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Present and
Future
Requisites for
Prosperity
Mr. Ian Durant
Director, Economics Department
2023 ECONOMIC REVIEW
& 2024 OUTLOOK
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
ECONOMIC REVIEW 2023
Our BMCs have faced
several disruptions to
social and economic
progress, including the
COVID-19 pandemic and
consequent deterioration
in macroeconomic
conditions.
Economic Review 2023
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
0.8
-8.4
4.4
11.0
6.7
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
6.7%
CDB estimates that
the region grew by
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
ECONOMIC REVIEW 2023
By end-2023, 11 of our
BMCs are estimated to
have recovered to pre-
pandemic (2019)
output levels, both in
real and nominal
terms.
Commodity
Exporters Growth
2022 2023
62.3%
32.9%
Guyana
2022 2023
2.1%
2.5%
Suriname
2022 2023
1.5%
2.7%
Trinidad & Tobago
+13.8%
Commodity Exporters
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Anguilla Antigua
&
Barbuda
The
Bahamas
Barbado
s
Belize British
Virgin
Islands
Cayman
Islands
Dominica Grenada Haiti Jamaica Montserrat Saint
Kitts &
Nevis
Saint
Lucia
Saint
Vincent &
the
Grenadine
s
2022 2023E
9.6%
6.2%
3.5%
4.4%
4.4%
0.8%
4.9%
3.1%
5.5%
-1.9%
2.9%
6.9%
4.8% 3.3%
5.8%
Service Exporters Growth +2.4%
Service Exporters
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Service Exporters
Growth
Visitor Arrivals by Country 2023
(% of 2019 Arrivals)
+2.4%
Service Exporters
100.6%
93.6%
94.7%
91.9%
92.4%
86.4%
85.4%
76.8%
109.3%
108.8%
69.6%
77.3%
90.0%
92.5%
136.2%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI
Thousands
2019 2023
Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Sep Jan-Sep
Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Oct Jan-Dec
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
Haiti continues to
grapple with persistent
instability and high
inflation. Both of which
contributed to weak
economic performance
in 2023.
Unemployment Rates 2023
The
Bahamas
8.5%
9.1%
8.8%
Barbados
9.8%
7.6%
8.7%
4.3%
2.7%
3.4%
Belize
2.9%
1.9%
2.4%
5.6%
3.3%
4.4%
4.6%
3.4%
3.9%
Cayman
Islands
Jamaica
Trinidad
and Tobago
Qtr. 1-Qtr. 3
Fall 2023
May2023
Qtr. 1-Qtr. 3
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
MALE FEMALE
TOTAL
4.8
5.1
3.8
5.2
4.4
5.3
4.0
2.9
2.8
36.8
6.5
-1.7
4.0
4.3
4.9
51.6
4.6
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Anguilla
Antigua and Barbuda
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Cayman Islands
Dominica
Grenada
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis
Saint Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Average Annual Inflation (%)
4.2%
Average Inflation
trended around
2022 2023
*Jan-Sep 2023
Excl. Suriname & Haiti
Jan-Sep
Jan-Dec
Jan-Nov
Jan-Dec
Jan-Oct
Jan-Dec
Jan-Jun
Jan-Sep
Jan-Sep
Jan-Dec
Jan-Dec
Jan-Sep
Jan-Sep
Jan-Nov
Jan-Sep
Jan-Dec
Jan-Dec
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Governments also
contended with elevated
borrowing costs amid tight
financing conditions.
Nevertheless, with the
continued strengthening in
economic activity,
government revenues and
overall fiscal outcomes
improved.
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Central Government Debt (% GDP)
69.4
63.7
56.6
51.8
76.6
64.8
52.2
43.6
65.8
63.1
59.1 57.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters
The Region’s average debt-to-GDP ratio continued to trend downward, after
spiking in 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024
Continued expansion
of the tourism industry
as well as acceleration
of oil production in
Guyana will drive
regional growth in
2024.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
+8.6%
Projected Regional
Growth in 2024
ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE GUY HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG SUR TT
+18.2%
Commodity
Exporters
+2.1%
Service
Exporters
5.3%
5.5%
2.4% 3.4% 3.5%
2.1%
2.2%
3.8% 3.7%
38.6%
0.7%
1.3%
4.9% 4.4%
4.1% 5.3%
2.8% 2.5%
Economic Outlook 2024
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Sluggish global
growth and
persistent high
inflation.
Risks to the Outlook
Escalations in
existing geopolitical
conflicts or the
emergence of new
conflicts.
Supply chain disruptions
and rekindled volatility in
global commodity prices.
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
Present and Future Requisites
for Prosperity
CDB recognizes that
higher and sustained
levels of economic
growth is needed to
achieve greater
prosperity for the
region’s citizens .
FUTURE REQUISITES FOR
PROSPERITY
Climate
Resilient
Infrastructure
Enhancing
Digitalization
A.I.
1
Adequate, climate-
resilient social and
economic
infrastructure to
facilitate growth across
sectors.
2
Improving the
institutional
frameworks within
which businesses
operate, especially
through digitalization.
3
The adoption of Artificial
Intelligence.
