The Singularity AKA The Rapture of the Nerds Joel Pitt - http://blog.ferrouswheel.info/

AKA The Rapture of the Nerds

Outline Singularity definition Why is it important? How might it happen? Arguments against and problems Conclusions

Singularity definition

Why is it important?

How might it happen?

Arguments against and problems

Conclusions

Just what IS the “Singularity”? The creation of greater than human intelligence. The recursive self-improvement in said intelligence. A point at which our predictions about the future break down.

The creation of greater than human intelligence.

The recursive self-improvement in said intelligence.

A point at which our predictions about the future break down.

Why is the Singularity important? A major paradigm shift for humanity Raises, and potentially will answer, questions about consciousness and intellect Magic: “ Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” - Arthur C. Clarke Ensure/Assist our survival against existential risks* *http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

A major paradigm shift for humanity

Raises, and potentially will answer, questions about consciousness and intellect

Magic:

“ Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” - Arthur C. Clarke

Ensure/Assist our survival against existential risks*

Avenues to the Singularity Artificial Intelligence Direct brain-computer interfaces Biological augmentation of the brain or genetic engineering Ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation

Artificial Intelligence

Direct brain-computer interfaces

Biological augmentation of the brain or genetic engineering

Ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation

The Trends Ray Kurzweil’s take: It's all about exponential curves. Moore’s Law Paradigm Shifts The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2005) by Ray Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil’s take: It's all about exponential curves.

Moore’s Law

Paradigm Shifts

The Gillette Singularity On the caution of extrapolation… But then, the rate of nano-tech R&D spending could mean we have nano-tech razors in 2015.

Artificial General Intelligence Narrow vs. strong AI. Best/safest bet? Several strong candidates: Novamente (potentially opencog), Ben Goertzel A2I2, Peter Voss NARS, Pei Wang Self-Aware Systems, Steve Omohundro and if they fail, Google has AI on their project planner in the distant future at 2030.

Narrow vs. strong AI.

Best/safest bet?

Several strong candidates:

Novamente (potentially opencog), Ben Goertzel

A2I2, Peter Voss

NARS, Pei Wang

Self-Aware Systems, Steve Omohundro

and if they fail, Google has AI on their project planner in the distant future at 2030.

Hard vs Soft Take-off Dependent on: Duration between improvement loops Improvement factor

Dependent on:

Duration between improvement loops

Improvement factor

Good vs. Bad The dilemma: If you make a recursively self-improving intelligence system, how do you ensure it plays nice with humans? Friendly AI vs. Unfriendly AI Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence’s research focus. Important to get it right first time!

The dilemma: If you make a recursively self-improving intelligence system, how do you ensure it plays nice with humans?

Friendly AI vs. Unfriendly AI

Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence’s research focus.

Important to get it right first time!

Problems The problem with extrapolation (e.g. The Gilette Singularity)‏ Can an intelligent entity design a more intelligent entity? Is there some inherent limit to intelligence? Current inability to ensure a safe singularity

The problem with extrapolation (e.g. The Gilette Singularity)‏

Can an intelligent entity design a more intelligent entity?

Is there some inherent limit to intelligence?

Current inability to ensure a safe singularity

When might it happen? Dependent on so many things, but let's use the wisdom of crowds : from Bruce J. Klein's blog: http://www.novamente.net/bruce/index.php/?p=54

Dependent on so many things, but let's use the wisdom of crowds :

Conclusions The Singularity, whether it eventuates or not, has the potential to cause tremendous good, but also the potential to result in great harm. Thus it is worth thinking about now, while we still have the ability to influence the direction it proceeds in. We are in for interesting times…

The Singularity, whether it eventuates or not, has the potential to cause tremendous good, but also the potential to result in great harm. Thus it is worth thinking about now, while we still have the ability to influence the direction it proceeds in.

We are in for interesting times…

Further reading The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence http://singinst.org/ The Wikipedia page on “Technological singularity”

The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil

The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence http://singinst.org/

The Wikipedia page on “Technological singularity”