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International Gas Union (IGU)
News, views and knowledge on gas – worldwide




WORLD LNG REPORT
                                      2010




                                               March 2010 | International Gas Union Publication 1
                                               March 2010
                                                ar h
                                                 rch        Inter a
                                                            International s Unio Pub
                                                              tern                  Publication
IGU World LNG Report -2010 1




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2 IGU World LNG Report -2010




Message From The President Of The International Gas Union


T     he past few years have indeed been transformational for the
      LNG industry, and 2010 was an equally eventful year. With LNG
volume having doubled between 2006 and 2010, LNG has become
an increasingly important medium for transporting natural gas across
borders. Countries which used to be small LNG importers have now
emerged as major buyers, while several others have now joined the
list of LNG importers. Latin America, the Middle East and Southeast
Asia will all become importers by the end of 2011.

To accommodate this increasingly complex web of buyers and sellers,
the structure of the LNG trade is evolving. While long-term contracts
will continue to underpin new investments, they are being increasingly
supplemented by a growing short-term and spot trade, made possible
in part by destination flexibility in LNG contracts. More than a fifth
of the world’s LNG trade in 2010 was in the short-term market, and the volume is expected to grow
further in the next few years. Evidently, more companies are now constructing regasification terminals
without first securing long-term supply contracts - such is the new landscape of the LNG market.

The backdrop for these changes is robust demand, where in developed and emerging markets,
natural gas has now become the fuel of choice to supply electricity, provide heating and cooling, and
support economic growth. Defying earlier forecasts of a possible glut in supply due to the economic
crisis, a strong demand was experienced in both OECD and non-OECD markets. OECD countries
consumed 90 bcm more LNG in 2010 than in 2009, with several countries exceeding the consumption
levels of 2008. In the BRIC countries demand grew by 100 bcm, well above 2008 levels. In a carbon-
constrained world, natural gas is a fuel whose awareness and attractions have continued to grow, and
the fundamentals for this industry are as strong as ever.

The boom in demand has been matched by an equally sharp increase in supply. Although growth
in supply was contributed by several countries, Qatar’s completion of its 77 MMtpa capacity in early
2011 stands out. Australia is also fast joining the LNG big league with the number of new FIDs recently
announced. An equally important development is the dramatic growth in unconventional gas in the
United States, which is set to alter the global energy scene. In 2010, shale gas had accounted for 20%
of the nation’s domestic gas output and that share is expected to grow further. Large regasification
terminals, built over the last few years, now stand almost idle as Henry Hub has remained disconnected
from the rest of the world.

Against this background, the world has been paying close attention to the human tragedy which had
unfolded in Japan as a result of that country’s worst ever earthquake and tsunami. The multiple-
layered shock which had rocked Japan’s nuclear power will also serve to support natural gas demand
even further. Meanwhile, recent changes in the Governments of some of the countries in the Middle
East are expected to reshape the region’s political and economic environment. So far, although the
IGU World LNG Report -2010 3




supply shock has not been very significant, the alacrity at which events have unfolded is a prudent
reminder of how volatile the current state of the world’s oil and natural gas industry is.

At a time when the LNG business is changing very rapidly, the International Gas Union under the
Malaysian Presidency is very pleased to publish our first annual World LNG Report. This report aims
to serve as a reference for veterans and newcomers in the LNG industry, and we trust that this
document will also inspire discussion on how our industry will continue to change and evolve in the
years to come. Solid facts and information are the basis for any sound commercial decision, and we
hope that this report will provide plenty of both.

Finally, I would like to thank PFC Energy and the Task Force for Programmed Group Committee
for LNG (PGC D) for preparing and making this IGU document a reality. Our special thanks also to
PETRONAS for helping to sponsor the publication of this inaugural report.

Thank you.
4 IGU World LNG Report -2010




2. State of the LNG Industry at the End of 2010

  During 2010 . . .

    ß   LNG volumes grew by a record 41 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa), or 22%, reaching nearly
        224 MMtpa. This growth was driven by newly-commissioned liquefaction trains as well as the
        ramp-up in output from trains commissioned in 2009. When compared to the 143 MMtpa of LNG
        traded in 2005, the market has grown by more than 50% over the past five years.

    ß   The LNG market became even more flexible with spot volumes growing to 47 MMtpa, over one-
        fifth of the LNG trade. By comparison, the spot market made up only 10% of trade in 2005, with
        a majority of spot and short-term transactions coming from the Atlantic Basin.

    ß   Four liquefaction trains located in Peru (1 train), Qatar (2 trains) and Yemen (1 train) were
        commissioned, bringing the total number of operational liquefaction trains to 94. Specifically, the
        start-up of the Peru LNG facility made Peru the second LNG exporter in South America, and
        bringing the total number of countries exporting LNG to 18.

    ß   Newly-commissioned liquefaction trains as well as the completion of debottlenecking at Malaysia
        LNG Dua’s plant increased global liquefaction capacity by 24 MMtpa, or almost 10%, to 271
        MMtpa at year-end. Since 2005, capacity has risen by 100 MMtpa from 171 MMtpa.

    ß   One project – Queensland Curtis – made a final investment decision (FID) in 2010, while two
        others – Gladstone LNG and Donggi Senoro LNG – achieved FID in January 2011.

    ß   Five new LNG receiving terminals began operations, bringing the total to 83. Commissioning of
        the Mina Jabel Ali floating regasification terminal in Dubai brought the total number of LNG
        importing countries to 23.

    ß   The combination of newly-online receiving terminals and expansion projects at existing facilities
        increased global regasification capacity by 41 MMtpa to 572 MMtpa, a 71% increase over 2005.

    ß   The LNG carrier fleet grew to 360 ships, up from 195 ships at end-2005. The combined capacity
        of the 2010 fleet totaled 53 million cubic metres.

    ß   The US gas market continued to experience a profound transformation, driven in large part by a
        boom in shale gas production. As a result, LNG volumes previously destined for the US market
        have been re-directed to other markets.

    ß   The success of shale gas in the United States sparked enormous interest in other countries that
        are believed to have significant deposits. These countries hope to increase their shale gas
        production and lessen their need for LNG imports. In most places, however, that process will
        take many years to materialise.



Key:
MMt = million tonnes                         MMtpa = million tonnes per annum      cm = cubic metres
mcm = thousand cubic metres                  MMcm = million cubic metres           bcm = billion cubic metres
MMBtu = million British thermal units
IGU World LNG Report -2010 5




3. LNG Imports and Exports
Traded LNG volumes doubled over the last decade with several new countries joining the LNG
market.
At the start of 2010, the LNG market was faced with the prospect of record supply growth, driven mostly
by Qatar, and a weak demand environment in the aftermath of the economic crisis and the shale gas
boom in the United States. Yet demand recovered impressively, and so did LNG imports: in fact, most
countries imported more LNG in 2010 than in the pre-crisis year of 2008. As a result of strong demand
and high oil prices, LNG prices remained high.

 3.1. OVERVIEW
 In 2010, the volume of LNG traded reached 223.8 MMtpa, representing a 41 MMtpa increase from
 2009. This is the largest year-on-year growth the industry has ever experienced, with 2006 realizing
 the next highest growth at 16 MMtpa. For the five years leading up to 2010 (2005-2009), the LNG
 trade grew by an average 7% per annum, compared to a 22% jump in 2010.

 The LNG trade has not only grown in volume, but in geographic reach as well. In 2005, there were 13
 countries exporting LNG: Algeria, Australia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria,
 Oman, Qatar, Trinidad & Tobago, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States (US). During the
 past five years (2006-2010), five additional countries began to export LNG: Equatorial Guinea,
 Norway, Peru, Russia and Yemen; this list excludes countries that re-export foreign-sourced LNG.

 Over the same period, eight countries – Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Kuwait, Mexico, and
 the UAE – began importing LNG, adding to the existing 15 importers which include Belgium,
 Dominican Republic, France, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Puerto Rico, South Korea, Spain,
 Taiwan, Turkey, the United Kingdom (UK) and the US.

 3.2. LNG TRADE VOLUMES
 FIGURE 1: LNG TRADE VOLUMES, 1980-2010
    250                                                                                                                            25
                 Volume of LNG Trade
                              No. of LNG Exporting Countries (right axis)
          200                                                                                                                      20
                              No. of LNG Importing Countries (right axis)
                                                                                                                                        No. of Countries




          150                                                                                                                      15
  mmtpa




          100                                                                                                                      10


           50                                                                                                                      5


           0                                                                                                                       0
                       1982




                                        1986




                                                      1990




                                                                    1994

                                                                           1996




                                                                                         2000




                                                                                                       2004




                                                                                                                     2008
                1980




                                 1984




                                               1988




                                                             1992




                                                                                  1998




                                                                                                2002




                                                                                                              2006




                                                                                                                            2010




 Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US Energy Information Agency (EIA), US Department of Energy (DOE), PFC
 Energy
6 IGU World LNG Report -2010




The volume of LNG traded worldwide as well as the number of countries involved in the import and
export of LNG, has continued to grow, especially during the last decade. During 2006 to 2010, the
trade grew by 81 MMtpa – 78% of this incremental LNG came from previously existing LNG exporting
countries, the other 22% from countries that began LNG exports during the period. On the demand
side, 72% of the 81 MMtpa of incremental LNG was consumed by previously existing LNG importing
countries; the other 28% was consumed by countries that started importing during the period.

3.3. LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
By the end of 2010, 18 countries were exporting their natural gas as LNG. In addition, four countries –
Belgium, Mexico, Spain and the US – were re-exporting LNG imported from another source.

Qatar is by far the largest LNG exporter. In 2010, the country supplied 57.5 MMtpa of LNG to the
market – more than one quarter (26%) of global supply – and its LNG exports will continue to grow as
the mega-trains realise full-year production. Pacific Basin countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia and
Australia, are the next largest exporters and together accounted for 29% of the world’s LNG supply in
2010.

TABLE 1: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010
     Exporter             MMtpa

     Qatar                  57.5                FIGURE 2: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010
     Indonesia              23.6                              Nigeria, 8%   Trinidad, 7%
     Malaysia               23.1
     Australia              19.1           Australia, 9%                              Algeria, 6%
     Nigeria                18.1
     Trinidad               15.2                                                           Russia, 5%
     Algeria                14.3
     Russia                 10.6                                                             Oman, 4%
     Oman                    8.7                  Malaysia,
                                                    10%                                           Egypt, 3%
     Egypt                   7.1
     Brunei                  6.7                                                              Brunei, 3%
     UAE                     5.8                  Indonesia,
                                                     11%                                      UAE, 3%
     Yemen                   4.3                                                                         Yemen, 2%
                                                                                                         Eq
     Equatorial Guinea       4.1
                                                                                                     Guinea, 2%
     Norway                  3.5                                  Qatar, 26%                          Norway, 2%
     Peru                    1.3                                                                    Peru, 1%
                                                                                    Libya, 0.1%     US, 0.3%
     US                      0.6
     Libya                   0.2
     Total Exports         223.8
Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy

In 2005, Indonesia was the world’s largest exporter, a position the country had held since 1984.
However, by 2006, Qatar overtook Indonesia as the largest LNG supplier in the market. In fact, since
2005, Qatar’s LNG output has increased by over 150%.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 7




FIGURE 3: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010
          60                                                                                                                                                                          200%
                              2005




                                                                                                                                                                                              % Growth in Exports
          50                  2010                                                                                                                                                    150%
                              % Growth in Exports, 2010 vs. 2005 (right axis)
          40                                                                                                                                                                          100%
mmtpa




          30                                                                                                                                                                          50%

          20                                                                                                                                                                          0%

          10                                                                                                                                                                          -50%

           0                                                                                                                                                                          -100%
                                                          Indonesia
                 Nigeria




                                                                                          Norway
                           Guinea



                                                 Brunei




                                                                                                                                 Oman
                                    Australia




                                                                                                                       Libya




                                                                                                                                        Qatar
                                                                                                               Egypt




                                                                                                                                                                    Peru

                                                                                                                                                                           Trinidad
                                                                      Malaysia




                                                                                                     Algeria




                                                                                                                                                               US
                                                                                                                                                UAE

                                                                                                                                                       Yemen
                                                                                 Russia
                            Eq




Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy

In addition to the unprecedented growth from Qatar over the last decade, the entrance and growth of
LNG exports from non-traditional LNG exporters has meant a significant diversification of the LNG
supplier base over the last decade. The graph below shows how countries’ shares of LNG exports
have transformed as new players entered.

