Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Аналітичні звіти та доробки WNA щодо ядерного паливного циклу

17 views

Published on

Презентація старшого радника World Nuclear Association Філіпа Косте в рамках Міжнародної конференції з нагоди 10-річчя АУЯФ "Український ядерний форум 2019: ядерна енергетика - стан та тенденції розвитку"

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Аналітичні звіти та доробки WNA щодо ядерного паливного циклу

  1. 1. World Nuclear Association Reports and contribution to the Fuel Cycle Philippe Costes Senior Advisor, World Nuclear Association Ukrainian Nuclear Forum 2019
  2. 2. 2 The World Nuclear Association Represents the global nuclear industry 185 Members
  3. 3. 3 Nuclear Industry Cooperation We provide an invaluable forum and commercial meeting place for our members, who are leaders and specialists in all aspects of the worldwide nuclear industry. Nuclear Information We pride ourselves on providing trustworthy, thoroughly-researched information on nuclear power via our website, which serves as the world’s most comprehensive nuclear information source, via World Nuclear News, and through reports and publications. Nuclear Communication With a goal to increase global support for nuclear energy among key stakeholders and decision makers, we identify important energy debates and strategically represent nuclear energy’s interests. Nuclear Training Through the World Nuclear University programmes, we work with IAEA, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and WANO to enhance nuclear education and build nuclear leadership to secure the future of the industry. The World Nuclear Association What do we do?
  4. 4. 4 We develop industry positions on the issues that matter through our Members Groups We work with industry
  5. 5. 5 We inform on nuclear energy • Free daily nuclear news service • 185+ papers in our online Information Library • We produce key publications including: - The Nuclear Fuel Report - World Nuclear Supply Chain report - Industry reports http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/
  6. 6. 6 • World Nuclear Association Symposium every September in London We hold global events Delegates 600 39 International speakers Countries represented 35 • World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference jointly organised with NEI in April, rotating in Europe, Asia and USA • World Nuclear Association Spotlight conferences in countries developing nuclear energy – Indonesia, Poland, Brazil,
  7. 7. 7 Founding supporters: IAEA, WANO, OECD-NEA and World Nuclear Association We train the leaders of tomorrow • Summer Institute • Short courses • School on Radiation Technologies • Nuclear Olympiad • Executive Enhancement Course • Extended Leadership Development Workshop http://www.world-nuclear-university.org/imis20/wnu/
  8. 8. 8 We represent the nuclear industry’s interests where the energy debate is taking place and deliver targeted information to key influencers and key international forums Influencing the energy debate Decision-makers Nuclear organisations Nuclear industry International media
  9. 9. 9 New reports, database and publication http://www.world-nuclear.org/
  10. 10. 10 Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community At least 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by 2050 To meet the growing demand for a clean and reliable low-carbon mix. 25% of electricity supply in 2050 www.world-nuclear.org/harmony
  11. 11. 11 Key report and contribution to Fuel Cycle The Nuclear Fuel Report
  12. 12. 12 Fuel Report Working Group: Co-chairs and chairs of the sub-groups Joint chairs Fredrik Leijonhufvud Vattenfall Fletcher Newton TENAM Chairs of sub-groups Pierre Beaudoin AREVA Emmanuel Bouyge EDF Nikko Collida ConverDyn Frank Hahne Fluor-BWXT Portsmouth Rolf Kwasny Consultant Francisco Tarin ENUSA
  13. 13. 13 Project methodology and assumptions Three demand scenarios: • Reference case • Lower case • Upper case Generic assumptions underlie each scenario: • Nuclear economics • Impact on climate change debate • Electricity market structure • Public Acceptance
