done so far?
- Reframe around? Rebuilding the city/ rebuilding market demand Creating new economic engines Building opportunity for the city’s population How are Ohio’s cities and regions doing? What can they improve?
- In 2003, the City of Cincinnati partnered with local private corporations to form the Cincinnati Center City Development Corporation (3CDC), a non-profit that could lead the revitalization of the area. 3CDC has focused on acquiring and rehabilitating abandoned properties within a 110 square block area of Over-the-Rhine. As a result, over 90% of the rehabilitated residential and commercial spaces are now occupied.
- Dayton’s Green and Gold Investment Strategy: A strategic land reutilization and investment vision for Dayton. It is a market-sensitive vision and strategy to guide the aligned actions of Dayton with 1) a linked, asset/place-based economic, neighborhood, and community development strategy, and 2) density reduction, strategic demolition, and reuse to respond to the shifting market dynamics.
- Early positive indicators: The sale price of the initial homes reached the target amount of approximately $60,000, received an appraisal value above the sale price, and sold quickly. As reported by Slavic Village CDC, the SVR Project Director, and the first homebuyer, community members are offering positive feedback. Investment is taking place in the neighborhood apart from direct involvement with SVR.
- Over-the-Rhine also on slide 13 for 3CDC as anchor, but this has data on improvement
- Weinland Park: As the neighborhood has been improving in these other areas, more residents have chosen to stay in the neighborhood rather than move out. Weinland Park is beginning to become a “neighborhood of choice.” Nhood turnarounds – Cincinnati x neighborhoods - CNP Model block in Akron Youngstown Small towns?
- Downtown Cleveland Alliance is a BID: Downtown Cleveland Alliance works hand-in-hand with Downtown stakeholders to enhance the quality of life in NEO's urban core by implementing initiatives like the Clean & Safe Program, economic development assistance, marketing & special events, advocacy and strategic projects. Funding is provided by Downtown Cleveland's property owners who have jointly agreed to a special assessment to be used to augment services. This is not a tax and funding does not take the place of tax-funded initiatives. Funding is an investment made to enhance the growth and development of Downtown Cleveland. Data on downtown – Downtown Cleveland’s residential population reached an all-time high of 12,500 people in 2014
- (Don’t need earlier slides on vacancy – will just be duplicative)
- Reframe around? Rebuilding the city/ rebuilding market demand Creating new economic engines Building opportunity for the city’s population How are Ohio’s cities and regions doing? What can they improve?
- 11% population growth in University Circle while there was a 17% decline in overall city population Midtown booming around Wayne State
- Overall for LCs: Demonstrating sustained efforts, while sometimes scattershot. Local and state role (Third Frontier). UCI: “Anchor district” - University Circle is a flashpoint square-mile of educational, health care, arts, cultural, religious and social service institutions. Revival is being led by strong magnet institutions in multi-anchored districts, like University Circle. These districts create a shared value by embracing interdependencies with community. Akron keys to success: strong leadership, vision and planning, cross-sector partnerships, leverage place (from Brookings report) “The Austen BioInnovation Institute Center of Excellence in Akron is a collaboration of University System of Ohio partners focused on patient-centered innovation and commercialization at the intersection of biomaterials and medicine. A unique feature of this Center is the strategic alignment of institutional, state, federal and philanthropic support. This, accompanied with Akron's rich legacy in industrial and materials science, will pioneer the next generation of life-enhancing and life saving innovation that will transform Akron and the surrounding region into a model for biomedical discovery and enterprise.” Dayton Tech Town: Dayton, Ohio's premier technology-oriented campus is designed to support the application, commercialization, and convergence of cutting-edge technologies. Tech Town is also located within Dayton's Aerospace Hub of Innovation & Opportunity –a designation that is creating state-supported projects for companies within the hub that develop aerospace and advanced materials technologies.
