Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

30,445 views

Published on

The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points:
* Social Networks are the Next Broadcasters
* The world's OS is changing: from closed to open
* What does a Social OS look like?
* Copyright Gridlock
* The global social brain
* Socially augmented reality
* The extreme reputation economy... and much more

The Future of Social Media Gerd Leonhard @ PICNIC 2009

  1. The next 5 years in Social Media ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard 1
  2. First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me. Knowledge grows when shared 2
  3. The World’s Operating System is Morphing 3
  4. Not Social 4
  5. Business Marketing Social Not Social Advertising Content & Media Communication Education Politics 5
  6. Social A new, social OS Not Social 6
  7. Peer Meet the New Broadcasters 7
  8. A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open Business Telecommunication Education Energy Media & Content 8
  9. Telecommunication Business Media & Content Education Energy 9
  10. 10
  11. Open....is a real challenge The Desire for Control is ingrained in our genes, our lives, our education Open can mean out-of-control & chaotic Openness can create risk. Open may feel unsafe. The Degree of Openness and your Revenue Growth Rate will be directly related 11
  12. Guess what: Anything ‘Social’ must be Open. 12
  13. 12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock 13
  14. 12-24 Months: Resistance to Change retires! Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’ 14
  15. 3-5 years: Ownership will matter a lot less, Mind- and Market- share will matter a lot more 15
  16. 2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’ Geotagging Bookmark- Real-Time Sharing Reviews Status Updates Life- Augmented Pictures & streaming Video Reality Uploading 16
  17. 5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage 17
  18. 18 months: Socially Augmented Reality 18
  19. 2 years: the cost of staying in touch drops towards zero Source: Nokia Siemens Networks 19
  20. Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile: Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging... Source: trendwatching.com 20
  21. Extreme Reputation Economy The absence of accurate, real-time and verified data about you or your business may soon mean that you virtually don’t exist 21
  22. 2 years: Social Business... or none 22
  23. 12 months: Social Media is CRM 23
  24. Social Business =Trust Osmosis s t Tru 24
  25. Within 12-24 Months: intelligent, automated Social ‘Agents’ 25 The Semantic Web
  26. 12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take 26
  27. 12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue 27
  28. Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business 28
  29. 2 years: Social ‘Books’ Curated Interactive Real-time Commons-owned Connected Peer-reviewed Non-Linear 29
  30. 3 years: Social Capital will be become as important as actual money. The cult(ure) of API is exploding 30
  31. Social Capital Example 31
  32. 3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital 32
  33. Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising 33
  34. 18 months: much smarter, social advertising 34
  35. 2 years: one-way communications from a non-trusted source are 99% useless Inspired by trendwatching.com 35
  36. 36
  37. The Future of Social Media Abundance of... Scarcity of.... Many new Products & Trusted Opinions Services ConTEXT & Content Trusted Filters Connectivity Private Spaces Human Ingenuity & Machine Intelligence Creativity Numbers of Actual Relationships ‘Connections’ 37
  38. 2-5 years: virtual venues, telepresence & holography 38
  39. 3-5 years: 30% Freemium in most ‘Content’ Industries 39
  40. About Social Media Monetization • Behavior, habit & culture changes always come first • Monetization is a possible consequence (not a starting point) • Every large and engaged audience can be turned into money. Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009 40
  41. REVENUE Expect radical habit changes when the technology actually works 41
  42. Thanks for listening! • email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com • twitter.com/gleonhard • facebook: gleonhard • more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com 42

×