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2022
POLICY
IMPERATIVES
TO SPUR
GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
Mr. Ian Durant,
Director, Economics Department
IN REVIEW
GROWTH
2021
GDP
Growth
Estimates
3.2%
SERVICE
EXPORTERS
2.7%
COMMODITY
EXPORTERS
3.0%
REGIONAL
3.2%
+
GROWTH
Service Exporters
2.7%
GROWTH
+
Commodity Exporters
Guyana
Continued growth in
mining and quarrying
industry driven by
crude oil extraction.
2021
2020
19.9%
Suriname
Reduced purchasing power
following fiscal consolidation
and exchange rate
depreciation; protracted
lockdowns and curfews.
-3.5%
2021
2020
Trinidad and Tobago
Mandated closure of
service sector entities;
lower natural gas
production.
-2.9%
2021
2020 -7.4%
43.5% -15.9%
Expenditure containment
and Growth
2018 2019 2020 2021
-
FISCAL
Debt
66.5 64.8
82.5
80.5
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)
Biggest Changes
78.5%
89.5%
Saint Vincent
and the
Grenadines
104.8%
127.9%
Belize
128.9%
147.7%
Suriname
Average Regional Debt
(% of GDP)
97.0%
102.1%
Commonwealth
of
Dominica
OUTLOOK
Risks to the Outlook
There are downside
risks to the outlook
OUTLOOK
Inflation
Price pressures due to logistical
challenges and resource constraints will
challenge recovery efforts and
disproportionately affect vulnerable
groups.
New COVID-19 Variants
Growth prospects could recede if new
variants emerge and slow the
recovery.
Geopolitical Tensions
In a time of rising inequality and
widening paths of growth – any
unforeseen shocks threatens to be
more contagious and long lasting
across the globe.
Rising Interest Rates
Monetary policy tethered on reversing the
COVID-19 low-growth/high inflation reality:
U-turn in interest rates or accommodative
stance in spite of inflationary pressures.
Adverse Climate Events
The increased occurrence and intensity of
natural disasters within the region remain a
direct threat to both regional growth and
debt sustainability.
BMC
Growth
Outlook
2022
OUTLOOK
Highest increases expected in:
Guyana Anguilla
Barbados
Saint Lucia
+ 47.5% + 7.1%
+ 7.6%
+ 8.1%
Average projected
growth in BMCs
9.1%
Service Exporters Commodity Exporters
ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI GUY SUR TT
7.1
5.0 6.3 7.6 6.5
4.0
5.0 3.8 4.5 4.3
0.3
6.4
4.5
8.1
4.0 4.8
47.5
1.8
5.4
Debt and Fiscal Outlook 2022
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
20
40
60
80
100
Debt (% GDP)
Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters
SUSTAINABILITY
THRESHOLD
As the region
continues to
recover, we expect
an improvement in
regional debt
dynamics and the
intensification of a
trend towards
sustainability.
OUTLOOK
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
The continued advancement
of standards of living and the attainment
of the SDGs must rest
on a platform of sustained,
diversified export growth.
“
“
Policy Imperatives
POLICY
Improved
logistics
infrastructure
Facilitating exploitation
of renewable energy Modernising
education
Regional cooperation
and integration
Greater efficiency of
regulatory frameworks
Digitalization
2021 Economic Review and 2022 Outlook

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2021 Economic Review and 2022 Outlook

  • 1. 2022 POLICY IMPERATIVES TO SPUR GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT Mr. Ian Durant, Director, Economics Department
  • 5. 2.7% GROWTH + Commodity Exporters Guyana Continued growth in mining and quarrying industry driven by crude oil extraction. 2021 2020 19.9% Suriname Reduced purchasing power following fiscal consolidation and exchange rate depreciation; protracted lockdowns and curfews. -3.5% 2021 2020 Trinidad and Tobago Mandated closure of service sector entities; lower natural gas production. -2.9% 2021 2020 -7.4% 43.5% -15.9%
  • 6. Expenditure containment and Growth 2018 2019 2020 2021 - FISCAL Debt 66.5 64.8 82.5 80.5 Central Government Debt (% of GDP) Biggest Changes 78.5% 89.5% Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 104.8% 127.9% Belize 128.9% 147.7% Suriname Average Regional Debt (% of GDP) 97.0% 102.1% Commonwealth of Dominica
  • 8. Risks to the Outlook There are downside risks to the outlook OUTLOOK Inflation Price pressures due to logistical challenges and resource constraints will challenge recovery efforts and disproportionately affect vulnerable groups. New COVID-19 Variants Growth prospects could recede if new variants emerge and slow the recovery. Geopolitical Tensions In a time of rising inequality and widening paths of growth – any unforeseen shocks threatens to be more contagious and long lasting across the globe. Rising Interest Rates Monetary policy tethered on reversing the COVID-19 low-growth/high inflation reality: U-turn in interest rates or accommodative stance in spite of inflationary pressures. Adverse Climate Events The increased occurrence and intensity of natural disasters within the region remain a direct threat to both regional growth and debt sustainability.
  • 9. BMC Growth Outlook 2022 OUTLOOK Highest increases expected in: Guyana Anguilla Barbados Saint Lucia + 47.5% + 7.1% + 7.6% + 8.1% Average projected growth in BMCs 9.1% Service Exporters Commodity Exporters ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI GUY SUR TT 7.1 5.0 6.3 7.6 6.5 4.0 5.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 0.3 6.4 4.5 8.1 4.0 4.8 47.5 1.8 5.4
  • 10. Debt and Fiscal Outlook 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 20 40 60 80 100 Debt (% GDP) Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters SUSTAINABILITY THRESHOLD As the region continues to recover, we expect an improvement in regional debt dynamics and the intensification of a trend towards sustainability. OUTLOOK
  • 12. The continued advancement of standards of living and the attainment of the SDGs must rest on a platform of sustained, diversified export growth. “ “
  • 13. Policy Imperatives POLICY Improved logistics infrastructure Facilitating exploitation of renewable energy Modernising education Regional cooperation and integration Greater efficiency of regulatory frameworks Digitalization