A overview of migration statistics, the sources, their strengths and weaknesses.

1. Migration
Where to go for what you need
Ms Baljit Bains, Demography & Policy Analysis Manager
Baljit.bains@london.gov.uk
Tel: 020 7983 4613

2. GLA Intelligence Unit
Data Analysis, Monitoring, Visualising ,
Understanding London…..
– Population/Demographic information
– Crime analysis,
– Poverty & deprivation
– Education
– Crime
– Visualisations – mapping, dashboard
– Economics
– Evidence base for policy, strategy and service delivery

3. We need to talk about migration…
London is attractive to migrants
– Other parts of the UK
– European Union
– Commonwealth countries
– Elsewhere in the world
Over 300 languages spoken
London is a massive travel hub
London home to many MNC
– Global trade and business connections
……………..……London the World City

4. We need to talk about migration…
The driver of much demographic change in London.
30+% of London’s population is born oversees.
Around 40+% of London’s working age population is born
oversees.
56% of London births to mothers born outside the UK.
(25% nationally)
Considerable variation across London but nowhere is
immune to the impacts of migration
……………a better understanding is crucial

5. We need to talk about migration…
Most information from admin sources, surveys
– Definitions can vary (long term, short-term)
– Types of ‘migrant’ vary
– Frequency of releases vary
Data source not designed to capture migration
primary
– Causes issues of interpretation
– Figures are ‘different’
– Misinformation, misinterpretation, misunderstandings

6. We need to talk about migration…
GLA primary interest
Types of migrants; EU, economics migrants,
Flows information: trends, changes in nature
Migration by reason: work, study, other
Population churn/turnover
Migrant stock figures
Migrant characteristics: education, employment, housing, length
of stay etc
Diversity issues
Policy impacts ie visa rule changes, students
Role of London in global migration issues.

7. Key Definitions
Immigrant
– Person arriving to take up residence in a country for at least 12 months.
– Person with country of birth outside the UK.
– Person with nationality/citizenship of a country outside the UK.
Emigrant
– Person leaving their usual country of residence to take up residence in
another country for at least 12 months.
Migrant switcher
– Person who intended to stay in a country for at least 12 months but left
sooner.
Visitor switcher
– Person who intended to stay in a country for less than 12 months but stay
longer than a year.

8. Internal Migration Sources
NHS Central Register (NHSCR)
Patient Register Data Service (PRDS)
– Both act as a proxy to internal migration.
– Requires registration with a GP
– Reliable for the young and old – need GP access.
– Less reliable for males aged 25-40 – do not register/re-register.
– List inflation problematic for oversees emigration

9. London: Internal Migration Trends
NHS Central Register Inter-Regional Moves

10. International Migration Sources
International Passenger Survey (IPS)
– Responsibility of Office for National Statistics
– voluntary survey of people arriving and departing from the full
set of ports and routes through/on which travellers can travel
between the UK and overseas.
– The IPS is a continuous survey conducted 362 days a year.
– The survey has been conducted annually since 1961. Annual and
quarterly publications have been produced since 1970 and
monthly since 1993. Monthly data from the IPS are published,
but a single quarter is the minimum period over which detailed
analysis of the data can be made.

11. International Passenger Survey (IPS)
– Survey is intention based…these can change.
– Excludes land routes between Ireland and the UK
– Excludes Asylum seekers and their dependent.
– Approximately 250,000 responding passengers per annum but only around 1-
2% of these report intentions that comply with definitions of migrants.
– National Inflows for the 2004 statistics were based upon 2801 interviews and
for the outflow, on 755 interviews (standard error 4.7%).
– Disaggregate to countries and figures can be based on very low numbers ie
estimate of a net 3,000 inflow from the Caribbean was based on the
difference between 28 interviews in and 6 interviews out.
– data can only be analysed and tabulated by very gross aggregated categories
of (for example) country of origin and citizenship, purpose of visit, and broad
age groups.
– Migration Statistics Improvement Programme has implemented improvements,
boosting surveys at regional airports, using other data sources to sense check
IPS.

12. International Passenger Survey (IPS)
Long Term International Migration (LTIM)
– Estimates produced by combining IPS, Home Office data on
asylum seekers, migration to and from Northern Ireland and
adjustment for visitor and migrant switchers.

13. International Migration Sources…cont
Flag 4
– International in-migrants who register with a NHS GP.
– Added to records mid-year to mid-year.
– Flag is lost once you move within the UK.
National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos)
– NINos allocated to overseas nationals entering the UK.
– Limited country level details is available.
– Responsibility of DWP.
– Only newly issued numbers are recorded.

14. UK and London: International Migration Trends
Long Term International Migration (LTIM)

15. UK: Accession 8 Migration Trends
International Passenger Survey (IPS)

16. London: International Migration Trends
National Insurance Number Registrations (NINOs)

17. England and London: International Migration Trends
GP Registrations: Flag 4

18. Spotlight on 2011 Census
Every 10 years.
Self completion.
Will provide count of residents and visitors in United
Kingdom as at 27 March 2011.
Main counts of migrants are derived from question on
person’s address one year before census day.
Gives address in UK, or country in rest of world.
Same question as 2001 but 2011 has specific tick box to
identify student moves.

19. Spotlight on 2011 Census
Also have Country of Birth question for persons not born
in UK. This is as in 2001, 1991 and 1981.
For 2011, additional question on time of most recent
arrival in UK for these persons.
– can be used to derive the length of time in UK for international
migrants.
– Confusing if time spent in other countries.

20. Spotlight on 2011 Census
New question on intention to stay for new migrants
– can determine if migrants are short-term (less than 6 months/6
to 12 months) or long-term (one year or more).
Household questions also identify visitors to the UK and
UK residents who were temporarily outside UK on Census
Day.

