One of the central goals for the province of New Brunswick is to boost economic development by increasing labour market participation, and immigration is key to this plan. However, while NB has welcomed a growing number of immigrants over time, a substantial number still choose to leave the province years after landing. This raises questions, such as, “Who decides to stay? Who decides to leave? And what factors influence these decisions?” Understanding the backgrounds and experiences of immigrants residing in NB may help the province address challenges related to immigrant retention. Since there is a well-established link between mobility and economic opportunity, focusing on the entry streams and economic experiences of immigrants in NB may shed light on a correlation between experiences and retention. NB-IRDT’s 2021 publications on immigrant retention do just that. Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick (McDonald & Miah) estimates the retention rates of all immigrants who intended to arrive in the province by immigration stream, and Immigrant Income and Labour Market Outcomes (Boco et al.) examines the economic outcomes and retention rates of immigrants to investigate trends and determinants of income and retention. Comparing these two reports allows us to highlight similarities and differences in the datasets, associated methodologies, and results. We aim for the findings of these reports to contribute to evidence-based assessments of provincial immigration policies and efforts, while presenting detailed descriptive and empirical evidence on the evolution of immigrant retention and immigrants’ post-landing labour market experiences in NB.

1. Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick:
an analysis using linked Federal-
Provincial administrative data
July, 2021 l Ted McDonald, Director NB-IRDT

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & PROJECT INFORMATION
This priority project was undertaken by the New Brunswick
Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) at the
request of the Government of New Brunswick, Department
of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour (PETL).
Funding for this project was provided by PETL as part of a five-year research
agreement with NB-IRDT.
This project uses prepared person-level data from PETL, the Department of
Health, and Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada accessed in the NB-
IRDT secure data lab at UNB Fredericton
The views expressed in this study do not necessarily represent those of the Government
of New Brunswick, or their partners, or of Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada.
2

3. Introduction &
Key Findings

4. GNB invests significant resources and efforts to
attract and retain immigrants, but what factors
influence retention?
Our 2019 study* estimates retention rates of
immigrants who arrived through the Provincial
Nominee Program (PNP). This study extends
that work to consider retention of all immigrant
streams using Federal-Provincial linked data
• Which stream of immigrants has a higher
probability of remaining?
• What characteristics do the majority
of leavers possess?
• Does the Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP)
program have higher retention rates than other
programs?
4
Are Immigrants Staying in NB?
The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a
key strategy for addressing stagnant population growth and a shrinking
labour force.
*Leonard, P., McDonald, T., & Miah, P. (2019). Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen
Database. Fredericton, NB: New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training.

5. 5
Highlight of Findings: Linked Federal-Provincial Data
Overall Retention Rates for Primary Applicants (All Immigration Streams in NB), 2005 - 2018
79.5%
after 1 year
65%
after 3 years
1-year retention rate for immigrants in Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP) 87.5%
Overall
1-year
retention
rates for
different
immigration
streams
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) 76.7%
Skilled Worker
82.9%
55.6%
after 5 years
Syrian Refugee
73.2%
86.3%
80.0%
While AIP retention rates are highest, all categories show higher retention rates in 2018
Overall 2018

6. There are few
differences by
official language
spoken, with
French-only
speakers
marginally higher
Immigrants
landing in Saint
John (CMA) are
less likely to
remain in NB
(74.7%) and in
the CMA (69.8%)
Immigrants
landing in
Moncton (CMA)
are more likely to
remain in NB
(83%) and in the
CMA (80.2%)
6
More Highlights
Overall
1-year
retention
rates Immigrants from the Philippines
Sponsored Family
90.2%
88.4%

7. 7
Other Key Takeaways
• Half of those who land in NB register for Medicare within 1 day after landing.
• Approximately 84% of all immigrants and 85% of primary applicants in the IRCC whose
intended destination is NB could be matched to the Citizen Database.
• The Highest matching rates are among immigrants in AIP (90.1%) and Syrian refugees
(94.6%).
• The 1-year retention rate for the 2018 cohort has increased markedly compared to earlier years
– a pattern reflected in other immigrant subgroups classified by immigration stream, country,
education level, and occupation.

