FAO-MOSAICC

Climate change impact assessment toolbox FAO NRC Climate Impact Team EC/FAO programme on “Linking information and decision-making to improve food security” (GCP/GLO/243/EC) Theme 3: climate change and food security

Climate change impact assessment toolbox
Integrated impact assessment on crop yields, from climate data handling to economic assessment
Based on the experience of the FAO/WB CC impact study in Morocco
Semi-empirical spatially explicit modelling
Expected outcomes:
Methodology
Software toolbox
Tool documentation
Sample data and tutorials

Methodology
4 Main parts
Climate data downscaling and interpolation (data from GCM used by IPCC)
Statistical downscaling tool
R package for interpolation with AURELHY
Hydrological modelling: country-wide evaluation of the water resources (STREAM)

Methodology
4 Main parts
Crop modelling (AMS and AquaCrop): yield projections under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approach
Economic model: dynamic general equilibrium model (“Economically what would be the optimal reaction from the economic agents to changing yields under cc scenarios”)

Software architecture
All modelling carried out on a central server
All models are connected to a central database with which they exchange data
Users send jobs through web interfaces
Use of free software
Web interfaces solve cross platform issues

Flowchart Server & Database Modeler Interface External users interface Climate Scenario Downscaling Historical weather records Downscaled Climate scenarios Hydrological Modelling Crop growth Simulation Economic Modelling IPCC GCM Low Resolution Scenarios Historical discharge records Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical yield records Yield projections Current state of economy Macroeconomic scenarios Economic impacts Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Soil and Land use data Dam data

Example of interface Interface for the interpolation with AURELHY

Partners Service d'écologie numérique des milieux aquatiques Université de Mons Santander Meteorology Group Universidad de Cantabria Institute for Environmental studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam FAO AgrometShell FAO AquaCrop Water Insight Mesinet

Current status
Current status: finalizing software development
Prototype + documentation foreseen for the end of the year
Real world tests in 2011 (validation and implementation) in two countries

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FAO-MOSAICC

by francoisdelobel

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FAO-MOSAICC

by francoisdelobel

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FAO-MOSAICC Presentation Transcript

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