Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Climate change as problem ofnational and international securityrather than environmental issue                          Lu...
”The Squeeze”    Human growth                 20/80 dilemma       Climate                   Ecosystems   550/450/350      ...
Climate change is not isolated from other problems:the importance of converging trends   • Population dynamics: Until 2050...
Key Questions                   Increased demand                 1. Can 9 billion people be                   50% by 2030 ...
Climate Change • Is the climate change an environmental issue or   becomes to be a threat to international peace   and sec...
Global temperature rise         PROBLEMATIC+2°         • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress         • Impac...
Risks in key sectors                                                                           Agriculture:Water: decresin...
The water conflict scenario                                                                    •   The scarcity of water i...
Climate change effects & migration:            Hotspots & Trajectories                                            Main    ...
Climate Change as a Threat  Climate change  • is a threat multiplier  • will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many  ...
A Multiplier for InstabilityWater Scarcity   Demography   Crop Decline   Hunger   Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts
National Security – Climate change linkages  • Climate change could trigger national and    international distributional c...
Recommendation for states policies • In every country National Security Strategy should directly   address the threat of c...
Conclusions  • There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly    disaster prevention through good governanc...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, former IPCC WG2 vicechair

2,870 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, former IPCC WG2 vicechair

  1. 1. Climate change as problem ofnational and international securityrather than environmental issue Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia former IPCC WG2 vicechair
  2. 2. ”The Squeeze” Human growth 20/80 dilemma Climate Ecosystems 550/450/350 60 % loss dilemma dilemma Surprise 99/1 dilemma
  3. 3. Climate change is not isolated from other problems:the importance of converging trends • Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people. • Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%. • Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia. • Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
  4. 4. Key Questions Increased demand 1. Can 9 billion people be 50% by 2030 (IEA) fed equitably, healthily Energy and sustainably? 2. Can we cope with the Climate future demands on water? Change Food Water 3. Can we provide enough Increased demand Increased demand energy to supply the 50% by 2030 30% by 2030 growing population (FAO) (IFPRI) coming out of poverty? 4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? Biodiversity 5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and The Perfect Storm? preserving ecosystems?(Beddington, 2009)
  5. 5. Climate Change • Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?
  6. 6. Global temperature rise PROBLEMATIC+2° • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress • Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw DISASTROUS+4° • A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic • 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress • Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe • Substantial global impact on major crops • Long-term prospect of sea level rise
  7. 7. Risks in key sectors Agriculture:Water: decresing water Decreasing agriculturalavailability, changes in production, economicprecipitation, melting of glaciers, decline, moreextreme weather events, unempoyment, foodincreasing competition of shortages, increasingdemand competition of demand Climate change Urban space Energy Infrastru Food Water cture Governance transport Land useInfrastructure,energy supply and transport:environmental change due toclimate change increases Urbanisation: Increasing disasterrunning costs (damages, risks, health risks, growingflooding etc) or reduces population dynamics, growingenergy production (hydro) slums
  8. 8. The water conflict scenario • The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world • The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substancehttp://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://
  9. 9. Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories Main trajectoriesWGBU 2007 (modified)
  10. 10. Climate Change as a Threat Climate change • is a threat multiplier • will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies • increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution • leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena
  11. 11. A Multiplier for InstabilityWater Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts
  12. 12. National Security – Climate change linkages • Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence • Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.
  13. 13. Recommendation for states policies • In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests. • Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events • Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.
  14. 14. Conclusions • There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment • Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation • Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate- change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security

×