The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

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The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points: …

The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points:
* Social Networks are the Next Broadcasters
* The world's OS is changing: from closed to open
* What does a Social OS look like?
* Copyright Gridlock
* The global social brain
* Socially augmented reality
* The extreme reputation economy... and much more

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  • 1. The next 5 years in Social Media ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard 1
  • 2. First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me. Knowledge grows when shared 2
  • 3. The World’s Operating System is Morphing 3
  • 4. Not Social 4
  • 5. Business Marketing Social Not Social Advertising Content & Media Communication Education Politics 5
  • 6. Social A new, social OS Not Social 6
  • 7. Peer Meet the New Broadcasters 7
  • 8. A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open Business Telecommunication Education Energy Media & Content 8
  • 9. Telecommunication Business Media & Content Education Energy 9
  • 10. 10
  • 11. Open....is a real challenge The Desire for Control is ingrained in our genes, our lives, our education Open can mean out-of-control & chaotic Openness can create risk. Open may feel unsafe. The Degree of Openness and your Revenue Growth Rate will be directly related 11
  • 12. Guess what: Anything ‘Social’ must be Open. 12
  • 13. 12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock 13
  • 14. 12-24 Months: Resistance to Change retires! Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’ 14
  • 15. 3-5 years: Ownership will matter a lot less, Mind- and Market- share will matter a lot more 15
  • 16. 2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’ Geotagging Bookmark- Real-Time Sharing Reviews Status Updates Life- Augmented Pictures & streaming Video Reality Uploading 16
  • 17. 5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage 17
  • 18. 18 months: Socially Augmented Reality 18
  • 19. 2 years: the cost of staying in touch drops towards zero Source: Nokia Siemens Networks 19
  • 20. Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile: Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging... Source: trendwatching.com 20
  • 21. Extreme Reputation Economy The absence of accurate, real-time and verified data about you or your business may soon mean that you virtually don’t exist 21
  • 22. 2 years: Social Business... or none 22
  • 23. 12 months: Social Media is CRM 23
  • 24. Social Business =Trust Osmosis s t Tru 24
  • 25. Within 12-24 Months: intelligent, automated Social ‘Agents’ 25 The Semantic Web
  • 26. 12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take 26
  • 27. 12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue 27
  • 28. Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business 28
  • 29. 2 years: Social ‘Books’ Curated Interactive Real-time Commons-owned Connected Peer-reviewed Non-Linear 29
  • 30. 3 years: Social Capital will be become as important as actual money. The cult(ure) of API is exploding 30
  • 31. Social Capital Example 31
  • 32. 3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital 32
  • 33. Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising 33
  • 34. 18 months: much smarter, social advertising 34
  • 35. 2 years: one-way communications from a non-trusted source are 99% useless Inspired by trendwatching.com 35
  • 36. 36
  • 37. The Future of Social Media Abundance of... Scarcity of.... Many new Products & Trusted Opinions Services ConTEXT & Content Trusted Filters Connectivity Private Spaces Human Ingenuity & Machine Intelligence Creativity Numbers of Actual Relationships ‘Connections’ 37
  • 38. 2-5 years: virtual venues, telepresence & holography 38
  • 39. 3-5 years: 30% Freemium in most ‘Content’ Industries 39
  • 40. About Social Media Monetization • Behavior, habit & culture changes always come first • Monetization is a possible consequence (not a starting point) • Every large and engaged audience can be turned into money. Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009 40
  • 41. REVENUE Expect radical habit changes when the technology actually works 41
  • 42. Thanks for listening! • email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com • twitter.com/gleonhard • facebook: gleonhard • more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com 42