FIGURE 4: SHARE OF GLOBAL LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 1990-2010
          100%                                                                                                                                                             Peru
                                                                                                                                                                           Yemen
                                                                                                                                                                           Russia
          80%                                                                                                                                                              Norway
                                                                                                                                                                           Eq Guinea
                                                                                                                                                                           Egypt
          60%                                                                                                                                                              Oman
% Share




                                                                                                                                                                           Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                           Trinidad
          40%                                                                                                                                                              Qatar
                                                                                                                                                                           Libya
                                                                                                                                                                           US
          20%                                                                                                                                                              UAE
                                                                                                                                                                           Australia
                                                                                                                                                                           Brunei
           0%                                                                                                                                                              Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                           Algeria
               1990          1992               1994            1996             1998              2000        2002            2004      2006         2008      2010
                                                                                                                                                                           Indonesia
Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy

At the regional level, changes in the LNG supplier base have brought about two noteworthy shifts: in
2006, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) overtook the Asia-Pacific as the largest LNG
exporting region; and in 2007, Europe became the sixth region to export LNG.
8 IGU World LNG Report -2010




FIGURE 5: LNG EXPORTS BY REGION, 1990-2010
        250


        200                                                                                          Europe
                                                                                                     Africa
        150                                                                                          S. America
mmtpa




                                                                                                     N. America
        100                                                                                          MENA
                                                                                                     Asia-Pacific
         50


         0
              1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy


3.4. LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
Japan has traditionally been the largest consumer of LNG and remains so today with an annual
consumption of 71 MMtpa of LNG in 2010, followed by South Korea at 34 MMtpa. Together, these two
countries account for just less than half (47%) of the world’s LNG consumption.

TABLE 2: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010
        Importer              MMtpa
        Japan                  70.6              FIGURE 6: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010
        S Korea                34.1                         France, 5% China, 4%
                                                  Taiwan, 5%                   India, 4%
        Spain                  20.5
        UK                     14.2                                                US, 4%
        Taiwan                 11.6                                                    Italy, 3%
                                                      UK, 6%
        France                 10.5                                                       Turkey, 3%
        China                   9.5                                                        Belgium, 2%
        India                   9.3                                                                  Mexico, 2%
                                                  Spain, 9%                                          Chile, 1%
        US                      8.5
                                                                                                     Portugal, 1%
        Italy                   6.7
                                                                                                     Kuwait, 1%
        Turkey                  5.9                 South                                            Brazil, 1%
        Belgium                 4.5               Korea, 15%                                         Canada, 1%
        Mexico                  4.4                                                                  Argentina,
                                                                                                        1%
        Chile                   2.3                                                                Greece,
                                                                    Japan, 32%
        Portugal                2.2                                                                 0.4%
        Kuwait                  2.1                                                              D. Republic
                                                                                    Puerto          0.3%
        Brazil                  2.0                                               Rico, 0.3% UAE, 0.1%
        Canada                  1.5
        Argentina               1.3
        Greece                  0.9
        Dominican Rep.          0.6
        Puerto Rico             0.6
        UAE                     0.1
        Total Imports          223.8
Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy
IGU World LNG Report -2010 9




FIGURE 7: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010
    80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 250%
                                                                                                                                     2005
           70                                                                                                                        2010                                                                                              200%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               % Growth in Imports
           60                                                                                                                        % Growth in Imports, 2010 vs.2005 (right axis)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       150%
           50
 mmtpa




           40                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100%
           30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50%
           20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0%
           10
            0                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -50%

                                                                                                                                    Kuwait
                  Argentina




                                                                    China
                                                            Chile
                                                  Canada




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US
                                         Brazil




                                                                                                          India




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    UAE
                                                                                                                                             Mexico




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Turkey
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Taiwan
                                                                                                                           Japan




                                                                                                                                                       Portugal
                              Belgium




                                                                             Dom Rep




                                                                                                                                                                                          Spain
                                                                                                                   Italy
                                                                                                 Greece




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           UK*
                                                                                       France




                                                                                                                                                                                S Korea
                                                                                                                                                                  Puerto Rico
  *Growth in UK imports in 2010 vs 2005 far exceeded 250%
Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy

As shown in the figure above, all LNG importing countries saw their LNG imports increase between
end-2005 and 2010, except for the US, which was due to the unanticipated additional domestic supply
from unconventional gas, in particular shale gas.

In developed and emerging markets, gas is increasingly a fuel of choice to supply electricity, provide
heating and cooling, and support economic growth. During the last five years (2006-2010), eight new
countries began to import LNG to meet domestic needs: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
Kuwait, Mexico and the UAE. Notably, three of these countries are located in South America and two
in the Middle East – two regions which were not importing LNG and not considered to be significant
potential LNG markets even six years ago. In the near-term, Southeast Asia is also expected to
become a LNG importer with the startup of Thailand’s first receiving terminal in 2011.

FIGURE 8: SHARE OF GLOBAL LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 1990-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 UAE
           100%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Chile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Kuwait
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Canada
           80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Argentina
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mexico
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 China
           60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   UK
 % Share




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 India
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dom Rep
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Puerto Rico
           40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Portugal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Turkey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Italy
           20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 US
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Belgium
            0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Spain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 France
                1990                    1992               1994             1996                1998              2000             2002               2004                      2006              2008              2010         S Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Japan
Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy
10 IGU World LNG Report -2010




     3.5. LNG INTERREGIONAL TRADE
     In 2010, 60% of the world’s LNG was consumed by the Asia-Pacific region. During the year, Asian
     countries consumed 135.1 MMtpa of LNG, of which a majority (60%) was sourced from within the
     region, while 40% was imported from other regions.


     TABLE 3: LNG TRADE BETWEEN REGIONS, 2010, MMTPA
           Importing Region
                                     1
                                                        Europe              Asia-Pacific                   Middle East                 N. America                  S. America                        Total
      Exporting Region
      Africa                                             12.2                         5.3                            0.3                      2.6                         1.9                         22.2
      Asia-Pacific                                         -                         81.4                            0.3                      1.6                          -                          83.0
      Europe                                              2.4                         0.3                            0.1                      0.6                         0.1                          3.5
      MENA                                               45.4                        45.4                            1.3                      4.5                         1.3                         98.0
      N. America                                          0.2                         0.9                             -                      (0.5)                        0.1                          0.6
      S. America                                          5.3                         1.7                            0.3                      6.2                         2.8                         16.5
      Total                                              65.5                        135.1                           2.2                     14.9                         6.1                       223.8
     Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, EIA, DOE, PFC Energy


     TABLE 4: LNG TRADE VOLUMES BETWEEN COUNTRIES, 2009, MMTPA
                        Argentina




                                                                                       Dom Rep




           Importer
                                                                                                                                                                                Portugal
                                     Belgium



                                                          Canada




                                                                                                            Greece




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                     Mexico
                                                                                                  France




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Turkey
                                                                                                                                                          Kuwait
                                                                                                                                        Japan

                                                                                                                                                 Korea
                                                                             China




                                                                                                                                                                                            Spain
                                               Brazil




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Total
                                                                    Chile




                                                                                                                       India

                                                                                                                               Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                US*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK
      Exporter

      Algeria             -           -         -          -         -        -         -        5.82 0.39 0.12 0.96                     -      0.06       -          -       0.09 3.99               -         3.16      -    1.27 15.9
      Australia           -           -         -          -         -      3.48        -        0.06        -        0.81      -      12.33 1.13 0.06                -          -           -      0.38          -       -    0.06 18.3
      Belgium             -           -         -          -         -      0.06        -          -         -          -       -        -        -      0.06         -          -         0.06       -           -       -     -     0.2
      Brunei              -           -         -          -         -        -         -          -         -          -       -      6.17 0.55           -          -          -           -        -           -       -     -     6.7
      Egypt            0.12 0.07                -        0.06        -      0.06        -        1.20 0.18 0.12 0.06 0.24 0.33                             -        0.31         -         3.32 0.06 0.06                 -    0.38 9.9
      Eq. Guinea          -           -         -          -       0.25 0.13            -        0.06        -        0.19      -      1.07 1.30           -          -       0.07           -      0.58          -       -     -     3.6
      Indonesia           -           -         -          -         -      0.46        -          -         -        0.06      -      12.56 3.12          -        0.06         -           -      2.80          -       -     -     19.1
      Libya               -           -         -          -         -        -         -          -         -          -       -        -        -        -          -          -         0.55       -           -       -     -     0.5
      Malaysia            -           -         -          -         -      0.81        -          -         -        0.19      -      12.84 5.87 0.07                -          -           -      2.83          -       -     -     22.6
      Nigeria             -         0.07 0.06              -         -      0.06        -        1.76        -        0.24      -      0.53 0.25           -        1.95 1.59 3.33 0.87 0.79                              -     -     11.8
      Norway              -         0.13        -          -         -        -         -        0.33        -          -       -        -        -        -        0.06         -         1.02       -           -       -    0.17 2.3
      Oman                -           -         -          -         -      0.06        -          -         -        0.18      -      2.58 4.06 0.06                 -          -         0.98 0.19 0.06                 -     -     8.2
      Qatar               -         4.52        -        0.09 0.06 0.40                 -        0.13        -        6.53 1.30 7.93 6.68                  -        0.09         -         3.39 1.22 0.32                 -    4.12 37.0
      Russia              -           -         -          -         -      0.19        -          -         -        0.51      -      2.84 1.02 0.31                 -          -           -      0.12          -       -     -     5.0
      Trinidad         0.59 0.12 0.44 0.71 0.18 0.06 0.42 0.54 0.03 0.51                                                        -      0.10 0.75 0.11 0.06 0.30 3.31 0.07 0.06                                            -    1.68 15.5
      UAE                 -           -         -          -         -        -         -          -         -        0.13      -      5.14       -        -          -       0.06           -        -           -       -     -     5.3
      US                  -           -         -          -         -        -         -          -         -          -       -      0.55       -        -          -          -           -        -           -       -     -     0.6
      Yemen               -           -         -          -         -        -         -          -         -          -       -        -      0.20       -        0.06         -         0.07       -           -       -     -     0.3
      Re-exports          -         -0.24       -          -         -        -         -          -         -          -       -        -        -        -          -          -           -        -           -       -     -     -0.3
      Total            0.7          4.7        0.5        0.9      0.5      5.8       0.4        9.9       0.6        9.6      2.3 64.9 25.3 0.7                    2.6       2.1 20.0 9.1                      4.5       7.7 10.0 187
                                                                                                                                                                                                              *Includes Puerto Rico
     Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy


1
    Export volumes for N. America and Europe include re-exported cargoes, which are subtracted from the region’s imports.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 11




  T ABLE 5: LNG TRADE VOLUMES BETWEEN COUNTRIES, 2010, MMTPA
                    Argentina




                                                                                 Dom Rep
        Importer




                                                                                                                                                                       Portugal
                                 Belgium



                                                      Canada




                                                                                                      Greece




                                                                                                                                                                                            Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                             Mexico
                                                                                            France




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Turkey
                                                                                                                                                   Kuwait
                                                                                                                                  Japan

                                                                                                                                           Korea
                                                                         China




                                                                                                                                                                                   Spain
                                            Brazil




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Total
                                                                Chile




                                                                                                                India




                                                                                                                                                                                                               UAE
                                                                                                                         Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             US*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      UK
   Exporter