8. Methodology

9. This Study Uses Data From
• Citizen Database (Medicare Data) (2005 – 2019)
• Provides Medicare eligibility and status
• Indicates whether individuals still reside in NB and how long they stayed
• Permanent Resident Landing File (IRCC) (2005 – 2018)
• Provides immigration landing records of all immigrants in NB (Primary
Applicants & Dependents)
• Holds information such as landing dates, country of citizenship, education
level, etc.
9

10. Methodology – Using Matched Data
10
IRCC Permanent
Resident Landing
File
Immigrants
intended to land
in NB
Medicare Data
Medicare
Registry
Matched Data
Immigrants who intended to land in NB found in the
provincial Medicare Registry
Matching
&
De-Identifying
the Data

11. Matched Data: How Does It Work?
All matched data is
stripped of
personal identifiers
before being
transferred to NB-
IRDT. 11
John Smith
Male
Nov. 18, 1950
A person’s data can be
“matched” between data sets
based on their
• Name
• Gender
• Birthdate
John Smith
Male
Nov. 18, 1950
IRCC Data Citizen Database
Matched
Matched
Matched
J Smith
Male
Nov. 18, 1950
2a2309h31u
Male
Nov. 1930
=

12. • Matched Immigrants – Individuals in IRCC landings records who are matched to Citizen
Database
• Unmatched Immigrants – Individuals in IRCC landings records who are not matched to
Citizen Database
• PNP Immigrants – Immigrants arriving through the NB Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
• AIP Immigrants – Immigrants arriving through the Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP)
• Syrian Refugee Flag – Indicator to identify immigrants in NB who are Syrian refugees
• Intended Destination Municipality – Immigrants’ intended landing municipality
(CSD/CMA) as indicated in the landing records (Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John, others)
• Occupation – Immigrants’ occupation under the National Occupational Classification
(NOC) Level 1 2011 indicated in the landing records. To meet disclosure requirements,
occupations under “Art, culture, recreation and sport” and “Natural resources, agriculture
and related production” and “Not stated” are included in “Other” categories.
12
Definitions

13. Matched Data & Measures
• The overall analysis in this report is limited to immigrants whose intended
destination at landing is NB. All application categories (immigration
streams) are available, but only individuals who indicated NB as their
destination have been linked to the Medicare data contained in the Citizen
Database.
• Only immigrants who are matched to the Citizen Database can be included
in estimating the duration of retention in NB.
• Retention is measured from the date of landing as indicated in the IRCC
landing records.
• “Terminated” status in the Citizen Database would indicate an individual
has left the province. 13
Who are retained immigrants?

14. What About UNMATCHED Data?
For this study, the unmatched immigrants are assumed not to have
landed in NB
14
They don’t have NB
Medicare because they are
not residents of New
Brunswick
There may be technical
errors that prevent
matching between the
data sets
John Smith
Male
Nov. 18,
1950
Unmatched
Citizen Database
IRCC
John Smith
Male
Nov. 18,
1950
Jim Smith
Male
Nov 1950
Unmatched
Individuals can be “unmatched”
for various reasons:

15. Unmatched Individuals
• For individuals with no Medicare record, this could mean they never moved
to NB or they are present in NB but unmatched
• Match rates are 80-90% of all landed immigrants intending to move to NB
• Retention efforts cannot work if immigrants do not move to NB in the first
place (this is an ‘attraction’ issue)
• Previous work by NB-IRDT has estimated that most unmatched PNPs
never moved to NB
15
Why is this important?

