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José Luis Cordeiro   The Millennium Project  Director, Venezuela Node  Singularity UniversityNASA Ames, California, USA  I...
The Millennium Project40   Nodos   en   el   mundo
The Millennium Project’s15th AnniversaryAnnual Report Cardon the Future•   Global Challenges•   State of the Future Index•...
El Desafío Latinoamericano
Development is faster and faster                         La Escalera del Desarrollo                 (Tiempo para duplicar ...
Mientras más rápido vamos,más lejos necesitamos ver
Del Mediterráneo al Pacífico                       500 years   5000 years        50 years ???
China(中国)
A new face for the world
A new behind for the world
China:   (Chung Kuo)
Singularity University
Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near       • www.singularity.com       • Bill Gates       • Ley de Moore
23
24
25
Sequencing the genome: cost and time   Year      Cost (US$)       Time    2003      1,000,000.000     13 years    2007    ...
“Android” Google Phone (gPhone)
The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler                           Knowledge revolution                             Human resouces  ...
Japón: de sacapuntas malos acomputadoras buenas en 30 años
Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”100% 80%                                                                     Future      ...
Towards a post-petroleum world               British Petroleum               Beyond Petroleum
• La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no  por falta de piedras, y la Edad  del Petróleo se acabará pronto y  no por falta de petr...
From manufacturing to mindfacturing
We need to add value
Finlandia   (siglo XIX)•País pobre•Atrasado•Colonia•Idioma “bárbaro”
Bioenergy and “eternal” energy• Photosynthesis:  CO2 + 2 H2O + light  → (CH2O) + O2 + H2O• From fossil  hydrocarbons to li...
NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy                        2002              2003-2005                       2006-2010       ...
JAXA: Space Solar Power Strategy
¿Qué es el futuro?• ¡El futuro ya no es   lo que era antes!• Lo que hoy se vive no es el  acabose, sino apenas el  continu...
Attitudes towards the future•Passive (ostrich)         Suffer the future•Reactive (fire fighter)   Respond•Preactive (insu...
Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke• First Law: When a distinguished but  elderly scientist states that something is  p...
Technologies of the “past”• 30 years ago   Personal computers• 20 years ago   Cell phones• 10 years ago   Google• What wil...
Physical Immortality: Death of Death   1. Reproductive cells (good)       2. Cancer cells (bad)          www.Mprize.org
NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)National Science FoundationDepartment of Commerce
Technological Convergence NBIC Atoms                          Cells          Nano           Bio                  NBIC     ...
Technological convergence is       accelerating…… and everything is information
Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near       • www.singularity.com       • Bill Gates       • Ley de Moore
www.top500.org
Moore’s Wall?                 ICn                 No!Log Scale               IC5                                          ...
1. Nano (NBIC)
Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov
2. Bio (NBIC)
The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
Dolly: the clone
Singapore: Biopolis 2012
Russia: ???
Korea: Hwang Woo-suk (Snuppy)
The attack of the clones?
Synthetic biology is born• Variola virus (smallpox)   Genes: 197   Base pairs: 185,000• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)  ...
3. Info (NBIC)
MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”• Law of Nodes  (N units)• Law of Metcalfe  (N x N conexions)• Law of Reed  (exp.N Knowledge)
Global brain?
IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy!     February 14-16, 2011
4. Cogno (NBIC)
The triune brain:       Paul MacLean, 1973• Reptilian (primitive):  instincts• Limbic (paleomammalian):  emotions• Neocort...
Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
What is a brain?          • 1 brain          • 1011 neurones          • 1014 synapsis          • 1017 computations        ...
Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
External brain implants
Robots in Japan and Korea
Asimo (Honda) evolution
Robots are good in Japan
Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
Humans and machines!Humans or machines?
Marvin Minsky (MIT):Will robots inherit the earth?  Yes, but they will be us!
Bart Kosko, USC: Biology is not destiny.   It was never more than tendency.Biology was just natures first quick and    dir...
Transhumanism is S&T for humans:  transcending human limitations     www.TransHumanismo.org    Are humans trans-monkeys?
Transhumanism, yes...    but carefullyHomo sapiens sapiens
Superman?Christopher   Reeve(paraplegic)
Stephen Hawking
Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s
Space:the final frontier?
SpaceShipOne: Virgin Galactic 2012
The brain:the final frontier!
Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)
Light up the world
The world is one
Guru Cordeiro meditating in India(Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
¡Muchas gracias!www.Cordeiro.org
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El futuro-de-la-tecnologia-y-la-tecnologia-del-futuro-jose-luis-cordeiro

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El futuro-de-la-tecnologia-y-la-tecnologia-del-futuro-jose-luis-cordeiro

