The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

The next 5 years in Social Media ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard 1

First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me. Knowledge grows when shared 2

The World’s Operating System is Morphing 3

Not Social 4

Business Marketing Social Not Social Advertising Content & Media Communication Education Politics 5

Social A new, social OS Not Social 6

Peer Meet the New Broadcasters 7

A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open Business Telecommunication Education Energy Media & Content 8

Telecommunication Business Media & Content Education Energy 9

Open....is a real challenge The Desire for Control is ingrained in our genes, our lives, our education Open can mean out-of-control & chaotic Openness can create risk. Open may feel unsafe. The Degree of Openness and your Revenue Growth Rate will be directly related 11

Guess what: Anything ‘Social’ must be Open. 12

12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock 13

12-24 Months: Resistance to Change retires! Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’ 14

3-5 years: Ownership will matter a lot less, Mind- and Market- share will matter a lot more 15

2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’ Geotagging Bookmark- Real-Time Sharing Reviews Status Updates Life- Augmented Pictures & streaming Video Reality Uploading 16

5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage 17

18 months: Socially Augmented Reality 18

2 years: the cost of staying in touch drops towards zero Source: Nokia Siemens Networks 19

Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile: Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging... Source: trendwatching.com 20

Extreme Reputation Economy The absence of accurate, real-time and verified data about you or your business may soon mean that you virtually don’t exist 21

2 years: Social Business... or none 22

12 months: Social Media is CRM 23

Social Business =Trust Osmosis s t Tru 24

Within 12-24 Months: intelligent, automated Social ‘Agents’ 25 The Semantic Web

12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take 26

12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue 27

Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business 28

2 years: Social ‘Books’ Curated Interactive Real-time Commons-owned Connected Peer-reviewed Non-Linear 29

3 years: Social Capital will be become as important as actual money. The cult(ure) of API is exploding 30

Social Capital Example 31

3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital 32

Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising 33

18 months: much smarter, social advertising 34

2 years: one-way communications from a non-trusted source are 99% useless Inspired by trendwatching.com 35

The Future of Social Media Abundance of... Scarcity of.... Many new Products & Trusted Opinions Services ConTEXT & Content Trusted Filters Connectivity Private Spaces Human Ingenuity & Machine Intelligence Creativity Numbers of Actual Relationships ‘Connections’ 37

2-5 years: virtual venues, telepresence & holography 38

3-5 years: 30% Freemium in most ‘Content’ Industries 39

About Social Media Monetization • Behavior, habit & culture changes always come first • Monetization is a possible consequence (not a starting point) • Every large and engaged audience can be turned into money. Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009 40

REVENUE Expect radical habit changes when the technology actually works 41

Thanks for listening! • email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com • twitter.com/gleonhard • facebook: gleonhard • more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com 42

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The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

by Futurist Gerd Leonhard on Sep 24, 2009

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The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009 Presentation Transcript