21. Spotlight on 2011 Census
2011 census also identified persons living at a second
address for part of the year.
– Students at term time address v domicile address.
– Armed forces
– Boarders
Can improve the quality of migration flows derived from
census.

22. Strengths of Census
Complete coverage of UK population.
Ability to produce very detailed results:
– Very small local areas
– Detailed classifications eg country of birth based on write-in
responses
– Ability to cross tabulate by range of topics: eg migrants by
health and disability
Stable questions between censuses gives comparable
figures over time.

23. …and weaknesses
Timeliness: main results from 2011 not expected until late
2012.
Self completion.
Frequency: snapshot once every ten years means some
trends eg migration from A8 countries can be entirely
missed.
Acceptability: is census still the right way to collect data
Future: ONS currently working on ‘Beyond 2011’
programme.

24. Use of Census data in GLA demography
Themed Analysis
Historical analysis
Geographical Analysis
Visualisations: Maps and themed dashboards.
Some outputs will be specially commissioned specifically for London.
Timing of these not yet known.
Detailed statistics on origins and destinations of migrants will be
produced later (probably some time in 2013)
Detailed census migration counts used as starting point for GLA
migration models.
Breakdowns by age and sex, ethnic group and country or region of
origin.

25. Publication of statistics from 2011 Census
July 2012 head counts stats by LA.
Univariate counts expected from late 2012
Counts of numbers of people/ households moving into
and out of each area in the year before census day.
Counts of students at term-time address
For persons born outside UK:
– Country of Birth
– Year of arrival/age on arrival in UK

26. Spotlight on APS
Annual Population Survey
Introduced in 2004
Major survey which comprises key variables from the
Labour Force Survey (LFS)
The APS aims to provide enhanced annual data for UK,
covering a target sample of at least 510 economically
active persons for each Unitary Authority (UA)/Local
Authority District (LAD) and at least 450 economically
active persons in each Greater London Borough.

27. Spotlight on APS
Indicators include:
– Age inc ages of dependent children
– Family unit and households inc dependents and relationships to HoH.
– Nationality and Country of Birth
– Length of stay inc separate responses for dependents and other household
members.
– Disability
– Ethnic group
– Health (current main and past problems)
– Qualifications, education and apprenticeships
– Industry
– Occupation

28. Spotlight on APS
Access is via NOMIS for Labour Market specific tables
End user license available from Economic and Social Data
Service.
Special license for APS from ESDS but restricted to
approved researchers (approved by ONS)
London specific analysis reported by GLA.

29. Births (1982-2010): England & Wales and
London

30. Births by CoB of parent
56% of London births to mothers born outside the UK.
(25% nationally)
42% of national births ot non UK born mothers are in
London. (34% of Londoners are born overseas, London
destination for 30% of international in-migrants )
Newham was the local authority with the highest
proportion of births to non-UK born women (76.4%)

31. % Births to % Births to
Overseas Overseas
mothers mothers
Newham 76.4 Merton 55.8
Brent 74.3 Lambeth 55.8
Westminster 73.1 Barnet 55.6
Kensington and Chelsea 70.8 Greenwich 53.7
Ealing 69.9 Lewisham 52.6
Harrow 68.1 Hillingdon 52.5
Tower Hamlets 66.2 Hackney and City of London 51.9
Haringey 64.8 Islington 51.8
Hounslow 64.1 Wandsworth 48.3
Waltham Forest 62.9 Croydon 47.4
Camden 60.8 Kingston upon Thames 41.8
Southwark 59.8 Richmond upon Thames 37.4
Redbridge 59.3 Sutton 34.1
Enfield 58.8 Bexley 28.9
Barking and Dagenham 57.5 Bromley 25.9
Hammersmith and Fulham 56.3 Havering 20.1

32. Provisional vs Final Data
Provisional
– ONS: “good early indication of migration trends”.
Final
– Takes account of adjustments and updates to Civil Aviation
Authority and Department for Transport information.
– Adjustments and updates used to weight the observed data by
the IPS.
Differences between the two are minimal

33. Data releases since May 2011
May 2011
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report
– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE September 2011
June 2011
– Flag 4 for mid-2009 to mid-2010
July 2011
– NHSCR for YE September 2010
August 2011
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report
– Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP) update
– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE December 2011
October 2011
– NHSCR for YE December 2010
November 2011
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report
– Final IPS and LTIM for mid-year and calendar year 2010
– NHSCR for YE March 2011
February 2012
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report
– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE June 2011
– Quarterly NINo registrations to September 2011
– NHSCR for YE June 2011

34. Future data releases to November 2012
March 2012
– Final MSIP report
May 2012
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report and related data
– Quarterly NINo registrations to December 2011
June 2012
– Flag 4 for mid-2010 to mid-2011
August 2012
– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report and related data
November 2012
– Final IPS and LTIM tables for 2011
– Provisional IPS and LTIM tables for YE March 2012
Plus additional migration data available in ONS Mid 2011 estimates (Sept
2012) and Subnational population projections (March 2012 and Oct/Nov
2012)

35. Scanning the horizon…
Changes in visa rules and immigration policy
– Abolition Post study work route
– Tighter criteria on Tier 3 and Tier 4 migrants
Changes to housing benefit and universal credit
Global events that add to refugee and asylum numbers
and their dependents.
Impact of economic downturn both domestic and globally.
Impact of tuition fees and changes to eligibility criteria for
oversees students.

36. Website Sources
International migration:
– http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Interna
tional+Migration
Internal migration:
– http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Migrati
on+within+the+UK
Department for Work and Pensions (NINos):
– http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/niall/index.php?page=ni
no_allocation

37. Website Sources
APS on NOMIS
http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/605.aspx
APS from ESDS
http://www.esds.ac.uk/government/aps/