  1. 1. José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project Director, Venezuela Node Singularity UniversityNASA Ames, California, USA IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years)Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)Lima, 17 de septiembre de 2011
  2. 2. The Millennium Project40 Nodos en el mundo
  3. 3. The Millennium Project’s15th AnniversaryAnnual Report Cardon the Future• Global Challenges• State of the Future Index• Egypt 2020• Future Arts/Media 2020• Latin America 2030• Environmental Security• Other Futures ResearchPlus 8,000-page CD
  4. 4. El Desafío Latinoamericano
  5. 5. Development is faster and faster La Escalera del Desarrollo (Tiempo para duplicar el PIB por habitante) La Escalera del Desarrollo China, 1987-1994Corea del Sur, 1978-1987 Es paña, 1950-1968 Ital ia, 1890-1911 J apón, 1885-1919 EUA, 1839-1886 Reino Uni do, 1780-1838 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Años
  6. 6. Mientras más rápido vamos,más lejos necesitamos ver
  7. 7. Del Mediterráneo al Pacífico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ???
  8. 8. China(中国)
  9. 9. A new face for the world
  10. 10. A new behind for the world
  11. 11. China: (Chung Kuo)
  12. 12. Singularity University
  13. 13. Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near • www.singularity.com • Bill Gates • Ley de Moore
  14. 14. 23
  15. 15. 24
  16. 16. 25
  17. 17. Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days 2020 10 8 hours
  18. 18. “Android” Google Phone (gPhone)
  19. 19. The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler Knowledge revolution Human resouces Industrial revolution Financial resourcesAgricultural revolution Natural resources
  20. 20. Japón: de sacapuntas malos acomputadoras buenas en 30 años
  21. 21. Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”100% 80% Future Others 60% Gas Oil 40% Coal Wood 20% 0% 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
  22. 22. Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
  23. 23. • La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto y no por falta de petróleo. Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita
  24. 24. From manufacturing to mindfacturing
  25. 25. We need to add value
  26. 26. Finlandia (siglo XIX)•País pobre•Atrasado•Colonia•Idioma “bárbaro”
  27. 27. Bioenergy and “eternal” energy• Photosynthesis: CO2 + 2 H2O + light → (CH2O) + O2 + H2O• From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates• Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria
  28. 28. NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy 2002 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 SSP Concept Complete Initial SSP Technology Research Technology definition complete for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale SystemsStudies & Proof-of- TestbedsConceptTechnology Component-LevelResearch (TRL 2-4) Proof-of-Concept experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSPTechnology 10 kW 100 kW 1 MWResearch, Development and Test Ground Test very large(TRL 4-5) deployable structures Complete Initial R&D for High Efficiency High Power SEPS High-Power GEO 1 MW to Full-Scale SSPDual-Purpose Arrays for S/C For Science Probes CommSatsApplications R&D(TRL 4-6) Lunar Power, Large SEPS MSC 3 Large structures for large apertures & solar sails 10 MW-Class Flight MSC 1 Demo (TRL 7) 50 M Class flight expt. 100 kW Class SSP (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) flight demoTechnology Demos(TRL 6-7) MSC 4+ Component-Level MSC 2 1 MW Class SSP advanced (2020+) Flight Experiments 10-100 kW SSP technology subsystem flight planetary surface demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT) demo LEGEND R&D Major R&D Pgm Strategic R&T Road SSP Model System Decision Point Milestone Map Objective Concept(s)
  29. 29. JAXA: Space Solar Power Strategy
  30. 30. ¿Qué es el futuro?• ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes!• Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha. Mafalda
  31. 31. Attitudes towards the future•Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future•Reactive (fire fighter) Respond•Preactive (insurer) Prepare•Proactive (builder) Create
  32. 32. Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
  33. 33. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke• First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.• Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
  34. 34. Technologies of the “past”• 30 years ago Personal computers• 20 years ago Cell phones• 10 years ago Google• What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years? Immortal (ageless) cells!
  35. 35. Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org
  36. 36. NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)National Science FoundationDepartment of Commerce
  37. 37. Technological Convergence NBIC Atoms Cells Nano Bio NBIC Cogno InfoNeurons Bits
  38. 38. Technological convergence is accelerating…… and everything is information
  39. 39. Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near • www.singularity.com • Bill Gates • Ley de Moore
  40. 40. www.top500.org
  41. 41. Moore’s Wall? ICn No!Log Scale IC5 1. 3D ICs IC4 IC3 2. Quantum IC2 computing IC1 3. Subatomic Transistor particles Thermionic Tube 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
  42. 42. 1. Nano (NBIC)
  43. 43. Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov
  44. 44. 2. Bio (NBIC)
  45. 45. The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
  46. 46. Dolly: the clone
  47. 47. Singapore: Biopolis 2012
  48. 48. Russia: ???
  49. 49. Korea: Hwang Woo-suk (Snuppy)
  50. 50. The attack of the clones?
  51. 51. Synthetic biology is born• Variola virus (smallpox) Genes: 197 Base pairs: 185,000• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria) Genes: 485 Base pairs: 580,000• Homo sapiens sapiens Genes: ~25,000 Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
  52. 52. 3. Info (NBIC)
  53. 53. MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
  54. 54. The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”• Law of Nodes (N units)• Law of Metcalfe (N x N conexions)• Law of Reed (exp.N Knowledge)
  55. 55. Global brain?
  56. 56. IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy! February 14-16, 2011
  57. 57. 4. Cogno (NBIC)
  58. 58. The triune brain: Paul MacLean, 1973• Reptilian (primitive): instincts• Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions• Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence
  59. 59. Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
  60. 60. Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
  61. 61. Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
  62. 62. What is a brain? • 1 brain • 1011 neurones • 1014 synapsis • 1017 computations (per second) • And the mind? • And the spirit? • And the soul?
  63. 63. Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
  64. 64. External brain implants
  65. 65. Robots in Japan and Korea
  66. 66. Asimo (Honda) evolution
  67. 67. Robots are good in Japan
  68. 68. Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
  69. 69. Humans and machines!Humans or machines?
  70. 70. Marvin Minsky (MIT):Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be us!
  71. 71. Bart Kosko, USC: Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency.Biology was just natures first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny!
  72. 72. Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans trans-monkeys?
  73. 73. Transhumanism, yes... but carefullyHomo sapiens sapiens
  74. 74. Superman?Christopher Reeve(paraplegic)
  75. 75. Stephen Hawking
  76. 76. Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
  77. 77. Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s
  78. 78. Space:the final frontier?
  79. 79. SpaceShipOne: Virgin Galactic 2012
  80. 80. The brain:the final frontier!
  81. 81. Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)
  82. 82. Light up the world
  83. 83. The world is one
  84. 84. Guru Cordeiro meditating in India(Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
  85. 85. ¡Muchas gracias!www.Cordeiro.org

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