Future Requisites for Prosperity
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Strengthening
our Human
Resources
Renewable
Energy
Enhancing
Regional Logistics
and Trade
4
Deepening the human
resource base and
reducing skills gaps.
5
Developing a mix of
renewable sources of
energy, to strengthen
energy security, reduce
energy costs and build
competitiveness of our
economies.
6
Enhancing logistics
quality to augment intra-
regional trade, which
can develop regional
value chains while
reducing import
dependence and
enhancing food security.
Future Requisites for Prosperity
Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
Present and
Future
Requisites for
Prosperity

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Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity in the Caribbean

  • 1. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity Mr. Ian Durant Director, Economics Department 2023 ECONOMIC REVIEW & 2024 OUTLOOK
  • 2. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity ECONOMIC REVIEW 2023 Our BMCs have faced several disruptions to social and economic progress, including the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.
  • 3. Economic Review 2023 Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity 0.8 -8.4 4.4 11.0 6.7 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6.7% CDB estimates that the region grew by
  • 4. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity ECONOMIC REVIEW 2023 By end-2023, 11 of our BMCs are estimated to have recovered to pre- pandemic (2019) output levels, both in real and nominal terms.
  • 5. Commodity Exporters Growth 2022 2023 62.3% 32.9% Guyana 2022 2023 2.1% 2.5% Suriname 2022 2023 1.5% 2.7% Trinidad & Tobago +13.8% Commodity Exporters Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 6. -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda The Bahamas Barbado s Belize British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Dominica Grenada Haiti Jamaica Montserrat Saint Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent & the Grenadine s 2022 2023E 9.6% 6.2% 3.5% 4.4% 4.4% 0.8% 4.9% 3.1% 5.5% -1.9% 2.9% 6.9% 4.8% 3.3% 5.8% Service Exporters Growth +2.4% Service Exporters Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 7. Service Exporters Growth Visitor Arrivals by Country 2023 (% of 2019 Arrivals) +2.4% Service Exporters 100.6% 93.6% 94.7% 91.9% 92.4% 86.4% 85.4% 76.8% 109.3% 108.8% 69.6% 77.3% 90.0% 92.5% 136.2% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI Thousands 2019 2023 Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Oct Jan-Dec Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 8. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity Haiti continues to grapple with persistent instability and high inflation. Both of which contributed to weak economic performance in 2023.
  • 9. Unemployment Rates 2023 The Bahamas 8.5% 9.1% 8.8% Barbados 9.8% 7.6% 8.7% 4.3% 2.7% 3.4% Belize 2.9% 1.9% 2.4% 5.6% 3.3% 4.4% 4.6% 3.4% 3.9% Cayman Islands Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Qtr. 1-Qtr. 3 Fall 2023 May2023 Qtr. 1-Qtr. 3 Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity MALE FEMALE TOTAL
  • 10. 4.8 5.1 3.8 5.2 4.4 5.3 4.0 2.9 2.8 36.8 6.5 -1.7 4.0 4.3 4.9 51.6 4.6 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize Cayman Islands Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Average Annual Inflation (%) 4.2% Average Inflation trended around 2022 2023 *Jan-Sep 2023 Excl. Suriname & Haiti Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jan-Dec Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Nov Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 11. Governments also contended with elevated borrowing costs amid tight financing conditions. Nevertheless, with the continued strengthening in economic activity, government revenues and overall fiscal outcomes improved. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 12. Central Government Debt (% GDP) 69.4 63.7 56.6 51.8 76.6 64.8 52.2 43.6 65.8 63.1 59.1 57.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters The Region’s average debt-to-GDP ratio continued to trend downward, after spiking in 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 13. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 Continued expansion of the tourism industry as well as acceleration of oil production in Guyana will drive regional growth in 2024.
  • 14. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 +8.6% Projected Regional Growth in 2024 ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE GUY HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG SUR TT +18.2% Commodity Exporters +2.1% Service Exporters 5.3% 5.5% 2.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2% 3.8% 3.7% 38.6% 0.7% 1.3% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 5.3% 2.8% 2.5% Economic Outlook 2024 Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 15. Sluggish global growth and persistent high inflation. Risks to the Outlook Escalations in existing geopolitical conflicts or the emergence of new conflicts. Supply chain disruptions and rekindled volatility in global commodity prices. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 16. Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity CDB recognizes that higher and sustained levels of economic growth is needed to achieve greater prosperity for the region’s citizens . FUTURE REQUISITES FOR PROSPERITY
  • 17. Climate Resilient Infrastructure Enhancing Digitalization A.I. 1 Adequate, climate- resilient social and economic infrastructure to facilitate growth across sectors. 2 Improving the institutional frameworks within which businesses operate, especially through digitalization. 3 The adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Future Requisites for Prosperity Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity
  • 18. Strengthening our Human Resources Renewable Energy Enhancing Regional Logistics and Trade 4 Deepening the human resource base and reducing skills gaps. 5 Developing a mix of renewable sources of energy, to strengthen energy security, reduce energy costs and build competitiveness of our economies. 6 Enhancing logistics quality to augment intra- regional trade, which can develop regional value chains while reducing import dependence and enhancing food security. Future Requisites for Prosperity Present and Future Requisites for Prosperity