Hrm megatrends workshop june 2012

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Slides for the workshop 'Long-term HRM strategy: how to turn your Human Resources management into a crucial input for your company's long-term success'

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Hrm megatrends workshop june 2012

  1. 1. Long-term HRM strategy - turning HR into a crucial instrument for the long-term success of your company-frederic de meyerfounderinstitute for future insightsfrederic@i4fi.comwww.i4fi.comwww.fredericdemeyer.com@fdemeyer
  2. 2. Catching upWho are you?How are you doing?How is your company dealing with long-term trends?What do you expect from this session?
  3. 3. About me…Sept 2011 – nowJan 2001 – Sept 2011Sept 1999 – Dec 2000Dec 1998 – Sept 1999July 1998 – Nov 1998Sept 1997 – June 1998Sept 1995 – Aug 1997<1995
  4. 4. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  5. 5. Some housekeeping rules• Do not hesitate to interrupt me• What is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to you…please ask !!!• I’m not almighty …
  6. 6. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  7. 7. why do I have to bother about long-term trends?
  8. 8. let’s start with a challenge:what do these have in common?
  9. 9. here’s a hint… In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca ColaFord almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009standardized products market the year mismanagement before practices
  10. 10. sometimes long-term shifts do have short-term consequences!
  11. 11. before we start… what are megatrends exactly? one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event... an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends
  12. 12. my ‘rules of thumb’• long-lasting• amplifying• cause disruptive shift• have a global impact• ... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)
  13. 13. Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your corporate strategy? Lobby; Mood; Adoption; Regulation Opportunities -go-to-market innovation; - new products/services Fashion Corporate Tastes Communities Trends Execution Threats Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat; Mood - existing competion Predictions Black Swans Opportunities - business Model Innovation; Environment - gain efficiency, Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness Regulations Megatrends Strategy Macro-economy Political shifts Threats -irrelevance; - new competitors Scenario PlanningFrederic De Meyer
  14. 14. What the megatrend exercise is all about Opportunities - business Model Innovation; Environment - gain efficiency, Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness Regulations Megatrends strategy Macro-economy Political shifts Threats -irrelevance; - new competitors
  15. 15. Companies that grew new opportunities based on megatrends• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging – Tata Nano Car Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain ‘car-driver’ status• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety – Cisco Health Presence Less mobile but growing elderly population will need remote access to health. Less young people will lead to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located anywhere in the world.• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself – Nike and many many others Offer multiple customization possibilities
  16. 16. Companies that built new business models based on megatrends...• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation, crowdsourcing – Peer-to-peer lending Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to- peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant. – Fan Funding Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables anounymous funding of musicians for a share of potential revenue, making the intervention of music label companies redundant. – Crowdsourcing Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem solving, consumer-generated design, ... Crowdsourcing moves into all segments
  17. 17. Companies that shaped their organization and vision to megatrends• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation, Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ... – Siemens Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge... Very effective corporate branding.• Trend: Ageing Polulation – GlaxoSmithKline Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing Population trend ‘Do more, feel better, live longer’
  18. 18. in fact, megatrends could potentially transform manyareas of your business…external new new business new needs of new customer competitors models customers segments megatrendsinternal new talents and new marketing new new go-to- new production competencies mix ecosystems market models processes
  19. 19. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  20. 20. There’s different types of megatrends trends we can be trends that are taking shape but a tiny bit relatively certain of: future impact relatively uncertain: speculative: DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY• aging population • ubiquitous computing • consumerization• increasing world population • disintermediation (BYOD)• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • augmented Reality• urbanization/geographic mobility • social Media • 3D printing• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY • enhanced humans• widening gap rich-poor • cloud Computing SUSTAINABILITY BUSINESS TRENDS • global warming • shared value (CSR) • decentralization • scarcity of resources • social Entrepreneurship • gamification • energy dependency • Cause marketing • virtualization • declining biodiversity • social Business • new business models • green technologies • open inno/sourcing CONSUMER GEOPOLITICS • mass customization • radical transparency • power shift to East • trade blocs and unions • social buying • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions • the Market State • sustainable/ethical buying • rising middle class • the Market State • Virtual currencies SOCIETY • dematerialization • talent shortage (digitization) • boundary blurring • digital divide
