The Future Of Social Networks

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Full blog post at http://tinyurl.com/3yc8q5. Presented at Graphing Social Patterns, March 3, 2008 in San Diego. Theme: "Social networks will be like air".

Full blog post at http://tinyurl.com/3yc8q5. Presented at Graphing Social Patterns, March 3, 2008 in San Diego. Theme: "Social networks will be like air".

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  • 1. The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008
  • 2.  
  • 3. They are online with their social networks
  • 4.  
  • 5. Theme Social networks will be like air.
  • 6. Components of social networks
    • Profile
    • Relationships
    • Activities
    • Business model
    Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value
  • 7. My multiple identities
  • 8. Universal identity
    • [email_address]
    • [email_address]
    • Mobile number
  • 9. Universal identity foundations
    • Federation (OpenID approach)
    • A few major players will serve as major federation focal points
      • Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
    • All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together
      • Data Portability Group is the beginning
  • 10. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
    • “ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:
    • Ownership of their own personal information, including:
      • their own profile data
      • the list of people they are connected to
      • the activity stream of content they create;
    • Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and
    • Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”
    • - Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington
    • http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
  • 11. My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group
  • 12. My real social graph is much more complex
  • 13. Let’s end the insanity
  • 14. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo
  • 15. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps
  • 16. Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
  • 17. What people do today on social networks
  • 18. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
  • 19. But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”
  • 20. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere
  • 21. The under-rated value of networks
  • 22. Endorsement value depends on your network
    • Your authority on the specific topic
    • Your network’s interest and authority on the topic
    • The trust level among your network on the topic
  • 23. The future business model for social networks
    • Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
    • Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
    • Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals
    * From Marian Salzman, JWT
  • 24. Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks
  • 25. Recommendations
    • Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation
    • Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in
    • Develop social applications that have meaning
    • Integrate social networks into existing activities
    • Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
  • 26. Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com