Sustainability - the driver of innovation
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Sustainability - the driver of innovation
- 1. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture Sustainability: the driver for innovation? Designing Resilient Cities Rob MacKenzie (on behalf of the Urban Futures team) Monday 1 July, 2013
- 2. Sustainability, no matter what definition is used, is all about the future - putting in place now interventions (solutions) to problems that will yield a positive rather than negative future legacy. Sustainability and Interventions I
- 3. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture Question “how sustainable are the interventions we propose?” Designing Resilient Cities
- 4. Tower Blocks Built as a response to post-War housing crisis Initially seen as sign of modernity People enjoyed the light, the new bathrooms and kitchens
- 5. Poor maintenance Poor management Failed lifts and other amenities Key Learning Maintenance and management critical to success; intervention is a system Tower Blocks for housing
- 6. What sometimes happens… Case study (+ Assessment modelling) Problem identified Solution designed Nothing Happens Solution Successful Something bad happens INNOVATION
- 7. Sustainability and Interventions II For an intervention to succeed, certain necessary conditions must remain in place but these conditions are usually only implicitly considered (if at all) in planning and development. The continuation of necessary conditions determines the resilience of a solution.
- 8. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture Question “how sustainable are the interventions we propose?” Designing Resilient Cities Answer “it depends on what the futures hold”
- 9. The Future is plural Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change Urban Futures are • derived from established philosophical positions: Thomas Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, EF Schumacher. • derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales Derived urban futures can pressure-test sustainability solutions Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.
- 10. How might the future change? The population decreases? The site is sold and the new owner doesn‟t prioritise reduced car ownership? Someone removes the roadside trees? Live/work becomes the norm? Shopping patterns change? Government policy changes? The city becomes more densely populated? There is no budget in five years to pay for maintenance? Residents prefer a tumble dryer to hanging their washing outside?
- 11. Future Scenarios How could the future develop?
- 13. New Sustainability Paradigm An ethos of „one planet living‟ facilitates a shared vision for more sustainable living and a better quality of life
- 14. Policy Reform Comprehensive and coordinated government action towards greater sustainability is initiated
- 15. Market Forces Well functioning markets are seen as the key to resolving social, economic and environmental problems
- 16. Fortress World The world is divided, with the elite in interconnected, protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside
- 17. The Urban Futures Method Using future scenarios to determine performance of interventions made in the name of sustainability
- 18. Sustainability and Interventions III An Intervention must have at least one intended benefit, but it is often lost in the design or decision chains of planning and development. Any solution/intervention can have unintended drawbacks. Drawbacks are often context-specific, but so too are benefits. MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010.
- 19. Solution Greywater Recycling Benefit Reduced Demand for Potable Water Step 1 Sustainability Solution & First Benefit
- 20. Step 2 Necessary Conditions for Success • Non-potable water demand • Enough greywater must be collected • Enough greywater must be stored • Must be economically viable • Must be acceptable to the community • Others?