16. Detailed Results
2. Retention Rates
1. Medicare Registrations and Match Rates

17. Average Time for Active Medicare Status in Citizen Database
After & Before Landing (Matched Primary Applicants)
17
Mean
(in days)
Median
(in days)
Number of Days for activation after landing
(All Matched Primary Applicants)
110.0 2.0
Number of Days for activation after landing
(Matched Provincial Nominees)
109.1 1.0
Average Time for Active Status in Citizen Database after Landing
Mean
(in days)
Median
(in days)
Number of Active Days before landing
(All Matched Primary Applicants)
916.7 758.0
Number of Active Days before landing
(Matched Provincial Nominees)
1018.7 918.5
Average Time for Active Status in Citizen Database (active Medicare) before Landing
• 50% of those who arrive in NB register in Medicare within 1 day after landing.
• 50% of those registered in Medicare become permanent residents (immigrants) in NB within two years.

18. Annual Landings and Matching Rate of Primary Applicants
18
• The number of primary applicants in NB has been increasing, with a spike in 2016 coinciding with the arrival
of Syrian Refugees.
Note: All counts in this report have been rounded to the nearest 5 to protect confidentiality.
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
92.00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Landings and Match Rates by year of landing
Total Primary Applicants Matched Primary Applicants Matching Rate

19. Retention Rates of Primary Applicants
19
Year 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
2005 77.7% 63.8% 59.6%
2006 81.5% 65.2% 55.6%
2007 81.2% 68.1% 58.0%
2008 84.9% 67.8% 56.8%
2009 81.2% 67.4% 54.2%
2010 78.0% 66.0% 54.7%
2011 80.4% 64.1% 53.6%
2012 78.5% 63.2% 54.6%
2013 77.8% 65.4% 57.4%
2014 76.4% 58.6% 53.9%
2015 74.1% 61.7%
2016 77.7% 68.2%
2017 74.9%
2018 86.2%
Overall 79.5% 65.0% 55.6%
• The overall 1-year
retention rate of all
primary applicants
(matched) is 79.5%, and
over the years immigrant
retention hovers around
this rate.
• The 1-year retention rate
for the 2018 cohort has
increased significantly
compared to earlier years.
• After 3 years, about two-
third of landed immigrants
remain in NB.
• More than half of primary
applicants are retained in
the province after 5 years.

20. Pooled Landings and Matching Ratio of Primary Applicants by
Immigration Stream (2005 – 2018)
20
Immigration
Stream
Total Matched
Matching
Ratio
Provincial
Nominee
7,490 6,365 85.0%
Sponsored Family 3,660 3,135 85.7%
Skilled Worker 1,080 765 70.8%
Resettled Refugee 950 795 83.7%
Other 915 805 88.0%
Syrian Refugee 370 350 94.6%
AIP 355 320 90.1%
• Syrian refugees and
immigrants landing
through AIP exhibit the
highest matching rate.
• 85% of Provincial
Nominees (PNP) are
matched to Citizen
Database.
• Immigrants in the Skilled
Worker program have the
lowest matching rate,
indicating that 29% of
them either did not
actually settle in NB or
could not be matched due
to technical errors.
Note: All counts in this report have been rounded to the nearest 5 to protect confidentiality.

21. 1-Year Retention Rates of Primary Applicants by Immigration
Stream
21
Provincial
Nominee
Sponsored
Family
Skilled
Worker
Resettled
Refugee
Other
Syrian
Refugee
AIP
2005 74.1% 85.0% 76.9% 55.6% 80.0%
2006 81.7% 91.1% 68.8% 50.0% 100.0%
2007 81.4% 87.5% 66.7% 77.8% 75.0%
2008 81.0% 92.2% 80.0% 85.7% 80.0%
2009 79.7% 88.4% 70.6% 80.0% 80.0%
2010 76.6% 86.5% 70.0% 85.7% 66.7%
2011 74.3% 89.8% 75.0% 90.0% 75.0%
2012 73.5% 92.1% 75.0% 66.7% 90.0%
2013 73.9% 85.1% 83.3% 75.0% 77.8%
2014 74.8% 85.7% 83.3% 58.3% 79.0%
2015 71.6% 86.1% 66.7% 66.7% 62.5% 100.0%
2016 71.8% 88.0% 60.0% 70.0% 83.3% 83.3%
2017 73.9% 85.1% 75.0% 79.2% 56.5% 0.0% 100.0%
2018 86.3% 91.8% 80.0% 85.7% 75.0% 86.9%
Overall 76.7% 88.4% 73.2% 74.2% 73.9% 82.9% 87.5%
• Immigrants under the Sponsored Family category exhibit the highest 1-year retention rate (88.4%).
• For AIP, the 1-year retention rate is 86.9% for 2018 cohort and 87.5% overall.
• Around 83% of Syrian refugees who landed in 2016 remain after 1 year. The retention rate of 0% in
2017 is due to low counts.
• For most streams, the 2018 cohort has markedly higher 1-year retention rates than earlier years.