- University Circle is a neighborhood located on the east side of Cleveland, Ohio. It is best known for its world-class cultural, educational and medical institutions, including Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland Institute of Music, Cleveland Institute of Art, Cleveland Museum of Art, Museum of Contemporary Art Cleveland, Cleveland Orchestra, Lakeview Cemetery, and University Hospitals/Case Medical Center. University Circle is a flashpoint square-mile of educational, health care, arts, cultural, religious and social service institutions. Revival is being led by strong magnet institutions in multi-anchored districts, like University Circle. These districts create a shared value by embracing interdependencies with community.
- Uptown Consortium: Univ of Cincinnati; Univ of Cincinnati Health; Cincinnati Children’s Hospital; TriHealth; Cincinnati Zoo
- Located in Dayton’s Aerospace Hub of Innovation & Opportunity – a designation that creates state-supported projects for companies within the hub TOTAL direct and indirect JOBS ASSOCIATED WITH TECHTOWN: 798 (280 are ongoing jobs, ie. New businesses on cleaned site) ROI 2.3 private : 1 public dollar TOTAL 1-time state and local taxes: $2,333,388 TOTAL ANNUAL state and local taxes on ongoing (new)operations: 1,375,989 Dayton, Ohio's premier technology-oriented campus is designed to support the application, commercialization, and convergence of cutting-edge technologies. Tech Town is also located within Dayton's Aerospace Hub of Innovation & Opportunity –a designation that is creating state-supported projects for companies within the hub that develop aerospace and advanced materials technologies. To date, around $40.8 million invested in Tech Town Tech Town in Dayton, which leveraged CORF funds and built on a BF but is connected with UD and Wright Patterson Air Force base. Again the fewer words the better on the slide - a map showing the location of TT, DT Dayton, and WPAFB and perhaps a few bullets with public investment from C CORF and amount of private $$ that it leveraged, with no. of private companies.
- Export strategy
- insight2050 is a collaborative initiative among MORPC, Columbus 2020, ULI Columbus, and a stakeholder committee consisting of public and private partners. The initiative aims to help Central Ohio communities proactively plan for development and population growth over the next 30+ years, which is expected to be dramatically different from the past. The first phase of insight2050 is a regional analysis that provides data for decision makers to understand the impact of future land use policies on specific factors influencing the region’s quality of life. The Scenario Results Report is now available online at www.getinsight2050.org. The regional growth scenarios that reflect different types of development patterns were informed by the latest data and projections and then compared utilizing a variety of metrics, such as land consumption, infrastructure costs, air pollution, household expenses for transportation and utilities, as well as public health and safety costs, to arrive at an assessment of their relative impacts.
- Ohio cities, large and small, must address the critical behind-the-scenes challenge of modernizing their water and sewer infrastructure to avoid potential serious public health crises and environmental degradation, and to create capacity to attract and support businesses and residents. However, Ohio’s cities are struggling to find ways to finance the complicated infrastructure overhauls needed to address these challenges, comply with federal mandates, and even support on-going maintenance. In fact, it is estimated that Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water infrastructure over the next 20 years. PLUG FOR OUR SUMMIT: Panelists will discuss the scope of these infrastructure challenges along with innovative financing approaches and sustainable solutions necessary for Ohio’s cities to function smoothly and accommodate regrowth. Green infrastructure examples: Cincinnati - Cleveland - NEORSD including green infrastructure in water and sewer system Philadelphia -
- Reframe around? Rebuilding the city/ rebuilding market demand Creating new economic engines Building opportunity for the city’s population How are Ohio’s cities and regions doing? What can they improve?
- Compare Ohio cities to national cities Not all our cities are leveraging this trend - this makes the case for an urban agenda in Ohio
- Raw number of 25 to 34 y/o with college degrees in six Ohio cities in 2000 and 2013. Percentages next to each city name denote change in share of total city population.
- THIS IS AN OUTLINE/INTRO FOR THE SECTION (THE BULLETS MATCH THE TITLES ON SUBSEQUENT SLIDES) Transition language: many of these are about leveraging assets
- Strategic Incrementalism: A process of taking incremental steps grounded in a coherent vision of the future, anchored by market reality and local knowledge, implemented by targeting investment to further the vision. Plans and projects generally reflect incremental thinking. Strategic incrementalism requires transformative thinking.