  21. 21. look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences desintermediationimpact obvious retail shops did loose some business already through direct selling/ ecommerce music industry some fan-funding models have gone banking broke, others getting successful peer-to-peer lending growing from 800m$ to 3b$ this year marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation eating away share head hunting recruitment websites and social media are being used for talent search IT services ‘do it yourself’ concepts are getting mainstream health care ‘peer-to-peer’ health provision projects arise in US Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized advise? Governments direct redistribution of wealth?impact less obvious
  22. 22. look beyond the obvious… industries can be affected indirectly by trends transportimpact obvious Global warming Power shift to Legislation imposed on transport Rising middle class in emerging New growth opportunities emerging Impact on costs (oil) Shared value urbanization Corporate image More difficult to reach end customer 3D printing Less need for transport of goods? Radical transparency/ LCA Adapt to client demand Cradle to cradle Virtualization Adapt processes Less need for transport? GenY Preference for ‘clean’ responsible businessesimpact less obvious
  23. 23. look beyond the obvious… try it out for your industry <your industry>impact obvious Energy dependence enhanced humans Cause marketing Scarcity of resources Augmented reality New business models Digital divide Social media gamification Social Talent shortage crowdsourcing Power shift to Global warming Rising middle class in entrepreneurship Radical transparency/ emerging urbanization GenY emerging Shared value 3D printing Virtualizationimpact less obvious
  24. 24. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• Trends affecting other functions of the organization;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  25. 25. How some corporate functions will evolve R&D Open Manufact Innovation ICT Open uring source Outsourcing 3D Printing Virtual company Crowdsourcing Social buying Cust. Marketing Service Affiliate programs ‘Crowd-selling’ Admin Sales
  26. 26. The world becomes your R&D centerOpen innovation User generated Open sourcing platforms innovationMost of Fortune 500 use Open sourcing spreads even Fiat Mio made through input open innovation now to pharmaceutical market of +10,000 customers
  27. 27. Manufacturing without factories3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, … New opportunities in design and software
  28. 28. Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently by an anonymous crowd? Open Innovation Open source Outsourcing Outsourcing 3D Printing 3D Printing Using the crowds’ creativity Using the crowds’ creativity forUsing the crowd for research producing things and predictions… to design logo’s, websites, new product features, … (advertisements, videos, …)
  29. 29. Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with alternative business models? Open Open Innovation Innovation Open Open source source Outsourcing Outsourcing 3D Printing 3D Printing
  30. 30. The world is your sales team
  31. 31. Simple administrative tasks can be done anywhere
  32. 32. Customer service via social mediaCompanies building peer-to-peer support communities find 95% of customers using it, with 90% of them finding the solutions helpful
  33. 33. Technology becomes pervasiveAre Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself Taking away control and responsibility of IT?
  34. 34. The future is never extremeDisadvantages: Advantages: R&D• complexity • cost-efficiency gains• loss of control • lean company• less loyalty from contributors • constant innovation Open Open • more loyalty from customers Innovation Manufact Innovation ICT Open uring Open source source Cloud, Outsourcing Outsourcing Consumerization, 3D Printing 3D Printing DIY Virtual Virtual company Crowdsourcing Crowdsourcing Self help Social buying Social buying Social media Cust. Marketing Service Affiliate Micro-tasking programs ‘Crowd-selling’ Admin Sales
  35. 35. But new competencies will be needed R&D Open Innovation Open Manufac HRM source turing Cloud Outsourcing Consumeri 3D Printing zation Virtual company Virtual Social media Crowdsourcing Self help Social buying Cust. Market Service ing Affiliate programs Micro-tasking ‘Crowd-selling’ ICT Sales
  36. 36. Conclusions for the future of organizations• Will open up to the external world• Will organize around projects (~ movie production)• Will require new competencies from existing functions• Will require seamless communication
  37. 37. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  38. 38. What others consider to be long-term HR trends…1) Rise in health-care costs 1) Businesses seek to regain positive 1) It’s the economy2) Focus on domestic safety and security HR image 2) Millennials are on the march3) Use of technology to communicate with 2) Green initiatives still on hold 3) Employee recruiting and networking online employees 3) Digital-age reality sets-in 4) Made to order employment relationships4) Growing complexity of legal compliance 4) Analysis via HR metrics to address 5) The big blur (work-life)5) Use of technology to perform transactional performance 6) The rise of technology HR functions 5) HR technology meets the small 7) Employee training and development6) Focus on global security business transformed7) Preparing for the next wave of 6) Increasing efficiency of business 8) Tension increases over government retirement/labor shortage processes intervention in the employer-employee8) Use and development of e-learning 7) HR shared services gains steam relationship9) Exporting of US manufacturing jobs to 9) The rising cost of health-care developing countries 10) Globalization, outsourcing and offshoring10) Changing definition of family 1. Technology 2. Ageing society 3. Generation Y
  39. 39. (1) Technological trends affecting HRM function E-learning Cloud Training computing Tools Enhanced Crowdsourcing humans & Intranet Collaboration BYOD Internal (consumerization) HR tasks GRIN techs tools Recruitment communication Work style Tools & benefits Employee health NOW Social Media Gamification Augmented ERP Recruitment reality Resource Mgt Recruitment Corporate image Training & Training & development development Impact on HRM: New relationship with technology – develop project design skills
  40. 40. (1) Other consequences of technological trends(discussion) - are you using gamification, crowdsourcing, AR? - how would this impact HR functions? - what would be the main drivers for adoption? - why would you NOT use these new techs?