   Algeria            -           -          -         -       0.18       -       -        4.77 0.71             -      1.23 0.06           -       -         -          -        3.54       -       2.83      -     0.95     -    14.3
   Australia          -           -          -         -         -      3.90      -          -         -       0.06       -      13.28 0.91 0.06              -          -          -      0.83        -       -      -       -    19.0
   Belgium            -           -        0.06        -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -      0.06 0.07 0.07               -          -        0.06       -       0.07      -      -       -    0.4
   Brunei             -           -          -         -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -      5.93 0.73          -         -          -          -        -         -       -      -       -    6.7
   Egypt              -         0.13         -         -       0.36       -       -        0.53 0.06 0.06 0.44 0.43 0.81 0.21 0.12                                       -        2.11 0.06 0.19               -     0.12 1.49 7.1
   Eq. Guinea         -           -        0.02        -       1.17 0.07          -          -       0.06 0.12 0.06 0.54 1.45 0.19                            -          -          -      0.45        -       -      -       -    4.1
   Indonesia          -           -          -         -         -      1.88      -          -         -         -        -      12.75 5.54         -       1.38         -          -      1.98        -       -      -       -    23.5
   Libya              -           -          -         -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -        -        -       -         -          -        0.25       -         -       -      -       -    0.2
   Malaysia           -           -          -         -         -      1.19      -          -         -         -        -      13.89 4.96 0.13              -          -          -      2.96        -       -      -       -    23.1
   Nigeria            -         0.06 0.68              -         -      0.20      -        2.81        -       0.25       -      0.58 0.87 0.06 1.73 2.06 5.71 0.81 1.08                                       -     0.31 0.88 18.1
   Norway             -         0.06         -       0.06        -        -       -        0.33        -         -      0.13       -      0.13      -         -          -        1.33 0.06 0.12               -     0.70 0.55 3.5
   Oman               -           -          -         -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -      2.86 4.64 0.71               -          -        0.12 0.39            -       -      -       -    8.7
   Peru               -         0.08 0.06 0.12                   -        -       -          -         -         -        -        -      0.07      -       0.18         -        0.49       -         -       -      -     0.34 1.3
   Qatar           0.18 4.51 0.38 0.18 0.12 1.26                                  -        1.77 0.03 8.05 4.56 7.91 7.50                            -       0.81 0.06 4.19 2.89 1.46 0.12 10.46 0.96 57.4
   Russia             -           -          -         -         -      0.38      -          -         -         -        -      6.23 3.39 0.07               -          -          -      0.51        -       -      -       -    10.6
   Trinidad        1.10 0.06 0.70 1.18 0.37 0.05 0.59 0.24 0.06 0.48 0.24 0.11 0.66 0.29                                                                      -       0.13 2.51 0.37 0.19                      -     1.29 4.52 15.1
   UAE                -           -        0.04        -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -      5.10 0.19 0.18               -          -          -      0.33        -       -      -       -    5.8
   US                 -           -        0.06        -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -      0.63 0.26          -         -          -        0.09       -         -       -     0.14     -    1.2
   Yemen              -           -          -         -       0.06 0.47          -        0.07        -       0.28       -      0.12 1.88 0.14 0.13                     -        0.13       -         -       -     0.20 0.82 4.3
   Re-exports         -         -0.33        -         -         -        -       -          -         -         -        -        -        -       -         -          -          -        -         -       -      -     -0.74 -1.1

   Total           1.3          4.6        2.0       1.5       2.3      9.4      0.6 10.5 0.9                  9.3      6.7 70.5 34.1 2.1                   4.3       2.2 20.5 11.6 5.9                        0.1 14.2 8.8 224
                                                                                                                                                                                                           *Includes Puerto Rico
  Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy




PETRONAS Malaysia LNG (MLNG) Complex
Bintulu, Sarawak
12 IGU World LNG Report -2010




    3.6. LNG SPOT MARKET2
    The structure of the LNG trade is evolving. Traditionally, LNG has been delivered under long-term
    arrangements between buyers and sellers and was only marginally traded on a spot basis. But since
    the 1990s, spot LNG trading has grown steadily, with more rapid growth during the last five years. Up
    till 2005, the spot trade accounted for only 10% of total LNG traded, but has since grown to more than
    a fifth (21% or 47 MMtpa) in 2010.

    FIGURE 9: VOLUME OF SPOT LNG TRADE AND SHARE OF TOTAL LNG TRADE, 1995-2010
                      50                                                                                                                                                                        25%
                                        Spot LNG
                      40                                                                                                                                                                        20%
                                        % of Total LNG Trade (right axis)




                                                                                                                                                                                                      % Share
                      30                                                                                                                                                                        15%
    mmtpa




                      20                                                                                                                                                                        10%

                      10                                                                                                                                                                        5%

                       0                                                                                                                                                                        0%
                                                                                  2000

                                                                                            2001

                                                                                                      2002

                                                                                                                2003

                                                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                                                    2005

                                                                                                                                              2006
                               1995

                                        1996

                                                    1997

                                                              1998

                                                                        1999




                                                                                                                                                        2007

                                                                                                                                                                  2008

                                                                                                                                                                            2009

                                                                                                                                                                                      2010
    Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy

    In 2005, 11 countries were active spot LNG exporters and 12 countries were spot cargo importers.
    However, by end 2010, these numbers have since increased to 16 and 22, respectively. The appetite
    to buy LNG on a spot basis has increased significantly as the list of spot buyers has nearly doubled,
    whereas the list of spot sellers has increased, albeit at a slower pace.

    FIGURE 10: NUMBER SPOT CARGOES TRADED AND EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS OF SPOT LNG, 1995-2010
                     1,000                                                                                                                                                                       25
                                                  No. of Spot Caroges Traded
                      800                         No. of Countries Exporting Spot LNG (right axis)                                                                                               20
                                                  No. of Countries Importing Spot LNG (right axis)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      No. of Countries
    No. of Cargoes




                      600                                                                                                                                                                        15

                      400                                                                                                                                                                        10

                      200                                                                                                                                                                        5

                           0                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                 1995

                                           1996




                                                                           1999

                                                                                     2000

                                                                                               2001




                                                                                                                             2004

                                                                                                                                       2005




                                                                                                                                                                     2008

                                                                                                                                                                               2009

                                                                                                                                                                                         2010
                                                       1997

                                                                 1998




                                                                                                         2002

                                                                                                                   2003




                                                                                                                                                 2006

                                                                                                                                                           2007




    Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy
2
  Spot and short-term trade (hereafter referred to as spot) is defined as any transition that is not supported by a contract with a duration of more
than four years. Spot trade figures also include cargoes that are over and above contracted volumes. For example, if a company has a 5
MMtpa long-term contract with a supplier but in one year imports 6 MMtpa from that supplier, that additional 1 MMtpa is considered spot.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 13




Looking Ahead. . .

• The LNG market experienced
  two shocks in early 2011: the
  devastating       earthquake     and
  tsunami which hit Japan in March
  2011 produced a demand shock,
  while the political unrest in several
  MENA countries has led to a
  supply shock. Together, these
  developments will accelerate the
  arrival of a tight LNG market.

• Increased      short-term    LNG
  needs in Japan has already
  provided a boost to spot prices in
  the Pacific Basin. Longer-term,
  changing public opinion toward
  nuclear safety poses significant
  upside for natural gas and LNG
  demand as governments across
  regions are rethinking nuclear
  policy. In MENA, the cessation of
  Libyan LNG exports has had only
  a modest impact on LNG supply,
  but concerns loom about further
  regional shut-ins.

• Where will Qatari LNG volumes
  flow in the future? The world’s
  largest LNG supplier, Qatar, has a
  significant volume of flexible LNG
  supply; where it will send those
  volumes, could significantly impact
  on the LNG balance in the Atlantic
  and Pacific Basins.
14 IGU World LNG Report -2010




4. LNG Liquefaction Plants
The geography of growth in liquefaction capacity will be shifting from Qatar to Australia.
Qatar drove liquefaction capacity growth in recent years, reaching its target of 77 MMtpa in February
2011. However, over the next decade, Australia’s liquefaction capacity is set to grow significantly. Of
the remaining projects under construction, the majority are in Australia, in part driven by conventional
reserves and in part by coal-bed methane (CBM) to LNG projects. Three LNG projects utilizing CBM
reserves have received environmental approval and two have already begun construction.

    4.1. OVERVIEW
    At the end of 2010, there were 94 liquefaction trains in operation, representing global liquefaction
    capacity of 270.9 MMtpa. In 2011, one additional train has been commissioned (Qatargas IV, 7.8
    MMtpa) and by the end of the year, one more (Pluto LNG, 4.8 MMtpa) is expected to complete
    construction. Since 2005, five countries have commissioned greenfield LNG plants: Equatorial
    Guinea, Norway, Peru, Russia and Yemen; whilst another seven have expanded existing liquefaction
    capacity: Australia, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman and Qatar.

    4.2. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY GLOBALLY
    At the end of 2010, global liquefaction capacity stood at 270.9 MMtpa, compared to 171.4 MMtpa at
    end-2005, with another 64.9 MMtpa under construction. Current liquefaction capacity is a reflection of
    tremendous growth over the past decade. During 2006-2010, new liquefaction capacity was added at
    an average annual rate of 10% as compared to an average 5% per annum during 1990-2000.
                                                                                      3
    FIGURE 11: GLOBAL LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BUILD-OUT, 1990 - 2015
                                                                                                                       Forecast
            350

            300

            250

            200
    mmtpa




            150

            100

             50

             0
                  1990   1992    1994     1996      1998     2000     2002     2004       2006    2008     2010      2012     2014
    Source: PFC Energy, Company Announcements

    The first liquefaction plant in Arzew, Algeria (which has since been decommissioned) had a nameplate
    capacity of 0.85 MMtpa in 1964, but train capacities have steadily increased over the years. The
    recently completed Qatari mega-trains, which utilise the APCI AP-X liquefaction process (Qatargas II
    T1-2, Qatargas III, Qatargas IV and RasGas III T1-2) have a nameplate capacity of 7.8 MMtpa each.

3
 Forecast for LNG capacity to 2015 are calculated based on company-announced start dates for sanctioned projects only. As of May 2011, all
sanctioned liquefaction project had already begin construction. Planned decommissioning of plants in Algeria and Indonesia are also included.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 15




Since 2005, 24 trains have been commissioned, bringing the total number of LNG trains in operation
at end of 2010 to 94. The 95th train, Qatargas IV, came onstream in February 2011. The average size
of new trains has also since increased; in the first years of LNG, an average train was 1.1 MMtpa,
compared to 4.8 MMtpa during the last five years.

FIGURE 12: NUMBER OF TRAINS COMMISSIONED VS. AVERAGE TRAIN CAPACITY, 1964-2010
         5                                                                                                   25
               Average Capacity of Trains Commissioned




                                                                                                                   No. of New Trains Online
               No. of New Trains Commissioned During the Period (right axis)
         4                                                                                                   20

         3                                                                                                   15
 mmtpa




         2                                                                                                   10

         1                                                                                                   5

         0                                                                                                   0
              1964-       1971-    1974-   1981-      1985-       1991-      1996-     2001-     2006-
              1970        1975     1980    1984       1990        1995       2000      2005      2010
Source: PFC Energy


4.3. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY
During 2010, Peru commissioned its first liquefaction plant, making it the 18th country to have
liquefaction capacity to export LNG. The seven largest countries based on total liquefaction capacity
accounted for 75% of the world’s liquefaction capacity in 2010; with the top three – Qatar, Indonesia
and Malaysia – accounting for nearly 50%.

