The next 5 years in
    Social Media

      ‣ Futurist
      ‣ Strategist
      ‣ Author & Blogger
      www.mediafuturist...
First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network
    Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me.




Knowledge grows whe...
The World’s Operating System is Morphing




3
Not Social




4
Business
                   Marketing

    Social
    Not Social     Advertising
                 Content & Media
        ...
Social

A new, social OS
Not Social

6
Peer
    Meet the New Broadcasters




7
A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open




             Business
         Telecommunication
        Education     Energy
    ...
Telecommunication
    Business
              Media & Content
    Education         Energy


9
10
Open....is a real challenge
      The Desire for Control is ingrained in
       our genes, our lives, our education
     O...
Guess what:

     Anything ‘Social’
         must be
        Open.
12
12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock




13
12-24 Months: Resistance
         to Change retires!
                       Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’




14
3-5 years:
  Ownership
 will matter a
lot less, Mind-
 and Market-
  share will
  matter a lot
      more
15
2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’

                              Geotagging
     Bookmark-    Real-Time
      Sharing ...
5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage




17
18 months: Socially Augmented Reality




18
2 years: the cost of staying in
   touch drops towards zero




     Source: Nokia Siemens Networks



19
Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile:
     Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging...




                    Source: tre...
Extreme Reputation Economy
     The absence of accurate,
     real-time and verified data
     about you or your business
...
2 years: Social Business... or none




22
12 months: Social Media is CRM




23
Social Business =Trust Osmosis
           s t
        Tru




24
Within 12-24 Months: intelligent,
    automated Social ‘Agents’




25
     The Semantic Web
12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take




26
12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue




27
Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business




28
2 years: Social ‘Books’
       Curated
       Interactive
      Real-time
     Commons-owned
       Connected
      Peer-r...
3 years: Social Capital will be become
    as important as actual money.




 The cult(ure) of API is exploding
30
Social Capital Example




31
3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital




32
Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising




33
18 months: much smarter, social advertising




34
2 years: one-way communications from a
       non-trusted source are 99%

           useless


                           ...
36
The Future of Social Media
     Abundance of... Scarcity of....
Many new Products &
                         Trusted Opini...
2-5 years: virtual venues,
     telepresence & holography




38
3-5 years: 30% Freemium in
       most ‘Content’ Industries




39
About Social Media Monetization
•  Behavior, habit & culture changes
          always come first
•     Monetization is a p...
REVENUE
Expect radical habit changes when the
     technology actually works




41
Thanks for listening!

•    email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
•    twitter.com/gleonhard
•    facebook: gleonhard
•    mo...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

16,383

Published on

The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points:
* Social Networks are the Next Broadcasters
* The world's OS is changing: from closed to open
* What does a Social OS look like?
* Copyright Gridlock
* The global social brain
* Socially augmented reality
* The extreme reputation economy... and much more

8 Comments
92 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
16,383
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
19
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
918
Comments
8
Likes
92
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009"

  1. 1. The next 5 years in Social Media ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard 1
  2. 2. First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me. Knowledge grows when shared 2
  3. 3. The World’s Operating System is Morphing 3
  4. 4. Not Social 4
  5. 5. Business Marketing Social Not Social Advertising Content & Media Communication Education Politics 5
  6. 6. Social A new, social OS Not Social 6
  7. 7. Peer Meet the New Broadcasters 7
  8. 8. A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open Business Telecommunication Education Energy Media & Content 8
  9. 9. Telecommunication Business Media & Content Education Energy 9
  10. 10. 10
  11. 11. Open....is a real challenge The Desire for Control is ingrained in our genes, our lives, our education Open can mean out-of-control & chaotic Openness can create risk. Open may feel unsafe. The Degree of Openness and your Revenue Growth Rate will be directly related 11
  12. 12. Guess what: Anything ‘Social’ must be Open. 12
  13. 13. 12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock 13
  14. 14. 12-24 Months: Resistance to Change retires! Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’ 14
  15. 15. 3-5 years: Ownership will matter a lot less, Mind- and Market- share will matter a lot more 15
  16. 16. 2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’ Geotagging Bookmark- Real-Time Sharing Reviews Status Updates Life- Augmented Pictures & streaming Video Reality Uploading 16
  17. 17. 5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage 17
  18. 18. 18 months: Socially Augmented Reality 18
  19. 19. 2 years: the cost of staying in touch drops towards zero Source: Nokia Siemens Networks 19
  20. 20. Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile: Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging... Source: trendwatching.com 20
  21. 21. Extreme Reputation Economy The absence of accurate, real-time and verified data about you or your business may soon mean that you virtually don’t exist 21
  22. 22. 2 years: Social Business... or none 22
  23. 23. 12 months: Social Media is CRM 23
  24. 24. Social Business =Trust Osmosis s t Tru 24
  25. 25. Within 12-24 Months: intelligent, automated Social ‘Agents’ 25 The Semantic Web
  26. 26. 12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take 26
  27. 27. 12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue 27
  28. 28. Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business 28
  29. 29. 2 years: Social ‘Books’ Curated Interactive Real-time Commons-owned Connected Peer-reviewed Non-Linear 29
  30. 30. 3 years: Social Capital will be become as important as actual money. The cult(ure) of API is exploding 30
  31. 31. Social Capital Example 31
  32. 32. 3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital 32
  33. 33. Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising 33
  34. 34. 18 months: much smarter, social advertising 34
  35. 35. 2 years: one-way communications from a non-trusted source are 99% useless Inspired by trendwatching.com 35
  36. 36. 36
  37. 37. The Future of Social Media Abundance of... Scarcity of.... Many new Products & Trusted Opinions Services ConTEXT & Content Trusted Filters Connectivity Private Spaces Human Ingenuity & Machine Intelligence Creativity Numbers of Actual Relationships ‘Connections’ 37
  38. 38. 2-5 years: virtual venues, telepresence & holography 38
  39. 39. 3-5 years: 30% Freemium in most ‘Content’ Industries 39
  40. 40. About Social Media Monetization • Behavior, habit & culture changes always come first • Monetization is a possible consequence (not a starting point) • Every large and engaged audience can be turned into money. Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009 40
  41. 41. REVENUE Expect radical habit changes when the technology actually works 41
  42. 42. Thanks for listening! • email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com • twitter.com/gleonhard • facebook: gleonhard • more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com 42
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×