Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, former IPCC WG2 vicechair
Climate change as problem ofnational and international securityrather than environmental issue Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia former IPCC WG2 vicechair
”The Squeeze” Human growth 20/80 dilemma Climate Ecosystems 550/450/350 60 % loss dilemma dilemma Surprise 99/1 dilemma
Climate change is not isolated from other problems:the importance of converging trends • Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people. • Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%. • Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia. • Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
Key Questions Increased demand 1. Can 9 billion people be 50% by 2030 (IEA) fed equitably, healthily Energy and sustainably? 2. Can we cope with the Climate future demands on water? Change Food Water 3. Can we provide enough Increased demand Increased demand energy to supply the 50% by 2030 30% by 2030 growing population (FAO) (IFPRI) coming out of poverty? 4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? Biodiversity 5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and The Perfect Storm? preserving ecosystems?(Beddington, 2009)
Climate Change • Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?
Global temperature rise PROBLEMATIC+2° • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress • Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw DISASTROUS+4° • A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic • 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress • Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe • Substantial global impact on major crops • Long-term prospect of sea level rise
Risks in key sectors Agriculture:Water: decresing water Decreasing agriculturalavailability, changes in production, economicprecipitation, melting of glaciers, decline, moreextreme weather events, unempoyment, foodincreasing competition of shortages, increasingdemand competition of demand Climate change Urban space Energy Infrastru Food Water cture Governance transport Land useInfrastructure,energy supply and transport:environmental change due toclimate change increases Urbanisation: Increasing disasterrunning costs (damages, risks, health risks, growingflooding etc) or reduces population dynamics, growingenergy production (hydro) slums
The water conflict scenario • The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world • The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substancehttp://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://
Climate Change as a Threat Climate change • is a threat multiplier • will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies • increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution • leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena
A Multiplier for InstabilityWater Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts
National Security – Climate change linkages • Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence • Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.
Recommendation for states policies • In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests. • Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events • Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.
Conclusions • There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment • Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation • Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate- change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security