TABLE 6: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY, 2010
         Country                  MMtpa
         Qatar                     69.2               FIGURE 13: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY, 2010
         Indonesia                 34.1                               Algeria, 7%    Trinidad, 6%
         Malaysia                  23.9                 Australia,
                                                          7%                                 Egypt, 5%
         Nigeria                   21.9
         Algeria                   19.9                                                         Oman, 4%
         Australia                 19.3
         Trinidad                  15.5                                                             Russia, 4%
         Egypt                     12.2                 Nigeria, 8%
                                                                                                     Brunei, 3%
         Oman                      10.8
                                                                                                         Yemen, 2%
         Russia                     9.6               Malaysia,                                                  UAE, 2%
         Brunei                     7.2                 9%
                                                                                                                 Norway, 2%
         Yemen                      6.7
                                                                                                                  Peru, 2%
         UAE                        5.8
                                                         Indonesia,
         Norway                     4.5                                                                          Equatorial
                                                            13%
                                                                                                                 Guinea, 1%
         Equatorial Guinea          4.5                                      Qatar, 26%
         Peru                       3.7                                                                       US, 0.6%
                                                                                                 Libya, 0%
         US                         1.5
         Libya                      0.7
         Total Capacity            270.9
Source: PFC Energy
16 IGU World LNG Report -2010




Since 2005, all countries saw their liquefaction capacity remain the same or grow, except for Algeria,
whose liquefaction capacity dropped 4% due to decommissioning of LNG trains. Moreover, since
2005, five countries commissioned greenfield LNG plants: Equatorial Guinea, Norway, Peru, Russia
and Yemen; while another seven expanded existing liquefaction capacity: Australia, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar and Trinidad &Tobago.

FIGURE 14: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010
        75




                                                                                                                                                                                        % Change in Liq. Capacity
                                                                                                      2005                                                                       160%
        60                                                                                            2010
                                                                                                      % Growth in Liq. Capacity (2010 vs. 2005)                                  120%
        45
                                                                                                                                                                                 80%
        30
mmtpa




                                                                                                                                                                                 40%

        15                                                                                                                                                                       0%

         0                                                                                                                                                                       -40%
                     Indonesia



                                            Nigeria




                                                                                                                                                       Equatorial
                                                                                                                                       Norway
                                                                                               Oman
                                                      Australia




                                                                                                                                                                         Libya
                                                                                                                Brunei
                                                                  Algeria
             Qatar




                                                                                       Egypt




                                                                                                                                                Peru
                                                                            Trinidad
                                 Malaysia




                                                                                                                                                                    US
                                                                                                                         Yemen

                                                                                                                                 UAE
                                                                                                       Russia




                                                                                                                                                        Guinea
Source: PFC Energy

The 1.5 MMtpa Kenai LNG – the only commercial LNG plant in the US – is slated to go offline in 2011,
with no new liquefaction capacity expected to come onstream in the US until Cheniere’s planned
liquefaction plant at Sabine Pass in the Gulf of Mexico. Indonesia’s Arun LNG as well as additional
trains in Algeria are also scheduled to be taken offline.

In recent years, Qatar contributed the largest volume of global incremental liquefaction capacity.
During the past five years (2006-2010), Qatar commissioned approximately 44 MMtpa in liquefaction
capacity. In February 2011, Qatar achieved its planned target of 77 MMtpa of nameplate capacity; but
a moratorium on new production from the North Field limits expansion potential, though the Qataris
have discussed debottlenecking the existing mega-trains.

Over the next decade, Australia will be the driving force behind growth in global liquefaction capacity.
Thirty-six MMtpa of capacity is currently under construction in Australia and more than 120 MMtpa is
being proposed or in the planning stages – a number that keeps growing as companies discover
additional natural gas reserves. There is also a significant amount of proposed capacity in Nigeria –
40 MMtpa – but developers have yet to start construction or reach a final investment decision on any
of the proposed projects.

There is 57.1 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity currently under construction, 63% (36.1 MMtpa) of which
is in Australia. In addition to the trains under construction, 95.4 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity has
been completed or is currently undergoing front-end engineering and design (FEED), and over 230
MMtpa of additional capacity has been proposed. For the 95.4 MMtpa of capacity that has been
completed or is in FEED, Australia is again dominant, accounting for 61% (58.5 MMtpa). Atlantic
Basin Russia accounts for the second largest volume (24 MMtpa) of liquefaction capacity that has
been completed or is in FEED.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 17




FIGURE 15: FUTURE LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY STATUS AS OF Q1 2011
        125
                   Pacif ic      Atlantic-Mediterranean      Middle East
        100


        75
mmtpa




        50


        25


          0
                   Under Construction           FEED Completed / In FEED              Proposed
Source: PFC Energy


4.4. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY REGION
Three quarters of global liquefaction capacity is located in the Pacific Basin and the Middle East, with
the remaining quarter in the Atlantic Basin.

TABLE 7: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY BASIN IN 2005 AND 2010, MMTPA
        Basin                        2005        2010
        Atlantic-Mediterranean        58.2        77.8
        Middle East                   38.4        92.5
        Pacific                      74.75       100.6
        Total Capacity               171.4       270.9
Source: PFC Energy

FIGURE 16: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY BASIN IN 2005, 2010 AND 2015
        150                                                                                          2015

        125
                                                                          2015              2010
        100                                                    2010
                                      2015
mmtpa




                              2010                                                  2005
        75
                  2005
        50                                           2005

        25

         0
                  Atlantic-Mediterranean                    Middle East                    Pacific
Source: PFC Energy

Growth in the last five years has centred in the Middle East, notably Qatar. Qatar ramped up to full
production the first of its 7.8 MMtpa mega train in July 2009 and, through February 2011, had brought
another five plants onstream, representing 46.8 MMtpa in new liquefaction capacity.
18 IGU World LNG Report -2010




Future growth can be expected from the Pacific Basin, driven by LNG developments in Australia: 76%
of this capacity is currently under construction (44.7 MMtpa out of 59.1 MMtpa) in the Pacific Basin,
36.1 MMtpa of which is in Australia. There is also another 64.5 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity in the
Pacific Basin which is either in the FEED phase, or has completed FEED.

4.5. LIQUEFACTION PROCESSES
There were eight types of liquefaction processes in use at liquefaction plants by the end of 2010. The
most extensively used process was APCI C3-MR, which accounted for 144 million tonnes (55%) of the
global nameplate liquefaction capacity.

FIGURE 17: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2010
                            ConocoPhillips
                 APC          Optimized
               C3MR/Split     Cascade
      APC AP-X    MR            12%
        12%      12%
                                                        Shell DMR
                                                           4%
                                                       Linde MFC
                            Other                         2%
                             9%
                                                       APC Split MR
                                                           0%
                                                       Other
     APC C3MR                                           3%
       55%



Source: PFC Energy

Air Products and the ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade® technology are the most widely used
liquefaction technologies, present in 92% of global LNG capacity. Air Products technology is the most
widely used, present in 80% of the LNG trains around the world in 2010 – roughly the same market
share it had enjoyed for more than 30 years. ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade® technology is the
second most widely used, present in about 12% of the world’s liquefaction plants.

New processes are being employed at several projects. Shell’s Dual Mixed Refrigerant (DMR)
process is being used at Sakhalin LNG in Russia, APCI’s AP-X technology at the Qatari mega-trains,
and the Linde Mixed Fluid Cascade (MFC) process is in use at Snøhvit LNG in Norway.

The Snøhvit LNG plant, which came online in 2007, uses a new process developed by Linde/Statoil.
The Mixed Fluid Cascade (MFC) process comprises three refrigeration cycles in series. Novel project
features include all electrically-driven compressors and direct use of seawater for cooling. Carbon
dioxide present in the feedgas is removed and re-injected underground.

ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum were the first to employ the APCI AP-X technology at the two-train,
15.6 MMtpa Qatargas II project. The same design was repeated for all the 7.8 MMtpa mega-trains in
Qatar: RasGas III, Trains 2 and 3 and Qatargas III and IV. A nitrogen sub-cooling loop has been
added to the C3/MR process to increase capacity for the same sized MCHE. It is also the first
application of a GE Frame 9 gas turbine as a mechanical driver for the refrigerant compressors.
IGU World LNG Report -2010 19




 The Shell Dual Mixed Refrigerant (DMR) process is being used for the Sakhalin project in Russia.
 This novel process uses two Mixed Refrigerant cycles in series and the process is air cooled for
 process and environmental reasons. It is sufficiently flexible to support the wide range of ambient
 temperature experienced in the sub-arctic environment. Train capacity is 4.8 MMtpa.

 FIGURE 18: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2000-2010
     300
                                                                                             Other
          250                                                                                APC Split MR

          200                                                                                Linde MFC

                                                                                             Shell DMR
  mmtpa




          150
                                                                                             ConocoPhillips
          100                                                                                Optimized Cascade
                                                                                             APC AP-X
           50                                                                                APC C3MR/Split
                                                                                             MR
            0                                                                                APC C3MR
                2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
 Source: PFC Energy



Looking Ahead. . .

          Will the LNG industry be able to sanction projects at a rate necessary to keep pace with
          LNG demand growth? Significant liquefaction has been proposed, but how much and how fast
          the proposed capacity comes on-stream will be critical to enable meeting projected demand
          growth.

          Will floating liquefaction technology be a game-changer for the industry? Floating
          liquefaction technology has yet to be commercially proven, but success could open up previously
          stranded or non-commercial gas reserves.
20 IGU World LNG Report -2010




5. Special Report: Impact of Unconventional Gas on the LNG Industry
The rapid transformation of the US natural gas market following the shale gas boom has already
had an impact on the LNG industry, but this impact could grow if the US exports shale gas as
LNG or if unconventional gas can have the same transformative impact on other markets.
The shale gas boom in the US and its dampening impact on the country’s LNG demand has amplified
the supply and demand balance in the market in 2009 and 2010. Yet the absence of the US as a
significant LNG importer merely pushes back the time at which the LNG market tightens by a couple of
years. The bigger question is whether other countries will replicate the success of the US – this could
happen in some places, but in general the process will be a long one.

 5.1. INTRODUCTION
 The following special report discusses the factors that led to the unconventional gas boom in the US,
 the potential for that to be replicated elsewhere and the resulting impact on LNG demand. It also
 addresses the potential for the US to export shale gas as LNG, another possible impact from the shale
 gas boom on the LNG market.

  5.2. US SHALE GAS BOOM AND IMPACT ON US LNG DEMAND
 Since 1950, the US gas system has gone through five phases. First, production grew by an average
 6% per annum from 1950 until it peaked in 1973. Second, production started to fall in 1974 until it
 bottomed out in 1986 – in that period, production declined by over 25%. Third, from 1987 to 2000, US
 production increased by a sustained 1.3% annually, leading to a significant recovery in output, but still
 below the 1973 peak. Fourth, production hit another peak in 2000 and started to decline by 1.2% per
 annum until 2005. From 2006 onward, production experienced its most dramatic growth in the last 40
 years, growing by an average 3.6% per annum. In 2010, output was almost equal to the 1973 peak.

 The growth in gas production has been driven primarily by the ability to produce unconventional
 resources at ever cheaper rates. Unconventional gas includes shale, coal bed methane and tight gas
 which are all characterized by low natural permeability in the reservoir (commercial gas volumes do
 not “flow” naturally). Using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, companies have been able to
 create sufficient permeability to extract ever increasing commercial volumes from these reservoirs.

  FIGURE 19: US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION                         FIGURE 20: SHARE OF SHALE GAS IN US GAS PRODUCTION
       700                                                                         25%

       600
                                                                                   20%
                                                                % Share of Total




       500

       400                                                                         15%
 bcm




       300
                                                                                   10%
       200
                                                                                   5%
       100

        0                                                                          0%
             1950    1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010             1990            1995   2000   2005   2010
Source: EIA, PFC Energy                                         Source: EIA
IGU World LNG Report -2010 21




 This growth in unconventional gas production has emerged as a shock to the LNG system for two
 reasons: first, it has made clear that the US will not need to import significant volumes of LNG over
 the next decade (at least); and second, there is growing uncertainty over whether other countries will
 be able to replicate the experience of the US and hence, reduce their own needs for imports.
 Together, these two prospects could reshape the LNG industry.

