El futuro. (jose cordeiro)

José Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela Fundador, Caracas, Venezuela Singularity University Profesor, NASA Ames, California, USA

www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

Venezuela vs. Benesuela ? Escenarios Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100) Benesuela Venezuela www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

Venezuela: entre Suiza y Haití Escenarios? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 0 Haití? Suiza? Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

World Future Society m

2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 México 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1

Mientras más rápido vamos, más lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

¿Podemos estudiar el futuro? ¿Podemos estudiar el clima ? ¿Podemos estudiar las estrellas ? ¿Podemos estudiar la Tierra ? ¿Podemos estudiar el pasado ? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

Del Mediterr á neo al Pacífico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

A new face for the world

A new behind for the world

China: (Chung Kuo)

Singularity University

Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
www.singularity.com
Bill Gates
Ley de Moore

Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days

“ Android” Google Phone (gPhone)

Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler

Japón: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 años

Development is faster and faster

Energy “waves” : “decarbonization”

Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum

Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita
La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto y no por falta de petróleo.

Tres políticas petroleras:
Del pasado (basada en precios)
Del presente (basada en volúmenes)
Del futuro (basada en valor agregado)

From manufacturing to mindfacturing

We need to add value

Finlandia
(siglo XIX)
País pobre
Atrasado
Colonia
Idioma “bárbaro”

Bioenergy and “eternal” energy
Photosynthesis:
CO 2 + 2 H 2 O + light
-> (CH 2 O) + O 2 + H 2 O
From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria

NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2002 Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5) Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) Technology Demos (TRL 6-7) LEGEND R&D Decision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7) Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP Technology Testbeds MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Component-Level Flight Experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Large structures for large apertures & solar sails Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments High Efficiency Arrays for S/C SSP Concept definition complete Ground Test very large deployable structures 1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT) High Power SEPS For Science Probes Lunar Power, Large SEPS High-Power GEO CommSats MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo SSP Model System Concept(s) MSC 4+ (2020+) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW

JAXA : Space Solar Power Strategy

¿Qué es el futuro?
¡El futuro ya no es
lo que era antes!
Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.
Mafalda

Attitudes towards the future
Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future
Reactive ( fire fighter ) Respond
Preactive ( insurer ) Prepare
Proactive ( builder ) Create

Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro

The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Technologies of the “past”
30 years ago
Personal computers
20 years ago
Cell phones
10 years ago
Google
What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?
Immortal (ageless) cells!

Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org

NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce

Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms

Technological convergence is accelerating… … and everything is information

Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
www.singularity.com
Bill Gates
Ley de Moore

www.top500.org

Moore’s Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5 ICn 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
3D ICs
Quantum computing
Subatomic particles
Log Scale No!

1. Nano ( N BIC)

Nanotec h nolog y: www.nano.gov

2. Bio (N B IC)

The glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)

Dolly: the clone

Singapore: Biopolis 2012

Russia: ???

Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy )

The attack of the clones?

Synthetic biology is born
Variola virus (smallpox)
Genes: 197
Base pairs: 185,000
Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)
Genes: 485
Base pairs: 580,000
Homo sapiens sapiens
Genes: ~25,000
Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000

3. Info (NB I C)

MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop

The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”
Law of Nodes
( N units )
Law of Metcalfe
( N x N conexions )
Law of Reed
( exp.N Knowledge )

Global brain?

4. Cogno (NBI C )

The triune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973
Reptilian (primitive): instincts
Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions
Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence

Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp

Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org

1 brain
10 11 neurones
10 14 synapsis
10 17 computations
(per second)
And the mind?
And the spirit?
And the soul?
What is a brain ?

Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.

External brain implants

Robots in Japan and Korea

Asimo (Honda) evolution

Robots are good in Japan

Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org

Humans and machines! Humans or machines?

Marvin Minsky (MIT): Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be us !

Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny!

Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans trans-monkeys ?

Transhumanism, yes... but carefully Homo sapiens sapiens

Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic )

Stephen Hawking

Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future

Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s

Space: the final frontier?

SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011

The brain: the final frontier!

Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang )

Light up the world

The world is one

Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)

¡Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org

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El futuro. (jose cordeiro)

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