Global Strategic Outlook by Dr. Mohamed Ait Kadi

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Global Strategic Outlook by Dr. Mohamed Ait Kadi

  1. 1. Consulting Partners Meeting Port of Spain, Trinidad, 28 June 2014 GLOBAL STRATEGIC OUTLOOK Water Security & Growth Futures Dr Mohamed Ait Kadi Chair GWP Technical Committee
  2. 2. Plan of this talk 1. What are the impacts of water insecurity/security on the growth futures? 2. How can we enable effective and sustainable use of water resources? • Conclusion
  3. 3. « As the global economy grows, so will its thirst. This is not an issue of rich or poor, north or south. All regions are experiencing the problem of water stress. There is still enough water for all of us – but only so long as we keep it clean, use it more wisely and share it fairely. Gouvernements must engage and lead, and the private sector also has a role to play in this effort.. » Ban Ki-Moon Secretary – General UN, New York
  4. 4. Plan of this talk 1. What are the impacts of water insecurity/security on the growth futures? 2. How can we enable effective and sustainable use of water resources? • Conclusion
  5. 5. Mohamed Ait Kadi GWP/TEC 5 Thomas Malthus 1766 - 1834
  6. 6. M. AIT-KADI « Thirst for water & Hunger for Land »
  7. 7. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1990 2025 Africa World Asia MENA ‘000 m3
  8. 8. In the 20th Century, Population Grew Three-fold, But Water Use Grew Six-fold! 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Km3 Year Business As Usual DomDmd IndDmd LvstkDmd IrriDmd. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Km3 Year Optimistic DomDmd IndDmd LvstkDmd IrriDmd.
  9. 9. Limits to Growth Conclusion in 1972 “If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to (physical) growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.”
  10. 10. Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian Presentation
  11. 11. Already today, water-scarce regions account for 36% of global population (2.5 Bn) and 22% of global GDP (9.4 trillion USD) 11 How many people live in water short areas (%)? How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions (%)? > 50 < 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 No data > 40% 20 - 40% 0 - 20% 2010 36 18 46 > 40% 0 - 20% 19 22 2010 20 - 40% 59 2010 SOURCE: IFPRI 2.5 Bn people 9.4 trillion USD2 Water stress, percent of total renewable water withdrawn 1 >40% water stress 2 Year 2000 prices
  12. 12. If we are to ensure sustained economic growth, human security and political stability over the next decades how we manage water is becoming an urgent issue for our societies !!
  13. 13. 13 Both supply and demand pressures lead to water stress and associated risks Demand pressures Supply pressures ▪ Population growth – direct – Increased domestic / urban use – Increased food demand ▪ Economic growth – – Increased urban water use – Increased industrial water use – More water-intensive diets ▪ Climate change – Increased crop water demand – More reservoir evaporation ▪ Spatial / temporal mismatch between supply and demand ▪ More expensive supply curve to transport water ▪ Continued water quality deterioration ▪ Climate change pressures – Reduced availability with increased intensity – Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events damage to infrastructure & unreliable supply – In some cases, decline in renewable water Localized ground water overdraft Pressures on ecosystems (quantity and quality impacts) Impact on cost and viability of activities, and increased competition across water- using sectors Economic / political conflict Impacts of Water Stress Risk to growth! 13
  14. 14. Core question on “water and growth” futures Given the imperative of water for underpinning growth…  …to what extent can gains in efficiency and water productivity (output per drop) enable higher levels of growth? Water demand (growth drivers) Water supply Water stress and risk to growth! CR-IFPRI
  15. 15. Synergies between Water Securtiy and Green Growth Characteristics of Green Growth Characteristics of Water Security  Ensure enough water for social and economic development  Ensure adequate water for maintaining eco-systems  Sustainable water availability for future generations  Balance the intrinsic value of water with its uses for human survival and welfare  Harness productive power of water  Minimise the destructive power of water  Maintain water quality and avoid pollution and degradation 15 More effective use of natural resources in economic growth Valuing eco-systems Inter-generational economic policies Increased use of renewable sources of energy Protection of vital assets from climate related disasters Reduce waste of resources – and finance
  16. 16. Under business-as-usual water productivity and medium growth, 52% of population and 45% of GDP are in regions at risk due to water stress 16 > 40% 20 - 40% 0 - 20% 2050 52 16 32 2010 36 18 46 > 40% 20 - 40% 0 - 20% 2050 45 25 30 2010 22 19 59 Business as usual (BAU) water productivity, medium growth, 2050 1 >40% water stress 2 Year 2000 prices SOURCE: IFPRI; team analysis How many people live in water short areas? How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions? ▪ 4.7 Bn people, 70% of 2010 pop. ▪ Increase by 90% compared to 2010 ▪ 63 trillion USD2 1.5 x 2010 total GDP ▪ Increase by 570% compared to 2010 Water stress, percent of total renewable water withdrawn > 50 30 - 40 40 - 50< 20 20 - 30 No data
  17. 17. In a “blue world”, water stress can be substantially reduced, with ~1 Bn people and 17 trillion USD2 GDP coming from less water scarce areas1 17 "Blue" high-productivity scenario medium growth, 2050 SOURCE: IFPRI; team analysis Water stress, percent of total renewable water withdrawn > 40% 20 - 40% 0 - 20% 2050- Blue 38 2050- BAU 41 21 16 32 52 38 2050- BAU 33 2050- Blue 45 25 30 28 > 40% 20 - 40% 0 - 20% How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions? ▪ Decrease of 11% to BAU ▪ 1 Bn peo- ple in less scarce regions ▪ Decrease 12% com- pared to 2010 ▪ 17,000 Bn USD2 in less scarce regions How many people live in water short areas? > 50 < 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 No data 1 >40% water stress 2 Based on year 2000 prices
  18. 18. Plan of this talk 1. What are the impacts of water insecurity/security on the growth futures? 2. How can we enable effective and sustainable use of water resources? • Conclusion
  19. 19. New Enabling Environment & Instruments • Policy instruments that promote complementarities (economic, social, env); & leverage change • Fiscal instruments: measures that give a price to environmental goods • Strengthened institutional arrangements that function within increasing complexity, cutting across sectoral silos and sovereign boundaries. • A new generation of financial instruments that share risk between governments and investors; make new technology affordable • Skills development: a new and evolving set of skills to support water management reforms • Information and monitoring: set targets, define trajectories and gather the right information to monitor progress (eg . Water security indicators) • Innovation planning: increasing water productivity… 19 Mohamed Ait Kadi GWP/TEC
  20. 20. Plan of this talk 1. What are the impacts of water insecurity/security on the growth futures? 2. How can we enable effective and sustainable use of water resources • Conclusion
  21. 21. Conclusion  The size of today’s water security challenge should not be underestimated.  While the scale and complexity of this multidimensional challenge are huge, solutions are within reach.  Understanding the connectivity between the multiple dimensions of water security is a critical step in effective policy design, policy implementation, and consensus building.
  22. 22. Thank You!!!

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