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El futuro. (jose cordeiro)
 

El futuro. (jose cordeiro)

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Presenta una vision futurista del mundo en los proximos 30 a√Īos..

Presenta una vision futurista del mundo en los proximos 30 a√Īos..

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    El futuro. (jose cordeiro) El futuro. (jose cordeiro) Presentation Transcript

    • Jos√© Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela Fundador, Caracas, Venezuela Singularity University Profesor, NASA Ames, California, USA
    • www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • Venezuela vs. Benesuela ? Escenarios Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100) Benesuela Venezuela www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • Venezuela: entre Suiza y Hait√≠ Escenarios? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 0 Hait√≠? Suiza? Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • World Future Society m
    • World Future Society m
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    • 2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 M√©xico 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1
    • Mientras m√°s r√°pido vamos, m√°s lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • ¬ŅPodemos estudiar el futuro? ¬ŅPodemos estudiar el clima ? ¬ŅPodemos estudiar las estrellas ? ¬ŅPodemos estudiar la Tierra ? ¬ŅPodemos estudiar el pasado ? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • Del Mediterr √° neo al Pac√≠fico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
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    • A new face for the world
    • A new behind for the world
    • China: (Chung Kuo)
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    • Singularity University
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    • Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
      • www.singularity.com
      • Bill Gates
      • Ley de Moore
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    • Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days
    • ‚Äú Android‚ÄĚ Google Phone (gPhone)
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    • Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces The 3 ‚Äúwaves‚ÄĚ of Alvin Toffler
    • Jap√≥n: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 a√Īos
    • Development is faster and faster
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    • Energy ‚Äúwaves‚ÄĚ : ‚Äúdecarbonization‚ÄĚ
    • Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
    • Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita
      • La Edad de Piedra se acab√≥ y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petr√≥leo se acabar√° pronto y no por falta de petr√≥leo.
      www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • Tres pol√≠ticas petroleras:
      • Del pasado (basada en precios)
      • Del presente (basada en vol√ļmenes)
      • Del futuro (basada en valor agregado)
      www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • From manufacturing to mindfacturing
    • We need to add value
      • Finlandia
      • (siglo XIX)
      • Pa√≠s pobre
      • Atrasado
      • Colonia
      • Idioma ‚Äúb√°rbaro‚ÄĚ
    • Bioenergy and ‚Äúeternal‚ÄĚ energy
      • Photosynthesis:
        • CO 2 + 2 H 2 O + light
        • -> (CH 2 O) + O 2 + H 2 O
      • From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
      • Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria
    • NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2002 Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5) Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) Technology Demos (TRL 6-7) LEGEND R&D Decision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7) Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP Technology Testbeds MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Component-Level Flight Experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Large structures for large apertures & solar sails Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments High Efficiency Arrays for S/C SSP Concept definition complete Ground Test very large deployable structures 1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demo‚Äôs (SPG/SEPS/WPT) High Power SEPS For Science Probes Lunar Power, Large SEPS High-Power GEO CommSats MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo SSP Model System Concept(s) MSC 4+ (2020+) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
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    • JAXA : Space Solar Power Strategy
    • ¬ŅQu√© es el futuro?
      • ¬°El futuro ya no es
      • lo que era antes!
      • Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.
      • Mafalda
      www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
    • Attitudes towards the future
      • Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future
      • Reactive ( fire fighter ) Respond
      • Preactive ( insurer ) Prepare
      • Proactive ( builder ) Create
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    • Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
    • The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
      • First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
      • Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
      • Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
    • Technologies of the ‚Äúpast‚ÄĚ
      • 30 years ago
        • Personal computers
      • 20 years ago
        • Cell phones
      • 10 years ago
        • Google
      • What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?
        • Immortal (ageless) cells!
    • Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org
    • NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
    • Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
    • Technological convergence is accelerating‚Ķ ‚Ķ and everything is information
    • Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
      • www.singularity.com
      • Bill Gates
      • Ley de Moore
    • www.top500.org
    • Moore‚Äôs Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5 ICn 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
      • 3D ICs
      • Quantum computing
      • Subatomic particles
      Log Scale No!
    • 1. Nano ( N BIC)
    • Nanotec h nolog y: www.nano.gov
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    • 2. Bio (N B IC)
    • The glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
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    • Dolly: the clone
    • Singapore: Biopolis 2012
    • Russia: ???
    • Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy )
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    • The attack of the clones?
    • Synthetic biology is born
      • Variola virus (smallpox)
        • Genes: 197
        • Base pairs: 185,000
      • Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)
        • Genes: 485
        • Base pairs: 580,000
      • Homo sapiens sapiens
        • Genes: ~25,000
        • Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
    • 3. Info (NB I C)
    • MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
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    • The 3 Laws of ‚ÄúKnowledge‚ÄĚ
      • Law of Nodes
        • ( N units )
      • Law of Metcalfe
        • ( N x N conexions )
      • Law of Reed
        • ( exp.N Knowledge )
    • Global brain? ¬† ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†
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    • 4. Cogno (NBI C )
    • The triune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973
      • Reptilian (primitive): instincts
      • Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions
      • Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence
    • Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
    • Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
    • Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
      • 1 brain
      • 10 11 neurones
      • 10 14 synapsis
      • 10 17 computations
      • (per second)
      • And the mind?
      • And the spirit?
      • And the soul?
      What is a brain ?
    • Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
    • External brain implants
    • Robots in Japan and Korea
    • Asimo (Honda) evolution
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    • Robots are good in Japan
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    • Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
    • Humans and machines! Humans or machines?
    • Marvin Minsky (MIT): Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be us !
    • Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny!
    • Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans trans-monkeys ?
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    • Transhumanism, yes... but carefully Homo sapiens sapiens
    • Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic )
    • Stephen Hawking
    • Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
    • Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer‚Äôs
    • Space: the final frontier?
    • SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011
    • The brain: the final frontier!
    • Yin-yang ťėī ťė≥ (and more yin-yang )
    • Light up the world
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    • The world is one
    • Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
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    • ¬°Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org