 5.3. IMPLICATIONS OF US SHALE GAS BOOM ON LNG TRADE FLOWS AND PRICES
 Perhaps the most important global implication of this “shale gas revolution” is that the US no longer
 needs as much LNG as previously forecasted. One useful way to think about the importance of US
 LNG is to re-examine the forecasts done by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the US
 Department of Energy. In its 2005 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2005), the EIA was forecasting that
 the US would need to import as much as 70 bcm in 2010 to meet demand and offset the drop in
 indigenous production. Given actual LNG production in 2010, this would have amounted to a global
 market share of 23%, making the US the world’s second largest LNG market after Japan. To meet
 this projected rise in imports, there was a boom in US regasification capacity which increased
 sevenfold between 2002 and 2010.

 As the production growth story proved to be sustainable, those expectations shifted: by 2008, the EIA
 thought that by 2010, the US would only need 34 bcm. However, even those numbers turned out to
 be optimistic. In the 2011 AEO, the EIA has significantly downgraded its LNG import expectations and
 it effectively foresees no growth through 2025.

 FIGURE 21: EIA FORECASTS FOR US LNG IMPORTS         FIGURE 22: US REGASIFCATION CAPACITY VS. IMPORTS
  200                                                        150
                   AEO 2005                                                US Regas Capacity
                   AEO 2008                                  125
  150                                                                      US LNG Imports
                   AEO 2011
                                                             100

  100                                                         75
bcm




                                                       bcm




                                                              50
      50
                                                              25

      0                                                       0
           2000   2005   2010   2015   2020   2025                  2000   2002    2004     2006   2008   2010
Source: EIA                                           Source: PFC Energy


 This means that a significant source of demand for global LNG supplies has disappeared. Given that
 LNG investments have a long-lead time, there is a significant amount of LNG capacity that is coming
 online between 2009 and 2012 which was constructed based on the market expectations of 2005,
 whereby the US would become a major import market. This LNG had to find a new place to go – and
 in 2010, it found a home mostly in Europe as well as in emerging markets (Middle East and Latin
 America). Combined with a recession-induced drop in gas demand in 2009, the lack of more imports
 needed from the US produced a longer-than-expected glut in gas supplies. This glut has had two
 implications for gas pricing:
22 IGU World LNG Report -2010




 First, the US market has become effectively disconnected from the broader global market. While
 Henry Hub has never correlated perfectly with prices in either Europe or Asia, the disparity between
 Henry Hub and prices elsewhere has been magnified in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Of particular interest is
 in 2010, where US gas prices were more than 50% lower than prices in Japan, while they are also
 being traded at a significant discount vis-à-vis UK gas prices (-33%). As a result of this disparity, a
 number of companies that own regasification terminals which are currently idle, are now proposing
 instead to start exporting LNG from North America.

 FIGURE 23: GAS PRICES, 2010                           FIGURE 24: EUROPEAN GAS PRICES, OIL-LINKED VS. SPOT

           12                                                      16                                  NBP
                $10.41
                                                                   14                                  Oil Linked
           10
                                                                   12
           8
                             $6.55                                 10
                                                         $/MMBtu
 $/MMBtu




           6                                                        8
                                          $4.37
                                                                    6
           4
                                                                    4
           2
                                                                    2
           0                                                        0
                Japan         UK           USA                      2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
Source: PFC Energy                                      Source: PFC Energy


 Second, there has been growing pressure on the linkage between oil-linked and spot prices in Europe.
 In 2009, the average oil-linked contract price exceeded the spot price at NBP by ~$3.5/MMBtu. In
 2010, the gap narrowed only slightly, reaching $2.16/MMBtu. In 2010, the gap narrowed and by the
 end of 2010 it had disappeared at least in the short term – but there have been two distinct byproducts
 of this resulting disparity. First, buyers have sought to renegotiate terms with sellers. In general,
 buyers have succeeded in linking some of the volumes they purchase to spot prices rather than oil;
 they have also achieved a relaxation of take-or-pay (TOP) provisions. Second, several new entrants
 have sought to procure gas directly from the spot market (pipeline or LNG). Combined with the
 existence of TOP clauses, this competitive pressure has further squeezed incumbent importers who
 are usually saddled with higher-priced gas that they cannot market.

 Thinking about the importance of US shale gas from a more structural perspective, there are two
 questions to consider. First, is the US shale gas revolution sustainable? If so, at what price is shale
 gas viable and what risks are associated with its production? If it is indeed both abundant and cheap
 to produce, then the US could easily emerge as a major exporter of LNG within the next decade.

 Second is the question of whether the absence of US LNG import demand has produced a short or
 long-term glut in supply. This is the controversial subject in the gas world today with two camps –
 those who think the glut is cyclical, and those who think it is structural – having several data points to
 support their argument. The important question to ask is: even if one excludes the US as an
 importing country, does the global supply and demand balance tighten sooner or later?
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE
IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE

