PANEL 4THE COST OF CAPTURE: PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITIESAnne Margrete Blaker and Stale Aakenes – Gassnova SFGeorge Booras – ...
The Costs of Capture: Progress               and Opportunity          GCCSI Annual Meeting             Calgary, Alberta, C...
Introduction• IPCC 2007: Max GHG 450 ppm for +2°C scenario   ⇒ reduce massively CO2 emissions in Power Gen                ...
Introduction   Alstom Cost of Electricity study on CCSCCS experience: 16 pilots/demos                                     ...
CCS Cost of Electricity study Main assumptions                    Reference plants: Coal & Lignite (without CCS)          ...
Hardcoal CCS power plant Energy Penalty (EP)                                                                             (...
Hardcoal CCS power plant      CoE base case (with T&S, without CO2 price)CoE €/MWh net                              EUR   ...
Hardcoal CCS power plant   Fuel, Capex/Opex and T&S contribution in CoE                                                   ...
CCS Cost of Electricity study Main assumptions        Gas Reference Combined-Cycle Power Plants (without CCS)             ...
Gas Combined Cycle CCS Power Plant      CoE base case (with T&S, without CO2 price)CoE €/MWh net                          ...
Gas Combined Cycle CCS Power Plant Fuel contribution in CoE                 € / MWh net                                   ...
CCS competitiveness against other low      carbon alternatives in Europe in 2012-17                CoE Low Carbon technolo...
Technology and Scale    •          CCS technology is proven and is technologically feasible.    •         CCCS is not comm...
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Global CCS Institute - Day 2 - Panel 4 - The Cost of Capture: Progress and Opportunities

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Robert Hilton - Alstom

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Global CCS Institute - Day 2 - Panel 4 - The Cost of Capture: Progress and Opportunities