  14. 14. 14 World nuclear generating capacity scenarios*, GWe (2017 Fuel Report) * 2017 capacity excludes temporarily closed Japanese reactors. (GWe) 326 GWe 482 GWe 625 GWe
  15. 15. Reference case capacity 2017/2035, GWe (2017 Fuel Report)
  16. 16. 16 World uranium requirements to 2035, tU (tU) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Lower (-0.6%) Reference (2.0%) Upper (3.4%) 58,000 tU 94,000 tU 122,000 tU
  17. 17. 17 Uranium requirements vs supply Reference Scenario • The amount of production expected from mines under development, planned mines and prospective mines has fallen away almost completely since 2015. • In the Reference Scenario, the gap between projected demand and supply that opens up after 2023 would need to be filled by production from ‘reserve projects’. • Continued inventory accumulation is to be expected up to 2022 some of which will be available to the market (tU)
  18. 18. 18 Secondary supplies outlook (2017 Fuel Report)  Global commercial inventories 2016 – 250,000 tU : • Utility inventories – 146,000 tU • Uranium producer inventories • Other fuel cycle participants’ inventories  Government inventories (US DOE ̴100,000 tUeq)  Fuel banks (US, France, UK, Russia, Kazakhstan)  Highly enriched uranium (US, Russia)  Recycling of materials from reprocessing  Re-enrichment of depleted uranium (1,218,000 tU)
  19. 19. 19 Secondary supplies scenarios to 2035 (2017 Fuel Report) • US DOE excess inventory continues to be disposed of at approx.2ktU/year • Excess enrichment capacity used for underfeeding leading to as much as 7ktU/year • ERU and MOX contribute approx. 2ktUeq/year rising over time • Additional secondary supplies are assumed from Russia of 1-3ktU / year from mid-2020s (tU)
  20. 20. 20 Uranium requirements vs supply Reference Scenario (2017 Fuel Report) • The amount of production expected from mines under development, planned mines and prospective mines has fallen away almost completely since 2015. • In the Reference Scenario, the gap between projected demand and supply that opens up after 2023 would need to be filled by production from ‘reserve projects’. • Continued inventory accumulation is to be expected up to 2022 some of which will be available to the market (tU)
  21. 21. 21 Uranium requirements vs supply Upper and Lower Scenarios (2017 Fuel Report) (tU) (tU) Upper Case Lower Case
  22. 22. 22 Conversion market outlook (2017 Fuel Report) Capacity should be sufficient to meet Reference Scenario demand until 2030 Key Assumptions • Russia and China are able to meet domestic conversion requirements • Capacity utilisation is readily increased tU
  23. 23. 23 Enrichment market outlook (2017 Fuel Report) • Enrichment capacity is more than sufficient in the medium term. • China is assumed to build capacity to meet domestic requirements. • American Centrifuge Plant, GLE and Eagle Rock are not included. • Allowance made for obsolescent centrifuges. • Incremental centrifuge capacity is relatively easy to add. ThousandSWU
  24. 24. 24 Fuel fabrication market outlook (2017 Fuel Report) LWR fabrication demand, tHM • Global fabrication capacity is sufficient to meet demand but the market is highly segmented and bottlenecks for particular fuel designs could occur.
  25. 25. 25 Fuel Report results and the Harmony goal GWe TWh 2014 2050 0 0 200 400 600 800 25% of generation 11% of generation 396 GWe 1250 GWe 10000 TWh Additions 1000 GWe 8000 TWh Retirements 150 GWe 2411 TWh 1200 1000 11000 7000 5000 3000 9000 1000 Source: World Nuclear Association. Growth required for nuclear energy to supply 25% of electricity in 2050 under demand forecast of two-degree scenario (see IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015. Assumption: 91% capacity factor)
  26. 26. 26 - Since COP 24, Nuclear power is considered as needed in order to achieve successfully an affordable energy decarbonisation by 2050 - Reactor technologies? Off the shelf existing technologies – mainly large scale reactors -, providing the Industry masters time and budget. - Front-end fuel cycle? - Next decade will need exploration and mining developments for reference scenario and even more for Harmony goal. - Time to Market is key - … Look for the 2019 Nuclear Fuel Report ! Conclusions
  27. 27. Thank You - дякую вам

×