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IGU REPORT ON RECORD GROWTH IN GLOBAL LNG TRADE

  • 1. International Gas Union (IGU) News, views and knowledge on gas – worldwide WORLD LNG REPORT 2010 March 2010 | International Gas Union Publication 1 March 2010 ar h rch Inter a International s Unio Pub tern Publication
  • 2.
  • 3. IGU World LNG Report -2010 1 29 30 30 32 32 32 33 33 35 36 37 38 40 41 42
  • 4. 2 IGU World LNG Report -2010 Message From The President Of The International Gas Union T he past few years have indeed been transformational for the LNG industry, and 2010 was an equally eventful year. With LNG volume having doubled between 2006 and 2010, LNG has become an increasingly important medium for transporting natural gas across borders. Countries which used to be small LNG importers have now emerged as major buyers, while several others have now joined the list of LNG importers. Latin America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia will all become importers by the end of 2011. To accommodate this increasingly complex web of buyers and sellers, the structure of the LNG trade is evolving. While long-term contracts will continue to underpin new investments, they are being increasingly supplemented by a growing short-term and spot trade, made possible in part by destination flexibility in LNG contracts. More than a fifth of the world’s LNG trade in 2010 was in the short-term market, and the volume is expected to grow further in the next few years. Evidently, more companies are now constructing regasification terminals without first securing long-term supply contracts - such is the new landscape of the LNG market. The backdrop for these changes is robust demand, where in developed and emerging markets, natural gas has now become the fuel of choice to supply electricity, provide heating and cooling, and support economic growth. Defying earlier forecasts of a possible glut in supply due to the economic crisis, a strong demand was experienced in both OECD and non-OECD markets. OECD countries consumed 90 bcm more LNG in 2010 than in 2009, with several countries exceeding the consumption levels of 2008. In the BRIC countries demand grew by 100 bcm, well above 2008 levels. In a carbon- constrained world, natural gas is a fuel whose awareness and attractions have continued to grow, and the fundamentals for this industry are as strong as ever. The boom in demand has been matched by an equally sharp increase in supply. Although growth in supply was contributed by several countries, Qatar’s completion of its 77 MMtpa capacity in early 2011 stands out. Australia is also fast joining the LNG big league with the number of new FIDs recently announced. An equally important development is the dramatic growth in unconventional gas in the United States, which is set to alter the global energy scene. In 2010, shale gas had accounted for 20% of the nation’s domestic gas output and that share is expected to grow further. Large regasification terminals, built over the last few years, now stand almost idle as Henry Hub has remained disconnected from the rest of the world. Against this background, the world has been paying close attention to the human tragedy which had unfolded in Japan as a result of that country’s worst ever earthquake and tsunami. The multiple- layered shock which had rocked Japan’s nuclear power will also serve to support natural gas demand even further. Meanwhile, recent changes in the Governments of some of the countries in the Middle East are expected to reshape the region’s political and economic environment. So far, although the
  • 5. IGU World LNG Report -2010 3 supply shock has not been very significant, the alacrity at which events have unfolded is a prudent reminder of how volatile the current state of the world’s oil and natural gas industry is. At a time when the LNG business is changing very rapidly, the International Gas Union under the Malaysian Presidency is very pleased to publish our first annual World LNG Report. This report aims to serve as a reference for veterans and newcomers in the LNG industry, and we trust that this document will also inspire discussion on how our industry will continue to change and evolve in the years to come. Solid facts and information are the basis for any sound commercial decision, and we hope that this report will provide plenty of both. Finally, I would like to thank PFC Energy and the Task Force for Programmed Group Committee for LNG (PGC D) for preparing and making this IGU document a reality. Our special thanks also to PETRONAS for helping to sponsor the publication of this inaugural report. Thank you.
  • 6. 4 IGU World LNG Report -2010 2. State of the LNG Industry at the End of 2010 During 2010 . . . ß LNG volumes grew by a record 41 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa), or 22%, reaching nearly 224 MMtpa. This growth was driven by newly-commissioned liquefaction trains as well as the ramp-up in output from trains commissioned in 2009. When compared to the 143 MMtpa of LNG traded in 2005, the market has grown by more than 50% over the past five years. ß The LNG market became even more flexible with spot volumes growing to 47 MMtpa, over one- fifth of the LNG trade. By comparison, the spot market made up only 10% of trade in 2005, with a majority of spot and short-term transactions coming from the Atlantic Basin. ß Four liquefaction trains located in Peru (1 train), Qatar (2 trains) and Yemen (1 train) were commissioned, bringing the total number of operational liquefaction trains to 94. Specifically, the start-up of the Peru LNG facility made Peru the second LNG exporter in South America, and bringing the total number of countries exporting LNG to 18. ß Newly-commissioned liquefaction trains as well as the completion of debottlenecking at Malaysia LNG Dua’s plant increased global liquefaction capacity by 24 MMtpa, or almost 10%, to 271 MMtpa at year-end. Since 2005, capacity has risen by 100 MMtpa from 171 MMtpa. ß One project – Queensland Curtis – made a final investment decision (FID) in 2010, while two others – Gladstone LNG and Donggi Senoro LNG – achieved FID in January 2011. ß Five new LNG receiving terminals began operations, bringing the total to 83. Commissioning of the Mina Jabel Ali floating regasification terminal in Dubai brought the total number of LNG importing countries to 23. ß The combination of newly-online receiving terminals and expansion projects at existing facilities increased global regasification capacity by 41 MMtpa to 572 MMtpa, a 71% increase over 2005. ß The LNG carrier fleet grew to 360 ships, up from 195 ships at end-2005. The combined capacity of the 2010 fleet totaled 53 million cubic metres. ß The US gas market continued to experience a profound transformation, driven in large part by a boom in shale gas production. As a result, LNG volumes previously destined for the US market have been re-directed to other markets. ß The success of shale gas in the United States sparked enormous interest in other countries that are believed to have significant deposits. These countries hope to increase their shale gas production and lessen their need for LNG imports. In most places, however, that process will take many years to materialise. Key: MMt = million tonnes MMtpa = million tonnes per annum cm = cubic metres mcm = thousand cubic metres MMcm = million cubic metres bcm = billion cubic metres MMBtu = million British thermal units
  • 7. IGU World LNG Report -2010 5 3. LNG Imports and Exports Traded LNG volumes doubled over the last decade with several new countries joining the LNG market. At the start of 2010, the LNG market was faced with the prospect of record supply growth, driven mostly by Qatar, and a weak demand environment in the aftermath of the economic crisis and the shale gas boom in the United States. Yet demand recovered impressively, and so did LNG imports: in fact, most countries imported more LNG in 2010 than in the pre-crisis year of 2008. As a result of strong demand and high oil prices, LNG prices remained high. 3.1. OVERVIEW In 2010, the volume of LNG traded reached 223.8 MMtpa, representing a 41 MMtpa increase from 2009. This is the largest year-on-year growth the industry has ever experienced, with 2006 realizing the next highest growth at 16 MMtpa. For the five years leading up to 2010 (2005-2009), the LNG trade grew by an average 7% per annum, compared to a 22% jump in 2010. The LNG trade has not only grown in volume, but in geographic reach as well. In 2005, there were 13 countries exporting LNG: Algeria, Australia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Trinidad & Tobago, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States (US). During the past five years (2006-2010), five additional countries began to export LNG: Equatorial Guinea, Norway, Peru, Russia and Yemen; this list excludes countries that re-export foreign-sourced LNG. Over the same period, eight countries – Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Kuwait, Mexico, and the UAE – began importing LNG, adding to the existing 15 importers which include Belgium, Dominican Republic, France, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Puerto Rico, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Turkey, the United Kingdom (UK) and the US. 3.2. LNG TRADE VOLUMES FIGURE 1: LNG TRADE VOLUMES, 1980-2010 250 25 Volume of LNG Trade No. of LNG Exporting Countries (right axis) 200 20 No. of LNG Importing Countries (right axis) No. of Countries 150 15 mmtpa 100 10 50 5 0 0 1982 1986 1990 1994 1996 2000 2004 2008 1980 1984 1988 1992 1998 2002 2006 2010 Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US Energy Information Agency (EIA), US Department of Energy (DOE), PFC Energy
  • 8. 6 IGU World LNG Report -2010 The volume of LNG traded worldwide as well as the number of countries involved in the import and export of LNG, has continued to grow, especially during the last decade. During 2006 to 2010, the trade grew by 81 MMtpa – 78% of this incremental LNG came from previously existing LNG exporting countries, the other 22% from countries that began LNG exports during the period. On the demand side, 72% of the 81 MMtpa of incremental LNG was consumed by previously existing LNG importing countries; the other 28% was consumed by countries that started importing during the period. 3.3. LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY By the end of 2010, 18 countries were exporting their natural gas as LNG. In addition, four countries – Belgium, Mexico, Spain and the US – were re-exporting LNG imported from another source. Qatar is by far the largest LNG exporter. In 2010, the country supplied 57.5 MMtpa of LNG to the market – more than one quarter (26%) of global supply – and its LNG exports will continue to grow as the mega-trains realise full-year production. Pacific Basin countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia, are the next largest exporters and together accounted for 29% of the world’s LNG supply in 2010. TABLE 1: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010 Exporter MMtpa Qatar 57.5 FIGURE 2: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010 Indonesia 23.6 Nigeria, 8% Trinidad, 7% Malaysia 23.1 Australia 19.1 Australia, 9% Algeria, 6% Nigeria 18.1 Trinidad 15.2 Russia, 5% Algeria 14.3 Russia 10.6 Oman, 4% Oman 8.7 Malaysia, 10% Egypt, 3% Egypt 7.1 Brunei 6.7 Brunei, 3% UAE 5.8 Indonesia, 11% UAE, 3% Yemen 4.3 Yemen, 2% Eq Equatorial Guinea 4.1 Guinea, 2% Norway 3.5 Qatar, 26% Norway, 2% Peru 1.3 Peru, 1% Libya, 0.1% US, 0.3% US 0.6 Libya 0.2 Total Exports 223.8 Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy In 2005, Indonesia was the world’s largest exporter, a position the country had held since 1984. However, by 2006, Qatar overtook Indonesia as the largest LNG supplier in the market. In fact, since 2005, Qatar’s LNG output has increased by over 150%.
  • 9. IGU World LNG Report -2010 7 FIGURE 3: LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010 60 200% 2005 % Growth in Exports 50 2010 150% % Growth in Exports, 2010 vs. 2005 (right axis) 40 100% mmtpa 30 50% 20 0% 10 -50% 0 -100% Indonesia Nigeria Norway Guinea Brunei Oman Australia Libya Qatar Egypt Peru Trinidad Malaysia Algeria US UAE Yemen Russia Eq Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy In addition to the unprecedented growth from Qatar over the last decade, the entrance and growth of LNG exports from non-traditional LNG exporters has meant a significant diversification of the LNG supplier base over the last decade. The graph below shows how countries’ shares of LNG exports have transformed as new players entered. FIGURE 4: SHARE OF GLOBAL LNG EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, 1990-2010 100% Peru Yemen Russia 80% Norway Eq Guinea Egypt 60% Oman % Share Nigeria Trinidad 40% Qatar Libya US 20% UAE Australia Brunei 0% Malaysia Algeria 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Indonesia Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy At the regional level, changes in the LNG supplier base have brought about two noteworthy shifts: in 2006, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) overtook the Asia-Pacific as the largest LNG exporting region; and in 2007, Europe became the sixth region to export LNG.
  • 10. 8 IGU World LNG Report -2010 FIGURE 5: LNG EXPORTS BY REGION, 1990-2010 250 200 Europe Africa 150 S. America mmtpa N. America 100 MENA Asia-Pacific 50 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy 3.4. LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Japan has traditionally been the largest consumer of LNG and remains so today with an annual consumption of 71 MMtpa of LNG in 2010, followed by South Korea at 34 MMtpa. Together, these two countries account for just less than half (47%) of the world’s LNG consumption. TABLE 2: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010 Importer MMtpa Japan 70.6 FIGURE 6: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 2010 S Korea 34.1 France, 5% China, 4% Taiwan, 5% India, 4% Spain 20.5 UK 14.2 US, 4% Taiwan 11.6 Italy, 3% UK, 6% France 10.5 Turkey, 3% China 9.5 Belgium, 2% India 9.3 Mexico, 2% Spain, 9% Chile, 1% US 8.5 Portugal, 1% Italy 6.7 Kuwait, 1% Turkey 5.9 South Brazil, 1% Belgium 4.5 Korea, 15% Canada, 1% Mexico 4.4 Argentina, 1% Chile 2.3 Greece, Japan, 32% Portugal 2.2 0.4% Kuwait 2.1 D. Republic Puerto 0.3% Brazil 2.0 Rico, 0.3% UAE, 0.1% Canada 1.5 Argentina 1.3 Greece 0.9 Dominican Rep. 0.6 Puerto Rico 0.6 UAE 0.1 Total Imports 223.8 Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy
