1. Climate change as problem of
national and international security
rather than environmental issue
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
former IPCC WG2 vicechair

2. ”The Squeeze” Human growth
20/80 dilemma
Climate Ecosystems
550/450/350 60 % loss dilemma
dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma

3. Climate change is not isolated from other problems:
the importance of converging trends
• Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to
a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
• Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and
resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs
will increase by more than 50%.
• Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s
population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city
populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
• Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors

4. Key Questions
Increased demand 1. Can 9 billion people be
50% by 2030 (IEA)
fed equitably, healthily
Energy and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the
Climate future demands on
water?
Change
Food Water 3. Can we provide enough
Increased demand Increased demand energy to supply the
50% by 2030 30% by 2030 growing population
(FAO) (IFPRI) coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and
adapt to climate change?
Biodiversity 5. Can we do all this in the
context of redressing the
decline in biodiversity and
The Perfect Storm? preserving ecosystems?
(Beddington, 2009)

5. Climate Change
• Is the climate change an environmental issue or
becomes to be a threat to international peace
and security?

6. Global temperature rise
PROBLEMATIC
+2°
• 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress
• Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes
• Increased coastal flooding and storms
• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw
DISASTROUS
+4°
• A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic
• 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress
• Widespread coral mortality; risk of major
extinctions around the globe
• Substantial global impact on major crops
• Long-term prospect of sea level rise

7. Risks in key sectors
Agriculture:
Water: decresing water Decreasing agricultural
availability, changes in production, economic
precipitation, melting of glaciers, decline, more
extreme weather events, unempoyment, food
increasing competition of shortages, increasing
demand competition of demand
Climate change Urban space
Energy
Infrastru
Food Water cture Governance
transport
Land use
Infrastructure,
energy supply and transport:
environmental change due to
climate change increases Urbanisation: Increasing disaster
running costs (damages, risks, health risks, growing
flooding etc) or reduces population dynamics, growing
energy production (hydro) slums

8. The water conflict scenario
• The scarcity of water is
replacing oil as a flashpoint for
conflict between nations in an
increasingly urbanized world
• The danger of international
competition for adequate water
resources will grow inevitably.
The increased demand for
water could produce intense
competition for this essential
substance
http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-
worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

9. Climate change effects & migration:
Hotspots & Trajectories
Main
trajectories
WGBU 2007 (modified)

10. Climate Change as a Threat
Climate change
• is a threat multiplier
• will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many
societies
• increases number and intensity of conflicts and
reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
• leads to new lines of conflict in the international
arena

11. A Multiplier for Instability
Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts

12. National Security – Climate change linkages
• Climate change could trigger national and
international distributional conflicts and
intensify problems already hard to manage
such as state failure, the erosion of social
order, and rising violence
• Climate change will degrade human security
and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters,
food insecurity, energy poverty etc.

13. Recommendation for states policies
• In every country National Security Strategy should directly
address the threat of climate change to the state’s national
security interests.
• Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme
weather events
• Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other
institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.

14. Conclusions
• There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly
disaster prevention through good governance, human rights,
de-marginalization and empowerment
• Conflict prevention regarding climate change means
mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy
must be put into operation
• Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-
change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security,
water and food security