  41. 41. (2) How will the ageing population impact the HRMfunction? 2010 2050 employed/retired 2,24 1,51 employed/(retired + unemployed) 1,54 1,40 people at empl age 6,9M 6.4M employment 6,2M ??? Impact on HRM: At same employment rate, unemployment will be 3% in 2050 This will ineluctably lead to tensions on the labor market
  42. 42. (2) Other consequences of ageing population(discussion) - how are you preparing for ageing population? - how are you managing the different generations in your company? - what are the specific threats of ageing population for your company?
  43. 43. (3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloorChanging expectations about workGeneration internet is a fact of life Traditionalist Middle Age Generation 30+ Generation InternetTraining the hard way too much and Ill required to keep continuous and leave me expectedLearning style classroom facilitated independent collaborative and networkedCommunication style top down guarded hub and spoke collaborativeProblem-solving hierarchical horizontal independent collaborativeDecision-making seeks approval team informed team includes team decidesLeadership style command and get out of the way coach partner control Impact on HRM:Feedback no news is good once per year weekly/daily on demand How to manage different news generations in oneTechnology use uncomfortable unsure unable to work indispensable without it company?Job changing unwise sets me back necessary part of the plan(s ource: La nca s ter a nd Stil l ma n When genera tions col l i de 2003)
  44. 44. (3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor(discussion) - New migration pattern - how dependent are you from GenY‘action’ is - young people move to where talent? - 3 generations your working environment to attract GenY employees? do you adapt on workfloor - Do you offer ‘tailor made’ solutions environment of each generation? - tailor made HR services/ work to the needs - tension? New communication / learning - longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions
  45. 45. (my wildcard) Young potentials might prefer to become entrepreneurs # Jaren na beëindiging van de studies 0 5 10 15 20 24-30 werknemer 30-35 mixLeeftijd ondernemer 37-41 Impact on HRM: Frederic De Meyer The importance of attracting and retaining intrapreneurs !
  46. 46. (wildcard) Ideas to stimulate intrapreneurship (and,hence, innovation) in your company• Take ideas seriously (no, not through an ‘idea box’)• Stimulate autonomous idea development• Democratize decision-taking (bottom-up)• Cell-division with same DNA• Spin-in• Cherish failure
  47. 47. (wildcard) stimulating intrapreneurship(discussion) - New migration pattern - do you have programs to to where ‘action’ is - young people move stimulate intrapreneurship? - 3 generations on with new ideas? how do you deal workfloor - how do you make sure all corporateenvironment - tailor made HR services/ work functions come up with new ideas?tension? New communication / learning - - longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions
  48. 48. AgendaMeeting up & expectationsPart 1: zooming in on megatrends• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;• Specific trends affecting HRMPart 2: refine your strategy with megatrends• Megatrends exercise step-by-step• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
  49. 49. here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Mega trends Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  50. 50. but the devil is in the detail…
  51. 51. here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Mega trends Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  52. 52. Identification of Megatrends• Invite employees to submit• Internal survey• Brainstorming• External consultants• External individuals – Linked in – Crowdsourcing• Research
  53. 53. Research option: Researching External experts’ assessment of megatrends Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn megatrends for Future Studies EconoshocksCultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technologysociety will lead to (resources) (power shift)conflictAgeing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability product and services imperativeScarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer powerresources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear) impact on healthIndividualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East move (mobility - job & informed and geographical) empowered)Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography convergence) responsibility vs globalization)Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaningfadesMore wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resourcesTechnology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexityparts of daily lifeGlobal transport will ever Network organizingincrease (network-centricity) Urbanization