  • 11. IGU World LNG Report -2010 9 FIGURE 7: LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010 80 250% 2005 70 2010 200% % Growth in Imports 60 % Growth in Imports, 2010 vs.2005 (right axis) 150% 50 mmtpa 40 100% 30 50% 20 0% 10 0 -50% Kuwait Argentina China Chile Canada US Brazil India UAE Mexico Turkey Taiwan Japan Portugal Belgium Dom Rep Spain Italy Greece UK* France S Korea Puerto Rico *Growth in UK imports in 2010 vs 2005 far exceeded 250% Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy As shown in the figure above, all LNG importing countries saw their LNG imports increase between end-2005 and 2010, except for the US, which was due to the unanticipated additional domestic supply from unconventional gas, in particular shale gas. In developed and emerging markets, gas is increasingly a fuel of choice to supply electricity, provide heating and cooling, and support economic growth. During the last five years (2006-2010), eight new countries began to import LNG to meet domestic needs: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Kuwait, Mexico and the UAE. Notably, three of these countries are located in South America and two in the Middle East – two regions which were not importing LNG and not considered to be significant potential LNG markets even six years ago. In the near-term, Southeast Asia is also expected to become a LNG importer with the startup of Thailand’s first receiving terminal in 2011. FIGURE 8: SHARE OF GLOBAL LNG IMPORTS BY COUNTRY, 1990-2010 UAE 100% Chile Brazil Kuwait Canada 80% Argentina Mexico China 60% UK % Share India Dom Rep Puerto Rico 40% Portugal Greece Turkey Italy 20% Taiwan US Belgium 0% Spain France 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 S Korea Japan Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy
  • 12. 10 IGU World LNG Report -2010 3.5. LNG INTERREGIONAL TRADE In 2010, 60% of the world’s LNG was consumed by the Asia-Pacific region. During the year, Asian countries consumed 135.1 MMtpa of LNG, of which a majority (60%) was sourced from within the region, while 40% was imported from other regions. TABLE 3: LNG TRADE BETWEEN REGIONS, 2010, MMTPA Importing Region 1 Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East N. America S. America Total Exporting Region Africa 12.2 5.3 0.3 2.6 1.9 22.2 Asia-Pacific - 81.4 0.3 1.6 - 83.0 Europe 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.5 MENA 45.4 45.4 1.3 4.5 1.3 98.0 N. America 0.2 0.9 - (0.5) 0.1 0.6 S. America 5.3 1.7 0.3 6.2 2.8 16.5 Total 65.5 135.1 2.2 14.9 6.1 223.8 Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, EIA, DOE, PFC Energy TABLE 4: LNG TRADE VOLUMES BETWEEN COUNTRIES, 2009, MMTPA Argentina Dom Rep Importer Portugal Belgium Canada Greece Taiwan Mexico France Turkey Kuwait Japan Korea China Spain Brazil Total Chile India Italy US* UK Exporter Algeria - - - - - - - 5.82 0.39 0.12 0.96 - 0.06 - - 0.09 3.99 - 3.16 - 1.27 15.9 Australia - - - - - 3.48 - 0.06 - 0.81 - 12.33 1.13 0.06 - - - 0.38 - - 0.06 18.3 Belgium - - - - - 0.06 - - - - - - - 0.06 - - 0.06 - - - - 0.2 Brunei - - - - - - - - - - - 6.17 0.55 - - - - - - - - 6.7 Egypt 0.12 0.07 - 0.06 - 0.06 - 1.20 0.18 0.12 0.06 0.24 0.33 - 0.31 - 3.32 0.06 0.06 - 0.38 9.9 Eq. Guinea - - - - 0.25 0.13 - 0.06 - 0.19 - 1.07 1.30 - - 0.07 - 0.58 - - - 3.6 Indonesia - - - - - 0.46 - - - 0.06 - 12.56 3.12 - 0.06 - - 2.80 - - - 19.1 Libya - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.55 - - - - 0.5 Malaysia - - - - - 0.81 - - - 0.19 - 12.84 5.87 0.07 - - - 2.83 - - - 22.6 Nigeria - 0.07 0.06 - - 0.06 - 1.76 - 0.24 - 0.53 0.25 - 1.95 1.59 3.33 0.87 0.79 - - 11.8 Norway - 0.13 - - - - - 0.33 - - - - - - 0.06 - 1.02 - - - 0.17 2.3 Oman - - - - - 0.06 - - - 0.18 - 2.58 4.06 0.06 - - 0.98 0.19 0.06 - - 8.2 Qatar - 4.52 - 0.09 0.06 0.40 - 0.13 - 6.53 1.30 7.93 6.68 - 0.09 - 3.39 1.22 0.32 - 4.12 37.0 Russia - - - - - 0.19 - - - 0.51 - 2.84 1.02 0.31 - - - 0.12 - - - 5.0 Trinidad 0.59 0.12 0.44 0.71 0.18 0.06 0.42 0.54 0.03 0.51 - 0.10 0.75 0.11 0.06 0.30 3.31 0.07 0.06 - 1.68 15.5 UAE - - - - - - - - - 0.13 - 5.14 - - - 0.06 - - - - - 5.3 US - - - - - - - - - - - 0.55 - - - - - - - - - 0.6 Yemen - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.20 - 0.06 - 0.07 - - - - 0.3 Re-exports - -0.24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0.3 Total 0.7 4.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 5.8 0.4 9.9 0.6 9.6 2.3 64.9 25.3 0.7 2.6 2.1 20.0 9.1 4.5 7.7 10.0 187 *Includes Puerto Rico Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy 1 Export volumes for N. America and Europe include re-exported cargoes, which are subtracted from the region’s imports.
  • 13. IGU World LNG Report -2010 11 T ABLE 5: LNG TRADE VOLUMES BETWEEN COUNTRIES, 2010, MMTPA Argentina Dom Rep Importer Portugal Belgium Canada Greece Taiwan Mexico France Turkey Kuwait Japan Korea China Spain Brazil Total Chile India UAE Italy US* UK Exporter Algeria - - - - 0.18 - - 4.77 0.71 - 1.23 0.06 - - - - 3.54 - 2.83 - 0.95 - 14.3 Australia - - - - - 3.90 - - - 0.06 - 13.28 0.91 0.06 - - - 0.83 - - - - 19.0 Belgium - - 0.06 - - - - - - - - 0.06 0.07 0.07 - - 0.06 - 0.07 - - - 0.4 Brunei - - - - - - - - - - - 5.93 0.73 - - - - - - - - - 6.7 Egypt - 0.13 - - 0.36 - - 0.53 0.06 0.06 0.44 0.43 0.81 0.21 0.12 - 2.11 0.06 0.19 - 0.12 1.49 7.1 Eq. Guinea - - 0.02 - 1.17 0.07 - - 0.06 0.12 0.06 0.54 1.45 0.19 - - - 0.45 - - - - 4.1 Indonesia - - - - - 1.88 - - - - - 12.75 5.54 - 1.38 - - 1.98 - - - - 23.5 Libya - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.25 - - - - - 0.2 Malaysia - - - - - 1.19 - - - - - 13.89 4.96 0.13 - - - 2.96 - - - - 23.1 Nigeria - 0.06 0.68 - - 0.20 - 2.81 - 0.25 - 0.58 0.87 0.06 1.73 2.06 5.71 0.81 1.08 - 0.31 0.88 18.1 Norway - 0.06 - 0.06 - - - 0.33 - - 0.13 - 0.13 - - - 1.33 0.06 0.12 - 0.70 0.55 3.5 Oman - - - - - - - - - - - 2.86 4.64 0.71 - - 0.12 0.39 - - - - 8.7 Peru - 0.08 0.06 0.12 - - - - - - - - 0.07 - 0.18 - 0.49 - - - - 0.34 1.3 Qatar 0.18 4.51 0.38 0.18 0.12 1.26 - 1.77 0.03 8.05 4.56 7.91 7.50 - 0.81 0.06 4.19 2.89 1.46 0.12 10.46 0.96 57.4 Russia - - - - - 0.38 - - - - - 6.23 3.39 0.07 - - - 0.51 - - - - 10.6 Trinidad 1.10 0.06 0.70 1.18 0.37 0.05 0.59 0.24 0.06 0.48 0.24 0.11 0.66 0.29 - 0.13 2.51 0.37 0.19 - 1.29 4.52 15.1 UAE - - 0.04 - - - - - - - - 5.10 0.19 0.18 - - - 0.33 - - - - 5.8 US - - 0.06 - - - - - - - - 0.63 0.26 - - - 0.09 - - - 0.14 - 1.2 Yemen - - - - 0.06 0.47 - 0.07 - 0.28 - 0.12 1.88 0.14 0.13 - 0.13 - - - 0.20 0.82 4.3 Re-exports - -0.33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0.74 -1.1 Total 1.3 4.6 2.0 1.5 2.3 9.4 0.6 10.5 0.9 9.3 6.7 70.5 34.1 2.1 4.3 2.2 20.5 11.6 5.9 0.1 14.2 8.8 224 *Includes Puerto Rico Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy PETRONAS Malaysia LNG (MLNG) Complex Bintulu, Sarawak
  • 14. 12 IGU World LNG Report -2010 3.6. LNG SPOT MARKET2 The structure of the LNG trade is evolving. Traditionally, LNG has been delivered under long-term arrangements between buyers and sellers and was only marginally traded on a spot basis. But since the 1990s, spot LNG trading has grown steadily, with more rapid growth during the last five years. Up till 2005, the spot trade accounted for only 10% of total LNG traded, but has since grown to more than a fifth (21% or 47 MMtpa) in 2010. FIGURE 9: VOLUME OF SPOT LNG TRADE AND SHARE OF TOTAL LNG TRADE, 1995-2010 50 25% Spot LNG 40 20% % of Total LNG Trade (right axis) % Share 30 15% mmtpa 20 10% 10 5% 0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Cedigaz, Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy In 2005, 11 countries were active spot LNG exporters and 12 countries were spot cargo importers. However, by end 2010, these numbers have since increased to 16 and 22, respectively. The appetite to buy LNG on a spot basis has increased significantly as the list of spot buyers has nearly doubled, whereas the list of spot sellers has increased, albeit at a slower pace. FIGURE 10: NUMBER SPOT CARGOES TRADED AND EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS OF SPOT LNG, 1995-2010 1,000 25 No. of Spot Caroges Traded 800 No. of Countries Exporting Spot LNG (right axis) 20 No. of Countries Importing Spot LNG (right axis) No. of Countries No. of Cargoes 600 15 400 10 200 5 0 0 1995 1996 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2008 2009 2010 1997 1998 2002 2003 2006 2007 Sources: Waterborne LNG Reports, US DOE, PFC Energy 2 Spot and short-term trade (hereafter referred to as spot) is defined as any transition that is not supported by a contract with a duration of more than four years. Spot trade figures also include cargoes that are over and above contracted volumes. For example, if a company has a 5 MMtpa long-term contract with a supplier but in one year imports 6 MMtpa from that supplier, that additional 1 MMtpa is considered spot.
  • 15. IGU World LNG Report -2010 13 Looking Ahead. . . • The LNG market experienced two shocks in early 2011: the devastating earthquake and tsunami which hit Japan in March 2011 produced a demand shock, while the political unrest in several MENA countries has led to a supply shock. Together, these developments will accelerate the arrival of a tight LNG market. • Increased short-term LNG needs in Japan has already provided a boost to spot prices in the Pacific Basin. Longer-term, changing public opinion toward nuclear safety poses significant upside for natural gas and LNG demand as governments across regions are rethinking nuclear policy. In MENA, the cessation of Libyan LNG exports has had only a modest impact on LNG supply, but concerns loom about further regional shut-ins. • Where will Qatari LNG volumes flow in the future? The world’s largest LNG supplier, Qatar, has a significant volume of flexible LNG supply; where it will send those volumes, could significantly impact on the LNG balance in the Atlantic and Pacific Basins.
  • 16. 14 IGU World LNG Report -2010 4. LNG Liquefaction Plants The geography of growth in liquefaction capacity will be shifting from Qatar to Australia. Qatar drove liquefaction capacity growth in recent years, reaching its target of 77 MMtpa in February 2011. However, over the next decade, Australia’s liquefaction capacity is set to grow significantly. Of the remaining projects under construction, the majority are in Australia, in part driven by conventional reserves and in part by coal-bed methane (CBM) to LNG projects. Three LNG projects utilizing CBM reserves have received environmental approval and two have already begun construction. 4.1. OVERVIEW At the end of 2010, there were 94 liquefaction trains in operation, representing global liquefaction capacity of 270.9 MMtpa. In 2011, one additional train has been commissioned (Qatargas IV, 7.8 MMtpa) and by the end of the year, one more (Pluto LNG, 4.8 MMtpa) is expected to complete construction. Since 2005, five countries have commissioned greenfield LNG plants: Equatorial Guinea, Norway, Peru, Russia and Yemen; whilst another seven have expanded existing liquefaction capacity: Australia, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman and Qatar. 4.2. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY GLOBALLY At the end of 2010, global liquefaction capacity stood at 270.9 MMtpa, compared to 171.4 MMtpa at end-2005, with another 64.9 MMtpa under construction. Current liquefaction capacity is a reflection of tremendous growth over the past decade. During 2006-2010, new liquefaction capacity was added at an average annual rate of 10% as compared to an average 5% per annum during 1990-2000. 3 FIGURE 11: GLOBAL LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BUILD-OUT, 1990 - 2015 Forecast 350 300 250 200 mmtpa 150 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: PFC Energy, Company Announcements The first liquefaction plant in Arzew, Algeria (which has since been decommissioned) had a nameplate capacity of 0.85 MMtpa in 1964, but train capacities have steadily increased over the years. The recently completed Qatari mega-trains, which utilise the APCI AP-X liquefaction process (Qatargas II T1-2, Qatargas III, Qatargas IV and RasGas III T1-2) have a nameplate capacity of 7.8 MMtpa each. 3 Forecast for LNG capacity to 2015 are calculated based on company-announced start dates for sanctioned projects only. As of May 2011, all sanctioned liquefaction project had already begin construction. Planned decommissioning of plants in Algeria and Indonesia are also included.
  • 17. IGU World LNG Report -2010 15 Since 2005, 24 trains have been commissioned, bringing the total number of LNG trains in operation at end of 2010 to 94. The 95th train, Qatargas IV, came onstream in February 2011. The average size of new trains has also since increased; in the first years of LNG, an average train was 1.1 MMtpa, compared to 4.8 MMtpa during the last five years. FIGURE 12: NUMBER OF TRAINS COMMISSIONED VS. AVERAGE TRAIN CAPACITY, 1964-2010 5 25 Average Capacity of Trains Commissioned No. of New Trains Online No. of New Trains Commissioned During the Period (right axis) 4 20 3 15 mmtpa 2 10 1 5 0 0 1964- 1971- 1974- 1981- 1985- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006- 1970 1975 1980 1984 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: PFC Energy 4.3. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY During 2010, Peru commissioned its first liquefaction plant, making it the 18th country to have liquefaction capacity to export LNG. The seven largest countries based on total liquefaction capacity accounted for 75% of the world’s liquefaction capacity in 2010; with the top three – Qatar, Indonesia and Malaysia – accounting for nearly 50%. TABLE 6: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY, 2010 Country MMtpa Qatar 69.2 FIGURE 13: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY, 2010 Indonesia 34.1 Algeria, 7% Trinidad, 6% Malaysia 23.9 Australia, 7% Egypt, 5% Nigeria 21.9 Algeria 19.9 Oman, 4% Australia 19.3 Trinidad 15.5 Russia, 4% Egypt 12.2 Nigeria, 8% Brunei, 3% Oman 10.8 Yemen, 2% Russia 9.6 Malaysia, UAE, 2% Brunei 7.2 9% Norway, 2% Yemen 6.7 Peru, 2% UAE 5.8 Indonesia, Norway 4.5 Equatorial 13% Guinea, 1% Equatorial Guinea 4.5 Qatar, 26% Peru 3.7 US, 0.6% Libya, 0% US 1.5 Libya 0.7 Total Capacity 270.9 Source: PFC Energy
