José Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela ...
www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
Venezuela vs. Benesuela ?   Escenarios   Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100)   Benesuela Venezuel...
Venezuela: entre Suiza y Haití Escenarios?   www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000...
World Future Society  m
World Future Society  m
 
2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 México 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1
Mientras más rápido vamos, más lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
¿Podemos estudiar el futuro? ¿Podemos estudiar el  clima ? ¿Podemos estudiar las  estrellas ? ¿Podemos estudiar la  Tierra...
Del Mediterr á neo al  Pacífico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENE...
 
 
 
 
 
A new face for the world
A new behind for the world
China:  (Chung Kuo)
 
Singularity University
 
Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near <ul><li>www.singularity.com </li></ul><ul><li>Bill Gates </li></ul><ul><li>Le...
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,...
“ Android” Google Phone (gPhone)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces Th...
Japón: de sacapuntas  malos  a computadoras  buenas  en 30 años
Development  is faster and faster
 
Energy  “waves” : “decarbonization”
Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita <ul><li>La Edad de Piedra se acabó y  no  por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo s...
Tres  políticas  petroleras: <ul><li>Del pasado  (basada en precios) </li></ul><ul><li>Del presente  (basada en volúmenes)...
From manufacturing to  mindfacturing
We need to  add value
<ul><li>Finlandia </li></ul><ul><li>(siglo XIX) </li></ul><ul><li>País pobre </li></ul><ul><li>Atrasado </li></ul><ul><li>...
Bioenergy and  “eternal”  energy <ul><li>Photosynthesis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2  + 2 H 2 O +  light </li></ul></ul><ul...
NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for  1 MW to Full-Scale SSP  2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-202...
 
JAXA :  Space Solar Power Strategy
¿Qué es el futuro? <ul><li>¡El futuro ya no es </li></ul><ul><li>  lo que era antes! </li></ul><ul><li>Lo que hoy se vive ...
Attitudes towards the future <ul><li>Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future </li></ul><ul><li>Reactive ( fire fighter ) Res...
 
Sir Arthur  C. Clarke   with Jose Cordeiro
The Three Laws of  Sir Arthur C. Clarke <ul><li>First Law:   When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that someth...
Technologies of the  “past” <ul><li>30 years ago </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal computers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>20 years ...
Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org
NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence  NBIC   Nano Bits Atoms
Technological convergence  is accelerating… …  and everything is  information
Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near <ul><li>www.singularity.com </li></ul><ul><li>Bill Gates </li></ul><ul><li>Le...
www.top500.org
Moore’s Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5 ICn 1940  1960  1980  2000  2020  2040 <ul><li>3D ICs </li></...
1. Nano ( N BIC)
Nanotec h nolog y:   www.nano.gov
 
2. Bio (N B IC)
The   glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
 
Dolly: the  clone
Singapore:  Biopolis   2012
Russia:  ???
Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy )
 
The attack of the clones?
Synthetic biology  is born <ul><li>Variola virus (smallpox) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genes: 197 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ba...
3. Info (NB I C)
MIT  Media Lab:  $100 laptop
 
 
 
 
The 3 Laws of  “Knowledge” <ul><li>Law of Nodes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( N units ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Law of Metcalfe <...
Global brain?                                                                 
 
4. Cogno (NBI C )
The  triune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973 <ul><li>Reptilian (primitive):  instincts </li></ul><ul><li>Limbic (paleomammalian)...
Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
Paul Allen:  www.BrainAtlas.org
<ul><li>1 brain </li></ul><ul><li>10 11  neurones </li></ul><ul><li>10 14  synapsis </li></ul><ul><li>10 17  computations ...
Internal brain implants:  Cyberkinetics Inc.
External brain implants
Robots in Japan and Korea
Asimo (Honda) evolution
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Robots are  good  in Japan
 
Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
Humans  and  machines! Humans  or  machines?
Marvin Minsky  (MIT): Will robots inherit the earth?    Yes, but they will be us !
Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty...
Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans  trans-monkeys ?
 
Transhumanism, yes... but  carefully Homo sapiens  sapiens
Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic )
Stephen  Hawking
Michael J. Fox:  Back to the Future
Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s
Space: the final frontier?
SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011
The brain: the final frontier!
Yin-yang  阴 阳   (and more  yin-yang )
Light up  the world
 
The world is  one
Guru Cordeiro  meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
 
 
 
 
¡Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org
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El futuro. (jose cordeiro)

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El futuro. (jose cordeiro)