  54. 54. Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn questionabout Megatrends (Question asked by Andreas von der Heydt, director at L’Oréal) 26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS 13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech 12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy 10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar 9.5% demography 4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy 4.8% scarcity of resources (water 4.8% increasing complexity 3.0% online learning, for-profit universities 1.8% cost cutting 1.8% risk aversion 1.8% simplicity 1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship 1.2% gov 2.0 0.6% insourcing 0.6% simplexity 0.6% Wealth/poverty
  55. 55. External experts’ assessment of megatrends – group in themes Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author LinkedIn megatrends for Future Studies Econoshocks of Future FilesCultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technologysociety will lead to (resources) (power shift)conflictAgeing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability product and services imperativeScarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer powerresources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear) impact on healthIndividualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East move (mobility - job & informed and geographical) empowered)Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography convergence) responsibility vs globalization)Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaningfadesMore wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resourcesTechnology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexityparts of daily lifeGlobal transport will ever Network organizingincrease (network-centricity) Urbanization
  56. 56. External experts’ assessment of megatrends - cleaned up major trends Demographics: Geopolitics: - Ageing Population - Globalization 3.0 - Global mobility - Global Grid - Generation Y - Rising power of Emerging - Urbanization - Rising middle class - Gap rich-poor - The Market State Consumer trends: -Responsible buying - Mass customization Environment: Technology: - Global warming -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Scarcety of resources - Augmented reality - Energy dependency - Social Networks - Green technologies - GRIN Technologies - Radical Transparency - Tech customizationTIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !
  57. 57. …or select from the 46 used by i4fi… trends we can be trends that are taking shape but a tiny bit relatively certain of: future impact relatively uncertain: speculative: DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY• aging population • ubiquitous computing • social Media• increasing world population • disintermediation • augmented Reality• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • 3D• urbanization/geographic mobility • social Media • enhanced humans• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY• widening gap rich-poor • cloud Computing SUSTAINABILITY BUSINESS TRENDS • global warming • shared value (CSR) • decentralization • scarcity of resources • social Entrepreneurship • gamification • energy dependency • Cause marketing • virtualization • declining biodiversity • social Business • new business models • green technologies • open inno/sourcing CONSUMER GEOPOLITICS • mass customization • radical transparency • power shift to East • trade blocs and unions • social buying • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions • the Market State • sustainable/ethical buying • rising middle class • the Market State • Virtual currencies SOCIETY • dematerialization • talent shortage (digitization) • boundary blurring • digital divide
  58. 58. Make a selection, for instance with an internal survey Topic Trend Q1: Is this a NEW Q2: Is this trend Q3: Is this a +3 Q4: Is this trend trend ? disruptive? year trend? important for our company? Rate from 1-5 1 Demography Ageing population 2 Demography Growing mobility 3 Demography New migration 4 Demography Generation Y
  59. 59. guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company Mega trends • don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious impact on your industry or company… the most successful ideas for innovation will come from elsewhere; • get your ideas and selection from a combination of internal (survey) and external (consultants) input; • generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to discuss.
  60. 60. here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  61. 61. Discuss the impact of megatrends in small groups
  62. 62. Think Tank discussions22 megatrends, 5 Discussed in 5 Think Discussion points:themes Tanks Demographics: (+/- 25 participants)- Ageing Population- Global mobility- Generation Y- Urbanization- Gap rich-poor Subtrends Geopolitics:- Globalization 3.0- Global Grid Consequences- Rising power of Emerging- Rising middle class- The Market State Drivers Inhibitors Environment:- Global warming Likeliness- Scarcety of resources Timeline- Energy dependency- Green technologies- Radical Transparency Impact on company Technology:-Pervasive Technology (IoT) Impact on- Augmented reality ecosystem- Social Networks- GRIN Technologies Antitrends?- Tech customization Consumer trends:-Responsible buying- Mass customization
  63. 63. Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with thought-provoking questions...
