3. here’s a hint…
In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca Cola
Ford almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw
business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from
1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009
standardized products market the year before mismanagement
practices
5. but megatrends offer concrete
opportunities as well
Siemens Crowdsourcing,
Tata’s Nano-car reorganization aligns Google.org
specifically designed philanthropic activities desintermediation and
each business unit to a open innovation are
for rising middle class challenge linked to mixes core product
in India with social good creating complete
megatrends new industries
6. so why understanding and assessing
megatrends is crucial for the future of your
business?
7. before we start… what are megatrends exactly?
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is
a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
8. look beyond the obvious…
megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
ageing population
impact obvious
health care governments
need to prepare for massive elderly need to find a solution for worsening
population with specific needs worker/retired ratio retail
need to adapt to changing consumption
patterns
education
needs to develop specific programs to
transport keep elderly at work
entertainment/leisure
public transport need to adapt to needs
need to prepare for specific needs and
of elderly population
time of retired people
finance/insurance manufacturing
specific offering for elderly people
needs to find solutions for skills gap/
talent shortage
marketing
elderly people will keep at work through
crowdsourcing.?
utilities
adapt services to specific needs of
elderly
impact less obvious
9. look beyond the obvious…
megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
desintermediation
impact obvious
retail shops
did loose some business already through
direct selling/ ecommerce music industry
some fan-funding models have gone
banking broke, others getting successful
peer-to-peer lending growing from
800m$ to 3b$ this year
marketing
crowdsourcing and open innovation
eating away share
head hunting
recruitment websites and social media
are being used for talent search IT services
„do it yourself‟ concepts are getting
mainstream
health care
„peer-to-peer‟ health provision projects
arise in US
Consulting
get instant / online / mass-customized
advise?
Governments
direct redistribution of wealth?
impact less obvious
10. it‟s the crucial first step to ensure your future success
2. Business Model
1. Megatrend exercise 3. Strategy execution
innovation
Mega trends
generate strategic make strategic make strategy
ideas decisions work
11. in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many
areas of your business…
external
new new business new needs of new customer
competitors models customers segments
megatrends
internal
new talents and new marketing new go-to- new production
new ecosystems
competencies mix market models processes
13. how to assess the impact of megatrends on
your company and draw meaningful
conclusions for your business strategy
14. here‟s a simple process to assess the impact of megatrends on
your company:
#1 identify Mega trends
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
16. guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious
impact on your industry or company… the
most successful ideas for innovation will come
from elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a
combination of internal (survey) and external
(consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to
discuss.
17. guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different background,
functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template (though don’t
stick to it);
• take notes during the discussion;
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !
18. guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends
discussions
• segment the trends so as to show which ones
need action or a close monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your
customer segments and stakeholders
19. guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the
megatrends exercise
• Set up different documents dependent on
target group and aim:
21. do you want to use megatrend assessments to ensure the
future success of your company? Get some help…
° thought-provoking opening keynote for your strategic planning session
° train you on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company
° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise
° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the
light of megatrends
website www.i4fi.com
blog www.fredericdemeyer.com
mail frederic@i4fi.com
Phone +32 478 68 13 08
22. Preliminary reactions to the book:
discover more… “Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate
into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for
any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur, and anyone who is
… in depth coverage of the impact of 20 megatrends on involved in innovation strategies.”
Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation
industries and companies;
"It's a challenge to design a great strategy. In an world with
… more than 10 case studies constant information overload, leaders have to learn to separate
the core from the noise. Megatrends will help you get this job
… full details and best practices on the megatrend-exercise done. This book will give you all necessary insights to identify
those themes that are crucial for the future of your company. A
must read!”
Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory,
“The impact of megatrends on your company” author of “Strategy Execution Heroes”
“Looking at the future with an open mind is an essential
ingredient of leadership. This book has the merit of enabling this
competence in a very pragmatic way. The reality is too complex
Available in Dutch at Die Keure Business & and dynamic to leave it to specialized bureaus and top
Economics publishers management to deal with. Sustainable companies have all their
www.business-economics.be employees aligned to a common view of the future”
ISBN: 978 90 4861 210 9 Koen Marichal, Director The Future Leadership Initiative,
Antwerp Management School
“This book is an excellent overview of the major trends, but on top
of that offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and
master its consequences. The author provides an essential
guideline for any strategy exercise”
English version available on Amazon.com in Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble
Available December
in English “A clear and comprehensible summary of the major trends that
(send me an e-mail at frederic@i4fi.com if you makes you think about adapting your corporate strategy to the
as from
want to get notified when the book becomes new reality”
November Ralph Van Lysebeth, Country Manager, Packard Bell
available)