  1. 1. PANEL 4THE COST OF CAPTURE: PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITIESAnne Margrete Blaker and Stale Aakenes – Gassnova SFGeorge Booras – EPRIRobert Hilton – AlstomDon Wharton – TransAlta
  2. 2. The Costs of Capture: Progress and Opportunity GCCSI Annual Meeting Calgary, Alberta, Canada Robert G. Hilton October 11, 2012
  3. 3. Introduction• IPCC 2007: Max GHG 450 ppm for +2°C scenario ⇒ reduce massively CO2 emissions in Power Gen  Efficiency increase EUROPE - MtCO2 - 2035 New Policies Scenario  Nuclear & Renewables and 450 Scenario (IEA-WEO 2011)  CCS on Fossil plants COAL GAS 449• CCS necessary because: 397  2035: >50% of W-W TWh still fossil  Fossil will remain strong until ~2050 159  IEA WEO: - 2,7 GtCO2 CCS in 2035 81  CCS on Coal and Gas NPS 450 NPS 450 CCS needed on both Coal and Gas. Will it be competitive ? CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P3should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  4. 4. Introduction Alstom Cost of Electricity study on CCSCCS experience: 16 pilots/demos Plant integration experience (supply of turnkey power plants) Alstom know-how for a solid CoE study on CCS PP Component manufacturer CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P4should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  5. 5. CCS Cost of Electricity study Main assumptions Reference plants: Coal & Lignite (without CCS) EUR NAM SEA Fuel type Bituminous Raw Lignite Dried Lignite PRB coal Bituminous Fuel heating value KJ/Kg LHV 24 930 10 278 21 283 20 425 20 896 Carbon content UB mass% 65% 31% 57% 56% 53% Fuel price 2011 Euro/t 78,2 24,3 24,3 25,7 53,4 Euro/GJ 3,14 2,37 2,13 1,26 2,56 Cycle argt 2020/30 bar/°C/°C 300b/600/620°C 272b/600/605°C 300b/600/620°C 300b/600/620°C 300b/600/620°C Cooling type °C 13°C - Direct C 18°C - Direct C 18°C - Direct C 19°C - CT 28°C - Direct C Net Output MWe net 837 1 000 1 000 837 837 Net eff. 15/20/30 % LHV 46.2/48/48.4 % 44/-/- % w HR 47,6/48,8/49 % 44/46.2/46.7 % 41/42.7/43 % EPC 2015/20/30 €/KW net 1421/1518/1518 1583/-/- 2070/2200/2200 1612/1722/1722 814/869/869 • Base case at 7450 hrs per a. plus sensitivity analysis • Performance improvement considered (e.g. double reheat ST) • Cycle arrangement in 2020/30: 300b-600°C-620°C Realistic set of assumptions by region CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P5should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  6. 6. Hardcoal CCS power plant Energy Penalty (EP) (Ref PP net MWe – CCS PP net MWe) Energy penalty (EP) = (Ref PP net MWe) EUR & NAM SEA Note : 90% capture of CCS PP CO2 emission, CCS plant and Reference plant at same net Performance improvement and cooling temperature impacts CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P6should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  7. 7. Hardcoal CCS power plant CoE base case (with T&S, without CO2 price)CoE €/MWh net EUR CoE €/MWh net NAM CoE €/MWh net SEA90 90 90 73,5 €/MWh Oxy Oxy80 (Post) 80 Post 80 Post Ref PP Ref PP70 Oxy 70 70 Post +45%60 Ref PP (Post) 60 60 64 €/MWh 62 €/MWh50 50 (Post) 50 (Post)40 40 4030 30 30 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 • All with T&S, on-shore saline aquifer: impact on CoE: 4,8 to 7,2 €/MWh net EUR 2032: CCS => +45% increase in CoE; NAM/SEA: lower CoE CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012 © ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P7 should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  8. 8. Hardcoal CCS power plant Fuel, Capex/Opex and T&S contribution in CoE CoE Ref Plant & Incremental CCS in 2032 € / MWh net 100 T&S 90 Fuel 73,5 80 +45% Capex+Opex 70 64 62 60 50,5 50 40,5 40 40 30 20 10 0 REF POST REF POST REF POST EUR NAM SEAHigh capex, expensive coal Cheap coal, lower efficiency Low Capex, expensive coal Regional differences in Fuel, Capex/Opex costs CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012 © ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P8 should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  9. 9. CCS Cost of Electricity study Main assumptions Gas Reference Combined-Cycle Power Plants (without CCS) EUR NAM SEA Fuel type Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Fuel heating value KJ/Kg LHV 50 000 50 000 50 000 Carbon content mass% 75% 75% 75% Fuel price 2011 Euro/GJ 7,2 2,8 3,8 (subs.) Cycle argt 2020/30 1-1 SS 2-1 MS 1-1 SS Cooling type °C 13°C - Direct C 19°C - CT 28°C - Direct C Net Output 15/20/30 MWe net 600/650/700 850/900/950 538/583/628 Net eff. 15/20/30 % LHV 61/62/63 % 60/61/62 % 60/61/62 % EPC cost 15/20/30 €/KW net 558/544/529 452/441/429 473/461/449 • Base case combined cycle at 6570 hrs per a. • Performance improvement considered Combined cycles realistic set of assumptions CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P9should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  10. 10. Gas Combined Cycle CCS Power Plant CoE base case (with T&S, without CO2 price)CoE €/MWh net EUR CoE €/MWh net NAM CoE €/MWh net SEA80 80 80 COE - EUROPE COE - NAM COE - ASIA75 75 75 68,5 €/ MWh ) Post FGR, 90% capt70 70 Post FGR, 90% capt 70 Ref plant65 65 Ref plant 6560 Ref plant +28% 60 6055 55 5550 50 5045 Post FGR, 90% capt 45 4540 Ref plant 40 40 Ref plant +32%35 35 3530 30 Ref plant +42% 3025 25 25 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 • Gas price at 7,2 Euro/GJ • Lowest gas price at 2,8 €/GJ • Subsidized gas price 3,8 €/GJ => offsets Capex advantage • -5 % reduction with FGR Note : 90% capture of CCS PP CO2 emissions, CCS plant net output de-rated vs Reference plant (energy penalty) Difference in gas price between regions drives CoE level CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012 © ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P 10 should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  11. 11. Gas Combined Cycle CCS Power Plant Fuel contribution in CoE € / MWh net CoE Ref Plant & Incremental CCS in 2032 100 Fuel 90 Capex+O&M+T&S 80 68,5 +28% 70 60 53,6 45,4 50 37,7 +32% +42% 40 34,4 26,6 30 20 10 0 REF POST REF POST REF POST EUR NAM SEA Smaller % increase in CoE than for coal due to higher fuel cost contribution CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P 11should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  12. 12. CCS competitiveness against other low carbon alternatives in Europe in 2012-17 CoE Low Carbon technologies – New PP over next 5 years Up to 45€ cents/kWh€ / MWh300 EUROPE 300250 250 Reference case200 200150 150 Low case CSP Tower100 with storage 100 86 79 50 (82 for Ref 50 CCS Oxy) 0 0 Hardcoal w Gas CCPP Nuclear Hydro Geo- Wind Wind Solar Solar PV CCS Post w CCS thermal Onshore Offshore Thermal 2017 2017 Source : Alstom analysis 2012. CCS w Post amine 2017 costs, including on shore T&S & CO2 price (Flue Gas Recirculation for CCS Gas CC) CoE do not include “externalities” of Intermittent power (Back-up cost, balancing cost, grid enhancement if required) Under realistic assumptions and with a conservative variation range, CCS is already in the “mix” of low carbon alternatives CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012 © ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P 12 should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  13. 13. Technology and Scale • CCS technology is proven and is technologically feasible. • CCCS is not commercially available as it has not been demonstrated at commercial power plant scale • Demonstration at commercial scale is critical to define risks, optimize process and achieve cost reduction to support commercial contracting • The CCS technology requires both policy direction and financial support to be demonstrated at commercial scale • CCS could be competitive on a level playing field in a free market • EOR will help close the gap on financing particularly on early move projects. • Other products may be helpful depending on markets • Stronger Governmental support is required CoE of coal & gas CCS power plants – 14 June 2012© ALSTOM 2012. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or P 13should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercialcircumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties without
  14. 14. www.alstom.com
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