  64. 64. Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they mightconstitute specific opportunities CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS More from less Less from less Limited resources and increasing People adapt their needs to diminshing population will drive need for more resources efficiency in resource management A personal touch Reducing choice Drive for ever increasing personalisation People look for ways to simplify decision of services and goods taking Divergent demographics Growing global health OECD countries ageing and unhealthy, Global health improvement due to science developing nations boom breakthrough, improved fertility rate More people on the move Fullfillment Geographic and functional mobility, Young people will build diverse urbanization experience leading to single goal, technology will make location obsolete iWorld Opting out Digital and natural world get mixed. More people will chose to deconnect Internet of things
  65. 65. Tip 3: use brainstorming techniques to open up theminds at the start of each megatrend discussion
  66. 66. Tip 3-1: use business model canvas to open up theminds at the start of each megatrend discussionYou can download the canvas for free on www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvas
  67. 67. Tip 3-2: use your own canvas to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion Connect with corporate strategyRecruitment Training & Employee Retention Development Employee Loyalty & satisfaction Employee PerformancePayroll/ Benefits Admin HR Partners
  68. 68. guidelines for discussing trends in your company • Invite people with different background, functions and seniority • follow a discussion template (though don’t stick to it); • take notes during the discussion; • 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend; • also look at anti-trends; • keep it fun !
  69. 69. here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  70. 70. Trends segmentation according to timeline, to knowwhich ones to act on... High 2 1 4 5 3 Impact on company 24 8 7 6 9 10 12 11 13 15 16 14 17 19 18 20 22 21 23 Low Already happening Recent/nacent Future Frederic De Meyer timeline
  71. 71. Trends segmentation based on which action to take 1. Aware These are the trends that your company has no influence over and that won’t impact on your core activities. In essence, these are quite harmless, although it is a good idea to keep an eye on themmanageble since they might influence the environment of your 2 1 customers, channels or partners. However, they do 4 5 3 not require any immediate action. Influence 24 8 7 Action 9 6 2. Monitor 10 The trends in this quadrant are potentially 12 11 dangerous. They have an impact on your core 13 activities but you have no influence over them. The 15 16 14 best you can do is follow them very closely, monitor 17 19 their breadth and impact in order to detect early 18 warning signals and have an action plan ready for 20 the event if these trends cross a certain threshold. 22 21 3. Influence These are trends that you can influence but that Aware Monitor only have an indirect impact on your business,determined through clients, employees or channels, for instance. They often constitute a good opportunity for your company to increase its relevancy over these stakeholders, increase loyalty, gain new customers or develop new services. context core 4. Action For the trends that impact your activities directlyFrederic De Meyer and over which you have a certain level of influence, they require immediate action. They will very often create new competitors if you don’t react (think of peer-to-peer lending in the financial sector) or create new business models and innovative products and services. You need to assess these trends urgently and develop a way to respond to them quickly.
  72. 72. ‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize threats forcustomers Heat maps can help you to: Weight Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...] (% T urno v e r) • uncover which customer segments, business lines, partners, etc are under threat (or opportunity) fromCustomer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60% specific trends • if you add their relative weight (in %) it can quicklyCustomer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20% show you how threatened your business is by theCustomer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10% situation at your customersCustomer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5% • lead to more meaningful (and purposeful)Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5% conversations with customers F re de ric D e M e ye r •Refine your strategy based on impact analysis of megatrends…
  73. 73. guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trendsdiscussions • segment the trends so as to show which ones need action or a close monitoring • map the way megatrends impact your customer segments and stakeholders • This is not rocket science… you can do this based on (internal) survey
  74. 74. here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  75. 75. Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:Megatrends document: every employee Fact sheets prepared for discussions, Alignment of vision, buy-in for Doc + discuss with some high level outcome of decisions discussionsExecutive Briefing: top management Short document with key Influence decisions, ideas for business Doc + discuss opportunities and threats (not in other model innovation docs)Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss impacting channelsPacks per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are Customer intimacy, marketing & sales Doc + discuss impacting specific customers argumentsPacks per product segment: productmanagers, Fact sheets of those trends that are Better market positioning, marketing, Doc + discuss business units, R&D impacting specific product or services sales messagesHigh level summary: External world Your companys vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of Presentations industry, new ideas and insights Assessing the impact of Megatrends on your company frederic de meyer
  76. 76. guidelines for communicating the conclusions of themegatrends exercise • Maximize the value of the insights for different audiences; • Select only the material and trends relevant to the specific audiences (don’t communicate everything to everyone); • Use these documents to explain specific strategic decisions
  77. 77. long-term shifts do have a short term effect… prepare your business now!
  78. 78. Useful documents and templates CD-ROM contains:  Full presentation deck in PPT;  40 megatrends fact sheets;  Brainstorming cue-cards;  Megatrend selection survey template;  Megatrend discussion template;  +20 reports on specific megatrends (publicly available)
  79. 79. The future cannot be predicted …but it can be made ! (ancient African saying) www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com

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