22. 5-Year Retention Rates of Primary Applicants by Immigration
Stream
22
• Immigrants under the Sponsored Family category exhibit the highest 5-year retention rate (71.6%).
• The lowest retention rates were for skilled workers and resettled refugees (excluding Syrian arrivals)
Provincial
Nominee
Sponsored Family Skilled Worker
Resettled
Refugee
Other
2005 55.6% 72.5% 46.2% 33.3% 60.0%
2006 53.3% 68.9% 43.8% 30.0% 50.0%
2007 50.9% 68.8% 44.4% 55.6% 65.0%
2008 44.4% 76.5% 50.0% 42.9% 60.0%
2009 47.8% 69.8% 41.2% 60.0% 40.0%
2010 50.7% 75.7% 40.0% 57.1% 33.3%
2011 47.3% 71.4% 33.3% 40.0% 50.0%
2012 48.0% 73.7% 50.0% 44.4% 60.0%
2013 50.0% 70.2% 66.7% 58.3% 55.6%
2014 49.6% 68.6% 50.0% 41.7% 63.2%
Overall 49.3% 71.6% 44.9% 46.3% 54.6%

23. 1-Year Retention Rates of Primary Applicants by Stated
Occupation
23
Occupation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall
Management 70.3% 73.9% 77.8% 60.0% 71.4% 80.0% 66.7% 75.0% 88.9% 75.5%
Business,
Finance, &
Admin
60.0% 83.3% 75.0% 100.0% 66.7% 80.0% 75.0% 84.0% 85.7% 81.2%
Natural &
Applied
Sciences
72.7% 81.8% 84.6% 81.8% 78.6% 54.6% 68.0% 85.5% 86.7% 80.6%
Health 85.7% 83.3% 75.0% 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 66.7% 85.7% 85.4%
Education, Law,
& Social
66.7% 70.0% 75.0% 71.4% 66.7% 80.0% 60.0% 75.0% 81.8% 72.5%
Sales & Services 85.7% 90.9% 72.7% 76.9% 81.3% 75.0% 76.2% 45.0% 80.7% 75.6%
Trades,
Transport, &
Equipment
86.7% 69.2% 53.9% 69.2% 33.3% 57.1% 64.7% 62.5% 78.6% 66.0%
Manufacturing
& Utilities
80.0% 66.7% 83.3% 62.5% 62.5% 100.0% 100.0% 87.5% 94.7% 83.6%
Other 85.2% 83.1% 80.7% 80.8% 78.6% 77.7% 79.9% 90.0% 90.2% 82.6%
• Due to small counts and random rounding, retention rates for categories such as “Manufacturing
& Utilities” fluctuated over the years.
• Overall, 85.4% of immigrants under “Health” categories are retained in the province after 1 year.
This is the highest 1-year retention rate by occupation.