  1. 1. José Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela Fundador, Caracas, Venezuela Singularity University Profesor, NASA Ames, California, USA
  2. 2. www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  3. 3. Venezuela vs. Benesuela ? Escenarios Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100) Benesuela Venezuela www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  4. 4. Venezuela: entre Suiza y Haití Escenarios? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 0 Haití? Suiza? Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  5. 5. World Future Society m
  6. 6. World Future Society m
  7. 8. 2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 México 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1
  8. 9. Mientras más rápido vamos, más lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  9. 10. ¿Podemos estudiar el futuro? ¿Podemos estudiar el clima ? ¿Podemos estudiar las estrellas ? ¿Podemos estudiar la Tierra ? ¿Podemos estudiar el pasado ? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  10. 11. Del Mediterr á neo al Pacífico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  11. 17. A new face for the world
  12. 18. A new behind for the world
  13. 19. China: (Chung Kuo)
  14. 21. Singularity University
  15. 23. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near <ul><li>www.singularity.com </li></ul><ul><li>Bill Gates </li></ul><ul><li>Ley de Moore </li></ul>
  16. 25.
  17. 26.
  18. 27.
  19. 28.
  20. 34. Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days
  21. 35. “ Android” Google Phone (gPhone)
  22. 42. Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler
  23. 43. Japón: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 años
  24. 44. Development is faster and faster
  25. 46. Energy “waves” : “decarbonization”
  26. 47. Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
  27. 48. Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita <ul><li>La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto y no por falta de petróleo. </li></ul>www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  28. 49. Tres políticas petroleras: <ul><li>Del pasado (basada en precios) </li></ul><ul><li>Del presente (basada en volúmenes) </li></ul><ul><li>Del futuro (basada en valor agregado) </li></ul>www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  29. 50. From manufacturing to mindfacturing
  30. 51. We need to add value
  31. 52. <ul><li>Finlandia </li></ul><ul><li>(siglo XIX) </li></ul><ul><li>País pobre </li></ul><ul><li>Atrasado </li></ul><ul><li>Colonia </li></ul><ul><li>Idioma “bárbaro” </li></ul>
  32. 53. Bioenergy and “eternal” energy <ul><li>Photosynthesis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2 + 2 H 2 O + light </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-> (CH 2 O) + O 2 + H 2 O </li></ul></ul><ul><li>From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates </li></ul><ul><li>Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria </li></ul>
  33. 54. NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2002 Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5) Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) Technology Demos (TRL 6-7) LEGEND R&D Decision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7) Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP Technology Testbeds MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Component-Level Flight Experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Large structures for large apertures & solar sails Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments High Efficiency Arrays for S/C SSP Concept definition complete Ground Test very large deployable structures 1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT) High Power SEPS For Science Probes Lunar Power, Large SEPS High-Power GEO CommSats MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo SSP Model System Concept(s) MSC 4+ (2020+) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
  34. 56. JAXA : Space Solar Power Strategy
  35. 57. ¿Qué es el futuro? <ul><li>¡El futuro ya no es </li></ul><ul><li> lo que era antes! </li></ul><ul><li>Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha. </li></ul><ul><li>Mafalda </li></ul>www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
  36. 58. Attitudes towards the future <ul><li>Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future </li></ul><ul><li>Reactive ( fire fighter ) Respond </li></ul><ul><li>Preactive ( insurer ) Prepare </li></ul><ul><li>Proactive ( builder ) Create </li></ul>
  37. 60. Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
  38. 61. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke <ul><li>First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. </li></ul><ul><li>Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. </li></ul><ul><li>Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. </li></ul>
  39. 62. Technologies of the “past” <ul><li>30 years ago </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal computers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>20 years ago </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cell phones </li></ul></ul><ul><li>10 years ago </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Immortal (ageless) cells! </li></ul></ul>
  40. 63. Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org
  41. 64. NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
  42. 65. Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
  43. 66. Technological convergence is accelerating… … and everything is information
  44. 67. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near <ul><li>www.singularity.com </li></ul><ul><li>Bill Gates </li></ul><ul><li>Ley de Moore </li></ul>
  45. 68. www.top500.org
  46. 69. Moore’s Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5 ICn 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 <ul><li>3D ICs </li></ul><ul><li>Quantum computing </li></ul><ul><li>Subatomic particles </li></ul>Log Scale No!
  47. 70. 1. Nano ( N BIC)
  48. 71. Nanotec h nolog y: www.nano.gov
  49. 73. 2. Bio (N B IC)
  50. 74. The glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
  51. 76. Dolly: the clone
  52. 77. Singapore: Biopolis 2012
  53. 78. Russia: ???
  54. 79. Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy )
  55. 81. The attack of the clones?
  56. 82. Synthetic biology is born <ul><li>Variola virus (smallpox) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genes: 197 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Base pairs: 185,000 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genes: 485 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Base pairs: 580,000 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Homo sapiens sapiens </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genes: ~25,000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000 </li></ul></ul>
  57. 83. 3. Info (NB I C)
  58. 84. MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
  59. 89. The 3 Laws of “Knowledge” <ul><li>Law of Nodes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( N units ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Law of Metcalfe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( N x N conexions ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Law of Reed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( exp.N Knowledge ) </li></ul></ul>
  60. 90. Global brain?                                                                 
  61. 92. 4. Cogno (NBI C )
  62. 93. The triune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973 <ul><li>Reptilian (primitive): instincts </li></ul><ul><li>Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions </li></ul><ul><li>Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence </li></ul>
  63. 94. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
  64. 95. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
  65. 96. Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
  66. 97. <ul><li>1 brain </li></ul><ul><li>10 11 neurones </li></ul><ul><li>10 14 synapsis </li></ul><ul><li>10 17 computations </li></ul><ul><li>(per second) </li></ul><ul><li>And the mind? </li></ul><ul><li>And the spirit? </li></ul><ul><li>And the soul? </li></ul>What is a brain ?
  67. 98. Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
  68. 99. External brain implants
  69. 100. Robots in Japan and Korea
  70. 101. Asimo (Honda) evolution
  71. 110. Robots are good in Japan
  72. 112. Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
  73. 113. Humans and machines! Humans or machines?
  74. 114. Marvin Minsky (MIT): Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be us !
  75. 115. Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny!
  76. 116. Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans trans-monkeys ?
  77. 118. Transhumanism, yes... but carefully Homo sapiens sapiens
  78. 119. Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic )
  79. 120. Stephen Hawking
  80. 121. Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
  81. 122. Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s
  82. 123. Space: the final frontier?
  83. 124. SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011
  84. 125. The brain: the final frontier!
  85. 126. Yin-yang 阴 阳 (and more yin-yang )
  86. 127. Light up the world
  87. 129. The world is one
  88. 130. Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
  89. 135. ¡Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org

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