- 21. Interactive Tool
- 22. New Sust‟bility Paradigm Efficient technologies and use Policy Reform Efficient technologies but not use Market Forces No change from current behavior Fortress World Rich and Poor Non-potable water demand Low demand Medium demand High demand Rich – High demand Poor – Low demand Enough water must be collected Risk not enough collected Enough collected Enough collected Rich – Risk not enough collected Poor – not enough collected Enough water must be stored Risk not enough stored Enough stored Enough stored Rich – Risk not enough stored Poor – Not enough stored Economically viable ROI takes too long ROI borderline acceptable Fast ROI Fast ROI for rich and poor Acceptable to the community Highly acceptable Questionable acceptability Low acceptability High acceptability Scenarios NecessaryConditions
- 23. STEP 1 Solution & Benefit STEP 2 Necessary Conditions STEP 3 Future Performance STEP 4 Resilience to future change STEP 5b Adapt STEP 5a Implement STEP 5c Seek Alternative INNOVATION
- 24. STEP 1 Solution & Benefit STEP 2 Necessary Conditions STEP 3 Future Performance STEP 4 Resilience to future change STEP 5b Adapt STEP 5a Implement STEP 5c Seek Alternative The analysis has flagged up reasons why the solution may fail. This is the starting point for adapting the solution or.. INNOVATION
- 25. STEP 1 Solution & Benefit STEP 2 Necessary Conditions STEP 3 Future Performance STEP 4 Resilience to future change STEP 5b Adapt STEP 5a Implement STEP 5c Seek Alternative This analysis - reasons why the solution may fail. Starting point for adapting the solution or.. Considering more resilient alternatives INNOVATION INNOVATION
- 26. Lombardi DR, Leach JM, Rogers CDF et al. (2012) Designing Resilient Cities: a Guide to Good Practice. IHS BRE Press, Bracknell, UK
- 27. Sustainable innovation puts in place necessary conditions and avoids hostages to fortune
Editor's Notes
- Quick example of a solution designed to meet a problem, that was welcomed at first but hit a range of problems until finally discredited as beset by and giving rise to a range of other problems
- Understanding the possible future changes that will impact on a solution helps to manage risk and support more informed decisionmaking.
- Slide asking What if...Showing some questions reflecting possible future changesThis is not an exhaustive list, just a flavor... the future develops differently?
- Slide Future Scenarios / How will the future develop?Leads into the scenarios section
- The scenarios used in the tool are drawn from those used by the UK Government for policy and planning purposes. They are robust and an extensive review of the literature resulted in convergence on 4 distinct plausible scenarios. The bulk of the research project work was in defining the characteristics for these scenarios against a number of themes and sub sets of indicators which will see more about later in the talk.As we go through the scenarios you will probably have your own experience of examples of each of them – but don’t get locked into 2D images – each scenario – as said already has a deep and wide set of characteristics used by the tool - this set is an evidence base for you to use which is tailored for the UK context and is coherent and internally consistent. We can’t predict one future, one way the world will developSo, we have developed 4 future scenarios of the futureThey are plausible but very different so they can be used to effectively pressure test solutionsThey are UK based, but could easily be adapted for OECDThey are grounded in the academic literature and based upon work by the Global Scenarios GroupIf a solution works in all 4 scenarios then it will likely work in the future – no matter how it develops
- The Urban Futures Method and Tool / Using Future Scenarios to Determine Performance – I am going to give a brief overview of the 5 steps in the tool. We will then give a couple of case study examples.Leads into the section describing the Method – this is how we use the scenariosExample to be used throughout this section = rainwater harvesting for reducing the demand for potable water
- Step 1: Choose a sustainability solution and one of its intended benefits.Scale can range for building to masterplanExamples = installing a greywater recycling scheme, developing a mixed use site,putting in a low flush toilet, creating a city cycle network, planting urban trees,installing SUDS, putting up a green wall, installing multi utility tunnels, developing acity park, instigating a density gradient policy and using local suppliers.Solutions frequently have many benefits, but each must be considered in turn. Eg.Trees for biodiversity and trees for visual amenity.
- Step 2: Indentify the conditions necessary for the solution to deliver its intended benefit.o Necessary conditions = what needs to be in place (now and thus in the future) forthe solution to deliver as planned?o Want enough to be useful and not superficial, but not too many to make the analysisoverbearing.o Also want to identify the most important / influential necessary conditions. Allnecessary conditions may not be created equal.o At this point we can tap the audience for additional necessary conditions: therainwater harvesting example has 5 generic and important necessary conditions.You may wish to identify others and certainly ones that take into account the localcontext of your specific case. For example – what water collection parametersexist for the development in question? How sustainability minded are the targetresidents? The council? The developer?
- Showing the rest of the necessary conditions completed
- The method structure in overview
- The method structure in overview
- The method structure in overview