24. 1-Year Retention Rates of Primary Applicants by Country of
Citizenship
24
Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall
China 72.0% 66.7% 66.7% 80.0% 87.0% 83.9% 78.7% 72.0% 65.1% 72.4% 86.7% 74.8%
France 100.0% 75.0% 100.0% 83.3% 80.0% 60.0% 75.0% 80.0% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 82.8%
India 100.0% 75.0% 80.0% 75.0% 75.0% 83.3% 75.0% 57.1% 70.0% 68.2% 82.9% 76.4%
Iran 100.0% 100.0% 75.0% 33.3% 73.3% 66.7% 66.7% 66.7% 50.0% 80.0% 85.7% 69.8%
Korea 87.5% 94.7% 81.3% 80.0% 85.7% 77.8% 71.4% 66.7% 80.0% 50.0% 85.7% 83.5%
Philippines 80.0% 100.0% 83.3% 100.0% 92.3% 75.0% 91.3% 89.3% 92.6% 90.7% 92.6% 90.2%
Romania 66.7% 75.0% 75.0% 83.3% 33.3% 57.1% 50.0% 20.0% 66.7% 50.0% 66.7% 60.0%
Syria 100.0% 83.6% 77.8% 92.3% 84.9%
Ukraine 100.0% 100.0% N/A 50.0% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% 100.0% 75.0% 76.5% 78.6% 75.5%
UK 100.0% 100.0% 80.0% 100.0% 83.3% 87.5% 100.0% 75.0% 83.3% 83.3% 85.7% 89.7%
USA 94.1% 92.9% 100.0% 92.3% 90.0% 92.9% 88.9% 87.5% 84.6% 91.7% 92.9% 91.8%
Vietnam 0.0% 100.0% 66.7% 66.7% 33.3% 25.0% 60.0% 63.6% 60.0% 66.7% 75.0% 58.3%
• Due to low counts, retention rates for several countries (e.g., Iran and India) fluctuate from year to year.
• Immigrants from USA and the Philippines consistently exhibit high 1-year retention rates, with overall
rates of 91.8% and 90.2% respectively.
• China (which has a high count) had a significantly higher retention rate in 2018 compared to 2017.

25. Annual Landings (Matched) Primary Applicants by
CMA/CA*
25
*As indicated during Medicare registration
**As indicated in the IRCC database
CMA/CA Intended** Actual* Difference
Fredericton 3,355 3,325 -30
Moncton 3,285 3,510 225
Saint John 2,985 2,900 -85
Rest of NB 2,935 2,830 -105
Differences between Actual* & Intended** CMA/CA (Pooled 2005 – 2018)
Note: All counts in this report have been rounded to the nearest 5 to protect confidentiality.
• It appears that more immigrants landed in Moncton than intended to, while other CMAs/CAs
experienced fewer immigrant arrivals.

26. 1-Year Retention Rates of Primary Applicants by CMA/CA*
26
*As indicated during Medicare registration
Primary Applicant Retained in NB
Primary Applicant Retained in CMA/CA* (Local Area)
CMA/CA 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall
Fredericton 72.0% 74.4% 79.3% 76.3% 82.4% 73.7% 75.6% 75.5% 73.9% 71.4% 70.3% 77.7% 73.7% 86.3% 76.3%
Moncton 73.7% 80.8% 84.9% 81.8% 85.0% 80.6% 80.0% 82.5% 79.6% 82.5% 82.7% 84.7% 77.8% 89.8% 83.0%
Saint John 70.8% 71.8% 73.7% 73.7% 65.8% 69.4% 65.6% 70.7% 78.8% 75.0% 74.3% 76.8% 73.5% 91.8% 74.7%
Rest of NB 80.0% 80.7% 84.2% 86.8% 87.5% 89.7% 87.8% 88.2% 85.4% 82.4% 87.2% 85.7% 81.3% 89.3% 85.8%
CMA/CA 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Overa
ll
Fredericton 64.0% 74.4% 72.4% 73.7% 79.4% 68.4% 73.2% 69.4% 65.2% 66.1% 64.9% 60.0% 65.8% 83.6% 69.7%
Moncton 68.4% 76.9% 81.8% 78.8% 85.0% 77.8% 75.0% 80.0% 72.7% 80.7% 80.8% 83.3% 75.3% 86.7% 80.2%
Saint John 66.7% 69.2% 71.1% 71.1% 65.8% 63.9% 59.4% 65.9% 72.7% 59.1% 71.4% 71.0% 69.4% 88.5% 69.8%
Rest of NB 72.0% 67.7% 79.0% 79.0% 81.3% 74.4% 75.6% 82.4% 78.1% 73.5% 74.4% 71.4% 70.8% 85.3% 76.6%
• All CMAs/CAs saw increased retention rates for the 2018 cohort.
• Immigrants landing in Saint John are less likely to remain in NB (74.7%) and in Saint John (69.8%) after 1 year.
• About 83% of immigrants arriving in Moncton stay in the province after one year, and 80.2% remain in Moncton.

