2. What do we know
about global climate change?
SMALL changes in temperature
have HUGE global consequences
3. Hurricane Catarina as it approached the Brazilian shore at
midday on 27 March 2004.
(Illustration courtesy Greg Holland; satellite data courtesy NOAA/University of Wisconsin.)
The first recorded hurricane in the South Atlantic
4. Hurricane Ivan
just before striking
Grenada
Central Pressure 956 mbar
Peak GustWind ~135 mph
“The most intense
hurricane ever recorded so
close to the equator in the
North Atlantic” – NHC
5. A newWorld Surface
Wind Gust Record
was registered at
the Paso Real de San Diego
meteorological station (78317)
in Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
during hurricane Gustav.
The Dines
pressure tube anemometer
recorded a gust of
340 km/h (=211mph).
Hurricane Gustav 2008
19. Comparison of Model and Historical Hurricane Frequencies
by Category in the Eastern Caribbean.
19
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5
Number
of
Hurricanes/Year
Hurricane Category
1900-2007
Model(with 10% wind speed adjustment)
20. Effect of Increasing Annual Frequencies of Category 4 and
5 Hurricanes on the Peak Gust Wind Speeds Hazard Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
10 100 1000 10000
Peak
Gust
Wind
Speed
in
Open
Terrain
(mph)
Return Period (Years)
Hurricane Hazard Based on Current Climate History
Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1,Cat 1=1,Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=2, Cat 5=2
Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1,Cat 1=1,Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=3, Cat 5=3
21. Percentage Increase in Basic Wind Speed in Eastern Caribbean vs
Percentage Increase in Annual Rates of Cat 4 and 5 Hurricanes
0%
5%
10%
15%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Increase
in
Basic
Wind
Speed
Increase in Annual Frequency of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
Category II Buildings
Category III and IV Buildings
22. Wind Pressure (kPa) Wind Speed
(m/sec)
qref q100 Vref
Grenada 0.89 1.06 38
St Vincent&
the
Grenadines
0.90 1.09 38
St Lucia 0.90 1.11 38
Dominica 0.93 1.08 39
Montserrat 0.97 1.11 40
St Kitts &
Nevis
0.97 1.06 40
Antigua &
Barbuda
0.94 1.03 40
Anguilla 1.00 1.14 41
British
Virgin
Islands
1.05 1.19 42
29. Settlement Point, Bahamas 0.32 (0.18-0.47) 0.82 (0.43-1.32)
Glbara, Cuba 0.27 (0.14-0.41) 0.74 (0.36-1.22)
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 0.29 (0.16-0.43) 0.79 (0.41-1.28)
Port Royal, Jamaica 0.30 (0.10-0.51) 0.81 (0.31-1.40)
Port Au Prince, Haiti 0.28 (0.08-0.50) 0.79 (0.29-1.37)
Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic 0.28 (0.07-0.50) 0.77 (0.26-1.37).91)
Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico 0.27 (0.16-0.39) o.76 (0.39-1.24)
Pointe-A-Pitre, Guadeloupe 0.28 (0.08-0.49) 0.78 (0.28-1.37).98)
Puerto Castilla, Honduras 0.35 (0.16-0.55) 0.91 (0.41-1.49}
Puerto Limon, Costa Rica 0.27 (0.13-0.43) 0.76 (0.34-1.30)
Cristobal, Panama 0.31(0.19-0.43) 0.82 (0.47-1.31)
Location 2050 2100
Probabilistic sea-level projections assuming unabated emissions.
Median values given with credible intervals (5th- 95th percentiles) in
parentheses. Units of meters. – Benjamin Strauss and Scott Kulp
30. MaximumWave Heights (50‐year return)
CDMP
9 N
89.5
W
23 N
59
W
Wave Heights
Meters
Feet
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5 10 15 20 25
32. Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
10Year
Return
Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
25Year
Return
Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
50Year
Return
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
100Year
Return
Surge Heights
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 10 15 20
Meters
Feet
Belize Surge
The many low Cays of
Belize are quite
vulnerable to waves and
surge, and the low coast
of the northern half of
the country is easily
flooded.
USAID‐OAS CDMP
39. Whereas an
overall drying or
wetter trend is
not evident, the
number of dry
days between
rain events is
increasing, and
when rain
occurs it tends
to be heavier
PRECIS-Caribbean Project – Partners: UWI, (Mona, Cave Hill) INSMET, AdeKUS,
5C’s, ONAMET, Hadley Centre (UK)
1961-2010 1986-2010
40. General
tendency for
drying (main
Caribbean basin)
by end of the
century. Drying
between 25%
and 30%
Possibly wetter far north Caribbean. Drying exceeds
natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!
PRECIS-Caribbean Project – Partners: UWI, (Mona, Cave Hill) INSMET, AdeKUS,
5C’s, ONAMET, Hadley Centre (UK)
50. Maximum recorded intensity for
given durations for 7 stations in
Belize together with IDF curves for
Miami for 2, 10, 50 and 100 year
return periods – CHaRIM Project
56. Conceptualization of climate change impacts on the theoretical design
compromise for typical urban infrastructure. (Jean‐Luc Martel et al)
57.
58.
59. Management Carbon (Mc)
the off‐site cost of managing the delivery of a
project – customer, consultants, contractors,
etc
60. Embodied Carbon (Ec)
the carbon impact of the extraction,
production and assembly of the raw
materials and components of a project
Carib Cement Company
62. Operating Carbon (Oc)
the cost of operating and maintaining the
building through its working life
APUA RO Plant
63. Deconstruction Carbon (Dc)
the impact of taking apart the building at the
end of its life, and recovering materials for
reuse or recycling, land‐filling or other
disposal
64. Source: Partially adapted from A Quick Reference Guide for Teams to
Reduce their Project’s Embodied Carbon, International Living Future
Institute, 2020.
65. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
1. Predesign & Site Selection
66. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
2. Conceptual & Schematic Design
67.
68.
69. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
3. Design Development
& Construction Documents
70. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
4. Bidding & Procurement
71. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
5. Construction
72. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
6. Occupancy:
Maintenance, Renovations &Tenant Fit‐Outs