  • 18. 16 IGU World LNG Report -2010 Since 2005, all countries saw their liquefaction capacity remain the same or grow, except for Algeria, whose liquefaction capacity dropped 4% due to decommissioning of LNG trains. Moreover, since 2005, five countries commissioned greenfield LNG plants: Equatorial Guinea, Norway, Peru, Russia and Yemen; while another seven expanded existing liquefaction capacity: Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar and Trinidad &Tobago. FIGURE 14: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY IN 2005 AND 2010 75 % Change in Liq. Capacity 2005 160% 60 2010 % Growth in Liq. Capacity (2010 vs. 2005) 120% 45 80% 30 mmtpa 40% 15 0% 0 -40% Indonesia Nigeria Equatorial Norway Oman Australia Libya Brunei Algeria Qatar Egypt Peru Trinidad Malaysia US Yemen UAE Russia Guinea Source: PFC Energy The 1.5 MMtpa Kenai LNG – the only commercial LNG plant in the US – is slated to go offline in 2011, with no new liquefaction capacity expected to come onstream in the US until Cheniere’s planned liquefaction plant at Sabine Pass in the Gulf of Mexico. Indonesia’s Arun LNG as well as additional trains in Algeria are also scheduled to be taken offline. In recent years, Qatar contributed the largest volume of global incremental liquefaction capacity. During the past five years (2006-2010), Qatar commissioned approximately 44 MMtpa in liquefaction capacity. In February 2011, Qatar achieved its planned target of 77 MMtpa of nameplate capacity; but a moratorium on new production from the North Field limits expansion potential, though the Qataris have discussed debottlenecking the existing mega-trains. Over the next decade, Australia will be the driving force behind growth in global liquefaction capacity. Thirty-six MMtpa of capacity is currently under construction in Australia and more than 120 MMtpa is being proposed or in the planning stages – a number that keeps growing as companies discover additional natural gas reserves. There is also a significant amount of proposed capacity in Nigeria – 40 MMtpa – but developers have yet to start construction or reach a final investment decision on any of the proposed projects. There is 57.1 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity currently under construction, 63% (36.1 MMtpa) of which is in Australia. In addition to the trains under construction, 95.4 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity has been completed or is currently undergoing front-end engineering and design (FEED), and over 230 MMtpa of additional capacity has been proposed. For the 95.4 MMtpa of capacity that has been completed or is in FEED, Australia is again dominant, accounting for 61% (58.5 MMtpa). Atlantic Basin Russia accounts for the second largest volume (24 MMtpa) of liquefaction capacity that has been completed or is in FEED.
  • 19. IGU World LNG Report -2010 17 FIGURE 15: FUTURE LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY STATUS AS OF Q1 2011 125 Pacif ic Atlantic-Mediterranean Middle East 100 75 mmtpa 50 25 0 Under Construction FEED Completed / In FEED Proposed Source: PFC Energy 4.4. LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY REGION Three quarters of global liquefaction capacity is located in the Pacific Basin and the Middle East, with the remaining quarter in the Atlantic Basin. TABLE 7: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY BASIN IN 2005 AND 2010, MMTPA Basin 2005 2010 Atlantic-Mediterranean 58.2 77.8 Middle East 38.4 92.5 Pacific 74.75 100.6 Total Capacity 171.4 270.9 Source: PFC Energy FIGURE 16: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY BASIN IN 2005, 2010 AND 2015 150 2015 125 2015 2010 100 2010 2015 mmtpa 2010 2005 75 2005 50 2005 25 0 Atlantic-Mediterranean Middle East Pacific Source: PFC Energy Growth in the last five years has centred in the Middle East, notably Qatar. Qatar ramped up to full production the first of its 7.8 MMtpa mega train in July 2009 and, through February 2011, had brought another five plants onstream, representing 46.8 MMtpa in new liquefaction capacity.
  • 20. 18 IGU World LNG Report -2010 Future growth can be expected from the Pacific Basin, driven by LNG developments in Australia: 76% of this capacity is currently under construction (44.7 MMtpa out of 59.1 MMtpa) in the Pacific Basin, 36.1 MMtpa of which is in Australia. There is also another 64.5 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity in the Pacific Basin which is either in the FEED phase, or has completed FEED. 4.5. LIQUEFACTION PROCESSES There were eight types of liquefaction processes in use at liquefaction plants by the end of 2010. The most extensively used process was APCI C3-MR, which accounted for 144 million tonnes (55%) of the global nameplate liquefaction capacity. FIGURE 17: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2010 ConocoPhillips APC Optimized C3MR/Split Cascade APC AP-X MR 12% 12% 12% Shell DMR 4% Linde MFC Other 2% 9% APC Split MR 0% Other APC C3MR 3% 55% Source: PFC Energy Air Products and the ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade® technology are the most widely used liquefaction technologies, present in 92% of global LNG capacity. Air Products technology is the most widely used, present in 80% of the LNG trains around the world in 2010 – roughly the same market share it had enjoyed for more than 30 years. ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade® technology is the second most widely used, present in about 12% of the world’s liquefaction plants. New processes are being employed at several projects. Shell’s Dual Mixed Refrigerant (DMR) process is being used at Sakhalin LNG in Russia, APCI’s AP-X technology at the Qatari mega-trains, and the Linde Mixed Fluid Cascade (MFC) process is in use at Snøhvit LNG in Norway. The Snøhvit LNG plant, which came online in 2007, uses a new process developed by Linde/Statoil. The Mixed Fluid Cascade (MFC) process comprises three refrigeration cycles in series. Novel project features include all electrically-driven compressors and direct use of seawater for cooling. Carbon dioxide present in the feedgas is removed and re-injected underground. ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum were the first to employ the APCI AP-X technology at the two-train, 15.6 MMtpa Qatargas II project. The same design was repeated for all the 7.8 MMtpa mega-trains in Qatar: RasGas III, Trains 2 and 3 and Qatargas III and IV. A nitrogen sub-cooling loop has been added to the C3/MR process to increase capacity for the same sized MCHE. It is also the first application of a GE Frame 9 gas turbine as a mechanical driver for the refrigerant compressors.
  • 21. IGU World LNG Report -2010 19 The Shell Dual Mixed Refrigerant (DMR) process is being used for the Sakhalin project in Russia. This novel process uses two Mixed Refrigerant cycles in series and the process is air cooled for process and environmental reasons. It is sufficiently flexible to support the wide range of ambient temperature experienced in the sub-arctic environment. Train capacity is 4.8 MMtpa. FIGURE 18: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2000-2010 300 Other 250 APC Split MR 200 Linde MFC Shell DMR mmtpa 150 ConocoPhillips 100 Optimized Cascade APC AP-X 50 APC C3MR/Split MR 0 APC C3MR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: PFC Energy Looking Ahead. . . Will the LNG industry be able to sanction projects at a rate necessary to keep pace with LNG demand growth? Significant liquefaction has been proposed, but how much and how fast the proposed capacity comes on-stream will be critical to enable meeting projected demand growth. Will floating liquefaction technology be a game-changer for the industry? Floating liquefaction technology has yet to be commercially proven, but success could open up previously stranded or non-commercial gas reserves.
  • 22. 20 IGU World LNG Report -2010 5. Special Report: Impact of Unconventional Gas on the LNG Industry The rapid transformation of the US natural gas market following the shale gas boom has already had an impact on the LNG industry, but this impact could grow if the US exports shale gas as LNG or if unconventional gas can have the same transformative impact on other markets. The shale gas boom in the US and its dampening impact on the country’s LNG demand has amplified the supply and demand balance in the market in 2009 and 2010. Yet the absence of the US as a significant LNG importer merely pushes back the time at which the LNG market tightens by a couple of years. The bigger question is whether other countries will replicate the success of the US – this could happen in some places, but in general the process will be a long one. 5.1. INTRODUCTION The following special report discusses the factors that led to the unconventional gas boom in the US, the potential for that to be replicated elsewhere and the resulting impact on LNG demand. It also addresses the potential for the US to export shale gas as LNG, another possible impact from the shale gas boom on the LNG market. 5.2. US SHALE GAS BOOM AND IMPACT ON US LNG DEMAND Since 1950, the US gas system has gone through five phases. First, production grew by an average 6% per annum from 1950 until it peaked in 1973. Second, production started to fall in 1974 until it bottomed out in 1986 – in that period, production declined by over 25%. Third, from 1987 to 2000, US production increased by a sustained 1.3% annually, leading to a significant recovery in output, but still below the 1973 peak. Fourth, production hit another peak in 2000 and started to decline by 1.2% per annum until 2005. From 2006 onward, production experienced its most dramatic growth in the last 40 years, growing by an average 3.6% per annum. In 2010, output was almost equal to the 1973 peak. The growth in gas production has been driven primarily by the ability to produce unconventional resources at ever cheaper rates. Unconventional gas includes shale, coal bed methane and tight gas which are all characterized by low natural permeability in the reservoir (commercial gas volumes do not “flow” naturally). Using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, companies have been able to create sufficient permeability to extract ever increasing commercial volumes from these reservoirs. FIGURE 19: US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION FIGURE 20: SHARE OF SHALE GAS IN US GAS PRODUCTION 700 25% 600 20% % Share of Total 500 400 15% bcm 300 10% 200 5% 100 0 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: EIA, PFC Energy Source: EIA
  • 23. IGU World LNG Report -2010 21 This growth in unconventional gas production has emerged as a shock to the LNG system for two reasons: first, it has made clear that the US will not need to import significant volumes of LNG over the next decade (at least); and second, there is growing uncertainty over whether other countries will be able to replicate the experience of the US and hence, reduce their own needs for imports. Together, these two prospects could reshape the LNG industry. 5.3. IMPLICATIONS OF US SHALE GAS BOOM ON LNG TRADE FLOWS AND PRICES Perhaps the most important global implication of this “shale gas revolution” is that the US no longer needs as much LNG as previously forecasted. One useful way to think about the importance of US LNG is to re-examine the forecasts done by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the US Department of Energy. In its 2005 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2005), the EIA was forecasting that the US would need to import as much as 70 bcm in 2010 to meet demand and offset the drop in indigenous production. Given actual LNG production in 2010, this would have amounted to a global market share of 23%, making the US the world’s second largest LNG market after Japan. To meet this projected rise in imports, there was a boom in US regasification capacity which increased sevenfold between 2002 and 2010. As the production growth story proved to be sustainable, those expectations shifted: by 2008, the EIA thought that by 2010, the US would only need 34 bcm. However, even those numbers turned out to be optimistic. In the 2011 AEO, the EIA has significantly downgraded its LNG import expectations and it effectively foresees no growth through 2025. FIGURE 21: EIA FORECASTS FOR US LNG IMPORTS FIGURE 22: US REGASIFCATION CAPACITY VS. IMPORTS 200 150 AEO 2005 US Regas Capacity AEO 2008 125 150 US LNG Imports AEO 2011 100 100 75 bcm bcm 50 50 25 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: EIA Source: PFC Energy This means that a significant source of demand for global LNG supplies has disappeared. Given that LNG investments have a long-lead time, there is a significant amount of LNG capacity that is coming online between 2009 and 2012 which was constructed based on the market expectations of 2005, whereby the US would become a major import market. This LNG had to find a new place to go – and in 2010, it found a home mostly in Europe as well as in emerging markets (Middle East and Latin America). Combined with a recession-induced drop in gas demand in 2009, the lack of more imports needed from the US produced a longer-than-expected glut in gas supplies. This glut has had two implications for gas pricing:
  • 24. 22 IGU World LNG Report -2010 First, the US market has become effectively disconnected from the broader global market. While Henry Hub has never correlated perfectly with prices in either Europe or Asia, the disparity between Henry Hub and prices elsewhere has been magnified in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Of particular interest is in 2010, where US gas prices were more than 50% lower than prices in Japan, while they are also being traded at a significant discount vis-à-vis UK gas prices (-33%). As a result of this disparity, a number of companies that own regasification terminals which are currently idle, are now proposing instead to start exporting LNG from North America. FIGURE 23: GAS PRICES, 2010 FIGURE 24: EUROPEAN GAS PRICES, OIL-LINKED VS. SPOT 12 16 NBP $10.41 14 Oil Linked 10 12 8 $6.55 10 $/MMBtu $/MMBtu 6 8 $4.37 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Japan UK USA 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: PFC Energy Source: PFC Energy Second, there has been growing pressure on the linkage between oil-linked and spot prices in Europe. In 2009, the average oil-linked contract price exceeded the spot price at NBP by ~$3.5/MMBtu. In 2010, the gap narrowed only slightly, reaching $2.16/MMBtu. In 2010, the gap narrowed and by the end of 2010 it had disappeared at least in the short term – but there have been two distinct byproducts of this resulting disparity. First, buyers have sought to renegotiate terms with sellers. In general, buyers have succeeded in linking some of the volumes they purchase to spot prices rather than oil; they have also achieved a relaxation of take-or-pay (TOP) provisions. Second, several new entrants have sought to procure gas directly from the spot market (pipeline or LNG). Combined with the existence of TOP clauses, this competitive pressure has further squeezed incumbent importers who are usually saddled with higher-priced gas that they cannot market. Thinking about the importance of US shale gas from a more structural perspective, there are two questions to consider. First, is the US shale gas revolution sustainable? If so, at what price is shale gas viable and what risks are associated with its production? If it is indeed both abundant and cheap to produce, then the US could easily emerge as a major exporter of LNG within the next decade. Second is the question of whether the absence of US LNG import demand has produced a short or long-term glut in supply. This is the controversial subject in the gas world today with two camps – those who think the glut is cyclical, and those who think it is structural – having several data points to support their argument. The important question to ask is: even if one excludes the US as an importing country, does the global supply and demand balance tighten sooner or later?