27. Pooled Landings and Matching Ratio of Primary Applicants by
Language* (2005-2018)
27
• Language as indicated on the IRCC landing record.
Note: All counts in this report have been rounded to the nearest 5 to protect confidentiality.
Language Total Matched
Matching
Rate
Both 1,565 1345 86%
English 10,680 9,100 85%
French 665 580 87%
Neither/Not
Stated
1,885 1,570 83%

28. Annual Landings (Matched) and Retention Rates of PNP
Primary Applicants by PNP Immigration Stream
28
*NB Express Entry & AIP appear in data post 2014, hence, these streams do not have 5-year rates.
Note: All counts in this report have been rounded to the nearest 5 to protect confidentiality.
PNP Immigration Stream
2018
Landings
1-Year
Retention Rate
(2018 Landings)
5-Year
Retention Rate
(2014 Landings)
Business 55 90.9% 43.3%
Skilled Worker 305 82.0% 55.3%
Strategic Initiative 55 90.9% 62.5%
NB Express Entry* 395 89.9%
AIP* 315 85.7%

29. Limitations
• This report is limited to individuals who indicate NB as their intended
province of residence. Future work will study the location and retention
decisions of immigrants intending to land in other provinces once the full
IMDB landing records are matched
• The current version of the IRCC database does not allow us to group
family/household members together so the role of household dynamics could not
be studied. Future iterations of IRCC landing records will include household
indicators
29

30. Results from other data sources
Linked taxfiler-immigration data (IMDB)
• A companion report presents retention and earnings
results for immigrants intending to land in NB, using
landing records linked to income tax records
• Data from 2006-15 landing years accessed through
the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre at UNB
Fredericton
Retention Rates of Primary Applicants intending to move to NB
30
Tax Filer Data Medicare Data
Landing
Year
1 YSL 5 YSL
Landing
Year
1 YSL 5 YSL
2006 75.0% 58.1% 2006 81.5% 59.6%
2007 74.6% 57.6% 2007 81.2% 55.6%
2008 76.4% 56.7% 2008 84.9% 58.0%
2009 74.6% 55.3% 2009 81.2% 56.8%
2010 70.2% 52.7% 2010 78.0% 54.2%
2011 72.8% 54.0% 2011 80.4% 54.7%
2012 73.0% 2012 78.5%
2013 75.5% 2013 77.8%
2014 69.9% 2014 76.4%
2015 67.0% 2015 74.1%
• Tax data exclude
unmatched
records. Retention
is based on tax
filers only
• Medicare data
conditional on
registering for
Medicare in NB

31. Looking Forward: The Next Phase of our Research
FUTURE RESEARCH INCLUDES
 Updated data with new immigrant arrival cohorts
 Internal and return migration of immigrants
 Statistical analysis of migration/retention decisions
For release:
Immigrant Income and Labour Market Outcomes: 2006 - 2015 cohorts
Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick: An Analysis Using Linked Federal-
Provincial Administrative Data
Supplement: Immigrant Retention in NB – A Comparison of Results Based on
Medicare and Tax Data (2006-2015 cohorts)
31

32. Email
tedmcdon@unb.ca
NB-IRDT@unb.ca
Website
https://www.unb.ca/nbirdt
Blog
https://unb.ca/nbirdt/datanb/index.php
Sign up for our DataNB newsletter
32
CONTACT INFORMATION